（责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇9月25日｜铜价在亚盘时段下跌，回吐了前一交易日夜间的大幅涨幅。此前，矿业公司Freeport McMoran宣布，对其位于印尼的格拉斯伯格(Grasberg)矿山的合同供应启动不可抗力，推动LME铜期货 隔夜一度升至一年多来的新高。澳新银行分析师在一份报告中表示，这一事件重新引发了市场对供应的 担忧。该矿山占全球铜供应量的3.2%，并占该公司铜总产量的70%以上。预计意外的供应中断将影响全 球铜总产量的6%以上。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing trading volume and an increasing open interest; the spot was at a discount, and the basis weakened. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia under Freeport encountered a mudslide accident and suspended operations, which will have a significant impact on global copper production in Q4 2025 and in the future, and global copper ore supply may become tighter. On the supply side, the tight supply of raw materials and the recent decline in copper prices due to the Fed's interest - rate cut will limit smelters' profit margins, and domestic refined copper supply is expected to converge. On the demand side, the slight decline in copper prices has boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm to some extent, and combined with the pre - holiday inventory demand, domestic demand has increased, and social inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly increasing demand. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.19, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0833, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 82,710 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,750 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,367.50 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 31 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 238,523 lots, a daily increase of 66,079 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 16,618 lots, a daily decrease of 3,174 lots. The LME copper inventory was 144,975 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 105,814 tons, a weekly increase of 11,760 tons. The LME copper canceled warrants were 11,775 tons, a daily decrease of 100 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 27,419 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 82,505 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,460 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 82,445 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,375 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 56.50 US dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 4.50 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was - 205 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 290 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 31.37 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 41.74 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, a monthly increase of 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 40.80 US dollars/thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.50 US dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,340 yuan/metal ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 71,040 yuan/metal ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the processing fee for blister copper in the North was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.301 billion tons, a monthly increase of 310,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, a weekly increase of 430,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,440 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 460 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 70 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2219 billion tons, a monthly increase of 526,000 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.497 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, a monthly decrease of 438,933,600 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 14.32%, a daily increase of 6.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 11.22%, a daily increase of 3.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month was 13.13%, a daily increase of 0.0011 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.19, a daily decrease of 0.0833 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against a series of interest - rate cuts, expressing concerns about inflation and not supporting rate cuts at the next meeting; San Francisco Fed President Daly believed that economic growth and the labor market had slowed, and inflation was lower than expected, so further rate cuts might be needed. On September 24, mining giant Freeport disclosed that its Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide accident on September 8, which caused casualties and damaged mining facilities. The mine has suspended operations. Preliminary assessment shows that this may lead to significant production delays in the near term (Q4 2025 and 2026), and operations may return to pre - incident levels in 2027. Freeport's comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower than the July 2025 estimate. Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the High - level Meeting on the Global Development Initiative and stated that China, as a responsible developing country, will not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future WTO negotiations. Li Qiang met with European Commission President von der Leyen in New York, hoping that the EU would fulfill its commitment to keep trade and investment markets open, adhere to fair competition and WTO rules, and avoid politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues [2].

CONCLUDED Topics Memberships Stock Market News From Sept. 25, 2025: S&P 500 Drops for a Third Session Last Updated: 14 hours ago Copper Climbs as Freeport Mine Accident Worries Market By Giulia Petroni, Dow Jones Newswires Copper prices extended gains in early trading, after surging nearly 4% in the previous session following news that Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure on contracted supplies from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Futures on the London Metal Exchange were up 1.3% to $10,455.50 a metric t ...

Demand）为2，758.6万吨，即今年预测供需平衡差（Balance）为26.7万吨，但料全球2026年精炼铜总产量预测为2，806.2万吨、2026年精炼铜总需求量为2，848.2万吨，即明年预测供 责任编辑：史丽君 Teniente矿山事故，以及秘鲁示威等因素，将进一步加剧短期矿山供应风险。该行原先预测2026年全球矿山供应增长约2%（50万吨），并已计入约5%的供应干扰；如今因应Grasberg指引调 过去2至3年，精炼铜供应增长持续超出矿山供应成长，导致铜精矿和废铜市场趋紧，但同时推迟了精炼市场的紧张状况，也因此抑制了铜价长期突破每吨1万美元的涨势。该行认为Grasberg矿 2026年铜精炼供应预测下调，将扩大精炼市场的供给缺口。虽然与关税相关的宏观不确定性及市场波动持续，中国铜需求仍展现韧性，电网与储能需求强劲，弥补了太阳能与家电需求在下半年 该行亦列出全球2025年精炼铜总产量（Total Refined Production）预测为2，785.3万吨、2025年精炼铜总需求量（Refined 瑞银发表报告表示，FCX因今年9月8日印尼Grasberg矿区（全球第二大铜矿）地下出现矿难（大量 ...

瑞银研报指，Grasberg矿场停产将加剧2026年全球铜市场预期的供给缺口，该行重申对铜价乐观展望。 瑞银预计2025年全球精炼铜供需平衡差为26.7万吨，2026年供需平衡差为负42.1万吨。(格隆汇) 麦克莫兰铜金公司(FCX.US)昨日因旗下印尼矿场停产消息大跌近17%，今日盘前反弹超2%，报38.44美 元。 消息面上，麦克莫兰铜金公司日前确认，其位于印尼的Grasberg矿场(全球第二大铜矿)9月8日发生的泥 石流事故已造成两名工人死亡，另有五名工人仍下落不明。公司称，该矿场的营运或在2026年上半年分 阶段重启并逐步恢复，预计明年铜金产量较此前预期下降约35%。受此消息刺激，LME铜价昨日涨超 3%，升至逾15个月高位。 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices surged, with the night session opening high and reaching a peak of 82,980 yuan, marking the highest point since late March this year, closing up 3.4%, while international copper rose by 3.58% [1] - Freeport announced a force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia and lowered its copper sales forecast, highlighting the vulnerability of the mining sector and intensifying the tension in raw material supply [1] - Following the mudflow incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine, Freeport indicated that it would notify commercial counterparts of the force majeure situation and reduced its third-quarter copper sales guidance by 4% [1] Group 2 - The preliminary assessment suggests that the Grasberg mine may return to pre-incident operational levels by 2027, with Freeport's 2026 copper production target lowered by 35% compared to pre-incident levels, raising concerns over global copper supply [1] - Jinrui Futures stated that the short-term supply and demand are weakening, expecting a continued tight balance in the market, with prices likely to shift to a stronger trend due to significant mining disruptions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that copper prices are expected to remain strong due to a shortage of copper ore, exacerbated by the operational issues at the Grasberg mine [2][6]. - The international benchmark price for copper reached a new high of $10,364 per ton on September 24, marking the largest increase in approximately 5.5 months [4]. - Freeport-McMoRan, a major U.S. mining company, indicated that production at its Indonesian subsidiary could decrease by about 35% by 2026 due to a landslide incident at the Grasberg mine [6]. Group 2 - Concerns about copper ore shortages are heightened by the expansion of copper smelting capacity in China, which is not being met by sufficient ore supply [6]. - The Cobre Panamá copper mine in Panama was forced to suspend operations in 2023 due to environmental protests, further contributing to supply concerns [6]. - Market Risk Advisory's representative stated that copper prices will continue to remain strong in the context of ore shortages if the Grasberg mine cannot resume operations in the short term [6].

Freeport-McMoRan’s declaration of force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia — where two employees are dead and five missing after a massive mud flow — couldn’t have come at a worse time for the global copper market https://t.co/9dLGBuCd8v ...

Reporting Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a bullish view on copper prices and recommend long positions at low prices; suggest looking into buying the near - term SHFE copper contract while selling the far - term contract [11][12] Core Viewpoints - The shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine will exacerbate the global copper market supply tightness, providing upward rebound momentum for copper prices. Despite the slowdown in copper demand growth, with the arrival of the peak demand season and positive macro - economic expectations, copper prices are expected to rise [4][5][11] Summary by Directory Event Review - On the evening of September 24, copper prices rebounded significantly, with LME copper breaking through US$10,000 per ton. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remains shut down, and its production in 2026 is estimated to decrease by 35% compared to the previous forecast of 1.7bn lb (approx. 0.77mn t), impacting production by around 0.27mn t [4][5] Market Outlook Supply Side - Recent disruptions in copper mine supply occurred as the underground tunnels of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia were partially blocked. Mining operations are suspended, and production is expected to fully recover only by 2027. The shutdown will exacerbate the tightness in the copper concentrate market, with copper ore spot processing fees likely remaining low and potentially declining further. Blister copper processing fees are also falling, leading to possible production cuts at some scrap - copper - using smelters, and a significant month - over - month decline in electrolytic copper production in September [7][8][13] Demand Side - The growth rate of copper demand has slowed down due to the decline in terminal demand from home appliances and other sectors, and the pace of inventory reduction has slowed in the past two months, constraining copper price increases in Q3 2025. However, with the arrival of the peak demand season in September and October, downstream buyers' willingness to stock up has increased, and copper inventories have begun to decline this week. If the decline continues, copper prices will have significant upward elasticity [9][10][14] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts at its September meeting, and overall macro - economic expectations are positive. Coupled with frequent supply disruptions and the significant impact of the Grasberg copper mine shutdown, a bullish view on copper prices is maintained. In terms of arbitrage, the decline in refined copper production in September coinciding with a seasonal increase in demand may tighten the copper supply - demand balance again, and low copper inventories are likely to persist, making it a good opportunity for a positive spread in SHFE copper contracts [11][12][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basic metals are expected to maintain an oscillatory upward pattern in the short - to - medium term, supported by a weak US dollar and supply disruptions, while the weak terminal demand will limit the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding in copper, aluminum, and tin are recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Grasberg copper mine has a large production cut, and copper prices are operating strongly. The reduction in Grasberg's production intensifies the supply shortage, and with the Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching peak demand season, if copper inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [7][8]. - **Alumina**: Affected by anti - involution sentiment, alumina prices have a slight rebound. The fundamentals show an over - supply situation, but the limited decline in ore prices restricts the downside. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the short term [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the demand quality, and aluminum prices are oscillating. After the interest rate cut, the supply is increasing with new capacity, and the demand is expected to improve, but the inventory accumulation continues. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may rise in the medium term [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support remains, and the market is oscillating. The cost reduction space is limited, the supply and demand are marginally improving, and short - term price oscillation is expected. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of supply - demand surplus is still strong, and zinc prices are weak. Macro factors support the non - ferrous sector, but the supply is increasing and the demand is average. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16][17]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead is decreasing, and lead prices are oscillating strongly. With the approaching of the National Day, downstream enterprises are stocking up, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [18][20]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 230,000 tons, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the price, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. Short - term wide - range oscillation is expected [21][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and stainless steel prices are oscillating. The prices of nickel and chromium are stable, and the supply is increasing. Attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season and the inventory change [26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are oscillating. The supply is tight, but the terminal demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate with strong bottom support [27][28]. 3.2行情监测 - Not provided with specific monitoring content in the given text