二、清洁电力转换设备行业发展现状 内容概要：清洁电力转换设备是连接和优化清洁能源与传统电网或负载之间的"智能桥梁"和"交通枢 纽"。各国政策强力推动风电、光伏等新能源装机量持续增长，直接拉动了上游转换设备的需求。2024 年全球清洁电力转换设备市场规模724亿美元，其中，储能系统284亿美元，占38.02%；光伏逆变器220 亿美元，占29.45%；风电变流器19亿美元，占2.54%；氢能电解槽17亿美元，占2.28%；新能源汽车电 控及电源系统与充电设备158亿美元，占21.15%；AIDC电源49亿美元，占6.56%。预计2025年全球清洁 电力转换设备市场规模将达到916亿美元，其中，储能系统约365亿美元，约占39.93%；光伏逆变器约 249亿美元，约占27.24%；风电变流器约24亿美元，约占2.63%；氢能电解槽约48亿美元，约占5.25%； 新能源汽车电控及电源系统与充电设备约157亿美元，约占17.18%；AIDC电源约71亿美元，约占 7.77%。 上市企业：固德威[688390]、阳光电源[300274]、锦浪科技[300763]、首航新能[301658]、科华数据 [002335]、上 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **US-China Tech Rivalry**: The discussion focused on the ongoing technological competition between the US and China, particularly in the energy sector and its implications for industrialization and computing [1][2]. Core Insights - **China's Power Demand Management**: - China has successfully managed high power demand growth for approximately two decades, with installed capacity increasing about 7 times since 2005, from around 500 GW to 3,400 GW [3]. - Despite slower GDP growth, power demand has continued to grow at an annual rate of 5-7% [3]. - The expansion of coal capacity has been primarily for peaking purposes, while renewable energy sources have seen aggressive build-outs, with over 600 GW of solar and 200 GW of wind capacity added [3]. - **US Power Capacity Growth**: - The US has experienced significantly slower capacity growth, with only a 40% increase over the past 20 years [4]. - Recent growth has been linked to industrial policy and new manufacturing capacity, but challenges such as permitting delays and supply bottlenecks could hinder future growth [4]. - **Electrification and Renewable Energy**: - The increasing share of renewables in the power mix and rising electrification are expected to create unique opportunities in energy storage systems (ESS) [4]. - Global ESS installations are forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27% from 2025 to 2030, with China expected to account for about 50% of all utility-scale additions by 2030 [4]. - **Power Electronics Opportunities**: - The enabling solutions across power electronics and equipment suppliers are seen as second and third order beneficiaries of industrialization and electrification trends in both the US and China [4]. - Japanese and Korean firms, such as Hyundai Electric and Hyushong Electric, are expected to gain market share in this sector [4]. Company-Specific Insights - **Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL)**: - Price target (PT) set based on 2026E EPS of RMB20.0 and a PEG of 1.0x, with an underlying EPS CAGR of 26% from 2025 to 2028 [9]. - Risks include weaker electric vehicle (EV) sales, higher production costs, and potential loss of market share [9]. - **Kehua Data Co., Ltd.**: - Valued at a PT of RMB86.07, implying a 40x 2026E P/E ratio [10]. - Risks include weaker-than-expected domestic AI capital expenditures and increased competition [10]. - **Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co., Ltd.**: - Valuation based on a PEG of 0.75x, with an underlying EPS CAGR of 44% from 2025 to 2027 [11]. - Risks include fluctuations in EV demand and capacity expansion rates [11]. - **Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd.**: - Price target of RMB233.96 based on a 25x FY26E P/E [12]. - Risks include lower-than-expected solar installations and growth in energy storage systems [12]. - **Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd.**: - Base-case price target of RMB76 based on a 2026E P/E of 50x [13]. - Risks include shifts in global power battery demand and geopolitical actions against Chinese battery companies [13]. Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the importance of energy demand in driving technological leadership and innovation across various fields, including computing and manufacturing [2]. - The contrasting dynamics of the power sectors in the US and China highlight the strategic importance of energy management in the tech rivalry [2][4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) installation is projected to reach 360 GWh in 2026, representing a 33% year-over-year (YoY) increase. This growth is driven by favorable policies, renewable energy curtailment pressures, and affordable battery prices [1][9] - For China, BESS installations are expected to be 147 GWh in 2025 and 200 GWh in 2026, reflecting YoY growth of 45% and 36% respectively [1][32] - The U.S. is forecasted to see a 55% YoY growth in BESS installations in 2025, followed by a 6% increase in 2026 [1][9] - European BESS installations are anticipated to grow by 30% and 51% YoY in 2025 and 2026 respectively [1][9] Battery Shipment Forecast - ESS battery shipments are expected to reach 540 GWh in 2025 and 760 GWh in 2026, marking a 79% and 41% YoY increase respectively [2][9] - The conversion rate from battery shipment to installation is projected to decline from approximately 60% in 2023-24 to around 50% in 2025 and 2026 due to inventory and project redundancy [2][11] Lithium Market Insights - A deficit in lithium supply is anticipated in 2026, with prices expected to rise to approximately $16,250 per ton, equivalent to RMB 110-115k per ton in China [3][50] - The lithium market is expected to shift from surplus to a modest deficit in 2026, driven by strong ESS demand [49][50] - Monthly lithium deficits have exceeded 10% recently, with significant inventory drawdowns [56] Company Recommendations - **Sungrow**: Rated as a Buy due to its 12% global market share in ESS, expected gross profit contribution of 54% in 2025, and strong brand image [4][44] - **CATL**: Also rated as a Buy, benefiting from solid growth in ESS and EV battery markets, with projected net profits of RMB 70 billion in 2025 [4][45] - **Shenzhen Dynanonic**: Rated as a Buy based on potential increases in LFP processing [4] Market Dynamics - The global BESS landscape is fragmented, with Tesla holding a 13% market share and Sungrow at 12% [12][19] - The U.S. market is led by Tesla with a 39% share, followed by Sungrow at 10% [22][19] - Upside risks to battery shipment forecasts include geopolitical tensions and inventory accumulation, while downside risks involve U.S. tariffs and constraints on cleantech projects [13] Additional Insights - The Chinese BESS market accounted for approximately 50% of global installations in 2024, with significant contributions from utility-scale projects [31] - The government aims for 180 GW of cumulative new energy storage installations in China by 2027, indicating substantial future growth [31][32] - The BESS market is expected to see a 25% CAGR from 2024 to 2030 in China, supported by government policies and market mechanisms [32] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the growth trajectory of the BESS industry, the dynamics of the lithium market, and specific company recommendations.

Core Viewpoint - The continuous emergence of "GWh-level" energy storage orders overseas demonstrates that leading Chinese energy storage companies are becoming a key force in changing the global energy storage landscape [2] Group 1: Overview of Energy Storage Orders - From 2025 to present, the top 10 energy storage giants have signed overseas orders totaling 166.26 GWh, which is 2.04 times the new installed capacity of the overseas energy storage market in 2024 (81.5 GWh) [2] - Australia leads with an order volume of 41.16 GWh, followed by the Middle East with 38 GWh, and Asia (excluding China) with 33.642 GWh [2] - All top 10 energy storage companies have overseas order volumes exceeding 4 GWh, with six companies surpassing 10 GWh. The top three are CATL (52.9 GWh), Hicharge (34.01 GWh), and BYD (19.7 GWh) [2][3] Group 2: Company-Specific Orders - CATL has secured 52.9 GWh of orders across Australia, Asia, the Middle East, and North America [3] - Hicharge has 34.01 GWh of orders in Asia, the Middle East, Australia, North America, and Europe [3] - BYD has 19.7 GWh of orders in the Middle East, South America, Europe, and North America [3] Group 3: Potential Risks and Market Dynamics - Many overseas orders are merely intention orders, with execution cycles lasting 2-3 years or longer. The global energy storage industry is facing unprecedented challenges, and the surge in overseas orders may mask underlying risks [5] - The bankruptcy of Powin, a former top 3 global energy storage system integrator, could impact the globalization efforts of many companies. Powin has built and is constructing energy storage systems exceeding 17 GWh globally [5][6] - The future of global industry development and policy may lead to more overseas projects being delayed or terminated, significantly affecting the globalization of the energy storage industry [5][6] Group 4: Financial Health and Industry Competition - Maintaining financial health is crucial as the industry faces intense competition. Historically, financially healthy companies are more likely to survive industry downturns, while financially weak companies may face severe challenges, including debt defaults or bankruptcy [7] - Companies must prioritize survival before expanding their global market influence and reach [7]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 7 日 [Table_Title] 看好变压器&燃气轮机海外需求，机器人产业化推 进 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 随着海内外企业布局加速&AI 技术突破，人形机器有望迎来量产落 地时点。在降本需求的驱动下，人形机器人核心零部件的国产替代 需求强烈，市场空间广阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有望深度受 益。灵巧手、大脑和轻量化是人形机器人商业化落地的关键环节， 重点看好技术迭代和产业演进领先的国内生产厂商。 多家车企公布 11 月新能源汽车交付/销量 我们认为，在行业旺季趋势下，11月国内多数车企实现新能源汽车 交付/销量环比增长，全年新能源汽车表现亮眼。明年展望来看， 国内新能源汽车预计保持稳定增长，商用车电动化率提升叠加单车 带电量的增加预计带动动力电池需求较快增长。叠加国内外储能高 景气度，预计全年锂电池出货同比增长明显。在前期供给过剩导致 价格大幅下跌的背景下，动力及储能电池产业链多数企业出现亏 损。在"反内卷"趋势下，叠加海内外动储需求共振，电池及材料 环节迎 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including Green City China, Jianfa International Group, New China Life Insurance, and Bank of Communications [12][42][44]. Core Views - The report highlights the increasing pressure on corporate earnings in the short term, with a focus on the potential for export recovery in the coming year [9][10]. - The real estate sector is facing downward pressure, but there are expectations for policy support to alleviate burdens on homebuyers [11]. - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing an optimized market structure, with high growth potential in the securities industry [15]. - The banking sector is expected to see accelerated valuation reassessment driven by strong allocation forces [17]. - The new energy sector is at a bottoming phase, with attention on marginal changes in new technologies [20]. - The machinery sector is approaching mass production of humanoid robots, focusing on core supply chain targets [25]. - The military industry is expected to improve, with a focus on military trade, internal installations, and military-to-civilian transitions [27]. - The light industry is emphasizing opportunities in overseas manufacturing and high-quality domestic consumption [30]. Summary by Sections Real Estate - The real estate sector is under increasing downward pressure, particularly in core cities, with expectations for policy measures to lower home purchase thresholds [11]. - Key companies like Green City China and Jianfa International Group are highlighted for their strong land acquisition and sales performance, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 [12][14]. Non-Bank Financial - The securities industry is expected to maintain high growth, with significant improvements in insurance companies' performance [15][16]. - New China Life Insurance is noted for its leading elasticity and potential for growth in the equity market [16]. Banking - The report emphasizes the ongoing valuation repair in the banking sector, particularly for large state-owned banks and city commercial banks [17][19]. - Bank of Communications is highlighted for its low PB valuation compared to peers, indicating potential for significant upside [19]. New Energy - The new energy sector is identified as having established a bottom, with a focus on solar, storage, and lithium battery technologies [20][21]. - Companies like Sunshine Power and Siling Co. are recommended for their growth potential in the energy storage market [22][23]. Machinery - The humanoid robot sector is approaching mass production, with companies like Hengli Hydraulic expected to benefit from this trend [25][26]. Military - The military sector is projected to see upward trends in military trade and civilian applications of military technology [27][28]. Light Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas manufacturing and high-quality domestic consumption opportunities, with companies like Simor International and Aorijin highlighted for their growth potential [30][32][34]. Environmental - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from carbon reduction policies and overseas expansion opportunities, with companies like Huanlan Environment and Ice Wheel Environment noted for their growth prospects [35][40][41].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent developments in the LP market, focusing on new fund establishments and government policies aimed at promoting mergers and acquisitions in Beijing [5][6]. Group 1: Policy Developments - Beijing has issued a policy to support high-quality development through mergers and acquisitions, encouraging quality listed companies and various investment entities to establish and operate acquisition funds [5]. - The establishment of the "Beijing Jingguochuang Intelligent Computing M&A Equity Investment Fund" with a scale of 30 billion RMB reflects the rapid implementation of this policy [8]. Group 2: New Fund Establishments - A total of 13 new funds were established in the LP circle this week, including the 14 billion RMB South Network Industrial Fund and the Jiangsu Zhenjiang High-end Intelligent Manufacturing Special Mother Fund [6]. - The South Network Industrial Fund focuses on new power system construction and aims to invest in major infrastructure and technological innovations [9]. - The "Xianggan Xizheng Advanced Sensing Industry Investment Fund" was established with a scale of 102 million RMB, targeting advanced magnetic sensing and related industries [15]. Group 3: Fund Management and Investment Focus - The "Beijing Innovation Industry Investment Co., Ltd." manages the newly established 30 billion RMB fund, which will significantly increase its management scale [6]. - The newly formed funds are primarily focused on sectors such as biotechnology, advanced manufacturing, and energy, indicating a trend towards investing in high-tech and innovative industries [11][21]. Group 4: Regional Investment Strategies - The establishment of the "Hangzhou Talent Fund Phase II" aims to support innovation and entrepreneurship among high-level talents, with a focus on technology and industry integration [17][18]. - The "Guizhou Qieneng No. 1 Private Fund" was established with a capital of 2.7 billion RMB, reflecting Guizhou's increasing activity in equity investment [14]. Group 5: Market Trends - The article highlights a growing trend of local governments and state-owned enterprises establishing funds to support technological innovation and industrial upgrades, particularly in regions like Fujian and Jiangsu [16][23]. - The establishment of various funds across different regions indicates a strategic push towards enhancing local industrial capabilities and fostering innovation ecosystems [22].

Industry Overview - Charging and swapping equipment is essential for providing power to electric vehicles, encompassing core charging devices and auxiliary maintenance facilities, serving as a critical link between new energy vehicles and the power system [2][5] - The industry is entering a phase of "quantity and quality improvement" driven by robust demand for charging infrastructure and supportive national policies [1][5] Market Size and Growth - By October 2025, the total number of charging infrastructure units in China is expected to reach 18.645 million, with 5,036 battery swapping stations [1][6] - The market size of the charging and swapping equipment industry is projected to reach 35.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [11] Policy Support - A series of national policies have been implemented to support the development of charging infrastructure, including guidelines for integrating electric vehicles with the power grid and promoting large-scale applications of vehicle-grid interaction [5][6] Industry Chain - The industry chain consists of upstream core components and raw material suppliers, midstream equipment manufacturers, and downstream charging service operators [6][8] Regional Distribution - The distribution of public charging facilities shows a concentration in key provinces such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, which account for 66.1% of the total [8][9] Competitive Landscape - The market is characterized by high concentration, with the top 15 charging operators holding 83.8% of the market share, led by companies like TELD and Star Charge [9][10] Technological Advancements - The industry is experiencing a shift towards high-voltage and liquid-cooled charging technologies, with 800V platforms becoming more common [11][12] - The standardization and automation of battery swapping equipment are accelerating, reducing swapping times to 3-5 minutes [11] Future Trends - The industry is expected to focus on technological innovation, ecological collaboration, and optimized layout, with a shift towards high-quality development [12][14] - The charging network will aim for comprehensive coverage, balancing urban and rural infrastructure to meet diverse energy needs [15][16]

Market Overview - In November, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a trend of high-low switching, with the ChiNext Index down 4.23% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 5.23%[5] - The market's focus shifted towards defensive sectors as funds moved from high-valuation growth stocks to low-valuation cyclical stocks and dividend assets[5] Investment Strategy - December's market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with a short-term oscillating structure anticipated[5] - Key events include the Central Economic Work Conference and various industry conferences that may create investment opportunities[5] Key Investment Themes - Focus on "anti-involution" policies which are expected to improve industry performance, particularly in resource sectors benefiting from rising commodity prices[5] - Emphasis on overseas expansion themes, with Chinese high-end manufacturing expected to gain market share globally[5] Recommended Stocks - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) projected EPS growth from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.83 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 23.62 to 10.10[7] - Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ) expected to see EPS rise from 2.38 in 2024 to 2.75 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 10.9 to 9.45[27] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's revenue is projected to grow from 303.64 billion yuan in 2024 to 381.84 billion yuan in 2027, with a net profit increase from 32.05 billion yuan to 75.22 billion yuan[18] - Electric Power Investment's revenue is expected to increase from 298.59 billion yuan in 2024 to 371.25 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit rising from 5.34 billion yuan to 6.17 billion yuan[27] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes, underperformance in commercialization, and slower-than-expected product development[5]

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage sector has transformed into one of the hottest investment areas in the capital market this year, characterized by strong overall performance but significant fluctuations in funding [2][3]. Market Demand - The market demand for energy storage is experiencing explosive growth, with domestic lithium battery shipments reaching 430 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024. Global shipments reached 240.21 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 106.1% [4][20]. - Chinese companies secured 308 new overseas energy storage orders totaling 214.7 GWh in the first nine months of 2025, marking a 131.75% increase year-on-year [4][20]. Policy Support - The government has introduced multiple policies to promote high-quality development in the new energy sector since 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration's action plan aims for a new energy storage capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [4][20]. Material Prices - Key materials for energy storage, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, have seen significant price increases, with some market quotes exceeding 150,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a more than 200% rise since July [4][20]. Market Transition - The energy storage sector is shifting from being a "mandatory allocation" to an "economic choice," marking a significant change in the industry's profitability model. The cancellation of mandatory storage requirements allows energy storage to participate as an independent market entity [5][21]. Revenue Models - As the electricity market reforms deepen, energy storage is transitioning from a cost burden to a profitable asset. Projects in leading provinces can now establish diverse revenue models, significantly enhancing profitability [6][22]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The previous oversupply and low-price competition are easing, with sustained market demand leading to full production capacity among leading battery manufacturers and stabilization of raw material prices [7][23]. Company Performance - Several companies in the energy storage sector have reported significant earnings growth. For instance, CATL's net profit reached 49.034 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 36.2% increase year-on-year [9][25]. - Long-term funds have increased their holdings in energy storage stocks, with 11 stocks receiving support from social security funds, indicating investor confidence in the sector's long-term prospects [10][26]. Institutional Interest - The interest from institutional investors has surged, with 17 energy storage stocks receiving attention from over a hundred institutions since October, further boosting stock performance [11][27].