关于报告的所有内容，请于公众『市场分析报告』阅读原文 《高盛：2026年全球市场展望（美联储降息+AI+中国出口）》 1. 宏观环境 2025年末，投资者的关注点集中在美国政府关门带来的数据缺失，以及美联储的降息预期上。高盛的基本判断是，美联储会在不出现衰退的情况下温和降 息，政府开支恢复、关税压力减轻、财政政策转向宽松，为2026年初的全球增长带来支撑。历史上，美联储只要是在经济未衰退时降息，标普500往往继续 上涨。但目前的市场估值已反映了较多宽松和增长预期，导致信用和资产负债表的薄弱环节逐渐显现，股市虽有上涨空间，但波动也同步加大。 2. 就业压力与降息节奏 近期美国就业市场的不确定性是短期内的最大变量。政府关门期间，官方失业率数据曾经中断，高盛自己追踪了Challenger, Gray & Christmas、美国劳工 部、JOLTS裁员率、WARN通知和财报会议中的裁员信息，结果显示裁员确实在上升，但并不是急剧恶化。如果接下来几个月失业率快速攀升，市场 对"Sahm规则"触发的担忧会升温，原本预计明年3月的30个基点降息会提前、加码。反之，如果就业只是在慢慢降温，这一阶段的风险窗口会逐步消除，风 险 ...

Hours worked on gig platforms in 2025 have increased, even as payroll growth has slowed, suggesting more workers have taken up gig work during a cooling labor market, according to a report released by Goldman Sachs.https://t.co/E01bPagkt8 https://t.co/4JrMJU7WIj ...

Core Insights - Separate Managed Accounts (SMA) are customized investment tools for high-net-worth and institutional clients, allowing investors to directly own each security in their account while benefiting from professional management, combining the advantages of fund-like management with personal asset control [3][6][10] - Compared to Model Portfolios, SMAs offer significant differences in customization, ownership, and tax management, enabling tailored investment strategies based on individual risk preferences and ESG considerations [3][10] - The global SMA market is evolving towards digitalization, deeper ESG customization, and scalability, with opportunities for domestic accounts to adopt similar strategies to enhance personalization and tax efficiency [3][10] Overview of SMA Business - SMA allows investors to have direct ownership of securities, providing transparency and tax efficiency, making it a preferred choice for high-net-worth and institutional investors [6][10] - Various forms of SMA exist, including discretionary, non-discretionary, model-driven, multi-manager, and tax-optimized types, catering to different investor preferences and needs [12][10] International SMA Practices - J.P. Morgan is a leading SMA provider with over $300 billion in assets under management, utilizing a tax-driven index strategy that has significantly outperformed benchmarks [24][3] - Vanguard's SMA strategy focuses on low-cost, direct indexing, enhancing tax efficiency through coordinated rebalancing, with a minimum investment threshold of $10,000 [31][3] - Fidelity employs a tax-smart investing approach, utilizing a proprietary STAR Score system for stock selection and achieving a tax efficiency rate of 85% in 2024 [34][35] Key Features of SMA Providers - J.P. Morgan's SMA includes a comprehensive management structure with dedicated teams for investment management and client service, ensuring tailored solutions and compliance monitoring [16][24] - Vanguard's SMA leverages a direct indexing platform to provide personalized investment solutions, enhancing tax management and cost efficiency [31][32] - Morgan Stanley's SMA platform emphasizes professional management and tax optimization, allowing clients to directly hold assets while benefiting from expert guidance [51][53] Investment Strategies and Performance - J.P. Morgan's Large Cap Growth Strategy SMA achieved a five-year annualized net return of 15.25%, significantly outperforming the Russell 1000 Growth Index [24][3] - Morgan Stanley's ClearBridge Small Cap SMA focuses on undervalued small-cap stocks, employing a probability distribution valuation model to identify long-term growth opportunities [59][60] - Fidelity's cross-account tax loss harvesting technology enhances after-tax returns by 0.5%-1.2%, demonstrating the effectiveness of tax optimization strategies [35][3]

来源|财联社 随着近日市场调整对美联储降息的预期，美债收益率上升，美元上涨，黄金价格也随着承压回落。不过，高盛认为，支撑黄金的因素直至明年都将继 续提供支撑，使得此次回调相对短暂，尤其是考虑到各国央行仍是大买家。 美东时间周一，高盛在分享给客户的研究报告中写道： "上周黄金价格大幅上涨，上周一亚洲交易时段内一度以垂直走势上涨约25美元，随后上涨近6%，但在上周五金价出现回调，跌落至约4100美元。 上周一价格的上涨时间、幅度和速度与亚洲央行的买入行为相符。" 高盛分析师表示，他观察到全球央行的黄金购买量仍在持续增加，并将持续强劲态势直至明年。 高盛银行预计， 从2025年第四季度到2026年，各国央行每月平均将购买80吨黄金。 该银行估计，卡塔尔在9月份购买了20吨黄金，阿曼购买了7吨，中国购买了15吨。 总体而言，各国央行的购金速度使得高盛坚持其预测，即到2026年底，黄金价格将涨至4900美元。 高盛还表示，散户的力量也不容小觑：如果全球散户投资者将黄金纳入投资组合的趋势持续下去，金价可能会进一步上涨。 高盛分析师们写道：央行购金量的增加，加上自2022年年中以来最大的单月黄金西方ETF资金流入量（112 ...

香港联交所最新资料显示，11月14日，The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.增持东方电气（600875） (01072)49.7万股，每股作价22.4239港元，总金额约为1114.47万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为2073.19 万股，最新持股比例为5.08%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，11月14日，The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.增持东方电气 (01072)49.7万股，每股作价22.4239港元，总金额约为1114.47万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为2073.19 万股，最新持股比例为5.08%。 ...

Core Insights - Federato, an AI-driven insurance platform, has raised $100 million in a Series D funding round led by Goldman Sachs Alternatives, bringing total capital raised to over $180 million [1][3]. Funding and Financial Performance - The Series D funding round was supported by existing investors including Emergence Capital, Caffeinated Capital, StepStone Group, and Pear VC [1]. - Less than a year prior, Federato raised $40 million in a Series C round [1]. - The company has reported a threefold increase in revenues over the past year, attributed to new customer acquisition and expanded usage among existing clients [1]. Technological Advancements - The growth has been driven by the adoption of agentic AI, a technology pioneered by Federato's co-founders for over a decade [2]. - Federato's platform enables insurers to customize workflows and strategies in response to AI integration [2]. - The agentic AI systems allow for complex analysis while enabling human personnel to focus on decision-making that requires nuanced judgment and interpersonal skills [3]. Market Demand and Investment Impact - The demand for AI-native capabilities has exceeded expectations, and the investment from Goldman Sachs will help meet customer needs [4]. - Goldman Sachs Alternatives Growth Equity noted that Federato's platform offers a significant improvement in ROI and efficiency compared to previous core systems [4]. - Federato has developed a comprehensive policy life cycle solution that is already delivering measurable results for insurers [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, influenced by the performance of related ETFs and expectations regarding central bank gold purchases, despite short-term pressure from adjusted interest rate expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close of the Asian market, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.6%, reaching $4,093 per ounce [1] - Gold-related ETFs showed strong gains, with Huaxia ETF (518850) up by 1.78%, non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) up by 1.86%, and gold stock ETF (159562) up by 4.13% [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Goldman Sachs reported that global central bank gold purchases are ongoing, with an expected average monthly purchase of 80 tons from Q4 2025 to 2026 [1] - The increase in central bank gold purchases, along with the largest monthly inflow into Western gold ETFs since mid-2022 (112 tons), indicates strong demand from both central banks and retail investors [1] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for gold prices, projecting a rise to $4,900 by the end of 2026 [1] - Analysts from Baocheng Futures noted that the downward revision of interest rate expectations is largely due to previous market optimism, suggesting a potential return to data-driven analysis [1] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for September, as well as subsequent economic data, which will directly impact expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies and the short-term trends in precious metals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple foreign securities and fund companies have released outlook reports for 2026, indicating that the current Chinese stock market has medium to long-term allocation value driven by ample liquidity and improving profitability [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - UBS sets the MSCI China Index target for the end of 2026 at 100, representing a 14% upside from current levels [3] - Morgan Stanley raises its target for the CSI 300 Index to 4840 points by December 2026, citing moderate corporate profit growth and a more favorable external environment [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Foreign institutions favor sectors such as technology, internet, and high-dividend assets [4] - UBS is optimistic about technology stocks, internet stocks, and the brokerage sector, while Morgan Stanley recommends a "barbell strategy" focusing on high-quality internet and technology leaders alongside some high-dividend assets for stable cash returns [4] - Goldman Sachs has identified 50 stocks across 21 sub-industries, including 30 A-shares and 20 overseas-listed Chinese stocks, expected to outperform the market in the future [4] Group 3: Cross-Border Investment Facilitation - Foreign institutions express confidence in China's capital market due to a series of landmark opening measures aimed at enhancing cross-border investment and financing convenience [5] - The recent approval of Huafu International Asset Management Co., Ltd. as a qualified foreign investor by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) exemplifies the expedited approval process [6] - The CSRC has introduced an optimization plan for the qualified foreign investor system, aiming to streamline the investment pre-approval process and enhance efficiency in various related procedures [6][7]

高盛总裁沃尔德伦表示，如果次级贷款领域出现更多问题，他并不感到意外。 ...