证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 2026年02月10日 制造成长周报（第 46 期） 优于大市 事件 2-Spacex 宣布以全股票交易形式收购人工智能公司 xAI：2026 年 2 月 2 日，马斯克旗下的 Spaex（太空探索技术公司）正式宣布，以全股票交 易形式收购其人工智能公司 xAI。 事件 3-亚马逊 2026 年资本支出预计增长至 2000 亿美元：2026 年 2 月 5 日，亚马逊发布财报，表示正积极投资数据中心等基础设施以满足 AI 需求的激增，预计 2026 年投入约 2000 亿美元资本支出，同比增长超过 50%。 商业航天点评：SpaceX 收购人工智能公司 xAI，太空算力发展有望加速协同 发展，太空应用场景的落地将带动火箭发射需求，运力提速发展也将打开更 多应用场景。我们持续看好商业航天的长期投资机会，重点关注运力卡脖子 的火箭环节，优先看好 Spacex 产业链以及国内商业火箭产业链如蓝箭航天、 中科宇航等头部民营火箭产业链：1)火箭端重点关注重要结构件及 3D 打印 新应用：【华曙高科】【江顺科技】【南风股份】【应流股份】【龙溪股 份】；2）卫星端关注总装及检验检测 ...

Group 1: Capital Expenditure Projections - The four major cloud giants are expected to significantly increase capital expenditures in 2026, with Microsoft forecasting a higher growth rate than in 2025[2] - Meta's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $115 billion and $135 billion[2] - Google's capital expenditure for 2026 is estimated to be between $175 billion and $185 billion[2] - Amazon anticipates a capital expenditure of approximately $200 billion for 2026[2] Group 2: Market Concerns and Financial Performance - Following the earnings reports, stock prices of the four giants experienced declines, raising concerns about investment returns[2] - Amazon's operating cash flow for 2026 is projected to be insufficient to cover its capital expenditures, potentially leading to a cash flow deficit[2] - Analysts predict that 2026 will see a heightened focus on AI revenue growth and the ability of AI to create a commercial loop[2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Comparisons - The overall trading activity in the STAR Market decreased, with an average daily trading volume of approximately ¥241.32 billion, down from ¥318.02 billion the previous week[6] - The STAR Market's average PE ratio stands at 75.75, significantly higher than other major boards, indicating a premium valuation[10] - The technology sector's performance in the STAR Market was mixed, with the beauty care sector showing the highest weekly gain of +12.0% and the computer sector experiencing the largest decline of -7.4%[15]

With Netflix recently striking a deal to stream all films produced by Sony Pictures Entertainment globally after their theatrical release—and potentially moving to acquire the massive Warner Bros library—the niche, urban, English-language OTT space in India is bracing for a significant shake-up. As global catalogues consolidate under fewer platforms, industry experts believe these international shifts will fundamentally alter consumer choices in India, forcing rivals like Prime Video and JioHotstar to rethi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Amazon (AMZN.O) [2][4] Core Insights - Amazon's Q4 2025 revenue reached $213.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 14%, with operating profit at $25 billion, up 18% year-over-year, and net profit at $21.2 billion, a 6% increase year-over-year, which aligns with expectations [1][5] - AWS revenue was $35.6 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 24%, exceeding consensus expectations [1] - For 2026, Amazon's capital expenditure guidance is projected at approximately $200 billion, significantly higher than market expectations, indicating a focus on balancing demand and capacity [1][5] - Long-term prospects remain strong due to improvements in e-commerce fulfillment efficiency, competitive pricing, and accelerated growth in cloud services, alongside increased investments in AI [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024 to 2028 are as follows: $637.96 billion (2024), $716.92 billion (2025), $810.80 billion (2026E), $908.19 billion (2027E), and $1,014.42 billion (2028E), with year-over-year growth rates of 11%, 12.4%, 13.1%, 12%, and 11.7% respectively [3][8] - Operating profit is expected to grow from $68.59 billion in 2024 to $145.04 billion in 2028, with significant growth rates, particularly in 2026 at 24.1% [3][9] - Net profit projections are $59.25 billion (2024), $77.67 billion (2025), $82.30 billion (2026E), $99.36 billion (2027E), and $118.74 billion (2028E), with a notable growth rate of 31.1% in 2025 [3][8] Stock Performance - The current stock price is $208.72, with a market capitalization of $228 billion [4] - The stock has shown absolute performance of 9.1% over the past month, 17.6% over six months, and 20.0% over the past year [5]

Core Insights - The competition for AI leadership among major cloud providers is intensifying, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon leading in different segments of the AI stack [1] Microsoft (Azure) - In Q2 FY2026, Microsoft's Cloud revenue rose 26% to US$51.5 billion, driven by a 39% increase in Azure and other cloud revenue [2] - Microsoft's capital expenditure (CAPEX) surged 66% YoY to US$37.5 billion, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth [2] - The backlog for Azure reached US$625 billion, up 110% YoY, indicating strong demand for Azure services [3] - OpenAI contributed 45% to Microsoft's backlog, while the non-OpenAI segment grew 28% YoY, reflecting broad-based demand [3] - Microsoft is developing custom AI accelerators and integrating AI into its product suites, similar to Alphabet's strategy [3] - The company has extended the useful life of older GPUs through advanced software, akin to NVIDIA's CUDA approach [4] Alphabet (Google Cloud Platform - GCP) - In Q4 2025, Alphabet's Cloud revenue increased 48% YoY to US$17.7 billion, with GCP growing at an even higher rate [5] - Alphabet's CAPEX in Q4 2025 rose 95% YoY to US$27.9 billion, with total CAPEX for 2025 reaching US$91.4 billion [5] - GCP's backlog grew 55% sequentially to US$240 billion in Q4 2025, with projected CAPEX for 2026 expected to be US$175 billion to US$185 billion [6] - Revenue from GCP's AI products grew nearly 400% YoY in Q4 2025, with costs to run its AI models reduced by 78% [7] - 14 of Alphabet's AI-powered products have annual revenues exceeding US$1 billion, indicating significant adoption [8] Amazon (AWS) - AWS revenue surged 24% YoY to US$35.6 billion in Q4 2025, marking the fastest growth in 13 quarters [9] - Amazon's CAPEX reached US$39.5 billion in Q4 2025, a 42% YoY increase, with total CAPEX for 2025 at US$131.8 billion [9] - Projected CAPEX for 2026 is expected to be around US$200 billion, driven by demand for core and AI workloads [10] - Amazon's backlog increased 40% YoY to US$244 billion, reflecting strong demand [10] - AWS's Trainium and Graviton chips are generating a US$10 billion annual revenue run rate, growing at triple-digit percentages YoY [13] - Amazon Bedrock, a service for building AI applications, is utilized by over 100,000 companies and has a multi-billion-dollar annualized revenue run rate [13] - Amazon Connect reached a US$1 billion annualized revenue run rate in Q4 2025, growing at 30% YoY [13]

智通财经获悉，有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，美国总统特朗普领导下的美国联邦政府计划对 亚马逊(AMZN.US)、谷歌(GOOGL.US)以及微软(MSFT.US)等美国科技巨头们豁免于即将重磅出台的下 一轮对外芯片关税政策，主要因为这些大型科技公司正在大规模建设AI数据中心，而这一如火如荼的 AI投资进程与建设进程对于美国经济而言可谓至关重要。 知情人士强调，这些攸关芯片关税政策的特殊豁免政策将由美国商务部经过贸易调查之后进行豁免性质 的提供，并且与有着"芯片代工之王"称号的台积电(TSM.US)超过千亿美元在美国本土制造高性能AI芯 片以及其他3nm及以下制程最先进芯片制造与封装的大额投资承诺密切相关联。 不过知情人士强调，这项大规模关税豁免计划目前仍在调整中，尚未得到总统特朗普签字批准。 此前台积电在1月份的业绩电话会议中强调，这家全球最大规模的芯片代工制造商正在积极投资高达 1650亿美元，预计将在美国亚利桑那州建设多个大型芯片制造工厂，目前其中一座工厂已实现5nm芯片 美国本土产能。 AI数据中心建设进程对于美国经济有多重要? 毋庸置疑的是，AI数据中心建设已经从技术投资快速演进为宏观经济的重要 ...

智通财经APP获悉，有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，美国总统特朗普领导下的美国联邦政府计 划对亚马逊(AMZN.US)、谷歌(GOOGL.US)以及微软(MSFT.US)等美国科技巨头们豁免于即将重磅出台 的下一轮对外芯片关税政策，主要因为这些大型科技公司正在大规模建设AI数据中心，而这一如火如 荼的AI投资进程与建设进程对于美国经济而言可谓至关重要。 知情人士强调，这些攸关芯片关税政策的特殊豁免政策将由美国商务部经过贸易调查之后进行豁免性质 的提供，并且与有着"芯片代工之王"称号的台积电(TSM.US)超过千亿美元在美国本土制造高性能AI芯 片以及其他3nm及以下制程最先进芯片制造与封装的大额投资承诺密切相关联。 在这种背景下，如果对于数据中心建设至关重要的最核心硬件产品——即关键芯片，一刀切地加征高额 关税，就可能大幅推高AI数据中心建设成本、延缓项目进度甚至打击投资者信心，从而在短期内拖累 经济增长——关税本身就被研究表明会减少经济增长，长期可能压缩产能和资本存量。 因此最新的豁免传闻显示的核心AI数据中心所需芯片关税豁免，实际上是特朗普政府试图保持超大规 模AI算力基础设施投资的节奏，防止对市场预 ...

有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，美国电商与云计算领军者亚马逊(AMZN.US)计划推出人工智能内容市场(AI content marketplace)。据媒体报道，亚马逊的一些高管成员们向出版业高管们表示，计划推出一个大型内容市场，出版商们可以在其 中向提供人工智能产品的科技公司们公开报价以出售内容版权。 在亚马逊旗下的全球最大规模云计算巨头AWS正式会议召开之前，AWS已向与亚马逊管理层讨论过此项目的两名内部 消息人士发送了有关内容市场的幻灯片。 媒体援引上述消息人士的话报道称，幻灯片中显示，AWS将内容市场与其核心AI工具/AI开发者生态平台(包括AWS独家 推出的Bedrock和Quick Suite)一同归类，并且具体描述出版商们可以在其业务中广泛使用的产品时将市场与其核心AI 工具/AI开发者生态平台归为一类。 媒体报道指出，出版商和AI相关科技公司正在就使用一些具有独家版权的线上内容的规则进行谈判，无论是用于训练模 型还是为用户生成标准式的AI推理答案，出版商们都在要求基于使用量的具体费用，以及根据内容使用量的多少来提高 所收取费用。 一位亚马逊发言人在邮件回复中表示，该公司"目前没有关于这一 ...

有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，美国总统特朗普领导下的美国联邦政府计划对亚马逊 (AMZN.US)、谷歌(GOOGL.US)以及微软(MSFT.US)等美国科技巨头们豁免于即将重磅出台的下一轮对 外芯片关税政策，主要因为这些大型科技公司正在大规模建设AI数据中心，而这一如火如荼的AI投资 进程与建设进程对于美国经济而言可谓至关重要。 知情人士强调，这些攸关芯片关税政策的特殊豁免政策将由美国商务部经过贸易调查之后进行豁免性质 的提供，并且与有着"芯片代工之王"称号的台积电(TSM.US)超过千亿美元在美国本土制造高性能AI芯 片以及其他3nm及以下制程最先进芯片制造与封装的大额投资承诺密切相关联。 不过知情人士强调，这项大规模关税豁免计划目前仍在调整中，尚未得到总统特朗普签字批准。 此前台积电在1月份的业绩电话会议中强调，这家全球最大规模的芯片代工制造商正在积极投资高达 1650亿美元，预计将在美国亚利桑那州建设多个大型芯片制造工厂，目前其中一座工厂已实现5nm芯片 美国本土产能。 AI数据中心建设进程对于美国经济有多重要? 毋庸置疑的是，AI数据中心建设已经从技术投资快速演进为宏观经济的重要驱动力。摩根大 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Baillie Gifford's total holdings value decreased to $120.34 billion in Q4 2025, down approximately 10.8% from $135 billion in Q3 2025, primarily due to a net selling strategy and some growth stocks experiencing high-level corrections [1][2]. Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - Nvidia remains the largest holding despite a 5.76% reduction in shares, accounting for 6.80% of the portfolio [3]. - Mercado Libre saw a 4.95% increase in holdings, raising its share to 5.83%, solidifying its position as a cornerstone of the portfolio [3]. - The top five holdings also include Amazon, Shopify, and Sea Ltd, with the top ten holdings comprising 43.4% of the total portfolio [4]. Group 2: Notable Transactions - Significant reductions were made in Amazon, Shopify, Meta, and Cloudflare, while Google saw a notable increase in holdings by 166%, reflecting a strategic shift towards AI capabilities [5][6]. - Baillie Gifford's investment in Google is valued at approximately $1.7 billion post-increase [6]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy and Trends - The investment team emphasizes the importance of adapting to the AI wave, suggesting that companies must pivot quickly to meet new market demands [9][10][12]. - The transition to AI is viewed as a new paradigm shift, with potential for significant growth opportunities as new companies emerge [14][15]. - The focus is on both "AI core" companies and those using AI as a tool to enhance existing services [21][24]. Group 4: Insights on China and Platform Companies - The sentiment in China has shifted, with a recognition of the country's potential to foster visionary entrepreneurs, particularly in the battery sector where CATL holds a significant market share [25][26]. - Platform companies are highlighted for their ability to create value through network effects and adaptability, requiring a long-term investment perspective [28]. Group 5: Non-Public Company Investments - Baillie Gifford has committed over £6 billion to non-public companies since 2012, recognizing the increasing duration of private company ownership before IPOs [31][32]. - The firm holds significant stakes in companies like SpaceX and ByteDance, which have shown substantial revenue growth compared to public market indices [33]. Group 6: Portfolio Construction Approach - The investment strategy is bottom-up, focusing on global transformations rather than specific trends or technologies [34]. - The portfolio includes a diverse range of companies across various sectors, with ongoing adjustments to capitalize on emerging growth opportunities [38].