洞见 （ DJ00123987 ） —— 不一样的观点，不一样的故事， 3000 万人订阅的微信大号。点击标题下蓝字 " 洞见 " 关注，我们将为您提供有价值、有意思的 延伸阅读。 作者： 洞见·姜榆木 人定财自来。 ♬ 点上方播放按钮可收听洞见主播佳音朗读音频 前不久，英国杜伦大学商学院教授胡润发布了2025年《中国高净值人群品质生活报告》。 参与此次调研的，共有470位受访者，平均家庭总资产为6100万。 这也是胡润连续22年，跟踪调研中国的高净值人群，透视他们的生活方式和消费习惯。 很多人提到身家千万的富豪，想到的是富足悠闲的生活，一掷千金的潇洒。然而走近他们的生活，就会发现： 真正的富有，往往不是富有本身，而是富有的习惯。 持续工作 知乎上曾有一个热门问题： 那些财富自由却还要工作的人，到底是什么心态？ 在评论区里，有人将其归结为无止境的欲望，有人则认为是精神的寄托。 然而有个回答，给我印象最深：有没有可能，工作早已成为富人的习惯。 认为赚到钱后就能躺平的人，往往一辈子也赚不到能让自己躺平的财富。 只有把工作变成一种习惯，不断解决新的问题，才能持续向上，突破更高阶的人生。 这种人哪怕已经取得巨大的成功 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：君实财经） 亚马逊2025年Q4业绩点评整理 《广发海外电子通信》 AI持续推动云端业务 AWS业务收入356亿美元，同比增加24%，高于市场预期的21%，加速增长由核心服务和AI服务共同驱 动，因为客户持续对其基础设施进行现代化，并将工作负载迁移至云端，年化营收规模提升至1420亿美 元。 持续扩展数据中心网络 正大规模扩展数据中心网络以最快的速度扩充产能，过去12个月新增超3.9GW，预计到2027年将再翻 倍，仅第四季度，公司就新增超过1.2GW。现已获得超过140万颗Trainium2芯片订单，业务规模达数十 亿美元。市场对Trainium3的需求非常强劲，其性价比较Trainium2高出40%，预计到2026年中几乎全部 芯片供应都将被预订。若将Trainium和Graviton合并计算，年化营收规模远超100亿美元。 股价盘后下跌11%，主因资本支出远超市场预期，引发近期投资人对资本回报率的担忧，且其业绩及指 引仅符合预期。然而，公司持续正向看待资本投入，认为AI产能建置的速度代表其货币化速度，是强 劲资本回报率的难得机遇。 亚马逊发布Q4财报，26年资本开支指引2000亿 ...

墙的一侧是每秒万亿次的浮点运算渴求；另一侧，则是平均电网年龄超 40 年、变压器短缺率高达 30%、扩建周期长达 5-10 年的基建泥潭。 也因此，海豚君对于北美缺电重点理解： 1）缺电背后是是一个中短期的供需差，还是一个长期的结构性问题？ 2） 缺电 如何解决，解决的背后对应的怎样的细分赛道的投资机会？ 本篇重点探讨第一个问题，重点理解一个高度成熟的国家，如何混到无电可用的。 | 发布日期 | 政策文件 | 发布主体和类型 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年1月29日 | 《Unleashing American 总统办公室文件 | | 发布包括鼓励美国能源勘探和生产在内的 8 项政 | | | Energy » (Executive | | 策:立即审查所有可能加重国内能源资源开发负担 | | | Order 14154) | | 的机构行动;撤销和修订部分总统行动与监管行 | | | | | 动:通过高效审批释放能源主导地位:优先保障环 | | | | | 境分析的准确性;终止"绿色新政";保护美国国 | | | | | 家安全:恢复美国矿产主导地位等 ...

Core Insights - The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) is a passively managed ETF launched on December 16, 1998, designed to provide broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Broad segment of the equity market [1] - The ETF has become increasingly popular among retail and institutional investors due to its low costs, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency [1] Fund Overview - Sponsored by State Street Investment Management, XLY has over $23.14 billion in assets, making it the largest ETF in the Consumer Discretionary - Broad segment [3] - The ETF aims to match the performance of the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index, which represents the consumer discretionary sector of the S&P 500 Index [3] Cost Structure - XLY has annual operating expenses of 0.08%, positioning it as one of the least expensive ETFs in its category [4] - The ETF offers a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.8% [4] Sector Exposure and Holdings - The ETF is fully allocated to the Consumer Discretionary sector, minimizing single stock risk through diversified exposure [5] - Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) constitutes approximately 23.76% of total assets, with Tesla Inc (TSLA) and Home Depot Inc (HD) also among the top holdings; the top 10 holdings represent about 70.25% of total assets [6] Performance Metrics - As of February 9, 2026, XLY has experienced a loss of about 1.19% year-to-date but is up approximately 3.39% over the past year [7] - The ETF has traded between $88.17 and $124.52 in the last 52 weeks, with a beta of 1.25 and a standard deviation of 20.44% over the trailing three-year period, indicating medium risk [7] Alternatives - XLY carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting it is a viable option for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector [8] - Other ETF options in this space include iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) and Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR), with respective assets of $3.04 billion and $6.20 billion [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the communication and AI computing chain, including沃尔核材, 奥飞数据, 锐捷网络, 中国移动, 新易盛, 中际旭创, 万国数据, 天孚通信, and 亨通光电 [8][39]. Core Insights - The North American cloud service providers (CSPs) have shown a significant increase in capital expenditures, with a year-on-year growth of 66.64% in Q4 2025, totaling $117.6 billion. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with a projected capital expenditure of $570.77 billion, reflecting a 53.2% increase [2][12][13]. - Major CSPs such as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google are optimistic about their capital spending for 2026, with Microsoft estimating $115.2 billion, Amazon $161.3 billion, Meta $123.7 billion, and Google $170.5 billion [2][12][13]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the global AI computing chain, including components like optical modules, liquid cooling, copper connections, and switches, driven by the increasing demand for computing power [1][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The communication index fell by 6.95% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.27% and 2.11%, respectively [1][11]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report identifies a primary investment theme in the communication industry for 2026, focusing on the AI computing chain, with recommended companies including 中际旭创, 新易盛, 天孚通信, and others [3]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the four major North American cloud providers, collectively known as MAMG, which includes Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, with a total capital expenditure of $372.55 billion in 2025 [2][12]. Company Recommendations - Specific companies are recommended for investment based on their growth potential and market position, including: - 沃尔核材 (Target Price: 43.21) [39] - 奥飞数据 (Target Price: 31.17) [39] - 锐捷网络 (Target Price: 102.51) [39] - 中国移动 (Target Price: 126.20) [39] - 新易盛 (Target Price: 476.71) [39] - 中际旭创 (Target Price: 626.68) [39] - 万国数据 (Target Price: 45.83) [39] - 天孚通信 (Target Price: 211.92) [39] - 亨通光电 (Target Price: 25.73) [39]

资讯日报：日本自民党在众议院选举中取得胜利 股票市场概览 港股市场表现 美股市场表现 2026 年 2 月 9 日 资讯日报 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | 指数 | 收盘价 | 日常跌 | 周常失 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | (%) | 湖铁 | | | | | | (%) | | 恒生指数 | 26.560 | (1.21) | (3.02) | 3.63 | | 恒生科技 | 5.346 | (1.11) | (6.51) | (3.08) | | 恒生国企 | 9.031 | (0.68) | (3.07) | 1.32 | | 上证指数 | 4.066 | (0.25) | (1.27) | 2.44 | | 日经225 | 53.818 | 0.81 | 1.75 | 7.78 | | 新加坡海峡 | 4.976 | (0.83) | 0.60 | 0.00 | | 标普500 | 6.798 | 1.97 | (0.10) | 1.27 | | 纳斯达克 | 22,541 | 2.18 | (1.84) | (0.91) ...

Economic Data - The University of Michigan's preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to a 6-month high of 57.3 in February, exceeding expectations of 55.0 [1] - U.S. consumer credit increased by $24.05 billion in December, surpassing the expected $9 billion [1] Stock Market Activity - Wall Street's major equity averages closed sharply higher, with the Dow reaching a new all-time high [2] - Chip stocks rallied, led by Nvidia's CEO stating that demand for AI is "incredibly high," with ARM Holdings surging over +11% and Nvidia climbing more than +7% [2] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks saw significant gains, with Bitcoin's price increasing over +11%, leading to a +26% rise in Strategy (MSTR) and over +22% in MARA Holdings (MARA) [2] - Bill Holdings (BILL) surged over +37% after raising its full-year guidance and reports of acquisition talks [2] - Amazon.com (AMZN) was the top percentage loser on the Dow and Nasdaq 100, sliding more than -5% after announcing a $200 billion AI infrastructure investment [2] Upcoming Economic Focus - Investors will focus on key U.S. economic data, including employment and inflation figures, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and earnings reports from high-profile companies [3][8] - The January jobs report is set to be released on Wednesday, with revisions expected to show a significant markdown in hiring pace [8] - January CPI data will be released on Friday, with investors looking for evidence of a downward trend in inflation [8] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson expressed cautious optimism about the U.S. economic outlook, suggesting strong productivity growth could help bring inflation back to the 2% target [6] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the need for restrictive policy to control inflation, despite recent downbeat hiring reports [6] - U.S. rate futures indicate an 84.2% probability of no rate change and a 15.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March Fed meeting [7] Corporate Earnings - Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season is ongoing, with expectations for S&P 500 companies to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The release of the Claude Opus 4.5 model by Anthropic marks a significant turning point for AI agents, leading to a substantial increase in CPU demand as the model transitions from a "super intern" to a "senior architect" [4][12] - The report anticipates a surge in CPU demand driven by the proliferation of AI agents, with server CPU configurations evolving from 1:32 to 1:4, and even reaching 1:2 in advanced products [4][60] - The CPU market is expected to experience a price increase due to rising demand, precious metal price hikes, and limited advanced process capacity, with a 10% price increase already observed as of February 2026 [4][66] Summary by Sections 01 Phenomenon of AI Agents - AI agents are defined as closed-loop intelligent systems capable of autonomous perception, planning, execution, reflection, and memory [12] - The shift from instruction-driven to goal-driven AI is highlighted, enabling end-to-end task closure [12] 02 Evolution of Opus 4.5 Model - Opus 4.5 significantly enhances coding capabilities, acting as a highly autonomous AI engineer, with improved understanding of complex tasks and better performance metrics compared to previous models [29][37] - The model introduces a balanced pricing strategy and a new "effort" parameter for precise cost and performance management [28][29] 03 Explosion of CPU Demand Under AI Agents - The report predicts that the demand for CPUs will increase significantly due to the operational needs of AI agents, which require CPUs to act as central scheduling and execution units [60][61] - The anticipated growth in the server CPU market is projected to reach $45 billion by 2026, with Intel and AMD expected to dominate the market with shares of approximately 55% and 40%, respectively [72]

Core Viewpoint - Big Tech stocks experienced significant market cap losses, totaling over $1 trillion, leading to cautious trading in the premarket session Group 1: Market Performance - As of 6:12 a.m. ET, Oracle increased by 1.5% and Microsoft by 0.8%, while Meta decreased by 0.3%, Amazon by 0.1%, Alphabet by 0.6%, and Nvidia by approximately 1% after a previous rebound of 7.9% [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - The market reacted negatively to rising expenditure outlooks from Big Tech companies, which reported a combined capital expenditure of around $120 billion for the fourth quarter, with projections reaching $660 billion by 2026, surpassing the GDP of nations like the UAE, Singapore, and Israel [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - Cloud companies are seeing increasing margins but face potential stock volatility due to macroeconomic challenges; however, management teams express confidence in their demand forecasting and capacity utilization by 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The data center industry has become the core incremental application scenario for the power equipment sector, directly driving demand growth and technological iteration for power equipment [5][2] - The report emphasizes the need to incorporate AI industry multidimensional indicators to accurately gauge the demand for power distribution equipment, given the capital expenditure scale and long investment return cycles in the data center sector [2][5] - Key indicators are constructed from three aspects: demand side (capital expenditure from leading cloud vendors), supply chain (GPU supply tracking), and AI application side (development of AI applications) [2][5] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Capital expenditure from overseas major cloud vendors reached $113.862 billion in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.30% [7] - Alibaba's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was 31.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.10% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.55% [10] - Tencent's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.05% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32.05% [10] Supply Chain - NVIDIA's total revenue in Q3 2025 was $57.006 billion, with data center product revenue reaching $51.215 billion, marking a historical peak with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.62% and a year-on-year growth of 66.44% [15] - TSMC's revenue in December 2025 was 335 billion NTD, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [22] - The CPU price index in December 2025 was 101.21, showing a slight increase from 99.04 in November [27] AI Application Side - The token call volume from January 27 to February 2, 2026, was 9.81 trillion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 26.91% [36] - The price of tokens for models scoring over 40 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index decreased by over 50% in Q3 2025 [45] - The report highlights the steady growth in the number of AI models and the increasing application deployment, which directly impacts the capital expenditure cycle of data centers [29]