阿里的"梦"，撞上了经营利润骤降85%。 文/每日资本论 沸沸扬扬的外卖大战与AI的喧嚣声中，这家中国知名科技公司露出了疲态。 近日，阿里巴巴发布的2026财年第二季度财报显示，本季度，其总收入达到2477.95亿元，剔除已出售业务影响后，同口径收入同比增长15%，这一增长主 要得益于AI驱动的云业务和快速扩张的即时零售板块。 从其核心板块来看，电商集团收入1325.8 亿元，同比增长16%，其中即时零售收入229.06 亿元，同比激增60%，成为最大增长亮点。云智能集团营收398.2 亿元，同比增速攀升至34%，较前两个季度的 17.7%、22% 实现加速突破。 但利润端的暴跌却撕开了增长的面纱——集团经营利润同比骤降85%至53.65亿元，经调整EBITA（息税及摊销前利润）也同比下降78%至90.73亿元，利润 大幅下滑同样源于对AI和即时零售的战略投入。 简而言之，阿里的基本盘电商这块，不能说不好，也不是简单与竞争对手作对比，但市场份额正在被大小电商蚕食却是不争的事实。而一路走来，那个"p夕 夕"从被质疑到被众多同行学习，也说明老牌电商们的危机感。 显然，找到另一个强支撑势在必行。从发展轨迹来看，多元 ...

Alibaba Group Holding BABA.N BABA US EQUITY: INTERNET & NEW MEDIA AIiCloud likely to accelerate further QC's loss likely to narrow significantly; maintain Buy | Year-end 31 Mar | FY25 | | FY26F | FY27F | | | FY28F | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Currency (CNY) | Actual | Old | New | Old | New | Old | New | | Revenue (mn) | | | | 996,347 1,051,529 1,054,166 1,166,9981,209,156 1,322,294 1,379,167 | | | | | Reported net profit (mn) | 129,470 | 107,136 | 119,904 | 143,482 150,027 | | 183,8 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Internet** industry, particularly developments in **AI** and **chatbot applications**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **AI Model Developments**: - US AI models have regained top positions in rankings, with Google releasing **Gemini 3 Pro** and **Nano Banana Pro**, showcasing superior capabilities compared to existing models despite concerns about diminishing returns in AI scaling laws [1][8][29]. - Chinese AI models are expected to catch up within 3-6 months after US releases, indicating a competitive landscape [1][8]. 2. **Consumer AI Applications**: - **Alibaba** launched the **Qwen App**, achieving **10 million downloads** in the first week, aiming to be a productivity assistant that supports shopping and local services [1][9]. - **Ant Group's LingGuang App** reached **2 million downloads** in 6 days, focusing on AI coding capabilities [1][11]. - **Tencent** integrated AI assistant **Yuanbao** into **WeChat Pay**, enhancing operational efficiency for SMEs [1][11]. 3. **AI Infrastructure Demand**: - There is a growing demand for AI inference, with Chinese data centers expected to see a demand upcycle starting in **2026**. **Alibaba** noted that new AI demand is outpacing infrastructure capacity, leading to an optimistic capex outlook [1][12]. - **Bytedance's Volcano Engine** serves a significant portion of top brands and institutions, indicating strong market penetration [1][12]. 4. **Capex Trends**: - **Alibaba's** capex increased by **80% year-over-year** to **Rmb 32 billion**, while **Tencent's** capex declined due to chip availability issues [1][8]. - Alibaba's positive capex outlook is attributed to its AI infrastructure capabilities, contrasting with Tencent's more cautious approach [1][8]. 5. **AI Model Releases**: - **Xiaomi** introduced the **MiMo-Embodied model**, integrating autonomous driving and embodied AI capabilities [1][12]. - **Tencent** released **HunyuanVideo 1.5**, a video generation model with competitive performance metrics [1][12]. 6. **Market Dynamics**: - The Chinese AI market is characterized by a mix of open-source models and competitive pricing, with **80% of AI startups** utilizing open-source models from China [1][12]. - The gap in multi-modal capabilities between Chinese and global players is narrowing, with Chinese models differentiating through cost and speed [1][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Valuation Comparisons**: Tencent and Alibaba are trading at lower valuations compared to global peers, suggesting potential upside for investors [1][8]. - **Engagement Trends**: Domestic AI applications have seen a **15% month-over-month increase** in engagement, driven by platforms like **Doubao** and **DeepSeek** [1][17]. - **E-commerce and Local Services**: E-commerce engagement grew by **11% year-over-year**, with platforms like **JD** and **Taobao** showing strong performance [1][16]. - **Regulatory Environment**: Cross-border e-commerce faces increasing regulatory pressure, particularly affecting platforms like **Temu** [1][16]. This summary encapsulates the key developments and insights from the conference call, highlighting the competitive landscape and growth potential within the China Internet and AI sectors.

Key Takeaways from the TMT Conference on China's Internet and AI Sector Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **China Internet** and **AI** sectors, particularly the advancements in **generative AI (GenAI)** applications and domestic AI chip solutions in 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights 1. **Surge in Generative AI Demand**: The demand for GenAI applications in China is rapidly increasing, supported by government policies and diverse use cases, leading to a significant rise in token consumption across various industries. The State Council's initiative aims for a penetration rate of intelligent terminals and AI agents to exceed 70% by 2027 and 90% by 2030 [2][3]. 2. **Shift to Domestic AI Chips**: Chinese hyperscalers are transitioning to domestic AI chip solutions, redirecting capital from foreign suppliers to local alternatives like Huawei's Ascend and Baidu's Kunlun. This shift is driven by U.S. export restrictions and government subsidies covering up to 50% of power costs for data centers using local chips [3][4]. 3. **Investment in AI Infrastructure**: Total investments in AI infrastructure in China are projected to reach **$98 billion** in 2025, with a focus on enhancing local sourcing and reducing supply chain vulnerabilities [3][4]. 4. **Advancements in AI Chip Technology**: Key players like Huawei and Baidu are producing competitive AI chips that meet the performance needs for GenAI deployment. Huawei's chips are now comparable to Nvidia's for inference tasks, enabling scalable applications [4][9]. 5. **Operational Efficiency Gains**: Enterprises are leveraging GenAI primarily for operational cost reductions and efficiency improvements, with sectors like internet, manufacturing, and finance adopting these tools for various applications [10][12]. 6. **Consumer Adoption of GenAI Tools**: General-purpose GenAI tools, such as chatbots and AI search engines, are gaining popularity in China, often provided for free to attract users. Meanwhile, specialized applications are emerging with monetization strategies [11][12]. 7. **Integration of GenAI in Mobile Apps**: Mid-to-large Chinese internet firms are embedding GenAI features into flagship mobile applications, enhancing user experiences and driving revenue growth. For instance, Tencent's Weixin reported a **15% year-over-year revenue increase** to **$27.1 billion** in Q3 2025, attributed to AI-driven ad monetization [12][13]. 8. **Evolution of GenAI Applications**: GenAI applications are evolving into sophisticated AI agents capable of autonomous task execution, with platforms like Baidu's GenFlow 3.0 serving over **20 million users** [13][14]. 9. **Market Opportunities for Custom AI Agents**: The emergence of marketplaces for custom AI agents indicates significant revenue potential, transforming GenAI from assistive tools to operational cores in e-commerce and other sectors [14][15]. Additional Important Insights - The strategic reallocation of resources towards domestic AI solutions not only enhances China's AI sovereignty but also aligns with government mandates for local sourcing in public data centers [3][4]. - The dual approach of offering free general-purpose tools while developing monetized vertical applications is driving growth in the overall AI ecosystem in China [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the TMT conference, highlighting the rapid advancements and strategic shifts within China's internet and AI sectors.

Summary of Conference Call Records Company: Alibaba Key Points - **Financial Performance**: Alibaba's EBITDA decreased by 78% year-on-year, primarily due to rapid expansion in e-commerce and cloud businesses, along with significant investments in retail, user experience, and technology, leading to a net profit decline of 53% to 21 billion yuan. Operating cash flow fell by 168% to 100.1 billion yuan [2][3] - **Revenue Breakdown**: - E-commerce group revenue accounted for 16% of total revenue, with customer management revenue at 10%. Instant retail saw strong growth of 60% to 22.9 billion yuan. - International digital commerce group revenue increased by 10% to 35 billion yuan, benefiting from supply chain advantages. - Cloud intelligence business revenue grew by 44% year-on-year to 39.8 billion yuan, driven by public cloud and AI-related products [2][5][6] - **AI Market Position**: Alibaba Cloud holds a 35.8% market share in China's AI sector, significantly outperforming competitors. The company has invested approximately 120 billion yuan in AI and cloud technology infrastructure over the past four quarters [2][6] Company: Dell Key Points - **Financial Performance**: Dell's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 increased by 11% year-on-year to 27 billion USD. Infrastructure solutions, including servers and networking, grew rapidly by 37%, accounting for 24% of total revenue. The company has raised its full-year revenue forecast to between 111.2 billion and 112.2 billion USD, with AI server shipments expected to reach 25 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of over 150% [2][7] Industry Insights - **Storage Market Conditions**: The storage market is currently experiencing significant supply constraints, with major manufacturers indicating tight supply. Prices have risen sharply in the fourth quarter, with large manufacturers willing to accept price increases of 30-50%. Demand is expected to remain tight in the first quarter of next year, with potential easing in the second quarter. Gartner predicts a 40-50% quarter-on-quarter increase in DRAM prices [4][8] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Focus on the storage industry chain, including companies like Baiwei Storage and Jiangbolong. - PCB industry chain investments, including Shenghong Technology and Hudian Co. - Domestic computing power direction, with attention to companies like SMIC. - Upcoming IPOs such as Muxi and Moer Thread, which are expected to be key players in advanced process requirements next year [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing adoption of Chinese open-source AI models by Silicon Valley startups, highlighting their competitive advantages over traditional closed-source models from American companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. This shift raises questions about the sustainability of the closed-source model approach in the U.S. AI industry [1][4][10]. Group 1: Adoption of Chinese AI Models - Many U.S. AI startups are increasingly utilizing Chinese open-source AI models due to their lower costs, higher customization, and strong privacy protection, with some models performing comparably to leading American models [1][4][6]. - Reflection AI, a startup founded by Misha Laskin, aims to provide American alternatives to these high-performance Chinese models, reflecting a growing trend in the industry [2][4]. - The acceptance of Chinese models is seen as a potential challenge to the U.S. AI industry, as investors have heavily backed American companies, raising doubts about the actual advantages of U.S. models [4][10]. Group 2: Performance and Cost Efficiency - Chinese models like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen have made significant technological advancements, closing the performance gap with American closed-source models [5][9]. - Companies like Exa have reported that running Chinese models on their own hardware can be faster and cheaper than using models from OpenAI or Google [4][5]. - The cost-effectiveness of open-source models is crucial for startups, with some users preferring local processing for privacy reasons, further driving the adoption of Chinese models [6][7]. Group 3: Ecosystem and Community Support - The growing ecosystem around Chinese open-source models is attracting more developers, as these models are often accompanied by extensive training resources and community support [7][8]. - Platforms like Kilo Code show a preference for Chinese models among developers, indicating a shift in the default starting point for model customization [8][9]. - The rapid release cycle of Chinese models, with Alibaba launching new models approximately every 20 days, contrasts with the slower pace of American companies, highlighting a competitive edge [9][10]. Group 4: U.S. Response and Future Outlook - The U.S. government has recognized the need to encourage the development of open-source AI models, as evidenced by the release of the AI Action Plan and new open-source initiatives from companies like OpenAI and the Allen Institute [12][13]. - The ATOM initiative aims to reclaim the U.S. leadership position in open-source models, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a competitive edge in the AI landscape [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the global economy and presents a significant investment opportunity for investors through various fund options, particularly ETFs and public/private funds [1]. ETF Investment - ETFs are highlighted as an efficient tool for investors who prefer to follow industry trends without the hassle of selecting fund managers. The main focus of AI investment in A-shares is on "computing power infrastructure" and "application end" [2]. - Core broad-based ETFs include the AI ETF (515980) and AI ETF (515070), which track the China Securities Artificial Intelligence Index. These ETFs cover leading companies across the AI value chain, including chip manufacturers (e.g., Cambricon, Haiguang Information), large models and algorithms (e.g., iFlytek), and application scenarios (e.g., Hikvision, Kingsoft) [3][4]. - Segment-specific ETFs such as Cloud Computing 50 ETF (516630) and Communication ETF (515880) focus on computing power hardware and high-speed network facilities that support AI data transmission, respectively. The rationale is that hardware providers often see early performance returns in the AI development phase [5][6][7][8]. Public Funds (Active Equity) - Public funds rely on professional stock selection to seek alpha. The A-share market experiences rapid style rotation, and skilled fund managers can rotate investments within the AI value chain based on fundamental research [9][10]. - Focus on veteran managers in the "digital economy" and "TMT" sectors, particularly those with a track record during the mobile internet wave from 2013-2015. These managers tend to select companies with real performance rather than mere narratives [11][12]. - Quantitative public funds, such as those tracking the CSI 500 or CSI 1000 indices, excel in the active mid- and small-cap companies within the AI sector, often outperforming benchmark indices [13]. Private Funds - Private funds are characterized by greater flexibility in position management and the use of derivatives for risk hedging. They can effectively manage volatility in the AI sector by controlling drawdowns during declines and capitalizing on gains during upswings [14][15]. - Notable institutions include Huanfang Quantitative, Jiukun Investment, and Yifan Investment, which leverage deep learning to uncover market patterns and opportunities that active management may overlook [16]. - The article also highlights the importance of investing in global AI leaders through local private funds, as the U.S. maintains a dominant position in high-end computing and foundational models [18]. Recommended Fund Analysis - The Keywise Penguin No. 1 fund is recommended for its strong reputation and global investment scope, covering major tech markets and key AI players like Nvidia, Microsoft, and TSMC. The fund's strategy includes both long and short positions to protect net value during market fluctuations [19][20][21]. Investment Strategy Summary - The article concludes with a tailored investment strategy for different investor types, recommending ETFs for conservative investors, public funds for those seeking alpha, and the Keywise Penguin No. 1 for high-net-worth individuals looking for global exposure to AI assets [22].

Core Insights - The article discusses the intense competition in the food delivery market, highlighting that there are no clear winners in the ongoing battle, particularly in Q3 2025, where both Alibaba and Meituan faced significant losses [4][10]. - Meituan's core local business segment reported a revenue decline of 2.8% year-on-year, resulting in an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan, marking its first loss since Q4 2022 [4][9]. - Alibaba's aggressive strategy led to a profit drop of approximately 30 billion yuan, with significant investments in subsidies that have nearly exhausted their planned 50 billion yuan budget [10]. Meituan's Performance - Meituan's operating profit for its core local business was 14.6 billion yuan in Q3 2024, contrasting sharply with a loss of 14.1 billion yuan in the same period this year, indicating a significant shift in financial performance [9]. - The increase in sales and marketing expenses by 90.9% to 35.9% of revenue reflects the high cost of maintaining market share amid fierce competition [9][10]. - Despite the losses, Meituan's average order value (AOV) remains significantly higher than competitors, with over 70% market share in orders above 30 yuan [10]. Competitive Landscape - The competition has intensified with new entrants and existing players like Alibaba and JD.com increasing their efforts in the food delivery and local services market [13]. - Douyin (TikTok) is emerging as a formidable competitor, with its life services projected to exceed 800 billion yuan in GTV by 2025, narrowing the gap with Meituan [13]. - The article notes that both Alibaba and Meituan are still in the process of optimizing their user experience (UE) and expanding their instant retail offerings [11][12]. New Business Developments - Meituan's new business segment saw a revenue increase of 15.9% year-on-year to 28 billion yuan, although operating losses increased by 24.5% to 1.3 billion yuan [17]. - The company is expanding its offline retail efforts, with initiatives like the "Happy Monkey" discount supermarket and "Little Elephant" supermarket gaining traction [18]. - Meituan's overseas business, particularly in Brazil, is set to launch in December, with significant investments aimed at capturing market share in a competitive landscape dominated by iFood [19][20]. Future Outlook - Meituan's management expresses confidence in maintaining efficiency and market share despite ongoing losses, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic focus [7][15]. - The company aims to leverage its strengths in high-value orders and continue exploring new opportunities in both domestic and international markets [10][20].

E-commerce and New Retail - Alibaba Group donated 20 million HKD following a fire in Hong Kong, while ByteDance and Didi contributed 10 million HKD each. Pinduoduo also donated 10 million HKD and launched a public welfare section for firefighting supplies [1] - Alibaba's Q2 revenue for FY2026 reached 247.8 billion CNY, a 5% year-on-year increase, with cloud revenue growing 34% and AI-related products seeing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [2] - JD Industrial has received approval for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with projected revenues of 14.135 billion CNY in 2022, increasing to 20.4 billion CNY in 2024 [3] Logistics and Supply Chain - Jitu Express launched its first industrial-grade automated sorting system in Thailand, improving sorting efficiency by over 100% and achieving a sorting accuracy of over 99% [4] Life Services - Meituan reported a Q3 loss of 14.1 billion CNY in its core local business segment due to irrational competition in the food delivery industry, with expectations of continued losses in Q4 [5][6] - Didi's Q3 order volume reached 4.685 billion, a 13.8% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 1.5 billion CNY [7] - Taobao Flash Sale announced the cancellation of late fee deductions, expanding to 60 cities, aiming to enhance rider protection and user experience [8] Innovation and Investment - Ruiyun Cold Chain completed nearly 100 million CNY in A+ round financing, focusing on digital capabilities and international expansion [9] - Soul App submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reporting a revenue CAGR of over 15% from 2022 to 2024 and achieving stable profitability since 2023 [10][11]

Group 1: Subsidy War Among Giants - The three major platforms, Meituan, Alibaba, and JD, collectively spent nearly 800 billion yuan on food delivery subsidies in the second and third quarters of 2025, with a single quarter's expenditure reaching 444 billion yuan, a 48% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] - The subsidy war has led to a significant decline in profits for all three companies, with Meituan's CEO indicating that the food delivery business will continue to face substantial losses in the fourth quarter [4] - Alibaba's 500 billion yuan subsidy plan has been extended over three years, indicating a long-term strategy despite a reduction in fourth-quarter spending [4] Group 2: Company-Specific Strategies and Financial Impact - Alibaba views food delivery as a traffic entry point rather than a profit tool, using subsidies to convert food delivery users into consumers of higher-margin businesses, resulting in a peak daily order of 1.2 billion after four months of its flash purchase service [5] - Meituan's marketing expenses surged from 180 billion yuan to 343 billion yuan, leading to a record quarterly loss of 160 billion yuan, with its profit margin plummeting from 25.1% to 5.7% [6][7] - JD has adopted a more restrained approach, focusing on supply chain optimization and improving unit economics, resulting in a decrease in market share but an increase in user engagement [8] Group 3: Impact on Merchants and Riders - Merchants are suffering from a "false prosperity," with total order volume increasing by 7% but actual revenue declining by 4% during the subsidy war [9] - Delivery riders face increased work intensity and risks, with income pressures expected to rise once subsidies decrease, leading to potential income drops due to oversupply in the labor market [9] Group 4: Industry Implications and Regulatory Response - The prolonged subsidy war has led to market saturation and inefficiencies, with a 10% decline in soft drink production indicating a distortion in the supply chain [10] - Regulatory bodies have intervened, urging platforms to cease low-price competition and focus on service optimization, highlighting the need for a shift from a scale-driven approach to sustainable business models [10]