Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated at the bottom and dropped to the previous low. The market game intensified, but the rapid decline in terminal demand is expected to dominate the medium - term iron ore prices. The overall iron ore fundamental situation has changed significantly, and it is expected that iron ore prices will mainly operate at a high level with a downward trend [4]. - The demand side shows a situation where domestic demand continues to weaken while overseas steel demand maintains high growth. The valuation of iron ore in the black series remains high, but as domestic terminal demand declines rapidly, the high - valuation of iron ore prices is expected to fall [32]. - For trading strategies, take a bearish view on single - side trading, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a bearish view on single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment has been continuously declining from a high level, approaching the level of the same period last year. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%/23 million tons. The weekly shipment from Australia is 17.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%/4.6 million tons, and that from Brazil is 7.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%/11.4 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines in the first three quarters increased by 10 million tons year - on - year, and the overseas shipment in the fourth quarter is expected to remain at a relatively high level [7][15]. - **Non - mainstream Ore Shipment**: The global shipment of non - mainstream iron ore has increased slightly month - on - month. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments is 5.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%/16.4 million tons. The shipment of non - mainstream ore is expected to maintain a high level year - on - year in the fourth quarter, but the year - on - year increase is expected to slow down [16][17]. - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore continued to increase rapidly, and the total domestic inventory of imported iron ore increased by nearly 3.3 million tons month - on - month. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, with an accumulation of over 10 million tons, and is currently at a high level in the past five years [23][26]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In the third quarter of 2025 to date, domestic molten iron production increased by 3.5%/11.3 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 3.2%/12.3 million tons year - on - year. However, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.4%/9.3 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand for non - building materials decreased by 1.7%/3.2 million tons year - on - year. The domestic consumption of crude steel (excluding exports) decreased by 3.4%/12.3 million tons year - on - year. The demand for steel in the manufacturing industry has turned from positive growth in the first half of the year to negative growth [32]. - **Overseas Demand**: From January to September, the consumption of overseas iron ore decreased by 2%/15 million tons year - on - year, but the consumption of overseas iron elements increased by nearly 4%/27.6 million tons year - on - year. The consumption of overseas iron elements has been at a high level year - on - year since the second quarter, continuously contributing to the increase. The demand for crude steel in overseas India remains at a relatively high level [32].

Core Viewpoint - A London judge has ruled that BHP Group is liable for the environmental disaster in Brazil caused by a dam collapse a decade ago, which released significant amounts of toxic waste into a major river [1] Group 1: Legal and Financial Implications - The ruling may lead to substantial financial liabilities for BHP Group as it faces potential compensation claims related to the disaster [1] - The decision could set a precedent for future environmental liability cases involving multinational corporations operating in foreign countries [1] Group 2: Environmental Impact - The dam collapse resulted in the release of tons of toxic waste, significantly affecting the local ecosystem and communities dependent on the river [1] - The incident is recognized as Brazil's worst environmental disaster, highlighting the severe consequences of industrial negligence [1]

BHP is liable for the 2015 collapse of a dam in southeastern Brazil, London’s High Court ruled on Friday, in a lawsuit the claimants’ lawyers previously valued at up to 36 billion pounds ($48 billion).Hundreds of thousands of Brazilians, dozens of local governments and around 2,000 businesses sued BHP over the collapse of the Fundao dam in Mariana, southeastern Brazil, which was owned and operated by BHP and Vale’s Samarco joint venture. Brazil’s worst environmental disaster unleashed a wave of toxic sludge ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction. The short - term is expected to maintain range consolidation. Unilateral strategies should focus on high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on the Shanghai - London ratio [3][65][66]. - The tight pattern of the zinc ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The inventory trends at home and abroad are diverging [2][62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In August 2025, the global zinc market supply surplus expanded to 47,900 tons. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc supply surplus was 154,000 tons. From July to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 2.1712 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.57%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc output was 9.1482 million tons, basically the same as the cumulative output of last year [11]. - The statistical sample of this report shows that the zinc concentrate output in the third quarter of 2025 was 1.4424 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 4.254 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.31% [11]. 3.2 Glencore - In 2025, Glencore's zinc concentrate production guidance was adjusted to 94 - 980,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 244,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2.94% and a year - on - year increase of 7.86%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 709,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.22% [19]. 3.3 Teck - In 2025, Teck's zinc concentrate production guidance was 525,000 - 575,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 150,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.59%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 456,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.81% [24]. 3.4 Boliden - In the third quarter of 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate output was 108,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 17.75%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 317,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.12% [27]. 3.5 Vedanta - In the third quarter of 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate output was 262,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.16% and a year - on - year increase of 8.26%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 785,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.65% [32]. 3.6 Nexa - In 2025, Nexa's zinc concentrate production guidance was 300,000 - 336,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 83,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 13.88% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 224,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [37]. 3.7 MMG - In 2025, MMG's zinc concentrate production guidance was 215,000 - 240,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 58,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.58% and a year - on - year increase of 26.49%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 166,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.85% [44]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - In 2025, Newmont's zinc concentrate production guidance was 236,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 59,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11.52% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 184,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.30% [47][48]. 3.9 BHP - In the 2025 fiscal year, BHP's zinc concentrate production guidance was 90,000 - 110,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 36,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.95% and a year - on - year increase of 85.77%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 102,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 91.03% [49]. 3.10 South32 - In the 2026 fiscal year, South32's zinc concentrate production guidance was 40,000 tons, a decrease compared with the 2025 fiscal year. In the third quarter of 2025, the zinc concentrate output was 8,300 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.40%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 29,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31.74% [50][51]. 3.11 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production guidance was 174,700 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous period. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 45,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 46.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 130,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.55% [52]. 3.12 Industrials Pelones - In the third quarter of 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate output was 63,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 181,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.68% [54]. 3.13 Fresnillo plc - In 2025, Fresnillo plc's zinc concentrate production guidance was 93,000 - 103,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 24,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.41%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 78,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.61% [57]. 3.14 Market Outlook - The tight pattern of the ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The domestic and foreign inventory trends are diverging. Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction [62][63][65].

BHP can be held liable over the 2015 collapse of a dam in southeastern Brazil, London’s High Court has ruled, in a lawsuit the claimants’ lawyers previously valued at up to $48.32 billion.Hundreds of thousands of Brazilians, dozens of local governments and around 2000 businesses sued BHP over the collapse of the Fundao dam in Mariana, southeastern Brazil, which was owned and operated by BHP and Vale’s Samarco joint venture.Brazil’s worst environmental disaster unleashed a wave of toxic sludge that killed 19 ...

Core Viewpoint - BHP can be held liable for the 2015 dam collapse in southeastern Brazil, as ruled by London's High Court [1] Group 1 - The ruling indicates potential legal and financial repercussions for BHP regarding the incident [1]

Project Overview and Latest Developments - The Simandou iron ore project in southeastern Guinea is one of the largest undeveloped mines globally, with iron ore reserves of 2.4 billion tons and a total resource estimate nearing 5 billion tons, featuring high-grade ore with a content of 66%-67% [2] - The project includes a vertically integrated mining operation and unprecedented infrastructure development in Guinea, with a total designed annual capacity of 120 million tons from its four mining blocks [2] - The project is a joint investment exceeding $20 billion, involving multiple stakeholders including China Baowu, Rio Tinto, and the Guinean government [2] Transportation Infrastructure - A comprehensive transportation system has been constructed, including a 650-kilometer railway connecting the inland mine to the coast and a port with a total export capacity of 120 million tons per year [3] - The total investment in the transportation infrastructure is approximately $12.3 billion, with $8.8 billion allocated for rail and $3.5 billion for port facilities [3] Production and Economic Impact - The project officially commenced commercial operations on November 11, 2025, with an expected GDP growth contribution of 26% for Guinea by 2030 [4] - The first shipment of 2 million tons of iron ore departed for China, with annual shipments projected to be between 2.5 million and 3 million tons in 2025 [4] - Production will ramp up gradually, with expectations of reaching 60 million tons annually by 2026 [5] Market Influence - The project is set to alter the global iron ore supply landscape, potentially increasing Africa's share from 3% to 10%-15% by 2030, while reducing Australia's share from 60% to 45%-50% [6][7] - Upon full production, Simandou will add 120 million tons of high-grade iron ore to the market, accounting for approximately 5% of global supply [7] Pricing Dynamics - The project is expected to challenge the existing pricing structure dominated by Australian and Brazilian companies, enhancing China's bargaining power in iron ore negotiations [8][10] - The introduction of a new pricing index, the "North Iron Index," will directly compete with traditional pricing benchmarks [9] Steel Industry Transformation - The high-grade iron ore from Simandou is anticipated to drive upgrades in the steel industry, supporting lower carbon emissions and aligning with global green steel trends [11] - The project is expected to reduce steel production costs by 10%-15%, saving over 20 billion yuan annually for Chinese steel companies [11][12] Cost Structure and Future Projections - The production cost of Simandou is estimated to be between $60-$70 per ton, competitive with other major producers despite higher infrastructure costs [13] - In the medium to long term, the project is likely to lead to a decline in iron ore prices, with projections suggesting a drop to $70-$80 per ton over the next 2-5 years [15]

Core Viewpoint - The mining giants showcased their transformation at the recently concluded China International Import Expo, highlighting a shift from traditional iron ore to new energy metals and low-carbon technologies, particularly copper, which is emerging as a key focus for several iron ore companies [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Major mining companies like Vale, Rio Tinto, and BHP are diversifying their product offerings, moving beyond iron ore to include new energy metals in response to the plateauing demand for steel [2]. - The competition in the industry is evolving from a "black" (traditional) to a "green" (sustainable) focus, with companies exploring ways to produce greener iron ore and assist downstream steel producers in reducing carbon emissions [1][2]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Vale's financial report indicates that iron ore remains its primary product, generating $8.423 billion in net revenue for Q3 2025, while copper and nickel revenues were significantly lower at $1.086 billion and $1.01 billion, respectively [4]. - Vale is also expanding its copper production capacity in Brazil, with plans to increase annual output by 32% to approximately 350,000 tons by 2030, aiming for a long-term target of 700,000 tons [4]. - BHP's interest in copper is evident from its previous attempts to acquire Anglo American for £31.1 billion (approximately $38.8 billion), which would have made it the largest copper producer globally [4]. Group 3: Green Initiatives - Mining companies are increasingly integrating sustainability into their operations, with Vale showcasing its eco-friendly iron ore products that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from steel production by up to 10% [6][9]. - BHP is utilizing innovative methods to convert carbon dioxide into high-value products, while Rio Tinto is developing technologies that significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions during aluminum production [9].

Core Viewpoint - BHP has been ordered by Australia's Federal Court to compensate 85 coal mine workers for unlawfully requiring them to work during Christmas and Boxing Day holidays [1] Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Implications - The Federal Court's ruling highlights the legal obligations of companies regarding holiday work and employee rights [1] - The case emphasizes the importance of compliance with labor laws in the mining industry [1] Group 2: Impact on Workforce - The compensation order affects 85 workers employed by BHP's labor hire arm in Queensland, indicating potential financial implications for the company [1] - This ruling may influence BHP's labor practices and policies moving forward to avoid similar legal issues [1]

Group 1 - The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) reported a decline of over 7% in copper production from Codelco, reaching 115,600 tons by September 2025 [1] - The Escondida copper mine, owned by BHP, saw an increase in copper production of nearly 17%, totaling 118,600 tons [1] - The Collahuasi project experienced a significant drop in copper production, decreasing by 26% to 38,000 tons [1]