Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD.US) with a target price of $100, indicating a potential downside of 3% from the current price of $102.98 [1][7][17]. Core Insights - The company's profit has significantly declined, with a 45% year-over-year drop in adjusted net profit for Q1 2025, falling short of market expectations by 39% [7]. - Revenue growth for Q1 2025 was 10%, which is below market expectations by 6%, marking a slowdown from the previous quarter's growth of 24% [7]. - The report highlights that the revenue from Temu, a key service, has also slowed, with a growth rate of only 6% in Q1 2025 compared to 33% in the previous quarter [7]. - Increased sales expenses have not translated into significant revenue growth, with sales expenses rising by 43% year-over-year, leading to a net profit margin decline to 17.7% [7]. - The report anticipates further challenges in overseas business due to unaccounted tariff impacts, suggesting a high level of uncertainty moving forward [7]. Financial Projections - The projected revenue for FY25 is adjusted to RMB 428.2 billion, with an expected adjusted net profit of RMB 79.8 billion [2][8]. - The adjusted target P/E ratio for FY25 is set at 13x, with future projections indicating a decrease to 7.5x in FY26 and 6.5x in FY27 [2][8]. - The report outlines a significant increase in sales expenses, which are expected to continue impacting profit margins negatively [7]. Market Expectations - The market's price expectations for Pinduoduo range from $85 to $180, with the current target price set at $100 [3][7]. - The report indicates that the company lacks short-term catalysts for growth, contributing to the decision to maintain the "Hold" rating [7].

访问36氪出海网站letschuhai.com，获取更多全球商业相关资讯。 近日，美团、小米、快手、拼多多等多家头部公司发布一季度财报。 在出海领域，这几家公司同样也走在前列，横跨即时配送、智能硬件、AI、跨境电商等出海重点领域，其业绩表现与策略也反应了相关行业的最新变化与 趋势。 美团：海外，另一个百亿战场 | 指标 | | 2025年Q1 2024年Q1 同比变化 | 2024年Q4 环比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新业务收入 | 222亿元 | 187亿元 19.20% | 229亿元 | -3.00% | | 新业务经营亏损 23亿元 | | 28亿元 | 收窄17.5% 22亿元 | 亏损扩大4.5% | | 经营亏损率 | 10.20% | 14.80% 改善4.6% | 9.50% | 增加0.7% | 智能手机出货量由2024年第四季度的42.7百万部减少2.0%至2025年第一季度的41.8百万部，主要由于印度等境外市场需求疲软导致出货量减少，但部分被中 国大陆出货量增加所抵消。 新兴市场中，非洲正成为手机品牌的争夺焦点之一，小米等品牌对 ...

5月27日，拼多多发布的2025年第一季度财报，公司一季度总营收为956.722亿元，同比增长10%，但低 于市场预期的1016亿元。归属于普通股股东的净利润为147.418亿元，同比下降47%；非美国通用会计 准则下净利润为169.16亿元，同比下降45%。 从收入结构来看，拼多多高毛利的数字广告收入——在线营销服务及其他服务营收487.22亿元，同比增 长15%；而交易服务营收469.55亿元，同比增长6%，预期542.31亿元，表明交易量增长有所放缓。 具体来看，销售营销费用从234.11亿元激增43%至334.03亿元，这是利润下滑的主要推手，主要反映的 是竞争环境的加剧和获客成本的大幅上升。同时，一季度拼多多的运营成本也同比上升25%，主要来自 履约和支付处理费用的增加，进一步压缩了利润空间。 业绩一经发布后，盘前股价最高跌幅超过20%，最终收跌接近14%。 陈磊认为，当下的市场在加速变化，平台要敢于牺牲短期业绩，助力商家度过短期波动。 陈磊强调，无论政策如何变化，都会持续加强本地化业务运营，帮助更多的当地商家在平台上成长，实 现更多的订单本地发货。陈磊还表示，在高质量发展，合规经营的前提下，拼多多 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price adjusted from $165 to $135, indicating a potential upside of 31.1% from the current price of $102.98 [2][3][12]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue and gross profit impacted by tariff uncertainties affecting TEMU and rising short-term logistics costs. The mainland e-commerce advertising revenue growth met expectations, but net profit was below forecasts due to increased subsidies in response to national policies [3][7]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on profits in Q2 2025 due to these factors, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts by 9% and 25% respectively for 2025 [3][4]. - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for a return to normalized profit levels by 2026, supported by strategic adjustments and merchant support plans [3][4]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised to RMB 449.83 billion, down from RMB 496.41 billion, reflecting a 9.4% decrease. For 2026 and 2027, revenue is expected to be RMB 556.01 billion and RMB 630.39 billion, respectively [4][15]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 104.83 billion, a 25.4% decrease from previous estimates, with further declines expected in 2026 and 2027 [4][15]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to decline from 28.5% in 2024 to 24.6% in 2025, with a gradual recovery anticipated thereafter [4][15]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights a significant drop in adjusted net profit for Q1 2025, which fell 45% year-on-year to RMB 16.92 billion, significantly below consensus estimates [7][8]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 57%, down from 62% in the previous quarter, indicating pressure on profitability [8][9]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately $143.36 billion, with a year-to-date change of 6.18% [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - Long-termism is becoming a prominent trend in the business and investment sectors, but few companies can consistently adhere to this principle over time [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - Pinduoduo has launched a "100 billion support" initiative, following its previous "100 billion reduction" campaign, demonstrating a commitment to substantial investment in the e-commerce sector [2][5] - The company’s Q1 revenue reached 957 billion yuan, with a growth rate declining to 10%, yet it continues to prioritize the "100 billion support" strategy despite external pressures [2][9] - Pinduoduo established a "Merchant Rights Protection Committee" to address the needs of merchants, particularly small and medium-sized businesses, and has implemented measures to enhance merchant services [3][5] Group 2: Financial Commitment - In Q1, Pinduoduo's marketing expenses surged to 334 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 100 billion yuan increase year-over-year, aimed at supporting merchants and consumers [9] - The company has introduced various consumer incentives, including a "100 billion merchant feedback plan" and significant subsidies across all product categories [7][9] Group 3: Long-term Vision - Pinduoduo remains focused on high-quality development within the e-commerce industry, resisting the temptation to chase fleeting market trends [8][10] - Despite facing short-term stock price volatility, the company's long-term strategy prioritizes the interests of users and merchants, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position over time [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's Q1 2025 financial report shows a revenue of approximately 95.7 billion RMB, marking a 10% year-on-year growth, the lowest in recent quarters, with a significant decline in operating profit by 38% [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue fell short of market expectations by about 6 billion RMB, and profits were nearly 9 billion RMB below forecasts, leading to a pre-market stock drop of over 20% and a final decline of nearly 14% [1] - Marketing expenses reached 33.4 billion RMB, an increase of nearly 10 billion RMB compared to the same period last year, driven by the launch of the "100 billion support" strategy [1][2] Strategic Initiatives - The "100 billion support" plan includes various measures to assist merchants, with a focus on reducing operational costs, which has impacted short-term revenue performance [2] - Pinduoduo's management emphasized that investments in merchant support are viewed as long-term investments rather than immediate expenses, aiming to enhance platform ecology over the next 5 to 10 years [2][4] Merchant Support Measures - The company has established a "Merchant Rights Protection Committee" to oversee resources and support for merchants, including regular communication and violation warning mechanisms [2] - Pinduoduo is expanding its support to small and medium-sized merchants and has introduced a "100 billion merchant feedback plan" to provide consumer coupons and subsidies across various product categories [3] Agricultural Support - The "2025 Duoduo Good Specialty" initiative is actively engaging with agricultural regions to enhance production and income for local farmers, with customized solutions for local specialties [3][4] - The company is also supporting the establishment of a technology center focused on "digital commerce + new farmer training" in Yunnan, marking a significant step in agricultural innovation [3] Long-term Vision - Despite short-term financial challenges due to substantial merchant support investments, this strategy is expected to create a more stable merchant ecosystem for future growth [4] - The company remains committed to high-quality development and supporting merchants through economic cycles, emphasizing a long-term growth path [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD) with a target price range of $113 to $134 per share [3][4]. Core Insights - Pinduoduo reported Q1 2025 revenue of 95.67 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 10%, but GAAP net profit decreased by 45% to 16.9 billion yuan due to increased merchant support and changes in overseas tariff policies [1][2]. - The company is implementing a 100 billion yuan support plan aimed at enhancing the merchant ecosystem, which is expected to pressure short-term profitability but is viewed as a long-term investment for sustainable growth [1][4]. - The impact of tariff policies has led to a temporary slowdown in the growth of TEMU, but the long-term outlook for global market expansion and profitability remains positive [1][4]. Financial Data Summary - Revenue projections for Pinduoduo are as follows: 2023 at 247.639 billion yuan, 2024 at 393.836 billion yuan, and 2025E at 455.799 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 90%, 59%, and 16% respectively [2][7]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 67.899 billion yuan in 2023, 122.344 billion yuan in 2024, and 112.979 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 72%, 80%, and a decline of 8% respectively [2][7]. - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio (Non-GAAP) of 14.9 for 2023, decreasing to 5.7 by 2027, suggesting a favorable valuation trend over the forecast period [2][7]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of -1.0%, a 6-month performance of +3.7%, and a 12-month performance of -34.6% [4]. - Relative performance indicates a decline of -4.8% over 1 month, -14.1% over 6 months, and -53.6% over 12 months compared to the market [4]. Shareholder Information - The total share capital is 567.859 million shares, with a market capitalization of $146.2 billion [3]. - The major shareholder, Huang Zheng, holds a 24.8% stake in the company [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 57%, a decrease of 5 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - The report highlights that the company is focusing on high-quality development strategies to foster a healthy merchant ecosystem, which is expected to support long-term sustainable growth [1][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to PDD Holdings with a 12-month sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) based target price of US$152, indicating an upside potential of 27.5% from the current price of US$119.24 [9][10]. Core Insights - PDD Holdings reported mixed results for 1Q25, with a 10% year-over-year increase in net revenues, but a significant 36% decline in adjusted EBIT. The online marketing revenue grew by 15% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [1][2]. - The negative market reaction, with a 17% drop in pre-market trading, was primarily due to a profit miss attributed to higher-than-expected Selling & Marketing expenses during a typically low season [1][2]. - The company is focusing on investments in its platform ecosystem to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), allowing them to compete effectively on pricing [1]. Revenue Performance - Online marketing revenue for 1Q25 was reported at RMB 48.722 million, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth, which was in line with Goldman Sachs estimates and above the Visible Alpha consensus [2][10]. - Transaction commission revenue grew by only 6% year-over-year, falling short of expectations due to a shift in Temu's business model and ongoing investments in the platform ecosystem [2][10]. Future Outlook - Key discussion points for the results call include Pinduoduo's growth drivers, the impact of ongoing investments, and the differentiation of Temu's revenue outlook amidst changing market conditions [3]. - The report highlights potential challenges such as geopolitical headwinds, increased competition, and the need for reinvestments to sustain growth, which may affect core profit margins [9].

Group 1 - Temu has achieved remarkable growth in 2025, surpassing local giants in Poland and Brazil, indicating the global adaptability of its "extreme cost-performance + viral marketing" model [1][3] - In Brazil, Temu's market share reached 9.9% with a significant increase in traffic, totaling 56 million visits in April and 39 million monthly active users, surpassing Shopee [3][4] - In Poland, Temu's user base grew to 18.1 million, exceeding Allegro's 17.8 million users, showcasing its competitive edge in the market [4] Group 2 - The growth strategy of Temu relies on viral marketing and social media advertising, leading to explosive growth in categories like home goods, tools, and electronics [5] - Despite having more active users than Amazon, Temu's average revenue per user (ARPU) is only one-third of Amazon's, indicating a need for refined operations as competition intensifies [8] - Regulatory tightening and increased competition suggest that a simple price war may not be sustainable for Temu in the long run [8] Group 3 - Easy ERP provides a comprehensive solution for Temu sellers, enhancing order fulfillment efficiency through a semi-managed model that synchronizes cross-border and local orders [9][11] - The inventory management feature of Easy ERP allows real-time visibility of stock across various warehouses, facilitating intelligent restocking based on sales forecasts [11] - Easy ERP also supports profit analysis by tracking costs and revenues for each order, which is crucial for maintaining supply chain efficiency under Temu's low-cost model [12]

Group 1 - Xiaomi reported a revenue of 111.29 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, with adjusted net profit reaching 10.68 billion yuan, up 64.5% [2] - Xiaomi's smartphone business generated 50.6 billion yuan in revenue, achieving a record high gross margin of 12.4%, with the SU7 series delivering 258,000 units since launch [2] - Pinduoduo's Q1 2025 revenue was 95.67 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth, but a 45% decline in net profit under non-GAAP standards, totaling 16.92 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - Deep Blue Automotive faced backlash from 480,000 car owners for advertising on their vehicle screens without consent, leading to an apology from the CEO [4] - Apple’s App Store was deemed non-compliant with EU regulations, particularly regarding its "anti-steering" policy that restricts developers from promoting alternative payment options [7] - Geely's chairman Li Shufu emphasized the company's commitment to not engage in price wars, focusing instead on value, technology, quality, service, brand, and corporate ethics [8]