亿纬锂能 20250927 摘要 亿纬锂能储能电芯出货量全球第二，2025 年预计超 80GWh，2026 年 预计超 120GWh，受益于国内自主配政策和海外市场需求，储能业务呈 高增长态势，但行业增速预计将从 2025 年的 60%-70%降至 2026 年 的 40%左右。 动力电池方面，亿纬锂能 2025 年产能利用率接近满产，预计出货 50GWh，2026 年预计达 90GWh，其中大圆柱电池为主要增量，受益 于结构优化、规模效应及加工率提升，盈利能力有望显著提升，同时固 态电池技术也在积极布局。 预计亿纬锂能 2026 年整体出货量将超过 200GWh，若每瓦时利润增加 1 分钱，将增加 20 亿元利润。2025 年整体盈利预计 40-47 亿元， 2026 年利润有望超过 80 亿元，盈利弹性较大。 亿纬锂能通过全路线布局策略，在动力和储能领域迅速崛起，与 SK 合 作三元软包，并逐步发展三元方形、碟片肌理、大圆柱等差异化路线， 目前在全球储能领域份额迅速提升至第二名。 Q&A 对于亿纬锂能的核心观点是什么？ 亿纬锂能是东吴证券近期特别强推的标的，核心逻辑在于公司动储业务的经营 拐点。预计明年（ ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the energy storage sector, highlighting the current supply-demand dynamics and future growth prospects in both domestic and international markets [1][2][3][6][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-Demand Tension**: The energy storage battery market is experiencing significant supply-demand tension, particularly in the cell segment. Major manufacturers like CATL and EVE Energy are operating at full capacity, with production schedules extending into early 2026. Price increases of 5% to 10% have been reported, with some new orders seeing even higher price hikes [2][4]. - **Price Recovery in Energy Storage Systems**: Recent price adjustments in energy storage systems have been noted, with leading integrators like Haibo and Sunshine New Energy reporting increases of 3 to 4 cents, which is higher than the increase in battery prices. This aligns with national policies promoting fair pricing and is expected to lead to further price recovery in Q4 2025 [4][11]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Pricing**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surpassed 55,800 RMB per ton, reflecting a more than 10% increase from mid-2025. Despite a decline in lithium carbonate prices, there is still potential for further price increases due to optimistic demand forecasts [5][11]. - **Market Dynamics in Membrane and Iron Lithium**: The membrane market is stabilizing after a period of oversupply, with leading companies achieving full production. The iron lithium market is also seeing robust demand, with companies like Youneng and Fulin operating at or above capacity, indicating potential price recovery to support loss-making firms [5][11]. Future Demand Projections - **Domestic Demand Growth**: Domestic energy storage demand is expected to exceed national planning targets, with a projected increase of over 50%. The overall incremental demand in the next three years is estimated to reach 600 GWh, compared to last year's installed capacity of 100 GWh [3][7]. - **International Market Trends**: The European market is experiencing a doubling of demand due to energy shortages, while the U.S. data center storage demand is also growing significantly. By 2030, global data center lithium battery shipments are expected to approach 300 GWh, up from less than 200 GWh last year [8][9]. Investment Opportunities - **Key Players in the Battery Sector**: Leading companies such as CATL, EVE Energy, and XINWANDA are highlighted as key investment opportunities. CATL's projected earnings for next year are over 90 billion RMB, with a valuation of around 20 times earnings, indicating over 20% upside potential [11]. - **Material and PCS Companies**: Material companies like Hunan Youneng and Tianqi are also noted for their potential earnings growth. Power Conversion System (PCS) companies such as Sunon Electric and Jinlang Technology are expected to benefit from the overall growth in the energy storage sector [11]. Additional Important Insights - **Policy Impacts**: The "Document No. 136" and non-mandatory exit policies are favorable for independent storage development, with clearer revenue mechanisms emerging. This is expected to drive the release of independent storage capacity and improve the utilization of renewable energy sources [3][6]. - **Green Power Direct Connection Projects**: Domestic green power direct connection projects are anticipated to play a significant role in the energy storage market, with over 10 projects expected to be planned by 2026 [10]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the energy storage industry.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the rapid development and commercialization of sulfide all-solid-state batteries, with significant advancements expected by 2030 [2][3][4] - The energy density of sulfide all-solid-state batteries is projected to increase from 350 Wh/kg in 2025 to 500 Wh/kg by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.4%, surpassing the progress of liquid lithium batteries [2] - Key milestones include achieving large-scale production by 2026, one year ahead of the original plan, indicating unexpected technological breakthroughs [3] Group 2 - The competition between Chinese and Japanese companies in the sulfide battery sector is intensifying, with China expected to file three times more patents than Japan in 2024, although Japan still holds 40% of global foundational patents [4] - Domestic policies are driving advancements, with a target set for 2027 for vehicle integration, and many companies are ahead of schedule, such as the 60Ah cell expected to be produced by 2025 [5] Group 3 - The localization of lithium sulfide production is crucial for supply chain security, reducing reliance on high-cost materials from Japan and South Korea, and aiming to lower electrolyte costs to $100/kg [6] - The high safety features of sulfide batteries make them suitable for specialized applications in aviation and military sectors, addressing range anxiety in electric vehicles with a projected 400 Wh/kg version by 2028 [6] Group 4 - The Chinese government has committed over 2 billion yuan to solid-state battery research as part of its 2025 New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan, while the EU prioritizes sulfide technology in its Battery 2030+ initiative [8] - The period from 2025 to 2030 is identified as a critical window for the transition of sulfide batteries from laboratory to mass production, with a projected global market size of $20 billion by 2030 and a compound annual growth rate exceeding 45% [9] Group 5 - The event titled "2025 Starting Point Solid-State Battery Industry Annual Conference and Solid-State Battery Golden Ding Award Ceremony" will take place on November 8, 2025, in Guangzhou, featuring discussions on key technological advancements and industry standards [10][11] - The agenda includes the release of a roadmap for global sulfide solid-state battery technology and the establishment of the first all-solid-state battery industry alliance [12]

活动地点： 广州南沙国际会展中心（2楼船厅及广州厅） 活动规模： 展商规模200+、参会企业2000+、专业观众20000+ 同期活动： 2025起点固态电池金鼎奖颁奖典礼、SSBA固态电池产业联盟理事会 第一批展商及赞助商： 金钠科技/茹天科技/海四达钠星/融捷能源/易事特钠电/泰和科技/隐功科技/科迈罗/国科炭美/晟钠新能/中钠能源/乔岳智能/津工能源/科达新能 源/时代思康/富钠能源/极电特能/华普森/瑞扬新能源/亮见钠电/叁星飞荣/珠海纳甘新能源/皓升新能源/扬广科技/银川苏银产业园/兆钠新能源/精诚模具/儒特股份/希 倍动力/先导干燥/瓦时动力/博粤新材料/苏州翼动新能/亿隆能源/钠创新能源/瑞森新材料/海裕百特/凯德利/长篙新材/清研电子/孚悦科技等 倒计时39天 CINE2025固态电池展暨固态电池行业年会 主办单位： 起点固态电池、起点锂电、SSBA固态电池联盟 协办单位及固态年会总冠名： 茹天科技 活动时间： 2025年11月6-8日 SERAPH 萨拉弗- 9月20日，亿纬锂能匈牙利基地迎来新节点 —— 机电设备正式进场，标志项目土建工程进入关键阶段。 项目现场，亿纬锂能高级副总裁王世峰介 ...

2025第十一届起点锂电行业年会暨起点研究十周年庆典 2025起点 用户侧储能 电池技术论坛 （同期 2025第十一届 锂电 金鼎奖颁奖典礼） 时间： 2025年12月17-19日 地点：深圳 活动背景及意义 一 电池方面： 1）2025年初，宝马宣布大圆柱电池2026年即将装车，引发行业加速布局46系大圆 柱电池热潮；2）2025年3月，工信部发布《电动汽车用动力蓄电池安全要求》（GB38031— 2025）（新国标），引发行业对动力电池性能广发讨论；3）多家企业2025年全极耳圆柱电池 已开始量产，全极耳的高倍率、长寿命优势未来有望广泛应用在新能源汽车、电动工具、电动两 轮车、智能家居等领域；4）固态电池其高安全性、高能量密度优势，被誉为下一代新型电池， 2025年热度持续维持在高位； 储能方面： 1）2025国家取消强制配储政策，引发业内对储能电池未来需求的担忧；2） 314Ah逐步替代280Ah成为主流电芯，同时宁德时代、亿纬锂能、海辰储能等企业发布500Ah 以上容量电芯，储能电芯逐步往大容量趋势发展；3）2025年美国加征关税政策，对全球储能行 业造成一定冲击； 低空经济、人形机器人等新兴应用场景 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese lithium battery industry is accelerating towards high-quality development, with significant investments and project expansions in various segments, particularly in lithium batteries and solid-state batteries, indicating a strategic shift towards advanced production capabilities and market positioning [4][7][10]. Investment and Project Expansion - From January to August 2025, the Chinese lithium battery industry chain signed and initiated 183 new projects with a total planned investment of 400 billion yuan, showcasing a trend of "accelerated high-end expansion and clearance of low-end capacity" [4][7]. - The expansion projects include 54 for lithium batteries and 23 for solid-state batteries, representing 30% and 13% of the total planned expansion projects, respectively [4]. - Major investments are led by top companies like CATL, BYD, and Enjie, focusing on traditional segments, while emerging sectors like solid-state and sodium batteries attract new capital and startups [7][10]. Regional Distribution - The expansion projects are primarily concentrated in East and Central China, with significant activities in the Yangtze River Delta and Hubei-Hunan regions, leveraging local resources and manufacturing capabilities [10]. - Internationally, projects in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Hungary are gaining traction, driven by favorable geopolitical conditions and local demand for electric vehicle components [10][11]. Specific Investment Highlights - The planned investment in the lithium battery segment exceeds 40% of the total, with solid-state batteries emerging as a new growth area with a planned investment of 35 billion yuan [7][8]. - Notable projects include a 331 billion yuan investment in Guizhou for phosphate iron and lithium production, and a 243 billion yuan investment by Qingshan Group in another Guizhou project [8][10]. - The negative electrode materials sector is also seeing significant investment, with 28.6 billion yuan planned, focusing on technology upgrades and overseas expansion [8]. Emerging Technologies and Trends - Solid-state batteries are becoming the most popular investment track, driven by technological advancements and accelerated mass production [7][8]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more sophisticated materials and production techniques, with companies like Dongchi New Energy planning a 5.2 billion yuan sodium battery project [7][10].

Investment Expansion - Chuangneng New Energy has officially commenced construction of an 80GWh lithium battery project in Yichang, Hubei, with an investment of no more than 9.971 billion yuan [1] - EVE Energy's Hungarian base is expected to be completed by 2026 with a total investment of 9.971 billion yuan [5] - A lithium iron phosphate battery project in Heze, Shandong, has been put into production with a total investment of 4.9 billion yuan [4] - A cylindrical lithium battery project in Sichuan is set to begin production by the end of the year with a total investment of 6 billion yuan [6] - A battery-grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, has been completed with an investment of approximately 1.8 billion yuan [7] Project Launches - The Sichuan cylindrical lithium battery project aims for an annual production capacity of over 12 billion units, contributing to a projected annual output value of 5 billion yuan [6] - The Jiangsu Wujiang project by Shanghai Kete New Materials is set to invest up to 1 billion yuan in the production of high-performance products for the new energy vehicle sector [2] - A 10 billion yuan energy storage system integration project has been signed in Nantong, Jiangsu, with an expected annual taxable sales of 3 billion yuan upon full production [2] Production and Capacity - The Yichang lithium battery project is expected to create over 6,000 jobs and generate an annual output value of 22 billion yuan [1] - The Sichuan project will become the largest cylindrical lithium battery production base in the western region, with an expected annual output value of 5 billion yuan [6] - The newly completed battery-grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang is part of Tianqi Lithium's five-year strategic plan [7] Mergers and Acquisitions - Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a 21% stake in Sichuan Qicheng Mining for 1.456 billion yuan, increasing its ownership to 70% [16] - The acquisition involves a high-grade lithium mine with a production capacity of 3 million tons per year and a lithium resource of 989,600 tons [16] Financing and Capital Raising - Tianci Materials has submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with plans to expand its production network internationally [17] - Ganfeng Lithium plans to raise up to 2.5 billion yuan through equity financing to enhance its lithium ecosystem [19] Strategic Partnerships - Tianqi Materials has secured a contract to supply over 800,000 tons of electrolyte products to Ruipu Lanjun, ensuring a steady supply until the end of 2030 [20] - A strategic cooperation agreement has been signed between Xupai Power and Pioneering Technology for the supply of over 1GWh of battery materials [20]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the broader market in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - In H1 2025, the lithium battery supply chain showed resilience with significant growth in demand for electric vehicles, leading to a notable increase in revenue and profit. The total revenue for the lithium battery supply chain reached 400.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.74%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 37.278 billion yuan, up 30.38% year-on-year [1][14]. - In Q2 2025, the overall performance of the lithium battery supply chain continued to improve, with revenue of 213.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.81% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.19%. The gross profit margin was 19.46%, showing a slight year-on-year decline but a quarter-on-quarter increase [1][14]. Summary by Sections Battery Segment - In H1 2025, the battery segment achieved a revenue of 263.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.34%, with a net profit of 33.077 billion yuan, up 27.37% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 139.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.58% [2][22]. Positive Electrode Materials - In H1 2025, the positive electrode segment saw revenue of 56.445 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.91%, with a net loss of 186 million yuan, narrowing by 76.50% compared to the previous year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 30.473 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.82%, achieving breakeven in net profit [2][28]. Negative Electrode Materials - The negative electrode segment reported revenue of 31.785 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.73%, with a net profit of 2.493 billion yuan, up 38.94%. In Q2 2025, revenue was 17.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.88% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.16% [3][34]. Other Segments - The electrolyte segment had a revenue of 12.252 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.49%, with a net profit of 834 million yuan, up 9.49%. In Q2 2025, revenue was 6.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.43%, but net profit decreased by 2.58% [10][39]. - The separator segment faced pressure with a revenue of 7.661 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.02%, but a significant drop in net profit by 98.63%. In Q2 2025, revenue was 4.043 billion yuan, with a net loss of 650 million yuan [10][43]. - The auxiliary materials segment showed improvement, with structural components achieving revenue of 6.290 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.92%, and net profit of 530 million yuan, up 22.05% [10][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively monitoring midstream material companies for investment opportunities as their performance is expected to continue improving. Additionally, emerging technologies such as solid-state batteries and high-voltage lithium iron phosphate are rapidly developing, presenting further investment opportunities [9].

Battery - Chuangneng New Energy launched a new generation 588Ah energy storage battery with an energy density of 190Wh/kg and a volume energy density of 419Wh/L, achieving an energy efficiency of 96.5%. The company plans to have over 200GWh of production capacity, with small-scale production expected in Q2 2026 and full-scale production in Q3 2026 [1] - EVE Energy's first large-capacity sodium-ion battery energy storage system has successfully entered commercial operation, featuring a cycle life of over 30,000 times and operational capabilities in a temperature range of -40℃ to +60℃, significantly reducing lifecycle carbon emissions by over 42% compared to lithium-ion batteries [2][3] Materials - Greenme's Qingmeibang park has opened a nickel electroplating production line with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons, achieving a nickel plate product purity of over 99.97%, contributing to a total global production capacity of 60,000 tons for Greenme [5][6] - Tianqi Lithium's battery-grade lithium hydroxide project, with a total investment of approximately 1.8 billion yuan, has been completed and put into production in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone [7] - Tibet Mining's battery-grade lithium carbonate project has officially commenced production, utilizing a complex membrane separation and MVR lithium extraction process, marking a significant achievement in challenging high-altitude conditions [8] Equipment - Mannesmann has completed the dual-line product layout for solid-state batteries, with multiple devices shipped and customer validation achieved [10] Battery Recycling - A project for processing waste lithium batteries has been publicly announced, aiming to handle approximately 11,000 tons of waste batteries annually using a low-temperature physical crushing technology developed by Southern University of Science and Technology, which avoids the pollution and high energy consumption associated with traditional methods [11]

2025第十一届起点锂电行业年会暨起点研究十周年庆典 2025起点 用户侧储能 电池技术论坛 电池方面： 1）2025年初，宝马宣布大圆柱电池2026年即将装车，引发行业加速布局46系大圆 柱电池热潮；2）2025年3月，工信部发布《电动汽车用动力蓄电池安全要求》（GB38031— 2025）（新国标），引发行业对动力电池性能广发讨论；3）多家企业2025年全极耳圆柱电池 已开始量产，全极耳的高倍率、长寿命优势未来有望广泛应用在新能源汽车、电动工具、电动两 轮车、智能家居等领域；4）固态电池其高安全性、高能量密度优势，被誉为下一代新型电池， 2025年热度持续维持在高位； 储能方面： 1）2025国家取消强制配储政策，引发业内对储能电池未来需求的担忧；2） 314Ah逐步替代280Ah成为主流电芯，同时宁德时代、亿纬锂能、海辰储能等企业发布500Ah 以上容量电芯，储能电芯逐步往大容量趋势发展；3）2025年美国加征关税政策，对全球储能行 业造成一定冲击； 低空经济、人形机器人等新兴应用场景： 2025年年初宇树机器人在春晚的登台，带动人形机器 人火爆出圈，人形机器人用电池成为各家电池企业争相布局新方向；各地 ...