智通财经6月16日电，利弗莫尔证券显示，富卫集团有限公司通过港交所上市聆讯，联席保荐人为摩根 士丹利和高盛集团。 ...

智通财经6月16日电，摩根士丹利因伊朗与以色列的冲突将第三季布伦特原油价格预测上调至每桶67.50 美元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains its investment recommendations for the Asia EM Equity Strategy despite recent geopolitical events [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights Asia's vulnerability to oil price spikes, particularly following Israel's military actions against Iran, which have led to a rise in Brent oil prices to US$75 per barrel [2]. - Iran's oil exports, ranging from 1.4 million to 1.7 million barrels per day, predominantly reach Asian markets, exacerbating the region's trade deficits [3]. - Countries most affected by oil price increases relative to GDP include Thailand (7.2%), Korea (4.4%), Taiwan (4.1%), and India (3.1%) [3]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Trade Deficits - Thailand has the highest oil and gas trade deficit at 7.2% of GDP, followed by Korea at 4.4%, Taiwan at 4.1%, and India at 3.1% [3]. - The overall commodity trade balance for Asia shows a deficit of 3.5%, with significant variations across countries [3]. Current Account Balance - The current account balance for Thailand is -1.0%, while India shows a more favorable position at 14.7% [3]. - The report indicates that the current account balance is a critical metric for assessing economic stability in the context of rising oil prices [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses three significant changes in the industry: US-China trade negotiations, the partial suspension of China's consumer goods trade-in programs, and the acceleration of social welfare reforms in China, while highlighting that deflation remains a persistent macroeconomic issue [1][2][13] Summary by Sections US-China Trade Negotiations - The London trade talks represent a key advancement following the Geneva meeting where the US and China agreed to pause tariffs, although challenges remain due to differing expectations on non-tariff measures [2] - A Framework Agreement was established to implement the Geneva trade deal and utilize the bilateral economic consultation mechanism [2][3] - The scope of the London agreement appears limited, focusing primarily on non-tariff measures without significant US concessions beyond student visas [3] Consumer Goods Trade-in Programs - China has partially suspended its consumer goods trade-in programs due to the exhaustion of allocated trade-in funding in some regions, with Rmb162 billion already distributed out of a Rmb300 billion quota [4] - The rapid utilization of funds and the impact on retail sales indicate potential limitations of such stimulus measures, reminiscent of the US Cash-for-Clunkers program [8] - Despite these challenges, the report anticipates a modest expansion of the annual quota if economic growth declines [8] Social Welfare Reforms - China has released a blueprint aimed at enhancing the social welfare system, focusing on equal access to public services and addressing healthcare and elderly care concerns [9][10] - The reforms are characterized as gradual, with a focus on improving existing frameworks rather than implementing radical changes [10][11] - The report suggests that while some measures have been implemented, the overall pace of reform may be slow due to structural challenges and external pressures [11][13]

Company Performance - Morgan Stanley closed at $129.49, reflecting a -1.84% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's loss of 1.13% [1] - Over the past month, Morgan Stanley's shares decreased by 0.45%, while the Finance sector gained 1.24% and the S&P 500 increased by 3.55% [1] Earnings Expectations - Analysts anticipate Morgan Stanley will report earnings of $2.01 per share on July 16, 2025, indicating a year-over-year growth of 10.44% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is projected at $16.01 billion, reflecting a 6.6% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $8.58 per share and revenue of $65.1 billion, representing changes of +7.92% and +5.41% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Forecast Revisions - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Morgan Stanley are crucial as they reflect near-term business trends, with upward revisions indicating positive sentiment towards the company's operations [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Morgan Stanley currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS projection remaining unchanged over the past 30 days [6] - The company has a Forward P/E ratio of 15.38, which is higher than the industry average of 14.88, indicating a premium valuation [7] - The PEG ratio for Morgan Stanley is 1.2, compared to the industry average of 1.21 [7] Industry Context - The Financial - Investment Bank industry is ranked 95 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the top 39% of over 250 industries [8]

Core Viewpoint - Top banks, including JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, achieved their best performance in five years in Q1 2025 due to arbitrage opportunities leading to a surge of gold inflows into the U.S. [1] Group 1: Performance and Revenue - Twelve major banks earned $500 million from precious metals trading in Q1 2025, the second-highest figure in a decade, approximately double the average quarterly revenue over the past ten years [1] - The unexpected gains were partly due to high physical gold premiums in the U.S., driven by market concerns over potential tariffs on precious metals [2] - Morgan Stanley delivered 67 tons of gold to the New York Mercantile Exchange in Q1, the highest among all banks, valued at approximately $7 billion at current market prices [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The significant rise in gold and silver prices on the Comex far exceeded other international benchmarks, allowing traders to profit by purchasing physical gold in other trading centers and transporting it to the U.S. before tariffs took effect [2] - JPMorgan delivered over $4 billion worth of gold for settling February futures contracts, marking one of the largest single-day delivery notifications in the exchange's history [3] - The arbitrage opportunities were reminiscent of 2020 when the pandemic created long-term profit opportunities for banks that managed to transport physical gold to New York [2][5] Group 3: Market Influences - The market volatility triggered by President Trump's tariff plans contributed to the revenue growth of these twelve banks [6] - The trading volume in the London market has continued to rise against the backdrop of gold prices doubling since late 2022 [6]

摩根士丹利分析师周四在一份报告中表示，他们认为股市正在形成"新的'牛市论'"。 这一观点源于"过去30天内对'对等关税'的几乎完全逆转以及与中国贸易紧张局势的成功缓和"所带来的 市场反弹。 该银行表示，这一复苏使风险市场完全收复了"解放日"后回调的失地，年初至今的回报率现已转为"正 值"。 此外，还有"认为通胀风险被高估；低油价是有利因素；美联储将很快开始降息"，"相信前期加载的企 业减税"将推动"资本支出和生产力繁荣"，以及"生成式人工智能仍处于早期阶段"的信念。 摩根士丹利指出，"预计标普500指数2026年盈利增长将从2025年的7-8%加速至13-14%"。 然而，他们也警告说，股票估值的复苏已将远期市盈率推高至"21.5倍以上"，而"股权风险溢价仅为6个 基点"。 据称，风险包括"全球收益率曲线"陡峭化和美国预算赤字扩大，摩根士丹利认为这可能是"美国例外论 的不利因素"。 作者：Investing 摩根士丹利指出，标普500指数目前约为6,000点，较2月19日的历史最高点仅低约2.3%，而纳斯达克指 数"已从低点反弹超过25%"。 该银行写道，市场波动性（以VIX衡量）"已大幅下降，读数现已低于其 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on global economic growth, with a focus on the impact of tariffs and inflationary pressures, suggesting a potential slowdown in investment opportunities [15][22][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant global growth slowdown, particularly in the US, with GDP growth expected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 and 2026, driven by tariff-induced inflation and restrictive immigration policies [16][22]. - In the Euro area, growth is projected to remain around 1.0%, with inflation expected to undershoot the ECB's target due to a decline in private consumption and exports [17][22]. - Japan's economy is expected to show resilience, but inflation is moderating as the yen appreciates, leading to a hold on policy rates by the BoJ [18][22]. - China is anticipated to experience the largest slowdown, with real growth in 2025 expected to be 0.5 percentage points lower than in 2024, influenced by modest fiscal expansion and tariff impacts [19][22]. - India is projected to be the fastest-growing economy, with growth supported by domestic demand and fiscal policy, despite external headwinds [19][22]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow significantly, with core PCE inflation peaking at 4.5% in Q3 2025, while growth stalls by late 2025 [16][22]. - The Fed is anticipated to maintain its policy rate throughout 2025, with potential easing starting in March 2026 [16][22]. Euro Area Economic Outlook - Growth is forecasted to be below potential, with the ECB expected to cut rates to 1.5% by December 2025 due to weak economic activity [17][22]. Asia Economic Outlook - Tariff uncertainty is expected to weigh on growth in Asia, particularly affecting capital expenditures [24][25]. - China's GDP deflator is projected to remain negative, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [56]. CEEMEA and LatAm Economic Outlook - The CEEMEA region may see growth acceleration despite global uncertainties, while Brazil and Argentina are expected to fare better than Mexico amid the global slowdown [21][26]. - Mexico is significantly impacted by elevated global uncertainty, while Chile and Colombia are affected to a lesser extent [26][22]. Global Strategy - The report emphasizes that US risky and risk-free assets are attractive compared to the rest of the world, with a recommendation to overweight US equities and core fixed income [29][22].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on US dollar assets, recommending investors to overweight US stocks, US Treasuries, and US investment-grade corporate credit, while expressing a bearish view on the US dollar due to narrowing economic growth and yield differentials with other countries [1][4]. Economic Forecasts - The forecast for the S&P 500 index is set at 6,000 for June 2025, with a range of 4,900 in a bear scenario and 7,200 in a bull scenario by Q2 2026 [2]. - Global GDP growth is expected to decline from 3.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with US GDP growth slowing from 2.5% to 1.0% over the same period [3][8]. Asset Class Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality cyclical stocks and large-cap defensive stocks in the US, while in Europe, sectors such as defense, banking, software, telecommunications, and diversified finance are recommended for overweighting [5]. - Emerging markets should focus on financial sectors and companies with strong profitability, favoring domestic businesses over export-oriented firms [5]. Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - The US dollar index (DXY) is projected to decline by 9% to 91 by mid-2026, influenced by converging US interest rates and economic growth with other countries [9]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to drop to 4.00% by the end of 2025, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut rates by 175 basis points in 2026 [9][10]. Commodity Market Insights - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply increases, with Brent crude projected to fall to the low $50 range by mid-2026 [11]. - Gold is favored as a safe-haven asset, supported by strong central bank demand and ETF inflows, while industrial metals may face downward price risks due to potential economic slowdowns [12].

摩根士丹利称，日本较长期国债对外国人具有吸引力 金十数据6月11日讯，摩根士丹利说，外国投资者对较长期的日本债券感兴趣，而日本政府何时会调整 所售债券的规模仍不确定。该公司全球宏观策略主管Matthew Hornbach表示："日本政府长期债券市场 仍有大量供应，这为日本以外的投资者（从加拿大到欧洲到亚洲）带来了价值。""财政部调整发债计划 的节奏较慢，最终将从投资者那里得到需要减少发债的信息，但具体的时间框架尚不清楚，" Hornbach 称。 ...