Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a "Fed credibility trade" and suggests that the current market does not feel like a volatility 5x market, indicating a cautious outlook on volatility levels [1]. Core Insights - The current market volatility is perceived as unusually low, reminiscent of the lowest levels seen during Trump's first term, with significant implications for trading strategies [1]. - There is a notable demand for cyclical assets, evidenced by large short positions in macro products and software, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [9]. - The report highlights that the total gamma estimates for SPX are showing a certain counter-cyclicality within the first 3% of spot price fluctuations, suggesting potential trading opportunities [5]. - The technology sector continues to face pressure, with a reported decline of -2.3 standard deviations, marking it as one of the most impacted sectors [12]. - Small-cap stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 for 11 consecutive trading days, a trend not seen since 2008, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Prime Book - The total short positions in the U.S. fundamentals have been at the 100th percentile over the past 1, 3, and 5-year periods, indicating extreme bearish sentiment [12]. - Macro products are facing significant shorting, with investors looking to profit from increased market differentiation ahead of earnings season [12]. 2. Shares - The report notes a busy week with various meetings and earnings reports, highlighting the "Trump positive" trades being closed out [14]. 3. Futures - CTA positions remain heavily long, with increasing risks of liquidation as the market stagnates, despite no recent investor inquiries about these stocks [15]. 4. Derivatives - The report discusses the rare occurrence of both stock and fixed income volatility being low simultaneously, creating opportunities for high-leverage, low-premium stocks and fixed income double-digit bonds [17]. 5. Emerging Markets - A survey of over 400 fund managers shows a strong preference for returns from emerging markets, with significant investments in options indicating bullish sentiment [19]. 6. ETFs - Small-cap stocks are highlighted as popular trading targets, with IWC (micro-cap ETF) showing consistent daily gains this year [26]. 7. Baskets - The report suggests expanding investment scope, recommending long positions in companies leveraging AI to enhance productivity [22]. 8. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies opportunities in stocks and mixed-rate bonds, noting low implied prices that could yield convexity returns under reasonable strike prices [27].

Company Overview - On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) is a Swiss company recognized for its innovative sportswear, particularly its running shoes featuring CloudTec technology, which offers a cushioned yet responsive running experience [1] Market Performance - Goldman Sachs has set a price target of $59 for ONON, indicating a potential increase of about 31% from its current price of $45.05 [2][6] - The stock has recently declined by 2.07%, underperforming broader market indices such as the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq [2][6] - Over the past month, ONON's stock has decreased by 5.08%, while the Retail-Wholesale sector gained 5.39% and the S&P 500 increased by 1.99% [3] Earnings Expectations - The investment community is anticipating On Holding's earnings per share (EPS) to be $0.26, which would represent a 31.58% decrease from the same quarter last year [3] - Despite the expected drop in EPS, revenue is projected to rise by 29.41% to $894.52 million compared to the same quarter last year, indicating strong demand for the company's products [4] Trading Activity - Today's trading volume for ONON is 3,898,642 shares, with the stock trading between a low of $44.99 and a high of $46.21 [5] - Over the past year, ONON has experienced significant volatility, reaching a high of $64.05 and a low of $34.38 [5]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has shown strong performance, contributing to a rebound in bank stocks alongside Morgan Stanley and BlackRock, despite earlier weak quarters reported by other banks [1] - Goldman Sachs reported phenomenal numbers across various metrics, indicating robust financial health and operational success [1] - BlackRock has reached a significant milestone, managing an impressive $14 trillion in assets, highlighting its dominance in asset management [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs provides a range of financial services, including investment banking, asset and wealth management, and banking solutions, positioning itself as a key player in the financial services industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is shifting focus from the defense and real estate sectors to broader economic areas, increasing regulatory pressure on major U.S. banks, raising concerns among investors about potential restrictions on capital return plans [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Pressure on Banks - Major banks may become the next target for regulatory actions following Trump's pressure on defense contractors and homebuilders to limit stock buybacks, leading to heightened concerns about policy risks for bank stocks [1][2]. - The government's direct intervention tools over the banking sector are more pronounced compared to other industries, as banks' dividend payments and stock buyback capabilities are already constrained by regulatory limits and capital adequacy requirements [1][5]. - The potential restriction on buybacks could directly impact investor return expectations, as buybacks are a key reason many investors favor bank stocks due to their ability to return capital and support share prices [1][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Precedents - The significant scale of stock buybacks by major banks, totaling over $500 billion in the past decade, makes them susceptible to populist policies, with political pressure mounting against such capital return behaviors [3]. - Trump's recent actions demonstrate a willingness and capability to intervene in corporate capital allocation, as seen with his executive order prohibiting defense contractors from paying dividends or repurchasing stock until they meet production standards [4]. - Similar pressures are being applied to the real estate sector, with scrutiny on homebuilders' buyback activities amid record profits, indicating a broader trend of regulatory tightening across industries [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Role and Uncertainty - The Federal Reserve's regulatory authority over major banks provides Trump with a significant leverage point to disrupt capital plans, as banks' ability to pay dividends and conduct buybacks is contingent on regulatory capital rules [5][6]. - Trump's disregard for the independence of the Federal Reserve could enhance his influence over regulatory policies, potentially leading to shifts in the regulatory landscape that could affect banks' capital return strategies [6]. - Historical data shows that banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have achieved annualized returns of 22% from stock buybacks over the past decade, but these past performance metrics are now facing unprecedented policy challenges due to potential regulatory changes [6].

Core Viewpoint - Rising electricity costs are becoming a central issue in the U.S. political agenda, surpassing other types of inflation, with data centers being a focal point of criticism from both political parties [3][4]. Group 1: Electricity Cost Trends - Electricity costs in the U.S. increased by 6.7% year-over-year in December, with a cumulative rise of approximately 38% since 2020, while overall consumer prices only rose by 2.7% during the same period [4]. - In the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, cumulative bill inflation reached 29% over the past three years, significantly higher than the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [9]. - Factors contributing to rising electricity costs include aging infrastructure, natural disasters, state renewable energy initiatives, and fluctuations in fuel costs [5]. Group 2: Political Implications - The issue of rising electricity prices is expected to be a key topic in the upcoming gubernatorial elections across 36 states, with many public utility commissions facing elections this year [6]. - Political pressure is mounting in various states, with governors and senators expressing concerns about the impact of rising electricity costs on households, particularly in relation to large data centers [5][8]. - High-profile political figures, including former President Trump, are leveraging the electricity cost issue to appeal to voters, emphasizing the responsibility of large tech companies to bear the costs associated with their energy consumption [4][8]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Goldman Sachs suggests that investors should hedge against the "politicization of AI" risk, as concerns about data center energy consumption are rising among policymakers [11][12]. - The firm identifies three main concerns regarding investments in data centers: the substantial cash flow invested in infrastructure, the accuracy of measuring demand for data center capacity, and potential regulatory controls introduced by midterm elections [11]. - Goldman Sachs recommends specific trading strategies, including going long on non-tech companies that improve productivity through AI, and hedging against volatility related to the political discourse surrounding AI [12].

高盛集团的经济学家表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对欧洲部分国家最新提出的10%关税威胁可能会对 欧元区国内生产总值（GDP）构成约0.1%的拖累。 特朗普周六表示，将对声援格陵兰的欧洲国家征收关税。相关措施将适用于丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、 德国、芬兰、英国和荷兰。 高盛团队估计，10%的关税将通过贸易的减少使上述受影响国家的实际GDP下降0.1%至0.2%。他们表 示，德国面临的冲击将最大，如果是增量对等关税，料对其GDP构成约0.2%的冲击；如果是全面征 收，影响料为0.3%。 "如果信心受挫或金融市场出现不利影响，冲击可能更大，"包括Sven Jari Stehn在内的团队在报告中写 道。 高盛经济学家表示，关税是否会真正落地仍"高度不确定"，而欧盟可能的回应包括：拖延与美国的贸易 协议、征收反制性关税，或启动所谓的"反胁迫工具"。高盛预计，英国将把重点放在与特朗普进行外交 层面的接触上，与去年贸易谈判时的做法类似。 高盛经济学家还认为，对通胀的影响"非常小"，并预计各国央行会根据GDP前景下调利率。 责任编辑：何云 高盛集团的经济学家表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对欧洲部分国家最新提出的10%关税威胁可能会 ...

钛媒体App 1月19日消息，高盛表示，特朗普针对欧洲国家的关税威胁"具有破坏性"，将在本周对美元 构成压力。高盛首席外汇与新兴市场策略师Kamakshya Trivedi表示："我们已经连续两个周末遇到这种 情况了 —— 出现破坏性的美国政策，这会让围绕美国资产的光环多少受到质疑。上周末围绕美联储的 问题就是如此，我认为这次围绕关税的问题也会如此"。特朗普宣布对八个反对其收购格陵兰计划的国 家加征关税，令贸易紧张局势升级。Trivedi补充称："刚刚这个周末发生的事情，可能会引发又一波类 似的对美国资产进行分散配置和对冲的浪潮。这意味着，本周美元会相对走弱"。（广角观察） ...

AI Industrialization and Breakthroughs - 2025 marked a significant transition from AI experimentation to industrialization, with major advancements in models, agents, infrastructure, and governance [1] - The launch of DeepSeek's DeepSeek-R1 reasoning model demonstrated that world-class reasoning could be achieved with open-source models, challenging closed-source models [1] - The $500 billion public-private joint venture, Stargate, initiated a new era of AI infrastructure, termed the "gigawatt era" [1] - Major model launches by OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic at the end of 2025 showcased enhanced deep thinking, reasoning, and multimodality capabilities [1] M&A and Capital Markets Activity - The global business community is experiencing strong catalysts for M&A and capital markets activity, driven by AI as a growth catalyst [2] - CEO and board confidence is high, with a focus on strategic and financing activities aimed at scale, growth, and innovation as AI becomes an industrial driver [2] - M&A activity surged in 2025, with a total volume of $5.1 trillion, reflecting a 44% year-over-year increase [11] IPO Market Outlook - An "IPO mega-cycle" is anticipated, characterized by unprecedented deal volumes and sizes, with institutionally mature companies going public [8] - The current IPO cycle is expected to feature larger deals compared to previous waves, with companies having raised significant private capital before going public [8][9] - The reopening of the IPO window presents opportunities for investors to engage with transformative and rapidly growing companies [10] Strategic Dealmaking Trends - The M&A landscape is shifting towards bold and strategic transactions, with companies seeking to acquire AI capabilities and digital infrastructure [12] - Boards are now making high-stakes decisions in a rapidly evolving technological environment, where traditional benchmarks may not apply [13] - Financial sponsors are returning to the M&A stage, with a significant increase in M&A volumes and a focus on executing take-privates and strategic carveouts [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies are prompting a shift in global investment strategies, with a notable trend towards non-U.S. assets as investors seek diversification and better returns outside the U.S. market [1][6][7]. Group 1: U.S.-Europe Trade Relations - Goldman Sachs warns that the EU may call for the activation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) in response to U.S. trade threats, particularly regarding President Trump's proposed tariffs on European nations opposing the Greenland acquisition [1][4]. - Deutsche Bank highlights the risk of Europe selling off its $8 trillion in U.S. assets, emphasizing the strategic leverage Europe holds as the largest creditor to the U.S. [1][3]. - The potential activation of ACI could lead to a range of non-tariff retaliatory measures from the EU, indicating a shift from traditional trade disputes to capital and regulatory confrontations [5][4]. Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a growing emphasis on non-U.S. investments due to high valuations in the U.S. market and a saturated allocation of U.S. stocks in many portfolios, leading investors to seek opportunities in other regions [6][7]. - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia (Malaysia and India), Latin America (Mexico and Brazil), and Africa (South Africa and Egypt), are gaining attention as they present high-yield opportunities despite facing risks from U.S. trade policies [8]. - The trend of reallocating investments away from the U.S. is expected to accelerate, as investors recognize the potential for better returns in non-U.S. markets, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of capital flow [7][6].

Core Viewpoint - A significant influx of $950 million into a gold ETF has reversed the fund's net outflow trend for the year, marking a rare gold rush in global capital markets [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - The gold ETF has shown remarkable growth in 2025, with an annual increase nearing 64%, breaking historical records since its inception in 2004 [4] - In early 2026, the gold ETF has already achieved over a 6% increase, outperforming the performance of U.S. stocks during the same period [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Warnings - While retail investors are optimistic about gold as a "sure-win" investment, Goldman Sachs has issued warnings about potential strategic errors in chasing gold prices [4] - Goldman Sachs' investment strategy chief highlighted that gold's volatility is significantly higher than that of U.S. stocks, with historical maximum drawdowns reaching 70% [6] - The firm noted that gold has only outperformed inflation in about half of the past 20 years, contrasting with U.S. stocks that have shown stronger inflation resistance [6] Group 3: Historical Context and Risks - Historical data indicates that over 30% of deep corrections in gold prices have occurred five times in the last 40 years, often following significant price increases and shifts in monetary policy [9] - Current support for gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and a global central bank gold-buying trend, particularly from emerging market central banks [9] - The interplay of de-dollarization, anti-globalization, and persistent geopolitical risks creates a fundamentally different market environment compared to historical patterns [9] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs recommends an overweight position in U.S. stocks, arguing that unless there is absolute certainty of an economic recession, the stock market will continue to benefit from strong corporate earnings [11] - Despite these recommendations, nearly $1 billion continues to flow into gold ETFs, indicating a widespread belief in gold's safe-haven status, which may itself represent a risk signal [11] - Investors are urged to reconsider the notion of safety in assets when there is a consensus on their security [11]