Freeport-McMoRan’s declaration of force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia — where two employees are dead and five missing after a massive mud flow — couldn’t have come at a worse time for the global copper market https://t.co/9dLGBuCd8v ...

Reporting Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a bullish view on copper prices and recommend long positions at low prices; suggest looking into buying the near - term SHFE copper contract while selling the far - term contract [11][12] Core Viewpoints - The shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine will exacerbate the global copper market supply tightness, providing upward rebound momentum for copper prices. Despite the slowdown in copper demand growth, with the arrival of the peak demand season and positive macro - economic expectations, copper prices are expected to rise [4][5][11] Summary by Directory Event Review - On the evening of September 24, copper prices rebounded significantly, with LME copper breaking through US$10,000 per ton. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remains shut down, and its production in 2026 is estimated to decrease by 35% compared to the previous forecast of 1.7bn lb (approx. 0.77mn t), impacting production by around 0.27mn t [4][5] Market Outlook Supply Side - Recent disruptions in copper mine supply occurred as the underground tunnels of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia were partially blocked. Mining operations are suspended, and production is expected to fully recover only by 2027. The shutdown will exacerbate the tightness in the copper concentrate market, with copper ore spot processing fees likely remaining low and potentially declining further. Blister copper processing fees are also falling, leading to possible production cuts at some scrap - copper - using smelters, and a significant month - over - month decline in electrolytic copper production in September [7][8][13] Demand Side - The growth rate of copper demand has slowed down due to the decline in terminal demand from home appliances and other sectors, and the pace of inventory reduction has slowed in the past two months, constraining copper price increases in Q3 2025. However, with the arrival of the peak demand season in September and October, downstream buyers' willingness to stock up has increased, and copper inventories have begun to decline this week. If the decline continues, copper prices will have significant upward elasticity [9][10][14] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts at its September meeting, and overall macro - economic expectations are positive. Coupled with frequent supply disruptions and the significant impact of the Grasberg copper mine shutdown, a bullish view on copper prices is maintained. In terms of arbitrage, the decline in refined copper production in September coinciding with a seasonal increase in demand may tighten the copper supply - demand balance again, and low copper inventories are likely to persist, making it a good opportunity for a positive spread in SHFE copper contracts [11][12][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basic metals are expected to maintain an oscillatory upward pattern in the short - to - medium term, supported by a weak US dollar and supply disruptions, while the weak terminal demand will limit the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding in copper, aluminum, and tin are recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Grasberg copper mine has a large production cut, and copper prices are operating strongly. The reduction in Grasberg's production intensifies the supply shortage, and with the Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching peak demand season, if copper inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [7][8]. - **Alumina**: Affected by anti - involution sentiment, alumina prices have a slight rebound. The fundamentals show an over - supply situation, but the limited decline in ore prices restricts the downside. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the short term [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the demand quality, and aluminum prices are oscillating. After the interest rate cut, the supply is increasing with new capacity, and the demand is expected to improve, but the inventory accumulation continues. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may rise in the medium term [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support remains, and the market is oscillating. The cost reduction space is limited, the supply and demand are marginally improving, and short - term price oscillation is expected. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of supply - demand surplus is still strong, and zinc prices are weak. Macro factors support the non - ferrous sector, but the supply is increasing and the demand is average. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16][17]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead is decreasing, and lead prices are oscillating strongly. With the approaching of the National Day, downstream enterprises are stocking up, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [18][20]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 230,000 tons, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the price, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. Short - term wide - range oscillation is expected [21][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and stainless steel prices are oscillating. The prices of nickel and chromium are stable, and the supply is increasing. Attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season and the inventory change [26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are oscillating. The supply is tight, but the terminal demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate with strong bottom support [27][28]. 3.2行情监测 - Not provided with specific monitoring content in the given text

此次供应损失已超出高盛对全球供应中断的常规承受范围，导致该机构将2025年全球矿山产量增速预测从0.8%下调至0.2%，2026年增速预测从2.2%降至 1.9%。 智通财经APP获悉，全球第二大铜矿印尼格拉斯伯格铜矿因9月8日泥流事故导致生产中断，高盛集团周四下调2025及2026年全球铜矿供应预期。此次事故引 发严重泥流，工人被困地下，运营商麦克莫兰铜金(FCX.US)已宣布不可抗力。 高盛估算，本次中断将造成铜矿供应总计损失52.5万吨，具体将2025年下半年全球矿山供应预测下调16万吨，2026年全球矿山供应预测下调20万吨。格拉斯 伯格铜矿2025年产量预计减少25万至26万吨，2026年进一步下降27万吨。 高盛表示，麦克莫兰铜金透露，受事故影响，该矿2025年第四季度产量将处于极低水平，未受波及区域约占年产能30%-40%，预计本季度中期可恢复生产; 其余部分则计划于2026年某个时点重启开采。 高盛同时重申对铜价长期看涨立场，预计2027年将达到10,750美元/吨，依据包括矿井深度增加、矿石品位下降、开采难度提升等结构性挑战，以及今年卡 莫阿-卡库拉和埃尔特尼恩特矿场等其他中断事件的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper metal sector in Hong Kong and A-shares has experienced significant gains due to a supply disruption at the Grasberg mine, which is expected to impact global copper supply and prices substantially [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 25, copper-related stocks in Hong Kong surged, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) up 11.9%, Minmetals Resources (01208.HK) up 9.93%, and Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) up 8.71% [2][3]. - A-share market also saw similar gains, with Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) hitting the daily limit, and Northern Copper (000737.SZ) rising 8.77% [3]. Group 2: Copper Price Movement - Futures markets showed a strong upward trend, with Shanghai copper futures reaching a high of 82,920 yuan/ton, marking a 3.28% increase [4]. - The price of copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by 3.46% to $10,320 per ton on September 24, reaching $10,328.5 per ton on September 25, the highest level since June 2024 [5]. Group 3: Supply Disruption Details - The Grasberg mine, operated by Freeport-McMoRan, experienced a fatal landslide on September 8, leading to a complete production halt and an expected 35% drop in copper output for 2026 [5][6]. - The mine accounts for 3.2% of global copper supply and over 70% of Freeport's total copper production, indicating a significant impact on the overall market [5][6]. Group 4: Demand Outlook - The demand for copper is expected to remain strong due to its essential role in electric vehicles, power infrastructure, and AI data centers, with projections indicating that global data centers will consume over 4.3 million tons of copper in the next decade [7]. - Increased defense spending globally is also anticipated to drive copper demand, as it is required for various military applications [7]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The copper sector has seen heightened interest in capital markets, with the Hong Kong copper index up 167.5% and the corresponding A-share index up 62.12% [7]. - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on copper prices, citing ongoing supply disruptions and favorable macroeconomic conditions as key factors [7].

Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, significantly impacting global copper markets [1] - The Grasberg mine is recognized as the world's second-largest copper operation, highlighting the scale of the disruption [1] - A massive mud flow at the mine has led to operational challenges, raising concerns over copper supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that Freeport-McMoRan, a major U.S. mining company, has announced a temporary production halt at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a mining accident, leading to a larger-than-expected reduction in copper output for the next two years, which will exacerbate the anticipated supply gap in the global copper market by 2026 [1] Group 1: Company Impact - Freeport-McMoRan's temporary production halt at the Grasberg mine is a significant event impacting its copper output forecasts [1] - The company’s revised copper production outlook is more pessimistic than market expectations, indicating potential challenges ahead [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - UBS maintains an optimistic outlook on copper prices despite the production issues, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the market [1] - Global refined copper production is forecasted to be 27.853 million tons in 2025, with demand at 27.586 million tons, resulting in a supply-demand balance deficit of 267,000 tons for that year [1] - For 2026, refined copper production is expected to reach 28.062 million tons, while demand is projected at 28.482 million tons, leading to a forecasted supply-demand balance deficit of 421,000 tons [1] - The supply-demand balance deficits are expected to worsen in subsequent years, with projections of negative 510,000 tons in 2027, negative 756,000 tons in 2028, and negative 1.224 million tons in 2029 [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - UBS recommends several mining stocks, including Anglo American, Teck Resources, Antofagasta, and Zijin Mining, as key investment opportunities in the sector [1]

一场重大矿难事故正让全球第二大铜矿陷入停产，并由此引发了全球金属市场的强烈震动。 9月24日，美国矿业巨头矿业巨头Freeport-McMoRan（FCX）发表声明宣布，其供应合同进入"不可抗力"状态。而这一突发事件被华尔街迅速定性 为"黑天鹅事件"，点燃了市场对铜供应长期短缺的忧虑，并推动铜价大幅飙升。 华尔街见闻写道，事件的核心是Freeport位于印尼的Grasberg矿山。该公司确认，9月8日发生的一场大规模泥石流事故已造成两名工人死亡，另有 五人失踪。作为应对，公司已全面暂停该矿区的生产活动，并启动了不可抗力条款，该条款允许生产商在遭遇不可预见的灾难时暂停履行供应合 同。 市场的反应立竿见影。消息传出后，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）的铜期货价格上涨近4%，报4.825美元/磅。Freeport的股价在盘前交易中重挫， 而其竞争对手如嘉能可和Boliden等铜业公司的股价则应声上涨。 丹麦盛宝银行商品策略主管Ole Hansen对此评论道："交易员们先买入，然后再问问题"，精准地描绘了市场在供应恐慌下的本能反应。 James McGeoch还强调，虽然Grasberg是全球第二大铜矿，但它同时也是全球 ...

Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure on contracted supplies from its Grasberg Block Cave mine after a fatal mudflow accident on September 8. The incident resulted in the deaths of two employees and left five others missing.According to the company, approximately 800,000 metric tons of wet material entered the mine and spread rapidly across multiple levels, including the service level where development activities were underway.Freeport confirmed that production at Grasberg — the world’s second-largest co ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Grasberg Block Cave mud collapse accident leads to production suspension and sales volume reduction, affecting copper market supply and prices [1][3] - Global copper concentrate balance table is expected to be further adjusted, and the supply loss rate may exceed 5% in 2025 [5] - Focus on the capital's allocation interest in the copper market and the actual consumption strength [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event - On the evening of September 24, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. declared force majeure on the mud collapse accident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, and lowered the copper and gold sales volume expectations for the fourth quarter of this year and the whole of next year. The LME copper price rose sharply before the night session opened, hitting a new high of $10,320/ton in closing price this year; the Shanghai copper weighted index increased by more than 60,000 lots, and the weighted index rose to a maximum of 82,880 points [1] Importance of the Mine - The accident occurred on September 8, with a large amount of mud gushing out, and the mining area is basically in a state of suspension. The accident investigation is expected to be completed by the end of the year. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's second-largest copper concentrate mine. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) currently holds 48.8% of the shares, and the Indonesian company holds 51.2% (still actively committed to increasing the equity ratio). The annual production capacity of the mine is 800,000 tons. During the epidemic, it completed the transformation from an open-pit mine to underground mining. In 2024, the copper sales volume of the mine increased to about 760,000 tons, accounting for about 40% of FCX's annual output. According to the 22.98 million tons of copper concentrate production of the International Copper Study Group in 2024, it accounts for about 3.3% [1] Impact of the Accident on the Mine's Sales Volume - In June 2023, Indonesia banned the export of copper concentrate unless the construction of smelter capacity is fulfilled to obtain a phased export quota. The project of building a smelter for the Grasberg copper mine by FCX has been tortuous. The commissioning process of the Manyar smelter in 2024 was repeatedly delayed, and it was commissioned in May 2025 and produced in July (the plant is expected to produce 480,000 tons of cathode copper annually, with a concentrate processing capacity of 1.7 million tons); the Gresik smelter (jointly owned with Mitsubishi, expected to consume 40% of the copper concentrate from Grasberg and with an annual output of 342,000 tons) was shut down due to an oxygen production accident in summer. The smelting progress cannot consume the copper concentrate. After the approval of Freeport's copper concentrate export activities by the Indonesian government expired in 2024, as of the first quarter of this year, it had accumulated a large amount of concentrate inventory (it was rumored to be close to 400,000 tons at the beginning of the year), which had affected the production of the Grasberg copper mine. The copper production of the mine in the first half of the year was only 297,000 tons [2] - In 2025, Freeport's production and sales activities in Indonesia were not smooth. In 2024, the company's overall copper business in Indonesia sold 183.7 million pounds (about 830,000 tons). In 2025, it was initially expected to sell 162.5 million pounds (about 737,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons compared with last year), but only 44.3 million pounds (about 200,000 tons) were completed in the first half of the year (the pace accelerated in the third quarter). The company had previously lowered this year's expectation to 150 million pounds (about 680,000 tons) [2] - In March 2025, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy issued a six-month copper concentrate export license to Freeport Indonesia (quota of about 1.27 million tons, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons), valid until September 16, 2025. As of mid-August, the company stated that it had exported about 65% of the quota and expected to use 90% of it before the expiration [3] - After the accident, FCX officially lowered the production guidance of the Grasberg copper mine. Although a small mining area that was not affected will resume production in mid - fourth quarter, Freeport Indonesia as a whole cannot complete the original sales target of 44.5 million pounds, about 200,000 tons, in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the affected mining area will be restarted in stages in 2026. The copper production target of Freeport Indonesia in 2026 will be directly reduced from 170 million pounds to 110 million pounds (from 770,000 tons to 498,000 tons), a reduction of 35%. The actual copper production of Freeport Indonesia this year may only be at the level of about 500,000 tons. The operation volume of Freeport Indonesia may not return to the pre - accident level until 2027 [3] - Since Freeport Indonesia has basically completed the approval volume of copper concentrate exports in 2025, it has basically entered a gap period for external spot exports again. The domestic copper concentrate import TC quotation has turned weak again since September. In terms of production, the mine is expected to have an obvious resupply in the late first quarter of next year or even in the second half of the year [3] Global Copper Concentrate Balance Table - In 2025, the severity of the accidents in global large mines is very significant. In the second quarter, the Kakula underground mine jointly operated by Ivanhoe and Zijin in the Democratic Republic of the Congo significantly lowered its production increase target for 2025 due to mine earthquakes or design reasons. In the third quarter, the operation of El Teniente under Codelco in Chile was also affected by an earthquake casualty accident, and it is expected to lose 20,000 - 30,000 tons of copper. The supply loss rate of copper concentrate this year may exceed 5% due to the force majeure of Freeport Indonesia [5] - In April 2025, the ICSG initially believed that the global copper concentrate increment this year could reach 2.3%, an increase of nearly 500,000 tons. Recently, the agency will update the copper concentrate expectation again and is likely to lower it to the level of 100,000 tons. The increment in 2026 will also be affected by this accident and be correspondingly adjusted. Therefore, the specific production resupply rhythm of the 330,000 - ton Cobre Panama copper mine of First Quantum in Panama becomes the key. At the same time, the annual processing fee negotiation in 2026 will fall into a passive situation again [5] Price Impact - The copper price rose sharply at night, fully digesting the short - term supply - side event. Technically, LME copper has the potential to continue to break through the upward pattern, but it is recommended to focus on the capital's allocation interest in the copper market. The short - term position of Shanghai copper weighted index increased sharply, but the total position is not significant compared with the previous performance when the price broke through the 80,000 mark. The copper market is still vigilant about the fluctuations of macro - economic indicators and sensitive to the actual consumption strength [5]