Group 1: Subsidy War Among Giants - The three major platforms, Meituan, Alibaba, and JD, collectively spent nearly 800 billion yuan on food delivery subsidies in the second and third quarters of 2025, with a single quarter's expenditure reaching 444 billion yuan, a 48% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] - The subsidy war has led to a significant decline in profits for all three companies, with Meituan's CEO indicating that the food delivery business will continue to face substantial losses in the fourth quarter [4] - Alibaba's 500 billion yuan subsidy plan has been extended over three years, indicating a long-term strategy despite a reduction in fourth-quarter spending [4] Group 2: Company-Specific Strategies and Financial Impact - Alibaba views food delivery as a traffic entry point rather than a profit tool, using subsidies to convert food delivery users into consumers of higher-margin businesses, resulting in a peak daily order of 1.2 billion after four months of its flash purchase service [5] - Meituan's marketing expenses surged from 180 billion yuan to 343 billion yuan, leading to a record quarterly loss of 160 billion yuan, with its profit margin plummeting from 25.1% to 5.7% [6][7] - JD has adopted a more restrained approach, focusing on supply chain optimization and improving unit economics, resulting in a decrease in market share but an increase in user engagement [8] Group 3: Impact on Merchants and Riders - Merchants are suffering from a "false prosperity," with total order volume increasing by 7% but actual revenue declining by 4% during the subsidy war [9] - Delivery riders face increased work intensity and risks, with income pressures expected to rise once subsidies decrease, leading to potential income drops due to oversupply in the labor market [9] Group 4: Industry Implications and Regulatory Response - The prolonged subsidy war has led to market saturation and inefficiencies, with a 10% decline in soft drink production indicating a distortion in the supply chain [10] - Regulatory bodies have intervened, urging platforms to cease low-price competition and focus on service optimization, highlighting the need for a shift from a scale-driven approach to sustainable business models [10]

Core Insights - The Chinese e-commerce industry has transitioned from a traffic-driven era to a "hardcore competition" phase focused on technology and ecosystem collaboration by Q4 2025 [1][22] - Key trends include the commercialization of AI technology, the intensification of instant retail, the deepening of omnichannel operations, and the evolution of competitive dimensions [3] Group 1: AI Technology Commercialization - AI has shifted from a technology reserve to a key growth driver for e-commerce giants, with Alibaba making significant investments leading to substantial revenue growth in AI-related products [4] - JD has applied AI extensively in marketing and service, achieving over 90% coverage in intelligent customer service and an 18% increase in conversion rates for core categories [4] - Smaller merchants benefit directly from AI, with Pinduoduo's AI selection system improving ROI by 40% for partners, while Douyin and Kuaishou have reduced content production cycles by 50% [4] Group 2: Instant Retail Market Competition - Instant retail has become a critical battleground for growth, with Alibaba, JD, and Meituan competing fiercely, aiming for a trillion-yuan transaction scale within three years [6] - In Q4, the transaction volume for instant retail reached 220 billion yuan, a 65% year-on-year increase, with Meituan holding a 45% market share [6] - The market is projected to exceed one trillion yuan by 2026, with front warehouse models contributing over 50% of transaction volume [6] Group 3: Omnichannel Operations - The fragmentation of traffic has driven platforms to transition towards "omnichannel collaboration," with Douyin e-commerce integrating advertising and e-commerce traffic pools [8] - Traditional platforms are accelerating their content transformation, with Alibaba and JD enhancing their content capabilities to complement their existing strengths [8] - Omnichannel operations have become a standard in the industry, moving away from single-channel strategies [8] Group 4: Shift from Price Wars to Value Wars - As customer acquisition costs rise, platforms are shifting from price competition to "value wars," focusing on quality and service [9] - Pinduoduo's "billion support plan" aims to enhance merchant quality, while JD emphasizes "quality retail" strategies [9] - The emergence of "heart-price ratio" reflects a consumer trend prioritizing product quality and service experience over mere pricing [9] Group 5: Company-Specific Strategies - Alibaba is focusing on AI and instant retail as dual drivers for growth, but faces short-term profit pressures due to significant investments [12] - JD is leveraging high-frequency delivery to expand into local life services, showing promising conversion rates but facing challenges with ongoing losses [13] - Pinduoduo remains the only major player with positive net profit growth, emphasizing cost-effectiveness and agricultural product sales [15] - Douyin e-commerce is rapidly increasing its market share through deep integration of content and commerce, but still needs to cultivate user habits for shelf-based e-commerce [16] Group 6: Future Trends - AI is expected to fundamentally reshape the e-commerce landscape, with intelligent systems becoming new traffic hubs [17] - Instant retail is projected to evolve into a core business model, with continuous innovations in operational models [17] - The integration of content and commerce will become standard, with platforms adopting a closed-loop system for user engagement [17] Group 7: Strategic Variables - The focus for the next year will be on breakthroughs in AI technology and instant retail profitability models by major players like Alibaba and JD [22] - The progress of content platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou in shelf-based e-commerce will be crucial for determining the final shape of omnichannel integration [22]

在2025年11.26号AI人才培训发展大会暨「AI应用工程师」发布仪式现场，杭州天生不凡教育科技有限公司正式签约成为阿里巴巴钉钉AI咨询研究院咨询 核心伙伴，双方将依托钉钉生态与AI能力，共同推动企业智能化升级与AI人才培养。 本次大会于2025年11月26日在杭州阿里巴巴全球总部中心举办，由钉钉（中国）信息技术有限公司主办、钉钉AI咨询研究院承办，聚焦"培养智能化人 才，推动高质量就业，促进AI技术普惠"核心目标，旨在应对AI发展带来的组织变革与教育挑战，助力企业智能化转型。 此次天生不凡的核心伙伴加入，将进一步丰富研究院的生态服务能力——依托天生不凡在企业咨询陪跑领域的实战经验，结合研究院的AI技术与钉钉企业 级应用场景，双方将共同为企业提供从AI战略规划到落地执行的全链路服务。 《国务院关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》明确鼓励全民学习AI新知识、新技术。而据数据显示，2025年我国AI人才缺口已达500万，医疗、制造等 领域"一才难求"，企业急需AI技术与业务融合的复合型应用人才。 钉钉AI咨询研究院相关负责人袁中伟表示："AI技术激发了企业对人才的渴求，培训与 教育行业需协同推进AI人才培养， ...

外卖骑士超时免罚迎来新进展 据淘宝闪购日前消息 在前期推行的基础上 除取消超时扣款之外，淘宝闪购还推出系列组合举措，包括推出"碰一下"进门服务，与全国物业及支付 宝合作，优化社区通行；通过派单优化，持续完善提高顺路率，目前骑士顺路合单率已经达到了90%以 上，让骑士同样路程更多收入；升级防疲劳规则，对跑单时间较长的骑士进行休息提醒，优化"强制下 将在12月3日扩大覆盖到60城 包括北京、杭州、广州 武汉、成都、厦门 西安、石家庄、呼和浩特 长春、 沈阳 、大连等城市 线"功能；在推出"实时红绿灯功能"的骑士导航服务外，还在多个城市加大投入安全激励，安全排名前 列的骑士可获得现金奖励，正向激励安全出行。 淘宝闪购城市骑士保障相关负责人表示，希望通过每一项具体举措，积极推动城市骑士这一职业向有技 能认证、有成长发展、有社会保障、有职业尊严的现代服务业岗位迈进，让大家在这个岗位上获得更好 的发展和回报。 来源：第一财经、湖北发布 编辑：胡依依 淘宝闪购取消超时扣款 年底前将覆盖全国直营城市 在新规则下，骑士不再因配送超时被扣款，而是依托服务分体系实现"多劳多得、优劳优得"。骑士初始 服务分为70分，按时履约、无违规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rebound in AI-related stocks, driven by a reversal in interest rate expectations, strong performance from Alibaba's AI cloud business, and renewed inflows from southbound funds [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 28, the Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher but retreated, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.34% [1]. - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) showed resilience, rising 0.36% and maintaining a position above the 10-day moving average since hitting a low on November 21 [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - A significant shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has occurred, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising to 86.9%, up from less than 30% a week prior [4]. Group 3: AI Sector Developments - Alibaba's latest financial report revealed a 34% year-on-year increase in AI cloud revenue to 39.8 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, and a substantial 80% increase in quarterly capital expenditure [5]. - Alibaba's market share in China's AI cloud sector reached 35.8% in the first half of the year, significantly higher than its competitors [5]. Group 4: Fund Inflows - Southbound funds have resumed significant purchases in the internet sector, with Alibaba-W seeing a net inflow of 25.449 billion HKD over 11 consecutive days [6]. - Xiaomi Group-W and Meituan-W also received substantial net purchases, amounting to 13.619 billion HKD and 2.1 billion HKD, respectively [6]. Group 5: Valuation Insights - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.51, placing it in the lower valuation range compared to the NASDAQ and ChiNext indices, which have P/E ratios of 36.29 and 38.90, respectively [4][8]. - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized as a valuation "bargain" for AI stocks, with many companies deeply embedded in global supply chains and transitioning from investment phases to value realization [8]. Group 6: ETF Composition - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) tracks major internet leaders, with Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and Xiaomi Group-W being the top three holdings, accounting for 18.23%, 16.77%, and 10.21% of the fund, respectively [9][10].

周度报告——股指期货 市场波动降低，仍需宏观加码 本周全球股市走修复逻辑，主要国家指数均涨超 2%。中国股市 也迎来修复。但行情有三方面超预期，一是修复力度偏弱，上 证指数周度涨幅仅 1.4%，单周未能收涨与 3900 点以上；二是市 场缩量，周五市场成交跌破 18000 亿元，抄底博弈的力量较弱； 三是微盘股涨幅较大，融资余额放量，表明部分投机性资金仍 较为活跃。总体来看，近期地缘因素仍具有较大不确定性，短 期内市场观望情绪较重也属于正常变化，本轮行情是流动性推 动的牛市，在流动性退坡之际，股指或将维持窄幅震荡。建议 关注 12 月即将召开的重磅会议。 ★风险提示： 经济基本面修复不及预期，海外地缘风险加剧。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 股指：震荡 | 王培丞 高级分析师（股指） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： F03093911 [Table_Analyser] | | [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：aAry股] 修复偏弱 | 投资咨询号： Z0017305 | | 本周（11/24-11 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The overseas AI industry is experiencing continuous iteration of foundational large models, with increased computational power investments. Google has launched the Gemini 3 series AI models, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge against OpenAI and Anthropic [13][20][23]. - Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.5, which shows improvements in general intelligence capabilities, safety, and programming skills [14][34]. - Alibaba's Q3 report indicates a high growth rate in the domestic AI sector, with AI-related product revenues achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters [16][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI Industry Development - Google continues to enhance its AI hardware and software, launching the Gemini 3 series and the Nano Banana Pro image generation model, which supports 4K resolution and advanced image processing capabilities [13][20][23]. - Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 has been released, showcasing enhanced intelligence, safety, and programming capabilities, making it a strong competitor in the AI market [14][34]. - AWS plans to invest up to $50 billion to expand AI and supercomputing capabilities for U.S. government clients, indicating a structural boost in AI computational demand [15][40]. 2. Domestic AI Acceleration - Alibaba's Q3 report shows revenues of 247.8 billion yuan, with cloud business revenue growing by 34% and AI-related products experiencing significant demand [16][41]. - The launch of Alibaba's "Qianwen" and "Lingguang" AI applications indicates a strategic push into consumer AI, with rapid user growth [42]. - Deepseek has introduced the Math-V2 model, focusing on self-verifying mathematical reasoning, which is expected to enhance the overall AI industry's growth [18][49]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks in AI applications include Wanxing Technology, Danghong Technology, and others, while AI computing stocks include Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and others [7][50].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the wind power, lithium battery, and energy storage sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to improving supply-demand dynamics and government support [1][5][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the "anti-involution" initiative led by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), which aims to promote healthy competition and stabilize prices in the industry [5][15]. - The lithium battery sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of significant growth driven by increasing demand and government support for rational competition [15][16]. - The wind power sector is projected to experience a recovery in profitability, supported by stable bidding prices and a favorable demand outlook for offshore wind projects [1][6][13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Wind Power - The average bidding price for land-based wind turbines remains high, with expectations for continued profitability recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][6]. - Shanghai's government is accelerating the construction of offshore wind power demonstration projects, indicating a strong demand outlook for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [13][14]. Lithium Batteries - The MIIT held a meeting to discuss the lithium battery industry, emphasizing the need for self-discipline and the rejection of irrational competition [15][16]. - The report maintains a positive view on the midstream material segment of the lithium battery supply chain, anticipating a favorable market environment [15]. Energy Storage - Fluence's Q4 2025 earnings call indicated a positive trend, with AI-driven power shortages translating into substantial energy storage orders [18][19]. - The report highlights the growing demand for energy storage solutions, particularly in data centers, driven by the need for flexible interconnection and backup power solutions [19]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The NDRC has reiterated the importance of hydrogen energy in enhancing power system regulation, with new policies expected to support the development of green hydrogen projects [20][21]. - The report notes that Inner Mongolia's green hydrogen policy has improved project economics, allowing for excess electricity to be sold to the grid, which is crucial for project viability [21][22]. Photovoltaics - In October, new photovoltaic installations increased by 30% month-on-month to 12.6 GW, with expectations for total installations to reach 280-300 GW for the year [23][25]. - The report suggests bottom-fishing opportunities in the photovoltaic sector, particularly in companies involved in high-efficiency modules and innovative technologies [25][24]. Grid and Power Equipment - The report highlights significant bidding activity in the ultra-high voltage (UHV) equipment sector, with a record 16.5 billion yuan in contracts awarded [29][30]. - The report anticipates continued high demand for UHV projects, with several key projects expected to be approved in 2026 [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The latest brokerage "golden stocks" for December highlight a focus on sectors such as electronics, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage, with themes like domestic computing power, robotics, and consumer recovery gaining traction [2][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - In November, the A-share market exhibited a volatile pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.67%, while the ChiNext Index and STAR Market Index fell by 4.23% and 6.24%, respectively [5]. - The top-performing "golden stock" in November was Shanghai Port Bay, recommended by Huatai Securities, which saw a monthly increase of 60.15% [6]. - Other notable performers included BlueFocus Media with a 45.99% increase and Yaxing Integration with a 43.57% rise, both recommended by different brokerages [6]. Group 2: December Golden Stocks - The December golden stock list shows a diverse allocation strategy, with significant attention on electronics, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage sectors [2][9]. - The electronics sector remains the most favored, with companies like Haiguang Information and Huadian Heavy Industries receiving multiple recommendations from different brokerages [11][12]. - In the power equipment sector, companies like Goldwind Technology and Ningde Times are highlighted for their strong order growth and competitive advantages [12]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The focus on robotics is increasing, with companies like Hengli Hydraulic and Kaidi Co. being recommended for their growth potential in the robotics space [16]. - In the pharmaceuticals sector, innovative companies such as Innovent Biologics and Kangfang Biologics are emphasized for their competitive global products [15]. - The consumer sector is also gaining traction, with companies like Midea Group and Alibaba being included in the recommendations due to their attractive dividend yields and growth prospects [14]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Brokerages generally maintain a bullish outlook for the market, expecting it to remain in a bull phase, although short-term fluctuations may occur [3][18]. - Analysts suggest that the market's focus should be on growth sectors, particularly technology and advanced manufacturing, while also considering defensive and consumer stocks in the short term [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The advancements in AI technology, such as the release of DeepSeekMath-V2 and Google's Gemini 3 Pro, demonstrate that the potential of large models is far from being fully realized. Continuous innovation in algorithms and the scaling law are key drivers in dispelling the notion of an "AI bubble" [18][19]. - Alibaba's recent financial results show strong growth in AI-related products, with a 34% increase in revenue for Alibaba Cloud and a 29% acceleration in external commercialization revenue. The company emphasizes that AI is not a bubble, as the demand for AI solutions is robust and supported by solid return potential [19][20]. Summary by Sections AI Innovations - DeepSeek launched a new mathematical reasoning model, DeepSeekMath-V2, which utilizes a self-verifying training framework and has achieved gold medal levels in competitions [11]. - Google's Gemini 3 Pro highlights the importance of high-quality training data, showcasing the ongoing effectiveness of the scaling law in AI model development [16]. Alibaba's AI Strategy - Alibaba's CEO stated that there is no "AI bubble" in the next three years, supported by strong demand and reasonable return potential. The company is focusing on both AI to B and AI to C strategies [22][23]. - The demand for AI capabilities is increasing across various industries, with Alibaba Cloud's AI-related product revenue growing for nine consecutive quarters [20][21]. Market Dynamics - The global AI server supply chain is experiencing shortages, with a significant expansion cycle required to meet the growing demand. This supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist for the next two to three years [22][23]. - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in computing power, such as Cambrian, Huagong Information, and others, as potential investment opportunities [4][25].