Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,027, up 1.76% with a year-to-date increase of 5.45% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.34% to 5,417, but is down 1.78% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.41% to 4,123, with a year-to-date rise of 3.89% [4] - The Dow Jones Index reached a new high, closing at 50,135, up 0.04% year-to-date [4] Currency Trends - The Renminbi Index is at 98.340, up 0.36% over the last month and 1.44% over the last six months [2] - The Euro to USD exchange rate is at 1.187, increasing by 1.98% in one month and 2.17% in six months [2] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil is priced at $67.63 per barrel, up 7.71% in one month and 4.01% in six months [3] - Gold is priced at $5,022.91 per ounce, with an increase of 11.38% in one month and 50.27% in six months [3] - Silver has seen a significant rise of 117.60% over the last six months, currently priced at $81.85 per ounce [3] Company Financials - Hong Kong Telecom (06823) reported a 4% increase in EBITDA for the year ending December 31, 2025, with total revenue rising by 5% to HKD 36.553 billion [9] - The number of 5G plan users in Hong Kong Telecom's postpaid customer base exceeded 2 million, representing 60% of the total postpaid customers [10] - Local data service revenue grew by 6% to HKD 14.31 billion, contributing to a 3% increase in overall local telecom service revenue [10] Mortgage Insurance Trends - In January, new mortgage insurance applications in Hong Kong fell by 8.7% to 460 cases, the lowest since November 2018 [11] - The total amount of new mortgage insurance also decreased by 7.1% to HKD 2.36 billion [11] - The usage ratio of mortgage insurance has dropped to 12.1%, the lowest level since November 2019 [12] Economic Indicators - The New York Federal Reserve reported a decrease in one-year inflation expectations to 3.1% in January, down from 3.4% in December [13][14] - The Federal Reserve's outlook on the U.S. fiscal situation and economic growth remains optimistic, with expectations of a significant GDP growth boost due to tax policy changes [15]

来源：格隆汇APP Hawtin还指出，人工智能竞赛中一个关键因素可能决定胜负：专有数据。"数据的所有权将绝对决定谁 能最终胜出。"并以谷歌母公司Alphabet去年的强劲表现为例。Hawtin表示，尽管Alphabet去年起初表现 不佳，但最终仍成为"科技七巨头"中表现最好的公司，全年涨幅达65%，而"这主要归功于其庞大的专 有数据集"。 格隆汇2月11日｜"科技七巨头"——苹果、微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta、特斯拉和英伟达——不断 增长的资本支出，预示着投资者面临的风险增加，并可能成为这些主导公司最终跑输大盘的催化剂。这 是英国基金管理公司Liontrust全球股票主管Hawtin的最新观点。他指出，最近财报中宣布的激进支出计 划是那些寻求可靠回报的股东们最关心的问题。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the AI networking sector, particularly the advancements in CPO (Coherent Passive Optical) technology and its implications for data centers and optical interconnects [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **CPO Technology Developments**: - Coherent has secured a significant order from a leading AI data center client for its CPO system, with initial revenue expected to start in Q4 2026 and become more substantial in 2027 [1]. - Lumentum has also received commitments worth hundreds of millions for Scale-out CPO CWLasers, with mass production contributions anticipated to begin in H1 2027 [1]. 2. **Market Projections**: - It is estimated that laser suppliers like LITE and COHR will have a combined order value of $400 million in 2027, leading to the shipment of approximately 80,000 Scale-out CPO switches that year [1]. - Nvidia is expected to accelerate the rollout of Scale-out CPO switches, with projected shipments of 2,000 units in 2025, 20,000 in 2026, and 80,000 in 2027 [2]. 3. **Nvidia's Product Launches**: - Nvidia plans to launch its Quantum-X Scale-out CPO switch in H2 2025 and Spectrum-X in H2 2026, with the first generation featuring a pluggable architecture [2]. - The new generation CPO switch is anticipated to have significant improvements in thermal performance and bandwidth, with production ramping up in Q2 2026 [2]. 4. **Long-term Opportunities**: - Lumentum highlighted that as copper interconnects approach their limits, optical Scale-up presents a long-term structural opportunity starting from late 2027 [3]. - Nvidia is expected to introduce CPO/NPO technology within its NVL576 architecture for Scale-up interconnects, indicating a competitive landscape between CPO and NPO technologies [3]. 5. **Beneficiary Companies**: - Key beneficiaries identified include FAU, CWLaser, ELSFP modules, and Shuffle components suppliers [4]. - Lumentum is viewed positively due to the upward demand for CWLasers, while the impact on Coherent is considered neutral [4]. - Browave is expected to benefit significantly due to its 50% market share in the CPO Shuttle Box sector, with production ramping up in Q2 2026 [4]. Additional Important Insights - The competition between CPO and NPO technologies is expected to continue, with both solutions sharing the same suppliers, indicating a complex supply chain dynamic [3]. - The overall market for Scale-up CPO is seen as a pure incremental opportunity for the optical interconnect supply chain, aimed at replacing copper interconnects without affecting Scale-out solutions [3].

Company and Industry Summary Company: Ta Liang Key Points - **Upgrade of Communication Protocol**: The upcoming NVIDIA Rubin platform will feature an upgraded communication protocol between GPU and NVSwitch, utilizing 224GSerDes on PCB with a significant signal frequency increase to a maximum of 56GHz, compared to 28GHz on the Blackwell platform. This upgrade indicates that even minor via stubs can lead to severe signal degradation, establishing a ±2mil stub height as the threshold for signal transmission quality. Accurate closed-loop measurement is deemed crucial for manufacturing quality control [1][1][1] - **StubMapper Device**: Ta Liang has developed a proprietary device called StubMapper, which enables ±2mil depth measurement to guide subsequent back-drilling processes executed by Ta Liang's 6-axis CCD drilling machine. StubMapper can provide profile measurement data back to the back-drilling machine, enhancing precision in manufacturing [1][1][1] - **Increased Demand for Back-Drilling**: There has been a surge in industry demand for back-drilling to meet the requirements of high-end AI PCBs, resulting in an extension of PCB equipment delivery cycles from 1.5 months to over 3 months. This demand has led Ta Liang to consider outsourcing more low-end drilling tool production to focus on high-end tool manufacturing [2][2][2] - **Production Capacity and Future Plans**: Ta Liang's current monthly production capacity is approximately 300 sets of drilling tools. The company plans to enhance the throughput of StubMapper by introducing a four-probe version, with mass production scheduled for March 2026, and initial customer reservations already in place [2][2][2] - **Semiconductor Equipment Division**: Ta Liang also operates a semiconductor equipment division focused on measurement and automated optical inspection (AOI), offering 7 types of inspection equipment used in processes such as HBM incoming material and flip-chip bonding. This division has received certification from a leading foundry for CoWoS and SoIC platforms, with CoWoS-related revenue accounting for approximately 75% of its semiconductor equipment business [2][2][2] - **Milestone Achievement**: The certification from the leading foundry is considered a key milestone for Ta Liang, facilitating smoother entry into the OSAT supply chain as OSAT manufacturers expand their 2.5D capacity [2][2][2]

Core Insights - The International Solid-State Circuits Conference (ISSCC) will take place from February 15 to 19, 2026, in San Francisco, showcasing significant advancements in semiconductor technology [2] Group 1: AI Chips - AMD's latest AI GPU, Instinct MI350, features a CDNA4 architecture with a theoretical peak performance increase of 1.9 times compared to its predecessor, and improvements in HBM input/output bandwidth and memory capacity by 1.5 times [2] - Rebellions has developed a large-scale AI inference subsystem using UCIe protocol, achieving a performance of 56.8 TPS on the Llama 3.3 model with 700 billion parameters [3] - IBM's AI accelerator, Spyre, is optimized for inference, boasting a throughput 32% higher than the latest GPUs and energy efficiency 2 to 3 times better [3] - MediaTek's MADiC, a generative diffusion accelerator, achieves performance of 7.4 TOPS/mm² and 17.4 TOPS/W, designed for generative image editing on edge devices [4] - NVIDIA's ALPhA-Vision real-time image processor has a face detection latency of 787 microseconds and an accuracy rate of 99.3% [5] Group 2: Memory Technologies - SanDisk and Kioxia have developed a 3D NAND flash memory with a density of 37.6 Gbit/mm², capable of reaching a storage capacity of 2 Tbit and a write speed of 85 MB/s [6] - Samsung is set to release a DRAM module with a capacity of 36GB and a data transfer rate of up to 3.3 TB/s, utilizing 12 chips stacked together [7] - SK Hynix has developed a 16Gbit LPDDR6 SDRAM with a data transfer rate of 14.4 Gbps per I/O pin [7] - Samsung will also introduce a 16Gbit LPDDR6 SDRAM with a data transfer rate of 12.8 Gbps [8] - SK Hynix's 24Gbit GDDR7 DRAM targets mid-range AI inference applications with a data transfer rate of 48 Gbps [8] Group 3: Image Sensors - STMicroelectronics will showcase a lidar receiver with a field of view of 54°×42° and a power consumption of 153 mW [9] - Sony Semiconductor Solutions has developed a Ge-on-Si SPAD sensor array designed for low-power AR/VR applications, with a power consumption of 26 mW at 30 fps [10] - SmartSens Technology's CMOS image sensor features 200 million pixels and supports 8K video recording at 60 fps [11] Group 4: AI Chip Presentations - NVIDIA will present its GB10 processor for desktop AI supercomputers, featuring 20 Armv9.2 cores and a performance of 31 TFLOPS in FP32 mode [12] - STMicroelectronics will discuss the STM32N6 microcontroller series, integrating an Arm Cortex-M55 CPU and a Neural-ART NPU with performance of 600 GOPS and 3 TOPS/W [13] - Microsoft will explain its AI accelerator architecture, MAIA, focusing on packaging technology and power management [13]

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 如果感觉如今科技领域的一切都与人工智能息息相关，那是因为事实的确如此。而计算机内存市场更 是如此。用于为人工智能数据中心中的GPU和其他加速器供电的DRAM内存需求巨大，利润丰厚，以 至于挤占了其他用途的内存供应，导致价格飙升。据Counterpoint Research的数据显示，本季度 DRAM价格已上涨80%至90%。 最大的人工智能硬件公司表示，他们已经确保了芯片供应到 2028 年，但这让其他所有人——个人电 脑制造商、消费电子产品制造商以及其他所有需要临时存储十亿比特数据的设备制造商——都不得不 争先恐后地应对供应短缺和价格上涨的问题。 电子行业是如何陷入如今这般困境的？更重要的是，它又该如何摆脱困境？IEEE Spectrum采访了经 济学家和存储器专家，请他们对此进行解释。他们认为，如今的局面是 DRAM 行业历史上长期存在 的繁荣与衰退周期，以及规模空前的 AI 硬件基础设施建设相互碰撞的结果。而且，除非 AI 领域出 现重大崩盘，否则新增产能和新技术需要数年时间才能使供应与需求相匹配。即便如此，价格也可能 依然居高不下。 要了解事情的来龙去脉 ...

Investment Rating - The technology hardware and equipment industry is rated as stable for 2025 and 2026 [1] Core Insights - The technology hardware and equipment industry is experiencing a slow recovery driven by inventory replenishment cycles and AI technology, despite overall pressure from weak global economic growth since 2025. There is significant differentiation among sub-industries, with strong demand for data center equipment driven by computing power, while traditional telecom equipment shows sluggish growth [2][3] - The Chinese government has established a policy framework to support the industry, focusing on short-term growth stabilization, medium-term supply chain strengthening, and long-term innovation promotion, primarily through domestic substitution to overcome high-end equipment and material bottlenecks [2] - The industry is expected to benefit from the deepening of digital China initiatives and the industrialization of cutting-edge technologies like AI, entering a structurally growth-driven cycle. However, geopolitical disturbances and rapid technological iterations may lead to uneven recovery across the industry [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electronic information manufacturing industry is closely tied to global economic conditions, showing signs of recovery since 2024 due to inventory replenishment and AI-driven demand. It is a core industry in China's economic structure transformation and upgrade [7][8] - In 2024, the added value of China's electronic information manufacturing industry grew by 11.8%, outperforming overall industrial and high-tech manufacturing growth rates [8] Financial Performance - Sample companies in the technology hardware and equipment industry reported positive revenue growth year-on-year in 2025, aligning with industry recovery trends. However, high R&D investments and asset impairment losses have pressured net profits, while EBITDA showed year-on-year growth, indicating profit resilience [3] - The debt scale and liability ratios of sample companies have increased, with a decline in the EBITDA coverage ratio for rigid debt, although interest coverage has improved due to lower financing costs [3] Sub-Industry Insights Communication Equipment - The communication equipment sector is experiencing growth opportunities driven by AI and industrial interconnectivity, with significant demand for data center equipment but slow growth in traditional telecom network equipment. The market is highly competitive and concentrated [24][27] - The deployment of high-speed optical modules and data center switches is expected to grow significantly, while traditional telecom equipment investments are declining as operators shift focus to computing power networks [28] Computers and Peripheral Devices - The global PC and server markets are stable, with Chinese manufacturers gaining market share due to domestic substitution. The AI PC segment is becoming a core growth driver, with AI PC shipments expected to increase significantly [37][38] - The global server market is experiencing robust growth driven by AI computing demand, with significant revenue increases expected in the coming years [42] Electronic Devices, Instruments, and Components - The electronic devices, instruments, and components sector is seeing overall recovery driven by AI innovation and domestic supply chain localization. Key areas of growth include computing power chips and advanced packaging [48][49] - The semiconductor industry is entering an upward trend, with significant sales growth expected in both global and Chinese markets [56]

从英伟达离职，回到中国创业，又反向杀入黄仁勋的腹地，没有投资人不喜欢这样的故事。 典型代表是摩尔线程创始人张建中，他曾任英伟达全球副总裁、大中华区总经理，在2020年创立摩尔线程，也被称作"中国版英伟达"。2025年12月，摩尔 线程登陆科创板，市值一度超过3000亿元。 另一个代表是群核科技创始人黄晓煌。在美国攻读硕士研究生期间，黄晓煌曾加入英伟达任软件工程师，参与了CUDA开发。2011年，他从硅谷回到杭 州，与同学创立群核科技，其打造的"酷家乐"是中国最大的空间设计平台。但群核科技IPO的故事，要更为曲折。 2021年4月，群核科技在纳斯达克申请上市。那时候，一起排队的中国公司有30多家。但到了下半年，风云突变，群核也无奈撤回申请。 到了2025年2月，群核科技向港交所递表，摩根大通、建银国际为联席保荐人，又正值"杭州六小龙"声名鹊起。结果6个月内，申请未获批，招股书失效。 2025年8月22日，群核再次向港交所提交上市申请，目前仍在排队中。 云启资本创始管理合伙人毛丞宇在IDG时，主导了群核的第一轮机构投资，后来又持续加注。"杭州六小龙"火了之后，有一次他跟黄晓煌感叹，"运气和 命运还是蛮奇妙的。如果 ...

大家早上壕！ 先看海外要闻： 重磅就业报告公布前AI担忧重燃，标普纳指回落，但道指三日连创新高；收盘标普500跌0.33%，道指涨0.10%，纳指跌0.59%。 新AI工具引发行业前景忧虑，财富管理类股暴跌，嘉信理财收跌超7%；"科技七巨头"中，特斯拉涨近2%独涨、谷歌跌近2%领跌；存储芯片股大 幅回落，闪迪跌超7%。 纳斯达克金龙中国指数收涨0.87%，九紫新能收涨将近90%，禾赛、再鼎医药涨超6%。 美国零售数据逊色，美债价格加速上涨、收益率降幅扩大，十年期美债收益率创近一个月新低，美元指数盘中跌幅扩大、再创逾一周新低。 今日券商策略前瞻： 方正证券指出，技术面来看，沪指收出一根缩量小阳线，指数在4110点（20日均线）附近获得支撑，但上方4130-4140点区域构成短期压力。目 前指数处于上有压力、下有支撑的箱体震荡区间。成交额近期显示交投活跃度一般，资金观望情绪浓厚。节前资金观望情绪浓厚，春季行情继续 向节后演绎，没有只涨不退的潮水，4100点反复夯实为后续行情打下基础。 今日题材方面： 离岸人民币又创将近三年新高，近三年来首次盘中涨破6.91；比特币盘中跌破6.8万美元、较日高跌近4%。 金银铜和原 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones reached a new intraday high of 50512.79 points, closing up 52.27 points or 0.10% at 50188.14 points, while the Nasdaq fell 136.20 points or 0.59% to 23102.47 points, and the S&P 500 dropped 23.01 points or 0.33% to 6941.81 points [1] - The latest retail sales report indicated that consumer spending in December remained flat, below economists' expectations of a 0.4% monthly increase, following a 0.6% increase in November [5] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin fell below $70,000, down over 2% to $68,698, while Ethereum dropped 4.5% to $2,010 [3] Commodities - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 0.6% to $63.96 per barrel, and Brent crude oil fell by 0.4% to $68.80 per barrel [4] Retail Sales - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in December, indicating cautious consumer spending as the holiday season concluded, with 8 out of 13 retail categories showing declines [5] Loan Default Rates - The U.S. loan default rate surged to 4.8%, the highest level since 2017, driven by increased defaults among low-income and young borrowers [6] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials expressed cautious optimism regarding current interest rates, indicating no urgent need for rate adjustments while acknowledging persistent inflation risks [7][8] Corporate Developments - Boeing plans to increase the monthly production of its 737 aircraft to 63 units within the next few years, which is crucial for improving its financial situation [11] - Stellantis is seeking to exit its joint battery venture with Samsung in the U.S., amid efforts to reduce electric vehicle investments and preserve cash [12] Stock Ratings - Morgan Stanley maintains a neutral rating on Tesla with a target price of $415 [13] - Deutsche Bank raised Micron Technology's target price from $300 to $500 [14]