Core Viewpoint - General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS) is expected to report earnings soon, with the stock facing significant challenges over the past year [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The stock of General Mills has performed poorly over the last year, indicating a rough period for the company [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Josh Arnold, an experienced analyst, utilizes both technical and fundamental analysis to identify potential growth stocks, focusing on efficient capital use rather than rigid buy-and-hold strategies [1] - The investing group Timely Trader, led by Josh Arnold, emphasizes limiting risk and maximizing potential rewards through features like real-time alerts and sector analysis [1]

Core Viewpoint - Häagen-Dazs, a high-end ice cream brand in China, is facing significant growth challenges and may consider selling its stores in the country due to declining sales and foot traffic [4][5][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - General Mills, the parent company of Häagen-Dazs, reported a net sales of $138 million for its premium ice cream business in the latest quarter, a decrease of approximately 3.2% compared to the same period last year [5]. - The sales revenue for Häagen-Dazs in China has declined from $800 million in the 2019 fiscal year to $730 million in the 2024 fiscal year [22]. - As of June 22, 2024, Häagen-Dazs had 385 stores in China, significantly fewer than local competitors like "Mr. Wild" with 566 stores and DQ with 1,695 stores [19]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The Chinese ice cream market has become increasingly crowded with the rise of new brands and local competitors, leading to a decline in Häagen-Dazs' market share [21][22]. - The emergence of new tea drinks and local coffee shops has provided consumers with more options for casual dining, further impacting Häagen-Dazs' customer base [21]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - A recent survey indicated that only 6.94% of consumers are willing to pay over 20 yuan for a single ice cream, down from 9.01% in 2023, reflecting a shift towards more budget-friendly options [25]. - Consumers are increasingly seeking value for money, with a preference for products priced under 10 yuan [25]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Häagen-Dazs plans to expand its retail channels and promote handheld products to increase visibility and competitiveness in the market [27]. - The brand is also implementing promotional pricing strategies, such as offering ten flavors for 189.9 yuan at pop-up stores [28]. - There are suggestions for Häagen-Dazs to localize its operations by potentially transferring management to Chinese firms to better adapt to local market conditions [31].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect General Mills to report quarterly earnings of $0.71 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 29.7%, with revenues projected at $4.6 billion, down 2.4% from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial indicators for predicting investor actions regarding stocks, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [2] Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales- North America Foodservice' at $593.35 million, indicating a year-over-year change of +0.7% [4] - 'Net Sales- International' is expected to reach $671.56 million, reflecting a +0.6% change from the year-ago quarter [4] - 'Net Sales- North America Pet' is projected at $646.14 million, showing a year-over-year increase of +7.3% [4] - 'Net Sales- North America Retail' is anticipated to be $2.71 billion, indicating a -5% change from the prior-year quarter [5] Operating Profit Estimates - 'Operating Profit- North America Retail' is expected to be $492.98 million, down from $670.10 million year-over-year [5] - 'Operating Profit- International' is projected at $32.83 million, compared to $22.40 million from the previous year [6] - 'Operating Profit- North America Pet' is estimated at $124.25 million, down from $143.90 million year-over-year [6] - 'Operating Profit- North America Foodservice' is expected to be $78.51 million, slightly down from $79.20 million year-ago [6] Stock Performance - Over the past month, General Mills shares have returned -0.8%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +0.6% [7] - General Mills currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance compared to the overall market in the near future [7]

Core Viewpoint - General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is expected to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated at 71 cents, reflecting a 29.7% decrease year-over-year, and revenues projected at $4.6 billion, indicating a 2.4% decline from the previous year [1][2][4]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GIS's quarterly earnings is 71 cents per share, down 29.7% from the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is $4.6 billion, which represents a 2.4% decrease from the year-ago quarter [1]. - For fiscal 2025, the earnings estimate is $4.19 per share, reflecting a decline of 7.3% from the prior year's figure, while the revenue estimate is $19.5 billion, indicating a 1.6% decline [1][4]. Group 2: Market Challenges - GIS is facing a highly competitive and price-sensitive food industry environment, with elevated grocery inflation impacting consumer spending and leading to a shift towards lower-cost private label brands [2]. - The company is experiencing macroeconomic and operational challenges, particularly in international markets like China, where consumer demand is subdued [3]. - Retailer inventory pressures in North America and sluggish trends in U.S. snacking categories are compounding the company's difficulties [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - GIS has provided a cautious outlook for fiscal 2025, forecasting a decline in organic net sales between 2% and 1.5% [4]. - The company anticipates a full-year adjusted operating profit and EPS decline of 7% to 8% in constant currency, reflecting lower revenue expectations [4][5]. - Despite implementing cost-saving initiatives, persistent inflationary pressures and weakening consumer demand continue to challenge GIS's performance [5].

Core Viewpoint - General Mills is considering selling its Haagen-Dazs store business in China, with potential transaction value reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, driven by declining store traffic and a significant reduction in the number of stores over the past four years [1][2]. Group 1: Business Restructuring - General Mills has engaged consultants to evaluate the sale of its Haagen-Dazs stores in China, with formal sale processes expected to start in 2025 [2]. - The company has been undergoing a restructuring process, incurring approximately $70 million in restructuring costs for the current quarter, with total restructuring expenses projected at $130 million by the end of fiscal year 2028 [2]. - Haagen-Dazs has faced criticism for declining store traffic in China for three consecutive quarters, with CEO Jeff Harmening acknowledging the challenges in the Chinese market [2][3]. Group 2: Market Performance - In the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, General Mills' international organic net sales decreased by 3%, primarily due to declines in the Chinese and Brazilian markets [3]. - The ice cream market in China is contracting, with major players like Yili and Mengniu reporting significant revenue declines of 18.4% and 14.1%, respectively, in 2024 [3]. - Haagen-Dazs has seen a rapid reduction in its store network, with only 263 stores remaining in China as of June 12, 2025, down from over 400 in September 2021, marking a nearly 20% decrease [3]. Group 3: Channel Transformation - Haagen-Dazs is shifting its business model to focus on retail channels, with plans to enhance penetration and improve product display in convenience stores and supermarkets [4]. - The brand is also expanding its presence in e-commerce, moving towards interest-based platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu [4]. - The B2B segment of Haagen-Dazs is growing rapidly, encompassing high-end dining services and partnerships with premium hotels and restaurants [5]. Group 4: Potential for Revitalization - The potential sale of the store business could provide an opportunity for Haagen-Dazs to rejuvenate its operations in China, similar to the successful localization seen with McDonald's China [6]. - The ice cream market is shifting towards a "quality-price ratio" era, with more affordable products gaining traction, which may pressure traditional high-end store formats [6]. - Despite challenges, Haagen-Dazs maintains a strong brand presence, holding over 15% market share in the Chinese ice cream chain sector as of 2023, ranking second only to DQ [6].

Core Insights - General Mills is considering selling its Häagen-Dazs ice cream stores in China, with a potential sale process expected to start within the year, aiming for a price in the hundreds of millions of dollars, although negotiations are still in the early stages and may not result in a sale [1][2] - Häagen-Dazs has experienced a significant decline in customer traffic in China, with reports indicating a double-digit drop, leading to the closure of several underperforming stores [2][4] - The brand's market position has weakened due to changing consumer preferences and increased competition from domestic ice cream brands that offer lower prices and a focus on fresh, handmade products [8][12] Company Performance - As of January 2024, Häagen-Dazs had 466 stores in China, but this number has decreased to 263, indicating a significant reduction in its retail presence [2] - The company has attempted to adapt by expanding its sales channels and implementing price reductions, with notable discounts on products sold through convenience stores and e-commerce platforms [5][7] - Despite some growth in specific product lines, overall net sales in the Chinese market fell by 3% year-on-year in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 [7] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape in the Chinese ice cream market has shifted, with domestic brands like Bobo Ice and Romanlin gaining traction by offering products at lower price points, typically between 10-20 yuan [8][12] - These domestic brands have rapidly expanded their store counts, with Bobo Ice reaching over 1,200 locations and Romanlin opening more than 140 stores in the first half of 2025 [10][12] - Additionally, tea and coffee brands are entering the ice cream market, leveraging their existing customer bases and offering products at competitive prices, further challenging Häagen-Dazs' market share [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - General Mills is considering selling its Haagen-Dazs ice cream business in China, with preliminary valuations reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, and the process may start in 2025 [2] Financial Performance - General Mills reported a net sales figure of $4.842 billion for Q3 of fiscal year 2025, a 5% decrease year-over-year [3] - The net profit for the same quarter was $626 million, down 7% compared to the previous year, falling short of investor revenue expectations [2][3] - The international market, including China, saw a net sales decline of 3% [4] Market Challenges - Haagen-Dazs has faced significant challenges in the Chinese market, with over 60 stores closing in one year, reducing the total from 466 to 403 [4] - The brand's customer traffic has experienced a double-digit decline, indicating a decrease in consumer interest and loyalty [4] - The Chinese ice cream market is shifting towards diversified and personalized consumption, with consumers prioritizing quality, health, and cost-effectiveness over traditional premium positioning [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Local brands like Moutai Ice Cream are gaining popularity through cultural collaborations and targeted marketing strategies, appealing to younger consumers [5] - International brands such as Nestlé and Dairy Queen are leveraging price advantages to attract price-sensitive middle-class consumers, further squeezing Haagen-Dazs' market share [5] - The shift towards a "value-for-money" era in the Chinese ice cream industry has diminished the allure of foreign luxury brands, with Haagen-Dazs' average price of approximately 58 yuan becoming misaligned with current consumer preferences [5]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for General Mills due to lower revenues, with the actual results being crucial for near-term stock price movements [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - General Mills is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.71 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 29.7%, with revenues projected at $4.6 billion, down 2.4% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.44% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight bullish sentiment among analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Most Accurate Estimate for General Mills is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +0.80%. However, the stock has a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - General Mills has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the past four quarters, with a notable surprise of +5.26% in the last reported quarter [13][14]. Market Reaction Factors - An earnings beat or miss may not solely dictate stock price movements, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [15]. Investment Considerations - While General Mills may not appear as a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider additional factors before making investment decisions [17].

Core Viewpoint - General Mills is considering selling its Haagen-Dazs ice cream stores in China, with initial valuations reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, although negotiations are still in early stages and may not lead to a sale [1][3]. Group 1: Haagen-Dazs Performance in China - Haagen-Dazs, once referred to as the "Hermès of ice cream," has seen a significant decline in performance in China, with store traffic experiencing double-digit declines [3][5]. - The brand entered the Chinese market in 1996, initially thriving due to its high-quality ingredients and premium pricing, but has struggled as consumers now prioritize value for money [5][10]. - As of early 2024, Haagen-Dazs has closed over 60 stores, and despite a slight increase in retail share, store traffic continues to decline [5][10]. Group 2: Comparison with Starbucks - In contrast to Haagen-Dazs, Starbucks has achieved a 5% year-on-year revenue growth in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, with a total of 7,758 stores in China [6][9]. - Starbucks has successfully localized its strategy, utilizing regional partnerships and a focus on cultural integration to expand its market presence [8][9]. - The company has maintained its premium positioning while avoiding price wars, instead opting for product differentiation and continued expansion, even during challenging market conditions [9]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts for Haagen-Dazs - Haagen-Dazs is shifting its focus towards retail, dining services, and e-commerce to create new growth opportunities, as indicated by the CEO's comments on the need to adapt to changing consumer behaviors [10][12]. - The brand's strategy includes expanding its distribution network to enhance convenience for consumers, which has already shown positive results in online sales [12]. - The effectiveness of these strategic changes will be crucial in determining whether Haagen-Dazs can revitalize its presence in the Chinese market [12].

Core Viewpoint - Häagen-Dazs has experienced a significant decline in its market position in China, facing challenges such as decreasing foot traffic, store closures, and declining sales, leading to potential divestment of its Chinese operations by General Mills [4][8][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - Häagen-Dazs entered the Chinese market in 1996, initially targeting the high-end segment with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% in sales from 2006 to 2015, peaking in 2017 when it contributed significantly to global sales [6][8]. - As of now, Häagen-Dazs operates 263 stores in mainland China, with major concentrations in Shanghai and Beijing [8]. - General Mills reported a 5% decline in net sales to $4.8 billion and a 7% drop in net profit to $626 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, with a 3% decrease in net sales from the Chinese market [8]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The ice cream market in China has become increasingly competitive, with local brands like Yili and Mengniu, as well as new entrants like Bobo Ice and Wild Man, rapidly expanding their store presence [10][11]. - DQ Ice Cream has emerged as a market leader, capturing nearly 29% market share by 2023, with a total of 1,721 stores [13]. Group 3: Consumer Preferences - There is a growing consumer trend towards health-conscious choices, leading to a reevaluation of Häagen-Dazs products, which are criticized for containing additives [10]. - Häagen-Dazs has been perceived as overpriced, with its small cup priced over 40 yuan, while consumers are more inclined towards options priced between 3-10 yuan, where 37% of consumers prefer the 3-5 yuan range [16][18]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - In response to declining sales, Häagen-Dazs has attempted to attract consumers through promotional discounts, including membership discounts and significant price reductions on select products [18][21]. - The brand has also started to diversify its retail presence beyond exclusive stores, entering convenience stores since 2016 to enhance accessibility [18]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of Häagen-Dazs in China hinges on its ability to innovate and align with the preferences of younger consumers, requiring substantial investment in product development and marketing strategies [21][22]. - The potential sale of its Chinese operations remains uncertain, with questions about who will take over and the pricing involved [20].