Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for momentum i ...

当AI（人工智能）浪潮席卷全球、科技巨头纷纷投身其中，将之视为下一个增长神话之时，电商领域 的"黑马"拼多多却显得格外冷静。 所谓"分布式AI"，指的是将人工智能能力分散至多个节点或终端，通过去中心化的智能代理网络实现协 同决策与任务执行，而非依赖于单一、集中式的AI"超级大脑"。 对于这一理念在拼多多上的应用，黄峥曾在拼多多2018年招股说明书所附的《致股东信》中明确提 出："如果我们闭上眼睛畅想下一阶段的拼多多，它可以被理解为一个融合虚拟空间与现实世界的多维 场景。它将不是由集中式超级大脑型AI系统驱动，而是依托分布式智能代理网络运作，兼具Costco（开 市客）的高性价比与迪士尼的娱乐体验。" 作为本科就读于浙江大学竺可桢学院计算机专业，后又赴威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校取得计算机硕士学位 的创始人，黄峥为拼多多注入了深厚的技术基因。 在2018年第三季度财报电话会中，他曾明确表示："公司将持续大幅增加技术投入，运用基于分布式人 工智能架构的深度学习模型，持续提升产品及推广推荐的精准度。目前，拼多多正和世界各地科研机构 合作，以提升公司在分布式人工智能领域的技术能力，我本人将直接领导相关工作。"据当时财报，该 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo remains relatively quiet about its AI strategy amidst the global AI wave, yet it is subtly adjusting its approach and accelerating talent acquisition in AI-related fields [1][2][3] Group 1: AI Strategy and Talent Acquisition - Pinduoduo has not publicly articulated its AI strategy, with the term "AI" absent from its latest financial disclosures [1] - Since August, Pinduoduo has been actively recruiting for various AI-related positions, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive AI strategy [1][6] - The company has reportedly formed a team focused on e-commerce recommendation models, although it has not confirmed this publicly [2] Group 2: Research and Development Investment - Pinduoduo's R&D spending has been increasing, with Q1 2025 expenditures reaching 3.58 billion yuan, up from 2.91 billion yuan in the same period last year [5] - Despite the increase, Pinduoduo's R&D expenses remain below 4% of its revenue, reflecting a cautious and differentiated investment strategy compared to competitors like Alibaba and Tencent [5] - The founder, Huang Zheng, previously emphasized a "distributed AI" approach, which focuses on decentralized AI capabilities rather than a centralized system [3][4] Group 3: Business Operations and AI Integration - Pinduoduo's AI applications are deeply integrated into its e-commerce operations, with significant automation in processes such as product listing and dispute resolution [8][9] - The company has achieved a high level of operational efficiency, with reports indicating that AI handles over 90% of certain business processes [8][10] - Pinduoduo's approach contrasts with competitors who are focusing on general-purpose AI models, as Pinduoduo's AI strategy is specifically tailored to enhance its e-commerce platform [6][8]

Group 1 - The "2025 Global Agricultural Innovation Competition" showcased innovative agricultural technology solutions from teams with an average age under 30, redefining agricultural production possibilities [1] - The event attracted 519 digital agriculture solutions from 97 countries, with 12 projects reaching the finals, several of which have already demonstrated significant benefits in real-world applications [1] Group 2 - The "AI Pig Farming" team developed an AI model trained on over 200,000 sound data points from pigs, achieving a 7-day early warning for respiratory diseases, increasing management efficiency and reducing inspection costs by 40% [3] - The SafeSip team from Tanzania created a solar-powered low-cost water purification system, reducing the incidence of infectious diseases in poultry by 67% and mortality rates by 58%, with a payback period of 4.5 months [3] Group 3 - The PlantPulse Patch team introduced a nanosensor technology that can predict tomato late blight 2-3 days in advance, potentially reducing global plant disease losses by over $100 billion annually [5] - The "Hanhai Miracle" project from a Chinese team developed bio-based composite materials that can convert sandy soil into arable land within 30 days, enabling two people to manage 1,000 acres of farmland [5] Group 4 - The agricultural technology market shows immense potential, with annual post-harvest losses in Africa amounting to $6 billion and plant disease impacts in the U.S. exceeding $10 billion [6] - Pinduoduo's Vice President highlighted the company's commitment to agriculture as a core strategy, having hosted the competition for five consecutive years and investing in agricultural innovation through substantial financial support [6]

Group 1 - Bilibili increased by 5% [1] - Baidu rose by 2% [1] - Li Auto and Tencent Music both saw a rise of 0.9% [1] - Trip.com increased by 0.8% [1] - Pinduoduo grew by 0.5% [1] - JD.com experienced a rise of 0.4% [1] - NIO declined by 3% [1]

Group 1 - The majority of Chinese concept stocks in the US pre-market are rising, with Bilibili up by 5% [1] - Baidu has increased by 2%, while Li Auto and Tencent Music are both up by 0.9% [1] - Trip.com is up by 0.8%, Pinduoduo by 0.5%, and JD.com by 0.4%, whereas NIO has decreased by 3% [1]

Summary of Key Points from China Internet Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Internet sector**, highlighting the performance of major companies during the 2Q results season and key investor debates regarding future trends and strategies [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **2Q Performance**: China Internet companies reported healthy growth with top-line revenue and profits increasing by **14%** and **10%** year-over-year, excluding transaction platforms [1]. 2. **AI and Cloud Growth**: Significant acceleration in AI cloud hyperscaler revenue growth and capital expenditures was noted, with Tencent's fintech business showing positive inflection and Alibaba focusing on improving quick commerce unit economics [1][2]. 3. **Food Delivery and Quick Commerce**: - The competition in food delivery and quick commerce is expected to lead to a long-term market share distribution of **5:4:1** among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD [9]. - Estimated declines in adjusted EBIT for Meituan, Alibaba, and JD for the September quarter are **Rmb-27 billion**, **Rmb-31 billion**, and **Rmb-13 billion** respectively, with Alibaba and JD expected to see EBIT declines of **-53%** and **-97%** year-over-year [2][9]. 4. **AI Applications**: The outperformance of AI applications is attributed to quantifiable revenue growth, with Alibaba Cloud's capital expenditures increasing by **57%** quarter-over-quarter [11]. 5. **Stock Picking Strategy**: A two-pronged approach is recommended for stock picking, focusing on defensive sectors like games and mobility, alongside offensive sectors such as AI beneficiaries and PDD [11]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Size Projections**: The total addressable market (TAM) for quick commerce is projected to increase to **Rmb2.2 trillion** by 2030, up from a previous estimate of **Rmb1.5 trillion**, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of **25%** [10][32]. 2. **E-commerce Growth**: Traditional e-commerce platforms like Taobao-Tmall are experiencing slower growth compared to competitors, with JD and PDD showing higher growth rates of **20%+** and **teen percentages** respectively [10]. 3. **Investor Sentiment**: There is ongoing debate among investors regarding whether Alibaba should focus more on defending its traditional e-commerce market share rather than investing in quick commerce [10]. 4. **Future Outlook**: The aggregate profit pool for the China Internet sector is expected to decline further in 3Q25E, primarily due to challenges in e-commerce and local services [11]. Key Stock Ideas - **Games**: Tencent and NetEase - **Mobility**: DiDi and Full Truck Alliance - **Cloud & Data Centers**: Alibaba, GDS, and VNET - **E-commerce**: PDD [1][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [4] Core Insights - The company reported a 7% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q2 2025, reaching 1,039.8 billion yuan, with marketing services revenue growing by 13% to 557 billion yuan and transaction services revenue increasing by 0.7% to 483 billion yuan. The revenue growth rate is slowing due to intensified competition and external uncertainties [1][2] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 327 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year decline, with a net profit margin of 31.5%. The profit exceeded expectations mainly due to a decrease in marketing expenses and a recovery in interest and investment income [1][2] - The company is focusing on strengthening its supply chain and supporting new quality merchants, which is expected to benefit long-term platform health and competitiveness [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 4,498 billion yuan, 5,239 billion yuan, and 5,976 billion yuan respectively, up from previous estimates of 4,402 billion yuan, 5,056 billion yuan, and 5,774 billion yuan [3] - The projected Non-GAAP net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are now estimated at 1,178 billion yuan, 1,477 billion yuan, and 1,772 billion yuan, compared to earlier forecasts of 1,048 billion yuan, 1,327 billion yuan, and 1,555 billion yuan [3] Global Expansion and Business Development - The company's global expansion through TEMU is progressing steadily, with expectations of increased market penetration and a focus on compliance to ensure long-term healthy development of overseas operations [3]

Summary of China Internet Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The China Internet sector has shown strong performance in YTD 2025, with a return of +44.8%, outperforming other regions such as SEA (+24.7%), Japan (+21.9%), and the US (+19.2%) [1] - Despite some recovery in valuation multiples, many Internet companies still trade at a discount compared to global peers and other tech/consumer names in China [1] Key Companies and Performance - **Alibaba (BABA)** and **Tencent** are highlighted as core AI plays, demonstrating positive multiplier effects from AI-enhanced growth [1] - **Pinduoduo (PDD)** is noted as a high beta long opportunity, while **Trip.com (TCOM)** and **Full Truck Alliance (YMM)** are also mentioned as potential picks [1] - In the 2Q25 results, 22 out of 49 covered internet companies reported revenue beats, while 25 reported earnings beats [2][10] AI and Monetization - AI is expected to enhance monetization opportunities across advertising, gaming, and transaction conversion, leading to revenue and profit growth in upcoming quarters [3][38] - Initial signs of AI-enhanced ad targeting and game development were observed in 2Q25, boosting investor confidence in future monetization potential [3][38] Quick Commerce Insights - Incremental sales and marketing spending from major players like Alibaba, JD, and Meituan in 2Q25 reached RMB 40-50 billion, indicating a competitive landscape in quick commerce [4] - Quick commerce is projected to capture approximately 10% to low-teen percentages of the e-commerce market in the long run [4] Investment Sentiment and Risks - Investor focus is expected to shift back to companies with strong AI narratives in 2H25, with fund flows rotating from leisure/entertainment names to cloud infrastructure and advertising companies [5] - Risks include muted stimulus policies affecting consumption, persistent tariff uncertainties, and intense competition impacting platform profitability [6] Notable Earnings and Guidance - Meituan's significant profit miss was a notable surprise, while PDD and TCOM exceeded expectations [15] - The overall sentiment on AI-enhanced monetization from Tencent and growing demand from Alibaba positively influenced the investment outlook for large internet companies [15] Share Price Performance - Year-to-date, Alibaba leads with a 59% return, followed by Tencent at 45%, while Meituan underperformed with a -32% return [17] - The divergence in share price performance between Meituan and TCOM began in June, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [19] Valuation and Recommendations - Current P/E ratios for major companies indicate that Tencent (18.7x) and Alibaba (13.9x) are trading below average, suggesting potential for re-rating [30] - Top picks for 2H25 include Tencent and Alibaba as core AI plays, PDD as a high beta long, and Century Huatong as an A-share pick [31][34] Cloud and AI Updates - Alibaba Cloud reported revenues of RMB 33.4 billion in 2Q25, with AI-related revenue maintaining triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters [39] - Tencent Cloud's revenues grew significantly, driven by cloud services and improved efficiency [39] - Baidu AI Cloud also showed strong growth, with revenues increasing 27% year-over-year in 2Q25 [39] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments from the conference call regarding the China Internet sector, highlighting performance, investment opportunities, and risks.

Core Insights - PDD Holdings has reported 2Q25 results with no significant surprises in business performance, but there are concerns regarding the company's management of excess cash [1] Financial Performance - The long-term growth thesis for PDD Holdings remains intact despite the current cash deployment issues [1]