Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [2][43] - The report recommends "Buy" ratings for specific companies: Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Explorer (300005), Semir Apparel (002563), Guibao Pet (301498), and Zhongchong Co. (002891) [2][45] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the third batch of national subsidies, which is expected to stimulate demand for furniture products and stabilize domestic sales growth for the year [2][42] - The "anti-involution" sentiment has positively influenced the paper industry, with corrugated board prices rising by 5.07% from July 1 to July 25, 2025 [2][41] - The report notes that major paper companies are set to increase prices for corrugated paper and recycled cardboard, which may help boost packaging paper prices [2][41] Industry News - Eldorado and Suzano signed an unprecedented cooperation agreement involving the exchange of "standing timber" for pulp production [8] - Puma forecasts a loss in 2025, with sales expected to decline by over 10% due to weak sales and tariff impacts [8] Company Announcements - Yuanfei Pet plans to implement a stock incentive plan for 62 employees, involving 2.5095 million shares [33] - Rebecca reported a more than 15% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in cross-border e-commerce [33] Market Review - From July 21 to July 25, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.15 percentage points, with notable performances in the paper sector [34] - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, with some stocks facing pressure after previous gains [38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The agricultural sector's public fund heavy holdings increased in Q2 2025, benefiting from US-China tariff disturbances and policy catalysts, with total market capitalization rising to 13,208 billion yuan, up 6.80% quarter-on-quarter [13][12] - The investment logic for the pig industry is improving marginally, with expectations for a price increase in H2 2025 driven by both fundamental and policy factors [23][5] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands, supported by consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, with the pet food market expected to exceed 60 billion yuan by 2025 [26][25] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The agricultural sector's public fund heavy holdings increased, with a total market capitalization of 13,208 billion yuan, representing 1.74% of the A-share market [13][12] - The pig price is expected to stabilize and rise due to ongoing capacity adjustments and supply pressures [4][16] Weekly Market Performance (July 21-25) - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 1.95 percentage points, with the agricultural index rising 3.62% [27][29] - Leading stocks included Shen Nong Group (+15.42%), Zhong Ji Health (+11.63%), and Bang Ji Technology (+11.41%) [32][27] Price Tracking (July 21-25) - The average price of live pigs was 14.15 yuan/kg, down 0.12% from the previous week, while the average price of piglets was 31.89 yuan/kg, also down 0.07% [35][38] - The price of soybean meal increased to 2,983 yuan/ton, up 1.86% week-on-week, driven by rising import costs [19][49] Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Juxing Agriculture [5][23] - In the feed sector, recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope [5][23] - For the pet sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [25][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector's public fund heavy holdings increased in Q2 2025, driven by US-China tariff disruptions, fundamental improvements, and policy catalysts [4][12] - The total market capitalization of the agricultural sector reached 1,320.8 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.80%, accounting for 1.74% of the A-share market [12][16] - The investment logic for the pig farming sector is improving, with expectations of a price increase in the second half of 2025 [20] Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, the public fund heavy holdings in the agricultural sector accounted for 0.47% of the total public stock investment, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.07 percentage points [12][14] - The feed and breeding sub-sectors saw the most significant increase in public fund holdings, while other sub-sectors remained relatively stable [15] Individual Stocks - Leading companies in the feed and breeding sectors, such as Haida Group and Muyuan Foods, saw significant increases in their public fund holdings, with Haida Group's holdings rising by 51% to 12.44 billion [17][19] - The top public fund holdings in the agricultural sector for Q2 2025 were Haida Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs, with respective holdings of 12.44 billion, 6.64 billion, and 6.20 billion [19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and other companies in the pig farming sector due to improving investment logic [20] - The feed sector is expected to benefit from strong overseas demand, with recommendations for Haida Group and New Hope [20] - The pet sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations for Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [20]

Summary of the China Pet Food Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Pet Food Sector**, discussing earnings previews and market dynamics for Q225. Key Companies Discussed 1. **Gambol** 2. **China Pet Foods (CPF)** 3. **Petpal** Core Insights and Arguments Market Performance - **Gambol** shares dropped over **15%** recently, while **China Pet Foods** fell more than **10%** due to: - **Overseas sales deceleration** attributed to tariffs, with pet food exports to the U.S. declining by **42% YoY** in April-May [2][3] - **Increased domestic competition** during the 618 festival, leading to deeper promotions and margin pressure [2] Earnings Expectations - **Gambol**: - Expected **Q225 overseas sales** to decline by **25% YoY** due to tariffs, while domestic sales are projected to grow by **30-35% YoY** [3] - Estimated **net profit** to remain flat YoY at **Rmb162 million** [3] - **China Pet Foods (CPF)**: - Anticipated **Q225 sales growth** of **13.5%**, with domestic sales up **30% YoY** and overseas sales up **10%** [4] - Projected **net profit** increase of **33% YoY** to **Rmb115 million** [4] - **Petpal**: - Expected **Q225 sales decline** of **9%**, with domestic sales down **11%** and overseas sales down **8%** due to tariffs [5] - Estimated **net profit** decrease of **11%** to **Rmb50 million** [5] Revisions and Valuations - **Gambol**: - Revenue estimates for **2025-27** revised down by **3.8-4.3%** and EPS cut by **13-14%** due to tariff uncertainties and increased promotions [6] - Price target reduced to **Rmb96.5** from **Rmb113.1**, implying a **53.5x 2025E PE** [6] - **Petpal**: - EPS for **2025-27** revised down by **6-7%** due to tariff pressures [6] - Price target lowered to **Rmb17.0** from **Rmb18.5**, implying a **30x 2025E PE** [6] Ratings - **China Pet Foods (CPF)**: Rated as **Buy** due to strong brand growth and North American capacity expansion [7] - **Gambol** and **Petpal**: Rated as **Neutral**, reflecting fair valuations and ongoing U.S. tariff uncertainty [7] Additional Important Points - Potential risks for the pet sector include: - Slower-than-expected expansion of domestic brands - Pet food safety issues - Profitability challenges due to price wars and rising raw material costs [23][24][25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff impacts and competitive dynamics in the pet food market [23][24][25][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pet industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The pet industry in China is projected to continue its rapid growth, with the urban pet consumption market expected to increase from 170.8 billion yuan in 2018 to 300.2 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 9.9% [3]. - The pet food market is anticipated to grow from 89.1 billion yuan to 158.5 billion yuan during the same period, with a CAGR of about 10.1% [3]. - The pet healthcare market, including vaccines and medications, is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase from 8.54 billion yuan to 37.22 billion yuan, representing a CAGR of 27.8% [3]. - The report highlights that the pet ownership penetration rate in China is still relatively low compared to mature markets, indicating substantial room for growth [3]. Market Dynamics - The pet ownership demographic is shifting towards younger generations, with post-90s pet owners constituting 41.2% and post-00s pet owners rising to 25.6% [3]. - The report notes that the pet industry in China is characterized by a low concentration of market players, with the top three companies holding only 3.6% of the market share [3]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with numerous small and medium-sized enterprises alongside established brands like Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the pet industry, including Guai Bao Pet (301498), Zhong Chong Co (002891), Yi Yi Co (001206), Yuan Fei Pet (001222), Tian Yuan Pet (301335), and Pu Lai Ke (603566) [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][8][64] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the long-term value reassessment opportunities in the pig industry, with expectations of price fluctuations in the range of 14-15 CNY/kg post-Chinese New Year 2025, indicating a potential downward trend in prices due to supply pressures [4][15] - The poultry sector is experiencing price declines, with a focus on marginal improvements in the cycle, while the animal health sector is expected to see performance recovery and investment opportunities in the pet medical industry [5][6][28] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly emerging, and the report anticipates continued improvement in industry profitability [7][58] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The average price of pigs is currently around 14.6 CNY/kg, with a slight weekly decline [14] - The report recommends companies with low costs and strong financials, specifically highlighting Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [15][64] 2. Poultry Industry - The report notes a decline in poultry prices, with a focus on the cyclical improvements expected in the future [27] - Recommendations include Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [5][28] 3. Animal Health - The animal health sector is expected to see a recovery in performance, supported by the profitability of the pig farming industry [6][38] - Investment opportunities in the pet medical sector are highlighted, with a market size of approximately 840 billion CNY [7][38] 4. Planting Industry - The report indicates a decrease in wheat and corn prices, with recommendations for companies involved in genetically modified seeds [44][50] 5. Feed Industry - The total industrial feed production in the first half of 2025 reached 15,850 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [48][50] - Recommendations include Haida Group and attention to He Feng Stock [50] 6. Pet Industry - The pet consumption market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [55][58] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guai Bao Pet, Zhongchong Stock, and Petty Stock [58][64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the pig farming industry, emphasizing the long-term value of quality pig enterprises amidst the "anti-involution" trend [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the slight increase in the breeding sow inventory in Q2 2025, indicating a potential adjustment in production capacity going forward [3]. - It notes the ongoing decline in average slaughter weights for pigs, suggesting a shift in market dynamics and the need for quality-focused investments [3]. - The report also discusses the recovery in the chicken breeding sector, with a noted increase in the price of broiler chicks, although challenges remain due to high inventory levels [3]. - In the pet food sector, the report indicates a stable growth trajectory despite some short-term sales fluctuations, with a focus on leading brands [3]. - The animal health segment is expected to see a recovery in performance driven by improved profitability in livestock farming and rising demand for vaccines [3]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is reported at 14.39 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decline of 2.0% [3]. - The average slaughter weight for pigs has decreased to 128.83 kg, down 0.2 kg from the previous week [3]. - The breeding sow inventory at the end of Q2 2025 is reported at 40.43 million heads, a slight increase of 40,000 heads from Q1 2025 [3]. Chicken Farming - The average price of broiler chicks has increased by 54.3% week-on-week to 1.25 CNY/chick [3]. - The average price of broiler chickens is reported at 3.15 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 3.3% [3]. - The report anticipates a potential rebound in chick prices during July and August, despite current inventory pressures [3]. Pet Food - The total sales of pet food during the 5-6 month period reached 5.83 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [3]. - The cumulative sales for the first half of 2025 reached 14.91 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 12% [3]. - Leading brands are expected to continue outperforming the market, with a focus on product innovation and market leadership [3]. Animal Health - The report notes a 15.8% year-on-year increase in vaccine approvals, with a total of 9,128 batches approved from January to May 2025 [3]. - The recovery in livestock profitability is expected to drive demand for animal health products, particularly vaccines [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, with expectations of rising prices in the second half of 2025 [25] - The domestic pet consumption market remains stable, but trade tensions have put pressure on exports, with a notable decline in sales and export figures [20][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Short-term supply increases have led to a decline in pig prices, but after market adjustments, prices may rise further [4][13] - As of July 18, the average price of live pigs was 14.19 yuan/kg, down 3.34% from the previous week [13][14] Weekly Market Performance - The agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.83 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% [30][32] - The animal health sector showed the highest gains among sub-sectors [30] Price Tracking - The average price of live pigs decreased to 14.27 yuan/kg, while the price of piglets increased slightly to 31.96 yuan/kg [41] - The price of corn decreased to 2473 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices rose to 2928 yuan/ton [15][56] Key News - As of the end of Q2 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.43 million, with overall meat production showing a slight increase [38] - The report indicates a stable trend in domestic pet food sales, with a total of 31.87 billion yuan in sales for June, down 7.98% year-on-year [20][23] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, while in the feed sector, Hai Da Group and New Hope Liuhe are highlighted [25][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][9]. Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is currently experiencing weak market demand and low prices for livestock and poultry, particularly in the pig farming sector, which has seen a significant price drop [9][12]. - The report highlights that the industry is currently undervalued, with price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios below historical averages, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [9][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In June 2025, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.50%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 1.37 percentage points [9][12]. - The planting sector showed the highest gains, while the animal health processing sector experienced the largest declines [12]. Livestock Farming Data Tracking - **Pig Farming**: The average trading price for pigs in June 2025 was 14.28 yuan/kg, down 2.16% month-on-month and 21.81% year-on-year. The market shifted to a surplus situation, leading to price declines [9][17]. - **Broiler Chickens**: The average price for broiler chicks in June 2025 was 2.15 yuan/chick, reflecting a slight decrease. The cautious replenishment of chicks due to declining prices further pressured the market [9][27]. Pet Food Sector - In May 2025, pet food exports totaled 28,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.52%. The cumulative export value for the first five months was $581 million, up 4.59% year-on-year [9][34]. Major Agricultural Product Price Tracking - The report includes tracking of key agricultural product prices, indicating fluctuations in corn, wheat, and soybean meal prices during June 2025 [9][39]. Industry Dynamics and Company News - The report outlines significant events in the industry, including a decrease in grain imports and ongoing developments in the seed industry aimed at enhancing agricultural productivity [9][46]. - Key announcements from listed companies in the sector include various asset restructuring and financing activities [9][48].

Group 1 - The company's self-owned brand sales performance is outstanding, with significant growth in domestic and overseas markets [2][3] - The company maintains a strong focus on R&D, with cumulative expenses reaching 227 million yuan over three years, leading to product innovation and market recognition [2] - The new factory in Thailand, with an investment of approximately 200 million yuan, will begin full production in the second half of this year, helping to mitigate tariff risks on overseas business [3] Group 2 - The investment recommendation is to maintain a "buy" rating with a target price of 119.7 yuan, based on projected EPS of 1.9/2.34/2.98 yuan for 2025-2027 [2] - The company ranks highly in various sales channels, with its brands, Maifudi and Fuleijiate, performing well in both online and offline markets [2] - The company is expected to achieve a valuation of 63x for 2025, reflecting its strong competitive position in the pet food industry [2]