Core Viewpoint - The December CPI data in the U.S. is expected to show a significant rebound due to statistical distortions from the government shutdown, rather than genuine inflationary pressures [1][4]. Group 1: CPI Predictions - Morgan Stanley forecasts a notable increase in the core CPI for December, with a month-on-month growth of 0.36%, significantly higher than the average of 0.08% in October and November [1][3]. - The likelihood of the core CPI rounding to 0.3% or 0.4% is considered equal, but the risk of reaching 0.5% is higher than 0.2% [3][8]. - The December data will provide clearer insights into the transmission of tariffs to consumer prices, which had been absent in the October and November data [3][10]. Group 2: Statistical Distortions - Two main statistical biases due to the government shutdown are expected to affect the December CPI data: - The dual-month sampling bias, which has led to an underestimation of inflation in October, is projected to contribute approximately 8 basis points to the December core CPI [4]. - The holiday discount bias, resulting from delayed price collection in November, is expected to add an additional 3 basis points to the core CPI prediction [4]. Group 3: Inflation Trends - Core goods inflation is anticipated to reach a new high for the year, with a projected month-on-month increase of 0.59% in December, driven by rising prices in new and used cars, clothing, and other core goods [5]. - Rent inflation is expected to normalize, with the owner's equivalent rent (OER) projected to grow by 0.27% month-on-month in December [5]. - Overall CPI is expected to rebound with a month-on-month growth of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [5]. Group 4: Key Focus Areas - The uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of the rebound is acknowledged, with the potential for actual data to exceed the forecasted growth [8]. - The sustainability of the slowdown in housing inflation will be assessed with December serving as a clean observation point following significant declines in September [9]. - The timing of tariff transmission effects is crucial, as December data will be a key verification window for the impact of tariffs on core inflation, which is expected to contribute an additional 45 basis points [10]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Strong data may be dismissed by the market as statistical noise, while weak data could signal a significant cooling of inflation [11]. - The asymmetry in market reactions suggests that if December CPI falls below expectations, it could significantly boost interest rate-sensitive assets, whereas data that meets or slightly exceeds expectations may not provoke strong market responses [11][14].

来源：市场资讯 摩根士丹利每年的董事总经理晋升规模都不尽相同。2025年晋升173名，2024年晋升155名，2023年任命 了184名，2022年则晋升了199名。 （来源：金融干货精选） 摩根士丹利，于昨天任命了184位新的董事总经理，同时摩根士丹利也已向员工公布了奖金发放情况， 是华尔街首批告知员工其去年贡献如何转化为激励性薪酬的公司之一。 以下是摩根士丹利公布的2026届董事总经理候选人构成统计数据： 在摩根士丹利的平均任期约为11年，35%的新晋董事总经理拥有高级学位，49%的新晋董事总经理最初 以非管理层职位入职 部门分布： 70%来自营收部门，30%来自基础设施部门、公司中后台部门或企业职能部门。 机构证券集团：48%； 周三(2026年1月7日)，不仅是摩根士丹利员工的奖金公布日，也是摩根士丹利董事总经理(MD)任命日。 财富管理：9%； 区域分布： 美洲 67%，欧洲、中东和非洲地区 18%，亚洲 14%； 新晋董事总经理来自14个国家/地区； 27%的新晋董事总经理为女性，73%为男性。 摩根士丹利已于周三通知了这些新晋高管，预计将在未来几天内公布完整的名单。 投资管理：12%； ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the strengthening of the Renminbi and ample liquidity have led to an increase in trading volume at the beginning of the new year, significantly improving investor sentiment towards the Chinese stock market [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The firm remains optimistic about the Chinese market over the next 6 to 12 months, citing ongoing liquidity support, continuous technological advancements, and a wide range of thematic opportunities [1] Group 2: Key Focus Areas - Morgan Stanley is closely monitoring earnings growth momentum and potential additional fiscal support, particularly any measures related to mortgage subsidies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is advancing its business strategy in digital assets, wealth management, and private markets, with plans to launch cryptocurrency trading services and a digital wallet by mid-2026 [1] Group 1: Digital Assets - The company plans to introduce trading services for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana on its E*Trade platform in the first half of 2026, supported by Zerohash's infrastructure [1] - A proprietary digital wallet is set to be launched in the second half of 2026, aimed at facilitating tokenized asset transactions [1] Group 2: Private Markets - Morgan Stanley is considering the use of equity tokenization to enhance transaction and settlement efficiency in private markets [1] - However, the company will primarily rely on traditional trading structures in the short term [1]

Morgan Stanley (MS) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This rating change essentially reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.A company's changing earnings picture is at the core of the Zacks rating. The system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus measure of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years.The p ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended December 2025, with consensus estimates indicating a potential impact on its stock price depending on actual results compared to expectations [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate for Morgan Stanley is $2.36 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +6.3% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $17.35 billion, which is a 6.9% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 4.05% higher, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Morgan Stanley is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +1.72% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - A positive Earnings ESP reading suggests a higher likelihood of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 [10]. - Morgan Stanley currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1, indicating strong potential for beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Morgan Stanley exceeded the expected earnings of $2.08 per share by delivering $2.80, resulting in a surprise of +34.62% [13]. - The company has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters [14]. Industry Context - Citigroup, a peer in the investment banking sector, is expected to report earnings of $1.59 per share for the same quarter, reflecting a year-over-year change of +18.7% [18]. - Citigroup's revenue is anticipated to be $20.94 billion, up 7% from the previous year [18]. However, it has a negative Earnings ESP of -12.71%, making predictions about beating consensus EPS estimates less certain [19].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan predicts a rate cut of approximately 150 basis points by 2026, which could create around one million jobs without triggering inflation [1] - Milan believes that the current policy is not neutral and that the U.S. economy is still significantly above neutral levels [1] - The core inflation level has reportedly returned to near the Fed's target of 2%, and the U.S. economy is expected to maintain strong growth this year [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release non-farm payroll data, which is anticipated to show an increase of 73,000 jobs in December 2025, up from 64,000 in November 2025, with the unemployment rate expected to slightly decrease to 4.5% [1] - Market analysis indicates that the recent ADP data, despite being weak, confirms a trend of "orderly cooling" in the labor market, which may reinforce expectations for continued rate cuts by the Fed in the first half of the year [1] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices will rise to $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, surpassing the historical record set in 2025 [2] - The investment bank attributes this expected increase in gold prices to declining interest rates, changes in Fed leadership, and ongoing purchases by central banks and funds [2]

Core Insights - Traditional finance (TradFi) is rapidly adopting cryptocurrency, moving beyond mere speculation to practical applications in the financial system [2][5][6] Group 1: Major Announcements - JPMorgan is launching JPM Coin on the Canton Network, expanding its blockchain-based settlement system [6] - Barclays has invested in Ubyx, a startup that enables banks and payment firms to settle transactions using stablecoins [6] - Morgan Stanley has filed with the SEC for an Ethereum Trust (ETH ETF), adding Ethereum exposure alongside Bitcoin and Solana [6] - Wyoming has confirmed the launch of its state-backed stablecoin, FRNT, on Solana, showcasing government involvement in crypto infrastructure [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Major cryptocurrencies fell by 2-3% on the day, with Bitcoin dropping below $90,000 [5] - ZEC experienced a significant decline of 19% following the resignation of its developer team [5] Group 3: Trends and Implications - The current focus is on stablecoins and their role in transaction settlement rather than speculative use cases [7] - Ethereum and Solana are emerging as institutional infrastructures rather than just platforms for retail trading [7] - TradFi institutions are seeking to enhance their existing systems rather than being replaced by crypto technologies [8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan expects interest rates to be cut by approximately 150 basis points by 2026, potentially creating around one million jobs without triggering inflation [1] - Milan believes that the current policy is not neutral and that the U.S. economy is still significantly above neutral levels [1] - The U.S. labor market is anticipated to show a modest increase in non-farm payrolls, with a forecast of 73,000 new jobs in December 2025, up from 64,000 in November 2025, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [1] Group 2 - On January 8, both gold and silver prices experienced declines, with silver dropping nearly 5% to $74.629 per ounce and gold falling over 1% to $4410.25 per ounce [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will rise to $4800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, surpassing the historical record set in 2025, driven by declining interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and continued buying by central banks and funds [5]

Core Insights - Bullish forecasts for Bitcoin are gaining momentum as Morgan Stanley files to launch crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), coinciding with increased investor inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs [1][2] - Prominent investors, including Mike Alfred, predict Bitcoin could reach as high as $315,000, reflecting a wave of optimism in the market [1][4] Group 1: Morgan Stanley's Move - Morgan Stanley has filed with U.S. regulators to launch Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, marking a significant step by a major U.S. bank into the crypto market [2][5] - The filings indicate a broader shift among traditional financial institutions towards digital assets, with Morgan Stanley expanding crypto access to all clients [3][5] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Mike Alfred, a long-time Bitcoin investor, has made aggressive price predictions, suggesting Bitcoin could exceed $180,000 in the near term and potentially reach $315,000 [4][6] - Alfred's bullish stance is part of a larger trend of optimistic Bitcoin forecasts from various prominent figures in the investment landscape [9] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - Recent regulatory developments, such as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency allowing U.S. banks to act as intermediaries in crypto transactions, have accelerated the adoption of digital assets [3]