视频里分析师指着柱状图讲： 昨天晚上刷YouTube时，正好刷到Bloomberg刚出的一个深度视频，标题是《Big Tech's $650 Billion Gamble》（科技巨头的6500亿豪赌）。 2026年，就亚马逊、谷歌、微软这几家，预计就要砸进去6500亿美金的资本支出（Capex）。 紧接着，他抛出一个特尴尬的结论：投入是指数级涨的，收入是线性涨的；如果不解决这个问题，2026 年的 AI 产业，很有可能撞上一个巨大的气穴。 就跟飞机似的，飞着飞着突然掉进真空里，那种失重的感觉，大家应该都能想象到。所以，看完这个视 频我认为，这不光是华尔街的焦虑，更是整个AI行业的过渡时刻。 咱们看看这6500亿美金是怎么来的，到底能烧出点啥？ Bloomberg视频里说的6500亿美金，是个挺微妙的数。我特意去翻了高盛的原始研报才发现，这数背后 是一种特别罕见的「倒挂」。 怎么理解这个倒挂？ 基建都跑到平流层了，应用还在慢慢爬坡。你看亚马逊、微软、谷歌、Meta这几家，2026年的资本支 出也差不多是这个数；这笔钱都花哪儿了？ 全用来买卡、建数据中心，甚至去抢电力资源了，这种投入力度，已经是「赌国运」级别的基 ...

AI is big business for big tech firms. But have any taken out too much debt to keep up with the competition?Last week, there was a flurry of earnings releases from "Big Tech" companies. Artificial intelligence is big business, and competition for many of them is stiff these days. The resulting spending spree, which has been coined "hyperscaling," is resulting in billions of dollars to buy semiconductor chips, build data centers, and develop the software to run AI.In a recent edition of the investment newspa ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market has shifted towards the substantial capital expenditure budgets set by major tech companies for 2026, which are significantly higher than expected, totaling approximately $650 billion, indicating a strong commitment to AI development despite concerns from investors about the aggressive spending plans [1][4]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Plans - Amazon is projected to have a capital expenditure of $200 billion in 2026, exceeding analyst expectations of $144.7 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of over 50% from $131 billion in 2025 [2][3]. - Alphabet (Google) anticipates capital expenditures between $175 billion and $185 billion for 2026, a significant increase from $91.4 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 91.5% to 102.4% [3]. - Meta plans to double its capital expenditure to between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2026, compared to $72.2 billion in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 59.3% to 87% [3]. - Microsoft is expected to reach a capital expenditure of $105 billion for its fiscal year ending in June 2026, with a reported $37.5 billion in capital expenditures for the second fiscal quarter, marking a 66% year-over-year increase [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Strategy - The investment strategies of these companies are aligned, focusing on the strong demand for AI while addressing capacity constraints that require increased investment [4]. - Meta is prioritizing investments in computational infrastructure, with plans to build large-scale data centers to support AI models and ensure stable power supply [4]. - Alphabet aims to enhance its computational and cloud services capabilities, with approximately 60% of its 2026 capital expenditures allocated to servers and 40% to data centers and network equipment [5]. - Amazon's capital expenditures will primarily support its cloud business (AWS) to meet strong customer demand, emphasizing the ability to quickly deploy computing resources [6]. Group 3: Market Performance and Concerns - The cloud business is becoming a high-return investment area in the AI sector, with notable performances from major cloud service providers during the earnings season [7]. - Amazon's AWS sales reached $35.6 billion in Q4 2025, a 24% year-over-year increase, while Microsoft's cloud revenue grew 26% to $51.5 billion, and Alphabet's cloud revenue increased 48% to $17.7 billion [8]. - Despite the strong order backlog, which includes $240 billion for Google Cloud and $244 billion for AWS, there are concerns about the pressure on profitability and cash flow due to the need for continued capital investment [8][9]. Group 4: Financial Health and Investor Sentiment - Amazon's free cash flow has dropped significantly from $38.2 billion to $11.2 billion over the past year, with predictions of a negative free cash flow of $17 billion in 2026 [9]. - Alphabet is also facing challenges, with projections indicating a 58% and 80% drop in free cash flow per share for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively [9]. - Microsoft's aggressive capital expenditure plans have raised concerns among investors, leading to a 10% drop in its stock price following its earnings report, the largest single-day decline since March 2020 [9][10].

上周，甲骨文也发行了价值250亿美元的债券，并成为2026年首家试水债务市场的大型科技公司。此外，据市场消 息，Meta也计划在今年进行大规模债券发行，以期加速推进在美国境内建设数据中心的计划。 最新的财报则预计，微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta和甲骨文等公司今年在AI基础设施方面支出的投入可能高达7000亿 美元。 当地时间2月10日，瑞银警告称，AI基础设施支出可能已接近峰值。瑞银首席投资办公室当天下调了美国科技板块评 级至中性。 在瑞银发出最新警告后，当天美股收盘，科技板块股价普遍下跌。谷歌股价下跌近1.8%，Meta、亚马逊等公司股价 均下跌近1%。 瑞银下调评级的举措发生在美国软件股经历了一周惨重的暴跌之后。投行杰富瑞分析师也在近期的一份报告中指 出，AI资本支出将面临放缓，这是目前科技行业投资面临最大的不利因素。 不过科技公司扩大AI资本支出的野心并未受到影响。谷歌已于周一发行了罕见的100年期的"世纪债券"，以支持AI基 础设施的扩张。根据IFR的数据，谷歌百年债券的认购额几乎是目标金额的十倍，收益率为 6.05%。 相关统计数据显示，过去3年里，科技巨头在AI基础设施方面的支出增长了超过4倍。而最 ...

7400亿美元的2026年AI资本开支同比增长约70%，正吞噬美股科技巨头经营现金流，除微软外，其他公司自由现金流或转负。AI相 关债务占美国IG债市约14%，资金由股市溢价转向债市承接。随着现金流和融资压力加剧，市场容错率下降，一旦回报兑现节奏放 缓，风险将向更广泛资产蔓延。 当硅谷巨头们的AI资本开支膨胀到接近全年现金流规模时，市场关心的已不再是"值不值"，而是"撑不撑得住"。 据最新公开数据显示，谷歌、亚马逊、微软、Meta四家超大规模云厂商2026年合计资本支出指引约为 6500亿美元 。 若计入甲骨文（Oracle）与CoreWeave，整体规模上升至 7400亿美元 。 这些数字不仅高于市场预期，而且是 成倍级别的偏离 。 7400亿美元 意味着什么？ 7400亿美元较2025年同比增长约 70%； 它是2025年底市场一致预期（约35%的资本支出增长）的 两倍； 7400亿美元接近整个超大规模云厂商体系 全年经营现金流总量。 更值得警惕的是：高盛分析师Shreeti Kapa指出，如果达到这一水平，这种支出的强度将接近上世纪90年代互联网泡沫巅峰时 期占GDP 1.4%的水平 。虽然仍低于工业革 ...

来源：格隆汇APP Hawtin还指出，人工智能竞赛中一个关键因素可能决定胜负：专有数据。"数据的所有权将绝对决定谁 能最终胜出。"并以谷歌母公司Alphabet去年的强劲表现为例。Hawtin表示，尽管Alphabet去年起初表现 不佳，但最终仍成为"科技七巨头"中表现最好的公司，全年涨幅达65%，而"这主要归功于其庞大的专 有数据集"。 格隆汇2月11日｜"科技七巨头"——苹果、微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta、特斯拉和英伟达——不断 增长的资本支出，预示着投资者面临的风险增加，并可能成为这些主导公司最终跑输大盘的催化剂。这 是英国基金管理公司Liontrust全球股票主管Hawtin的最新观点。他指出，最近财报中宣布的激进支出计 划是那些寻求可靠回报的股东们最关心的问题。 ...

以下文章来源于科创板日报 ，作者张真 科创板日报 . 专注科创板和科技创新，上海报业集团主管主办，界面财联社出品。 美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）表示，已批准亚马逊部署4500颗卫星。 这家公司计划扩大其卫星星座，以与埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX展开竞 争。 此次批准后，亚马逊计划部署的"低地球轨道卫星星座"规模将达到约7700颗卫星。去年4月以来，该公司已利用多家火箭发射服务商发射了 超过150颗卫星。亚马逊表示，其目标是在 今年晚些时候通过名为"Leo"（Low Earth Orbit）的服务开始提供卫星互联网服务 ，该项目于 2019年宣布启动。 横向对比来看，亚马逊部署卫星规模与SpaceX尚有差距。1月31日，FCC表示，SpaceX正在申请发射并运营一个由至多100万颗卫星组成 的星座，这些卫星具备前所未有的计算能力，以支持先进的人工智能。 SpaceX表示，"为了提供支持全球数十亿用户的大规模AI推理及数据中心应用所需的计算能力，SpaceX拟部署最多100万颗卫星系统，这 些卫星拟部署在高度500公里至2000公里的轨道上，将在宽度高达50公里的狭窄轨道壳层内运行。" 在亚马逊向SpaceX发起挑 ...

注：指数成分股可能随指数编制规则发生变动，不构成任何投资建议或个股推荐。提及个股仅用于 行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不 构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风 险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品要素、风险等级及收益分配原 则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 相关机构表示，AI 数据中心需求推动光纤光缆量价齐升。数量上，光纤光缆被广泛应用在数据中 心 Scale Out 场景，伴随传输速率和配套光模块升级，传输通道数及光缆芯数也在增长；后续 Scale Across 和 Scale Up 场景亦有望打开光纤光缆的增量市场。价格上，行业供需关系改善引导G.657.A1、 多模等数据中心用光纤价格上行，同时也带来小芯径、超低损、空芯光纤等高价值产品需求。根据 C114 通信网，1 月 28 日，Meta 与康宁达成协议，拟于 26-30 年投资 60 亿美元用于 AI 数据中心光纤电 缆，印证行业景气度。 2 月 4 日及 2 月 5 日，谷歌母公 ...

Group 1: Capital Expenditure Insights - Major cloud providers including Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are projected to have a combined capital expenditure guidance of approximately $650 billion for 2026, which increases to $740 billion when including Oracle and CoreWeave [1][3] - The $740 billion figure represents a 70% year-over-year increase compared to 2025 and is double the market consensus expectation of 35% growth for that year [3][4] - This level of capital expenditure is nearing the total annual operating cash flow of the entire large-scale cloud provider ecosystem, raising concerns about sustainability [3][5] Group 2: Financial Implications - Goldman Sachs analysts warn that if capital expenditures reach $700 billion by 2026, it would be comparable to the peak internet bubble's spending intensity, which was 1.4% of GDP [3][5] - Cash flows are being significantly impacted, with predictions that many companies will exhaust their free cash flow, leading to increased reliance on debt financing [5][9] - The AI investment boom is causing a shift in the debt market, with AI-related investment-grade debt accounting for about 14% of the U.S. investment-grade market, surpassing the banking sector [8][13] Group 3: Debt Market Dynamics - Major tech companies are increasingly turning to the debt market to fund their AI-related expenditures, with Oracle issuing a record $25 billion in bonds and Google following with a $20 billion issuance [14][16] - Despite strong initial demand for these bonds, signs of strain are emerging in the debt market, with widening spreads and underperformance of newly issued bonds [16][18] - The software industry is facing valuation challenges as AI tools disrupt traditional software demand, posing risks to private credit markets heavily invested in software companies [19][22] Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Companies are caught in a "prisoner's dilemma," where failing to invest in AI could result in losing market share, while over-investing could lead to financial strain [23][26] - The potential outcomes hinge on the return on investment (ROI) from these massive capital expenditures, with a significant gap between projected profits and required returns [28][29] - Two scenarios are outlined: a bullish scenario where AI adoption mirrors cloud computing's trajectory, and a bearish scenario reminiscent of past tech failures, indicating that not all companies may achieve sufficient long-term profitability [31]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 2026年02月10日 制造成长周报（第 46 期） 优于大市 第三代特斯拉人形机器人即将亮相，Spacex 收购人工智能公 司 xAI 重点事件点评&重点关注：商业航天、人形机器人、AI 基建 事件 1-特斯拉第三代人形机器人即将亮相：2026 年 2 月 6 日，据特斯拉官 方微博消息，第三代特斯拉人形机器人即将亮相，预计年产百万台。 事件 2-Spacex 宣布以全股票交易形式收购人工智能公司 xAI：2026 年 2 月 2 日，马斯克旗下的 Spaex（太空探索技术公司）正式宣布，以全股票交 易形式收购其人工智能公司 xAI。 事件 3-亚马逊 2026 年资本支出预计增长至 2000 亿美元：2026 年 2 月 5 日，亚马逊发布财报，表示正积极投资数据中心等基础设施以满足 AI 需求的激增，预计 2026 年投入约 2000 亿美元资本支出，同比增长超过 50%。 商业航天点评：SpaceX 收购人工智能公司 xAI，太空算力发展有望加速协同 发展，太空应用场景的落地将带动火箭发射需求，运力提速发展也将打开更 多应用场景。我们持续看好商业航天的长期投资 ...