Core Viewpoint - After the double festival, supply and demand remain stable, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase, and both contract and spot prices showing month-on-month stability. The demand for dairy products continues to face pressure, with ambient temperature products performing weaker than low-temperature ones. However, deep processing and overseas markets are experiencing rapid growth from a low base, indicating a promising future [1] Dairy Industry - Milk prices are stabilizing after the holiday season, indicating a bottoming phase [1] - Demand for dairy products is under pressure, particularly for ambient temperature products compared to low-temperature ones [1] - Deep processing and overseas markets are growing rapidly from a low base, suggesting a bright outlook for the future [1] Beef Industry - In Q3, beef prices have shown high volatility, with a cumulative reduction in stock expected to exceed 10% since the beginning of 2024 [1] - By 2026, there is anticipated downward pressure on beef supply, referencing the previous cycle's reduction and price recovery rhythm [1] - The current cycle for live cattle prices is expected to have upward potential, with a positive outlook for the beef and raw milk cycle resonance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that live cattle prices have room for growth, while milk prices remain at historically low levels. The ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory and the gradual impact of the reduction in beef breeding cows are expected to improve the performance of upstream breeding companies. The outlook for raw milk and beef cycles is positive, suggesting a potential upward trend in prices and profitability for the industry [1]. Summary by Category Raw Milk - After the double festival, supply and demand are relatively stable, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase. The overall supply-demand situation has remained stable since Q3, continuing in an oversupply state, with contract prices remaining flat [2]. - The demand for dairy products is under pressure, with a significant decline in sales since Q3 2025, exceeding double digits. The performance of ambient products is notably weaker than that of chilled products. Domestic brands hold only 4% of the market share in deep processing, indicating substantial room for domestic replacement [2]. Beef Cattle - Live cattle prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations, with a cumulative reduction in inventory exceeding 10% since 2024. Attention is drawn to changes in supply by 2026 [3]. - The prices of live cattle and cull cows have been fluctuating at high levels since Q3 2025, with cull cow prices improving, which will enhance profit margins. However, profits are still significantly below the peak of the previous cycle [3]. Future Outlook - Domestic liquid milk demand remains under pressure, but there is potential for growth in deep processing and export markets. The supply-side reduction in inventory is expected to slow down, with expectations for slight acceleration in inventory reduction during the off-season [4]. - The reduction of breeding cows may exceed 10% since 2024, leading to a shortage in domestic cattle supply, which is a key driver for the current rise in beef prices. The previous cycle saw an 11% decline in inventory, resulting in a price increase of over 60% for fattening cattle. The current increase in live cattle prices is still below 20%, indicating further potential for price growth [4].

Core Viewpoint - Significant real estate policy announcements lead to noticeable improvements in housing sales area approximately 4-10 months later, while the turning point for new construction area typically manifests 8-20 months post-policy [1] Group 1: Policy Impact on Housing Market - Housing sales area shows clear improvement following major real estate policy releases [1] - New construction area experiences a lag in response to policy changes, with effects seen later than housing sales [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Capital markets tend to react ahead of time to policy changes, often leading to early price movements [1] - The building materials sector exhibits high sensitivity to real estate policies, frequently initiating upward trends in stock prices after favorable policy announcements [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Building materials stocks significantly outperform the Shanghai Composite Index following key positive policy announcements, demonstrating clear excess returns [1] - The industry maintains a "stronger than market" rating based on these observations [1]

中信证券研报称，双节后供需平稳，奶价进入磨底阶段，合同内外价格环比平稳，乳制品需求持续承 压，其中常温表现弱于低温，深加工及出海低基数下快速成长，未来前景广阔。Q3肉牛价格整体高位 波动，2024年以来存栏累计去化或超过10%，预计2026年肉牛供给端存在下降压力，参考上轮肉牛周期 去化及价格回升节奏，我们判断本轮周期活牛价格仍有上行空间。继续看好肉牛原奶周期共振。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that overseas lithium mine production remained stable in Q3 2025, reflecting a decrease in production enthusiasm among overseas mining companies due to weak lithium prices in the first three quarters of the year [1] Group 1: Lithium Market Dynamics - Despite a recovery in lithium prices in Q3 2025, feedback from overseas mining companies has been slow [1] - South American salt lake lithium extraction companies showed significant operational improvement in Q3 2025 and maintain an optimistic outlook for Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The strong demand for energy storage batteries is expected to continue driving the lithium industry, leading to a potential upward trend in lithium prices [1] - The price forecast for lithium has been adjusted, with the upper limit now set at 120,000 yuan per ton, suggesting a focus on low-cost stocks and companies with expected resource production increases during the price rebound [1]

中信证券研报称，近年来国内财富管理市场规模体量均持续增长，在无风险收益持续下行、资产轮动速 度加快、财富人群配置需求日益多元化的背景下，我们预计配置类产品有望迎来发展契机。基于此，我 们以低相关、有代表性的股债商指数作为底层资产，基于"风险平价+信号增强"的思路构建了大类资产 趋势配置策略。从历史回测结果来看，2012年初至2025年10月底，大类资产趋势配置策略年化收益为 8.97%，夏普比率为1.85，历年均能实现正收益，2025年以来实现收益13.87%。从情景复盘结果来看， 在历史上各类资产出现较大波动时，大类资产趋势配置策略能够通过有效地调整降低整体组合的风险。 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after the dual festivals, supply and demand remain stable, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase. Contract prices are stable on a month-on-month basis, while dairy product demand continues to face pressure, particularly with ambient temperature products underperforming compared to chilled products [1] - The deep processing sector and exports are experiencing rapid growth from a low base, suggesting a promising future outlook [1] - In Q3, beef cattle prices have shown high volatility, and it is expected that the cumulative reduction in stock since 2024 may exceed 10%. By 2026, there may be downward pressure on the supply side of beef cattle [1] - Based on the previous cycle of beef cattle reduction and price recovery, it is anticipated that there is still upward potential for live cattle prices in the current cycle. The industry remains optimistic about the resonance between beef cattle and raw milk cycles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "An Wo Gu Bao" product, marketed as the first internet insurance for stock investments, is under scrutiny for potential fraud, as it lacks regulatory approval and misrepresents its offerings [1][2]. Group 1: Product Overview - "An Wo Gu Bao" claims to provide full compensation for stock losses on the same day, with a minimum investment of 100 yuan and a minimum investment period of one trading day [1]. - The platform claims to collaborate with well-known securities firms and employs "professional strategists" to manage investments [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The China Insurance Industry Association issued a warning stating that "An Wo Gu Bao" is not an approved insurance entity and that stock investment losses are not insurable [1]. - Financial regulatory authorities have confirmed that no products under the name "An Wo Gu Bao" have been approved or registered [1]. Group 3: Company Statements - CITIC Securities has issued a statement denying any collaboration with "An Wo Gu Bao" or "An Wo Insurance Co., Ltd." and refuting claims of joint financial product offerings [2]. - The China Insurance Industry Association advises consumers to be cautious of illegal financial activities masquerading as insurance and to purchase insurance products only from legitimate companies [2].

智通财经APP讯，中信证券(06030)发布公告，公司境外全资子公司中信证券国际有限公司(以下简称中 信证券国际)的附属公司CSI MTN Limited(以下简称发行人或被担保人)于2022年3月29日设立境外中期票 据计划(以下简称中票计划)，此中票计划由中信证券国际提供担保。根据存续票据到期情况，结合公司 业务发展实际需要，发行人于2025年11月26日在中票计划下发行一笔票据，发行金额5086.70万美元。 本次发行后，发行人在中票计划下已发行票据的本金余额合计27.36亿美元。 ...

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