高盛集团的经济学家表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对欧洲部分国家最新提出的10%关税威胁可能会对 欧元区国内生产总值（GDP）构成约0.1%的拖累。 特朗普周六表示，将对声援格陵兰的欧洲国家征收关税。相关措施将适用于丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、 德国、芬兰、英国和荷兰。 高盛团队估计，10%的关税将通过贸易的减少使上述受影响国家的实际GDP下降0.1%至0.2%。他们表 示，德国面临的冲击将最大，如果是增量对等关税，料对其GDP构成约0.2%的冲击；如果是全面征 收，影响料为0.3%。 "如果信心受挫或金融市场出现不利影响，冲击可能更大，"包括Sven Jari Stehn在内的团队在报告中写 道。 高盛经济学家表示，关税是否会真正落地仍"高度不确定"，而欧盟可能的回应包括：拖延与美国的贸易 协议、征收反制性关税，或启动所谓的"反胁迫工具"。高盛预计，英国将把重点放在与特朗普进行外交 层面的接触上，与去年贸易谈判时的做法类似。 高盛经济学家还认为，对通胀的影响"非常小"，并预计各国央行会根据GDP前景下调利率。 责任编辑：何云 高盛集团的经济学家表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对欧洲部分国家最新提出的10%关税威胁可能会 ...

钛媒体App 1月19日消息，高盛表示，特朗普针对欧洲国家的关税威胁"具有破坏性"，将在本周对美元 构成压力。高盛首席外汇与新兴市场策略师Kamakshya Trivedi表示："我们已经连续两个周末遇到这种 情况了 —— 出现破坏性的美国政策，这会让围绕美国资产的光环多少受到质疑。上周末围绕美联储的 问题就是如此，我认为这次围绕关税的问题也会如此"。特朗普宣布对八个反对其收购格陵兰计划的国 家加征关税，令贸易紧张局势升级。Trivedi补充称："刚刚这个周末发生的事情，可能会引发又一波类 似的对美国资产进行分散配置和对冲的浪潮。这意味着，本周美元会相对走弱"。（广角观察） ...

AI Industrialization and Breakthroughs - 2025 marked a significant transition from AI experimentation to industrialization, with major advancements in models, agents, infrastructure, and governance [1] - The launch of DeepSeek's DeepSeek-R1 reasoning model demonstrated that world-class reasoning could be achieved with open-source models, challenging closed-source models [1] - The $500 billion public-private joint venture, Stargate, initiated a new era of AI infrastructure, termed the "gigawatt era" [1] - Major model launches by OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic at the end of 2025 showcased enhanced deep thinking, reasoning, and multimodality capabilities [1] M&A and Capital Markets Activity - The global business community is experiencing strong catalysts for M&A and capital markets activity, driven by AI as a growth catalyst [2] - CEO and board confidence is high, with a focus on strategic and financing activities aimed at scale, growth, and innovation as AI becomes an industrial driver [2] - M&A activity surged in 2025, with a total volume of $5.1 trillion, reflecting a 44% year-over-year increase [11] IPO Market Outlook - An "IPO mega-cycle" is anticipated, characterized by unprecedented deal volumes and sizes, with institutionally mature companies going public [8] - The current IPO cycle is expected to feature larger deals compared to previous waves, with companies having raised significant private capital before going public [8][9] - The reopening of the IPO window presents opportunities for investors to engage with transformative and rapidly growing companies [10] Strategic Dealmaking Trends - The M&A landscape is shifting towards bold and strategic transactions, with companies seeking to acquire AI capabilities and digital infrastructure [12] - Boards are now making high-stakes decisions in a rapidly evolving technological environment, where traditional benchmarks may not apply [13] - Financial sponsors are returning to the M&A stage, with a significant increase in M&A volumes and a focus on executing take-privates and strategic carveouts [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies are prompting a shift in global investment strategies, with a notable trend towards non-U.S. assets as investors seek diversification and better returns outside the U.S. market [1][6][7]. Group 1: U.S.-Europe Trade Relations - Goldman Sachs warns that the EU may call for the activation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) in response to U.S. trade threats, particularly regarding President Trump's proposed tariffs on European nations opposing the Greenland acquisition [1][4]. - Deutsche Bank highlights the risk of Europe selling off its $8 trillion in U.S. assets, emphasizing the strategic leverage Europe holds as the largest creditor to the U.S. [1][3]. - The potential activation of ACI could lead to a range of non-tariff retaliatory measures from the EU, indicating a shift from traditional trade disputes to capital and regulatory confrontations [5][4]. Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a growing emphasis on non-U.S. investments due to high valuations in the U.S. market and a saturated allocation of U.S. stocks in many portfolios, leading investors to seek opportunities in other regions [6][7]. - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia (Malaysia and India), Latin America (Mexico and Brazil), and Africa (South Africa and Egypt), are gaining attention as they present high-yield opportunities despite facing risks from U.S. trade policies [8]. - The trend of reallocating investments away from the U.S. is expected to accelerate, as investors recognize the potential for better returns in non-U.S. markets, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of capital flow [7][6].

Core Viewpoint - A significant influx of $950 million into a gold ETF has reversed the fund's net outflow trend for the year, marking a rare gold rush in global capital markets [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - The gold ETF has shown remarkable growth in 2025, with an annual increase nearing 64%, breaking historical records since its inception in 2004 [4] - In early 2026, the gold ETF has already achieved over a 6% increase, outperforming the performance of U.S. stocks during the same period [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Warnings - While retail investors are optimistic about gold as a "sure-win" investment, Goldman Sachs has issued warnings about potential strategic errors in chasing gold prices [4] - Goldman Sachs' investment strategy chief highlighted that gold's volatility is significantly higher than that of U.S. stocks, with historical maximum drawdowns reaching 70% [6] - The firm noted that gold has only outperformed inflation in about half of the past 20 years, contrasting with U.S. stocks that have shown stronger inflation resistance [6] Group 3: Historical Context and Risks - Historical data indicates that over 30% of deep corrections in gold prices have occurred five times in the last 40 years, often following significant price increases and shifts in monetary policy [9] - Current support for gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and a global central bank gold-buying trend, particularly from emerging market central banks [9] - The interplay of de-dollarization, anti-globalization, and persistent geopolitical risks creates a fundamentally different market environment compared to historical patterns [9] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs recommends an overweight position in U.S. stocks, arguing that unless there is absolute certainty of an economic recession, the stock market will continue to benefit from strong corporate earnings [11] - Despite these recommendations, nearly $1 billion continues to flow into gold ETFs, indicating a widespread belief in gold's safe-haven status, which may itself represent a risk signal [11] - Investors are urged to reconsider the notion of safety in assets when there is a consensus on their security [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Royal Bank of Canada has raised the target price for Goldman Sachs (GS.N) from $900 to $1030 [1]

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis focusing on Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Morgan Stanley, highlighting their performance and strategic positioning in the investment banking sector [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has shown resilience in its investment banking operations, adapting to market changes and maintaining a competitive edge [1] - Morgan Stanley is noted for its strong wealth management division, which has contributed significantly to its overall revenue growth [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs is recognized among the 15 Dividend Growth Stocks with the highest growth rates [1] - HSBC has slightly reduced its price target for Goldman Sachs to $604 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing recent pullbacks in bank stocks as potential opportunities for selective exposure [2] - Goldman Sachs reported Q4 2026 earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, driven by increased deal-making and strong trading performance [3] Financial Performance - Investment banking fees rose by 25% year-over-year to $2.58 billion, although this was slightly below the expected $2.66 billion [5] - Equity revenue reached a record $4.31 billion, up from $3.45 billion a year ago, benefiting from higher market volatility and a broader market rally [5] - Fixed income, currencies, and commodities trading revenue increased by 12.5% to $3.11 billion [5] Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs' CEO highlighted a favorable environment for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and capital markets in 2026, citing supportive factors such as a friendlier regulatory environment, lower interest rates, and substantial cash reserves on corporate balance sheets [4] - HSBC raised its adjusted EPS estimates for Goldman Sachs for 2025 and 2026 by approximately 1% to 7%, reflecting expectations for stronger net interest income and improved investment banking fees [2]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs identifies emerging markets as the most favorable investment destination for the next year and five years, rather than the United States [1] Group 1: Emerging Markets Outlook - The expected basic return rate for emerging market stocks is the highest at 8%, with a probability of 55% [2] - There is a 20% probability that emerging market returns will exceed expectations, while there is a 25% probability of experiencing low single-digit negative returns [2] - The volatility of expected returns for emerging markets is the highest among all markets [2] Group 2: Other Market Predictions - The expected return for U.S. stocks, represented by the S&P 500 index, ranks second with a projected growth rate of 7% over the next 12 months and an average return of 6% over the next five years [6] - UK stocks and the MSCI All Country World Index are projected to have average returns of 5% over the next five years, ranking third and fourth respectively [7] Group 3: U.S. Stock Valuation - Despite U.S. stock valuations being at historical highs, Goldman Sachs denies the existence of a bubble, attributing high valuations to reduced volatility in the U.S. economy, which supports stronger corporate earnings stability [8] - The report indicates that valuation itself has limited impact on investment decisions regarding market entry or exit [8] Group 4: Recommended Investment Funds - Goldman Sachs recommends several funds expected to perform well, including iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Franklin FTSE UK ETF (FLGB), and iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI) [8]

Summary of Economic Data Surprises and Market Reactions in 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US economy, analyzing economic data surprises, forecasting performance, and market reactions related to growth and inflation in 2025 [1][2]. Key Points Economic Growth - The US GDP is projected to have increased just under 2.5% Q4/Q4 in 2025, aligning with the initial forecast of 2.4% and surpassing the consensus forecast of 1.9% [3][4]. - Initial growth forecasts were lowered by 1.9 percentage points due to anticipated large tariffs, but were later adjusted upward after the most disruptive tariffs were scaled back [4][5]. Inflation - The core PCE price index increased by approximately 2.8% Q4/Q4 in 2025, which is higher than the forecast of 2.4% and reflects a modest progress in disinflation [12][16]. - The overshoot in inflation is attributed to larger-than-expected tariffs, contributing an estimated 60 basis points to the year-on-year rate [12][16]. Forecast Performance - The hit rate for economic indicator forecasts averaged 71% in 2025, slightly above the 64% average since 2017, with notable accuracy in GDP (100% correct) and core CPI (90% correct) [16][22]. - The performance lagged for the ISM manufacturing index, achieving only a 44% hit rate, indicating overly optimistic forecasts for manufacturing surveys [22][29]. Market Reactions - Market sensitivity to inflation data surprises was notably high, with stock market reactions at 1.5 times the normal level and bond market reactions at 2.6 times the historical average [29][33]. - The relative importance of the unemployment rate in market reactions has increased, with an estimated 80% weight on unemployment surprises compared to 20% on nonfarm payrolls, reflecting uncertainty in labor market conditions [36][39]. Economic Indicators - The report includes various economic indicators such as consumer expenditures, business fixed investment, and housing market statistics, projecting a mixed outlook for these areas in 2025 and beyond [43][44]. - Notable projections include a decline in residential fixed investment by 2.1% and an increase in business fixed investment by 4.1% in 2025 [43]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the impact of frontloading imports ahead of tariff increases, which distorted GDP measurements due to the differing treatment of imports and inventory investments [8][9]. - The economic outlook for 2026 suggests potential moderation in market reactions due to expected healthy growth and lower inflation, but uncertainties in the labor market may keep reactions elevated [39]. Conclusion - The analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the US economic landscape in 2025, emphasizing the interplay between tariffs, inflation, and market reactions, while also highlighting the forecasting accuracy and challenges faced by analysts in predicting economic trends.