Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the new energy photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors, highlighting the impact of changes in export tax policies on these industries and the ongoing "anti-involution" actions aimed at stabilizing prices and production capacity [1][5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - On January 12, the lithium battery leader CATL saw its H-shares drop by 3% and A-shares fall over 4%, while companies like Deyang Nano and Hunan Yueneng experienced mixed results with increases and decreases in their stock prices [1]. Export Tax Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance announced that starting April 1, 2026, the export VAT refund for photovoltaic products will be canceled, and the VAT refund rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026, after which it will be completely eliminated [2][3]. Industry Response and Actions - The lithium battery and photovoltaic industries have been facing challenges due to mismatched supply and demand and intense price competition, leading to a series of "anti-involution" initiatives aimed at expanding demand, adjusting prices, and controlling production capacity [3][5]. - Since 2025, there have been calls within the lithium battery sector to resist vicious competition and control the disorderly growth of production capacity, with various companies announcing price adjustments to stabilize the market [5][6]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Despite the seasonal downturn typically seen in the first quarter, the demand for power and energy storage batteries remains strong, with companies reporting sufficient orders and saturated production capacity [8]. - The export tax policy changes are expected to lead to an increase in battery prices, as overseas buyers adjust their purchasing strategies to avoid higher costs after the policy takes effect [8][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the cancellation of export tax refunds will increase the costs and prices of Chinese photovoltaic components in overseas markets, which may lead to industry consolidation and a return to more rational pricing in the long term [7][10].

1月12日，湖南裕能跌2.37%，截至发稿，报62.08元/股，成交17.74亿元，换手率7.38%，总市值472.31 亿元。湖南裕能股价已经连续4天下跌，区间累计跌幅8.47%。 资料显示，湖南裕能新能源电池材料股份有限公司位于湖南省湘潭市雨湖区鹤岭镇日丽路18号，成立日 期2016年6月23日，上市日期2023年2月9日，公司主营业务涉及公司是国内主要的锂离子电池正极材料 供应商,专注于锂离子电池正极材料研发、生产和销售。公司的主要产品包括磷酸铁锂、三元材料等锂 离子电池正极材料,目前以磷酸铁锂为主,主要应用于动力电池、储能电池等锂离子电池的制造,最终应用 于新能源汽车、储能领域等。主营业务收入构成为：磷酸盐正极材料98.04%，其他(补充)1.96%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，方正富邦基金旗下1只基金重仓湖南裕能。方正富邦致盛混合A（020424）三季度持有股数 2.97万股，占基金净值比例为5.29%，位居第一大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约4.48万元。连续4 天下跌期间浮亏损失17.05万元。 方正富邦致盛混合A（020424）基金经理为汤戈。 截至发稿，汤戈累计任职时间4年161天， ...

Core Viewpoint - The production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is projected to reach 3.915 million tons by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 61.5% [1] Monthly Production Trends - In 2025, LFP production is expected to show a steady increase throughout the year, with monthly outputs of 200,000 to 300,000 tons from January to May, 300,000 to 400,000 tons from June to October, and exceeding 400,000 tons in November and December [3] Capacity Analysis - By the end of 2025, nominal LFP production capacity is expected to reach 6.53 million tons, an increase of 950,000 tons from 5.58 million tons at the end of 2024. However, significant idle capacity exists due to high costs, outdated equipment, lack of technology, and insufficient funding [5] - The nominal production capacity of companies capable of mass production will total 5.7235 million tons, up 742,500 tons from 4.981 million tons in 2024 [5] Company Market Share - Hunan Youneng leads the market with approximately 30% share, while other companies hold less than 10%. The second tier includes Wanrun New Energy, Defang Nano, Fulian Shenghua, Youshan Technology, Longpan Lithium Source, and Guoxuan High-Tech, each with market shares between 5% and 10% [8] - The third tier consists of Taifeng Xianxing, Anda Technology, GCL-Poly Energy, Dingsheng Technology, Jintang Times, Rongtong High-Tech, Wanhu Chemical, and Sichuan Langsheng, each with market shares exceeding 2% [8] Production Growth Rates - Among the top 20 companies, Zhongchu Innovation's 100,000-ton production line is expected to fully release in 2025, with a staggering growth rate of 1578%. Other companies like Bangpu Recycling and Wanhu Chemical also show growth rates exceeding 200%, while Anda Technology, GCL-Poly Energy, and Fulian Shenghua exceed 100% [9] Process Technology - The phosphate iron process accounts for 82.1% of production, followed by ferrous oxalate, ferric nitrate, iron red, and hydrothermal methods. The latter three processes have the potential to transition from niche to mainstream as they have already achieved mass production of high-pressure solid products [11]

中信建投证券股份有限公司 关于湖南裕能新能源电池材料股份有限公司 2025 年定期现场检查报告 | 保荐人名称：中信建投证券股份有限公司 上市公司简称：湖南裕能 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保荐代表人姓名：张帅 联系电话：010-56051435 | | | | | 保荐代表人姓名：胡德波 联系电话：010-65608237 | | | | | 现场检查人员姓名：张帅，胡德波 | | | | | 年度 现场检查对应期间：2025 | | | | | 现场检查时间：2025 年 月 日-12 月 日 12 24 25 | | | | | 一、现场检查事项 现场检查意见 | | | | | （一）公司治理 | 是 | 否 | 不适用 | | 现场检查手段：查阅公司章程、公司治理的相关规章制度，并查阅公司相关的三会会议资料 | | | | | 及信息披露文件，访谈管理层 | | | | | 1.公司章程和公司治理制度是否完备、合规 | 是 | | | | 2.公司章程和股东会、董事会规则是否得到有效执行 | 是 | | | | 3.股东会、董事会会议记录是否完整，时间、地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that 2026 is expected to mark the beginning of a new healthy and orderly development cycle for China's lithium battery new energy industry [3][19]. Investment Overview - In 2025, over 282 public investment projects related to the lithium battery industry chain in China are anticipated, with a total investment exceeding 820 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of over 74% [4]. - The investment projects are primarily concentrated in East and Central China, with regions like Fujian, Shandong, and Jiangsu leading in lithium battery and material manufacturing due to their rich chemical resources and strategic enterprise layouts [6]. Regional Distribution - The Southwest region, particularly Sichuan, is expected to dominate the investment in lithium battery positive materials, accounting for 59% of the projects, with a significant production capacity of over 350 GWh [11]. - Negative materials investment is more evenly distributed, with North and Northwest China favored due to lower electricity costs [11]. - The electrolyte projects are mainly concentrated in East China, benefiting from a robust industrial chain and proximity to downstream markets [11]. Overseas Expansion - Chinese lithium battery companies are increasingly focusing on overseas markets, with significant investments in Thailand, Spain, and Portugal, driven by favorable geopolitical conditions and local demand [7]. - Notable projects include the establishment of a zero-carbon AI super factory in Portugal and a joint venture factory in Spain by CATL and Stellantis [7]. Solid-State and Sodium Battery Development - In 2025, solid-state battery projects are expected to be concentrated in East China, with planned capacities of 74 GWh and total investments of 28 billion yuan [15]. - The sodium battery sector is projected to see significant growth, with planned capacities of 81 GWh and total investments of 32.2 billion yuan, primarily in the Southwest region [15]. Market Outlook - The lithium new energy industry is emerging from a challenging period characterized by supply-demand imbalances and declining prices, with positive signals indicating a recovery starting in 2025 [18]. - The demand for solid-state batteries and sodium batteries is expected to accelerate, with the latter projected to achieve a 100% increase in shipments by 2026 [19].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan YN Energy experienced a 5.02% decline in stock price, trading at 64.39 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 48.988 billion yuan as of January 7 [1] Company Overview - Hunan YN Energy New Energy Battery Materials Co., Ltd. is a major supplier of lithium-ion battery cathode materials in China, focusing on research, production, and sales of these materials [1] - The company was established on June 23, 2016, and went public on February 9, 2023 [1] - Main products include lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, primarily used in power batteries and energy storage batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage applications [1] - Revenue composition: 98.04% from phosphate cathode materials and 1.96% from other sources [1] Shareholder Insights - E Fund's Chuangye ETF (159915) is among the top ten circulating shareholders of Hunan YN Energy, having reduced its holdings by 1.349 million shares in Q3, now holding 8.552 million shares, representing 2.21% of circulating shares [2] - Estimated floating loss for E Fund's Chuangye ETF today is approximately 29.0768 million yuan [2] Fund Performance - E Fund's Chuangye ETF (159915) has a total asset size of 110.2 billion yuan, with a year-to-date return of 3.64% and a one-year return of 67.29% [2] - The fund has been managed by Cheng Xi and Liu Shurong, with Cheng having a tenure of 9 years and 248 days, and Liu having a tenure of 8 years and 176 days [3] Fund Holdings - E Fund's Yibai Intelligent Quantitative Strategy Mixed A (005437) holds 37,700 shares of Hunan YN Energy, making it the second-largest holding in the fund, with an estimated floating loss of about 128,200 yuan [4] - The fund has a total asset size of 303 million yuan, with a year-to-date return of 2.5% and a one-year return of 62.34% [4] Fund Management - The fund is managed by Yin Ming and Liu Yang, with Yin having a tenure of 4 years and 295 days, and Liu having a tenure of 127 days [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent price increase of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and the underlying uncertainties in the supply chain, particularly regarding the transmission of lithium carbonate prices to battery manufacturers [2][3] - Two LFP companies confirmed price hikes for downstream customers, with one company indicating an increase of approximately 1500 to 2000 yuan/ton for major clients, while most other customers accepted a processing fee increase of 1000 yuan/ton [2] - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures, with the main contract closing at 137,940 yuan/ton on January 6, indicating a need for better alignment between upstream procurement and downstream pricing mechanisms [3][4] Group 2 - The term "point pricing" has become prevalent in negotiations, where a pricing window is established for both parties to agree on a specific point in time to set the price based on futures contracts [4][5] - Material companies are pushing for a higher proportion of customer-supplied lithium carbonate and shifting the pricing anchor from spot prices to futures-linked pricing to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [5] - Recent announcements from major companies indicate a simultaneous trend of production cuts and expansions, with several LFP manufacturers announcing reductions in production while also planning significant capacity expansions [9][10] Group 3 - Tianqi Lithium announced a reduction in its planned production of electrolyte and battery recycling projects due to changes in market conditions, adjusting its total investment to not exceed 600 million yuan [6][7] - The article notes that while short-term supply constraints and maintenance are occurring, there are also long-term capacity expansion plans in the pipeline, indicating a complex market dynamic [8] - The simultaneous occurrence of production cuts and expansion plans raises questions about whether price increases can translate into profit recovery, emphasizing the importance of navigating price risks and ensuring that processing fees are elevated before new capacities come online [11][12]

Group 1 - The phosphorus chemical concept index rose by 3.34%, ranking 6th among concept sectors, with 53 stocks increasing in value, including Chengxing Co. and Jinpu Titanium Industry reaching the daily limit [1] - Notable gainers in the phosphorus chemical sector included Zhongwei Co. (up 9.41%), Xingfa Group (up 8.89%), and Qingshuiyuan (up 8.62%) [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 273 million yuan from main funds, with 34 stocks receiving net inflows, and 8 stocks exceeding 50 million yuan in net inflow [2] Group 2 - The leading stocks in terms of net inflow ratio included Jinpu Titanium Industry (34.44%), Chengxing Co. (22.97%), and Sichuan Meifeng (17.26%) [3] - The top net inflow stock was Huayou Cobalt, with a net inflow of 549 million yuan, followed by Hunan Youneng (396 million yuan) and Yuegui Co. (163 million yuan) [2] - The overall market performance showed a mixed trend, with some stocks like Hongyuan Pharmaceutical and Taihe Technology experiencing declines of 4.44% and 3.38% respectively [6]

Group 1 - The core business of Hunan YN Energy is focused on the research, production, and sales of lithium-ion battery cathode materials, primarily lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, which are mainly used in power batteries and energy storage batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage applications [2] - As of September 30, 2025, Hunan YN Energy achieved a revenue of 23.226 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 645 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.51% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 737 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [3] Group 2 - On December 31, Hunan YN Energy's stock price fell by 2.93%, with a trading volume of 1.083 billion yuan, and a net financing buy of -4.5797 million yuan [1] - The financing balance of Hunan YN Energy reached 9.74 billion yuan, accounting for 3.89% of its market capitalization, which is above the 90th percentile level over the past year [1] - The company had a short selling balance of 17.9891 million yuan, which is above the 80th percentile level over the past year, indicating a high level of short selling activity [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electric power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The lithium battery prices are rapidly linked, and there is significant long-term potential in space photovoltaic technology [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see substantial growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and supply constraints [3][7] - The electric vehicle market is anticipated to grow by 15% in 2026, supported by continued subsidies and a strong export contribution [26] Industry Trends - The electric power equipment sector experienced a decline of 2.18%, underperforming the market, with specific segments like wind power and new energy vehicles showing slight increases [3] - The report highlights the release of independent energy storage capacity compensation in Hubei Province at 165 RMB/kW·year, indicating government support for energy storage development [3] - The report notes that the global energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with the U.S. projected to see a 60% increase in energy storage installations in 2025 [7] Market Prices and Changes - Lithium carbonate prices are reported at 112,500 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.9% [3] - The average price of polysilicon is reported at 53.00 RMB/kg, with no change, while N-type silicon wafers have seen a price increase of 20% [3] - The report indicates that the average bidding price for onshore wind power is 1,800 RMB/kW, reflecting a competitive market environment [3] Company Performance - Companies like Ningde Times and BYD are highlighted for their strong performance, with Ningde Times expected to see a net profit of 11-16 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 127%-230% [3] - Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are noted for their strategic partnerships and production capacity expansions, positioning them well in the lithium supply chain [3] - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential for companies involved in energy storage and lithium battery production, recommending investments in leading firms such as Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy [3][6]