今日 A 股市场呈现小幅震荡上行态势，修复了昨日高开低走的走势。然而，两市成交额较前一交易日减少 1833 亿元，降至 1.32 万亿元，反映出市场交投情 绪仍显谨慎。 在成交量萎缩的背景下，市场消息频出，其中最受关注的当属川普释放的动态。 当下市场消息繁杂纷扰，我已将关键信息梳理完毕。在这样复杂的市场形势下，普通投资者该如何应对？接下来将详细阐述。请各位着重留意文章结尾部 分，这里提炼了全文核心，建议认真研读。 一，消息满天飞 川普于其个人社交平台发布消息称，北京时间今晚 10 点，将公布一项与某大国的 "重大贸易协议" 。 该消息发布后，黄金价格应声下挫，日内跌幅近 2%。 此外，今日凌晨美联储举行货币政策会议，美联储主席鲍师傅指出，当前并无必要仓促调整利率，现行政策处于适度限制性区间，强调特朗普的降息主张不 会干扰美联储决策。 高盛持续看好中国股市表现，维持 "增持" 评级。其最新报告将未来 12 个月 MSCI 中国指数和沪深 300 指数目标点位分别上调至 78 点和 4400 点，预示潜在 涨幅分别达 7% 和 15%。 同时，巴铁与邻国的相关动态，再度点燃军工板块热度，军工股连续两日强势上涨，多 ...

高盛今年多次看多中国资产 根据公开资料，高盛2025年多次发表看多中国资产的报告。 高盛最新报告将未来12个月MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数的目标值抬高至78点和4400点，这意味着有 7%和15%的潜在上升空间。高盛今年以来持续看多中国资产，MSCI中国指数年初至今涨幅也超过 12%。 高盛研报称，中国股市保持韧性，原因包括美元走弱、经济增长强劲以及中国国内政策支持。此前，高 盛还将全年南向资金净买入额的预期从750亿美元上调至1100亿美元，原因包括资金从美国流向中国、 H股的成长性与估值优势，以及新股IPO和"回归"上市推动南向可投资范围扩大。 高盛坚定做空美元和做多黄金 该行还表达了对美联储独立性的担忧，认为美国货币政策独立性面临根本性威胁。高盛表示，若白宫获 得"无正当理由"罢免主席及FOMC成员的权力(正当理由定义为效率低下、玩忽职守或渎职)，那么美联 储将成为发达国家央行中独立性保障最差的机构。 本文转载自"万得股票"，智通财经编辑：蒋远华。 Jan Hatzius 称，"对美国未来12个月经济衰退风险的估计的概率仍然是45%，仍然预计一些领域的关税 将进一步增加，例如制药和半导体等行业。" ...

关税的一丝利好都能挑动市场的神经！ 今天早上，美国总统特朗普在社交平台发文称，美国东部时间周四上午10时(北京时间今日晚上10时)将举行重大新闻发布会，内容涉及与某国代表达成的一项重大 贸易协议。美股指由跌转升涨逾百点，纳指期货拉线拉升，涨幅扩大至0.79%，道指期货升136点，标指期货升29.75点。 在此带动之下，亚太市场也迎来全线反弹。港股反应更为强烈，恒生科技指数直线拉升，涨幅扩大至1.5%附近。A50早盘表现也相当出色，一度涨超1%。A股市场 表现虽显平淡，但相当稳健，上涨个股接近4000只。高盛最新报告将未来12个月MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数的目标值抬高至78点和4400点，这意味着有7%和15% 的潜在上升空间。 特朗普突然释放大信号 特朗普今早在社交平台暗示，将于周四宣布一项重要的贸易声明。 据CNN报道，一位熟悉政府计划的消息人士表示，该协议将与英国达成。这再次表明，历史性高关税重压可能得到缓解，这些关税曾严重威胁美国和全球经济发 展。 特朗普在帖子中没有具体说明是哪个国家，但特朗普政府暗示正在与印度、英国、韩国和日本进行积极谈判。特朗普的首席贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗周二告诉CNN，他 怀 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The upcoming implementation of large tariffs is expected to reverse the progress made in controlling inflation in the US, which had previously shown signs of stabilization in the labor market and wage growth [2][3] - Tariffs are projected to increase the core PCE price index by approximately 2¼%, with a significant impact on consumer electronics and apparel categories [6][22] - Year-over-year core PCE inflation is forecasted to be 3.8% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, which is higher than previous estimates [39][55] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact on Prices - Each 1 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate is estimated to raise core PCE prices by 0.10%, with an expected rise of about 15 percentage points in the effective tariff rate leading to a 1½% increase in core PCE prices [6][22] - The weakening of the dollar in response to tariff news is expected to amplify the direct impact of tariffs on prices [11][22] - A shift in import demand from China to countries with higher production costs but lower US tariff rates is anticipated to further raise US prices without a corresponding increase in the effective tariff rate [11][19] Sector-Specific Effects - Consumer electronics and apparel are particularly vulnerable to tariff impacts, with imported goods accounting for roughly 40% of final consumption expenditure in these categories [35][41] - The effective tariff rates on these imports are expected to increase by 20-30 percentage points, leading to significant price increases [35][41] Inflation Forecasts - The report predicts a sharp acceleration in core goods inflation, forecasting a rise from 0.4% in March 2025 to 6.3% in December 2025 [39][55] - Core services inflation is expected to remain less affected by tariffs in the initial months, allowing for a clearer comparison of the impact of tariffs on core goods versus core services [39][55] Market Expectations - The report indicates that the forecast for year-over-year headline CPI inflation is expected to rise from 2.4% to as high as 3.7% by March 2025, which is above market-implied expectations [55][56]

图表1：预计中美关税将从禁止性水平降至高位 硬数据韧性提振市场信心 虽然上周优于预期的非农数据采集自4月6-12日（时效性不足），但经纽约学校假期因素调整后的初请 失业金数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性（至少裁员端如此）。一季度GDP数据因提前采购严重失真可忽略 不计。金融条件已大幅宽松，当前FCI水平预示三季度对美国GDP增长的拖累峰值仅0.2个百分点（4月8 日预估为1.0个百分点）。 图表2：美国金融条件冲击现已温和负面 文章来源：金融界 在对其衰退预测反复横跳后，高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius正试图通过最新报告挽回公信力。这份典 型"两头下注"的报告，既承认Trump疯狂关税计划可能奏效，又强调美国经济韧性——同时迫于建制派 PhD们的压力，不得不继续维护现有"自由贸易"体系。 本周Hatzius被迫承认：Trump对华强硬策略可能即将见效．．．但万一失败，硬数据与软数据的背离终 将以宏观经济崩溃收场。不过做空美元+做多黄金似乎是他唯一确信的交易．．． 原文核心观点如下： Trump政府已开始软化最激进的关税政策 在暂停90天"对等报复性关税"、豁免ICT产品关税后，白宫近期修改汽车零部件关税以避免 ...

4月7日，当标普500指数触及周期低点4853点、市场风险骤增而不确定性飙升时，高盛风险主管Josh Schiffrin大胆发声，预言市场底部已至。正如我们在Schiffrin向其顶级客户发布报告约15分钟后向高级 订阅用户所通报的，这位高盛顶级交易员当时表示："我一直看空，但现在转为看多。是时候分批建仓 了。"他进一步阐述道： "当前市场感受糟糕，但我预计这只是暂时阶段，6-12个月内价格将走高。我认为双向尾部风险都很 大：一方面可能爆发全球贸易战/衰退，另一方面通过系列谈判可能降低贸易壁垒，叠加减税政策推动 市场强劲反弹。" 当市场血流成河之际，听从Schiffrin建议买入的投资者在一个月内获得了相当于全年回报的收益——标 普500指数反弹15%，在4月末至5月初惊人的9连涨后完全收复了"解放日"后的全部跌幅。 但所有交易终将落幕。时至今日，Schiffrin决定平仓离场。在昨夜发送给客户的报告中，他宣布"从看多 转向中性"，因为"短期内市场将进入横盘阶段"。以下是他对风险资产的最新观点节选： 虽然Schiffrin预期市场将经历较长时间消化，但他最终认为股市将恢复上行而非下跌，这与JPM交易部 门昨日 ...

4 May 2025 | 9:56PM HKT China: Trade Dashboard 2025Q1: Export volume growth remained strong ahead of the US "reciprocal" tariffs announcement (Yang) 1 These are based on BOP definitions; the goods trade surplus would be 4.8% of GDP in 2025 (vs. 5.2% in 2024) based on the Customs definition. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on US yields, suggesting that any material cheapening could present a buying opportunity for long positions, particularly in the context of broader growth expectations [1][2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that recent activity data has alleviated fears of an imminent economic deterioration, leading to a reassessment of Fed rate cut timing, now expected in July, September, or October [2]. - There is a belief that the recent dynamic of tariff de-escalation could extend in the near term, which may influence inflation and Fed signals [2]. - The report highlights a preference for buying 3m10y payers on the 3m 5s10s30s payer fly as a low-cost hedge against rising yields [1][5]. Summary by Sections United States and Canada - The labor market's health leaves rates pricing vulnerable to inflation surprises or a more vigilant Fed signal [2]. - The report anticipates that belly and long-end inflation will remain appealing if the positive growth trend continues [2]. - The Bank of Canada is expected to prioritize growth risks, with potential for further cuts if economic conditions worsen [2][19]. Europe - European core rates are stable, with limited signals from recent data for the ECB, which is expected to continue its cutting trajectory [11]. - The report suggests that sovereign credits like Bonos and BTPs may outperform core rates due to favorable ECB policies and macroeconomic performance in Spain and Italy [12]. - The report forecasts 10y Bund yields at 2.80% by the end of 2025, reflecting a stable outlook despite current market conditions [12]. Japan - The Bank of Japan's dovish tone and downgraded growth forecasts suggest skepticism about future rate hikes, with expectations pushed back to January 2026 [25]. - The report notes that the market is pricing in lower terminal rates, reflecting uncertainty about the BOJ's future actions [26]. Australia and New Zealand - The upcoming Australian election may influence fiscal and monetary policy, with potential stronger fiscal support if the incumbent Labor party remains in power [27]. - The report indicates that global growth risks may limit divergence between AUD and NZD rates [27]. Forecasts - The report provides a forecast for G10 10-year yields, with expectations for USD at 3.95% in 2Q25 and 4.00% in 4Q25, reflecting a cautious outlook on global economic conditions [31].

高盛上调美国通胀预期 金十数据5月8日讯，高盛经济学家预计美国核心PCE通胀到2025年底增长3.8%（此前预测为3.5%）， 2026年底2.7%（此前预测2.3%）。与这些预测相比，最新公布的核心PCE数据仅为2.6%。高盛表示， 美元因关税消息而走弱，这种走弱放大了关税对价格的直接影响，而非抵消这种影响。 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，高盛资管公共投资首席投资官Ashish Shah表示，目前美联储仍在观望，等待不确 定性的消除。近期的就业数据支持了美联储的立场，劳动力市场需要走弱到足以重启宽松周期。然而， 劳动力市场的任何疲软都可能需要几个月的时间才能显现出来，我们认为下个月的会议上再次维持利率 的可能性更大。 高盛：就业市场走弱尚需时日，下月大概率保持观望 ...