Core Viewpoint - The company is actively combating counterfeit products globally, with significant efforts in customs interception and legal actions against infringers [1][3][4] Group 1: Customs Interception and Global Actions - From January to mid-August, customs in China intercepted a total of 1.83 million counterfeit products related to the company, involving 237 batches destined for 61 countries and regions [1] - The company has completed customs registration in 27 countries and regions to enhance global enforcement efficiency, with a total of 7.91 million counterfeit items intercepted globally [1] - In the Netherlands alone, over 260,000 counterfeit items were seized, highlighting the active role of European customs in enforcement [1] Group 2: Collaborative Efforts and Legal Actions - The company has conducted 36 joint anti-counterfeiting operations with the UK's Fair Trading Office and Trade Standards Office, covering 21 areas including Liverpool and Birmingham [3] - In the U.S., the company has engaged former FBI investigators to conduct street inspections, leading to criminal charges against five store operators [3] - The company is pursuing civil litigation against known infringers, including a lawsuit filed in California against a 7-Eleven store for selling counterfeit products [3][4] Group 3: Online Counterfeit Measures - The company has identified over 300 infringement links across various cross-border e-commerce platforms and is utilizing the "Schedule A" procedure to collectively sue multiple anonymous sellers [4] - The company emphasizes the importance of consumer support in the fight against counterfeiting, urging consumers to purchase products through official channels [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of counterfeit products, particularly in the online marketplace, poses a significant challenge to the global expansion of Pop Mart's brand, leading to increased efforts in combating infringement and protecting intellectual property rights [1][3]. Group 1: Counterfeit Product Issues - From January to mid-August this year, customs in China intercepted a total of 1.83 million counterfeit Pop Mart-related products across 237 batches, intended for 61 countries and regions [1]. - The total number of intercepted counterfeit products has reached 7.91 million, involving over 240 batches, with more than 260,000 counterfeit items seized in the Netherlands alone [1][3]. - Various counterfeit products, including "LAFUFU," have emerged in the market, characterized by distorted images, poor craftsmanship, and low quality [1]. Group 2: Legal Actions and Strategies - In July, Pop Mart applied for a "temporary injunction" from the Hague court in the Netherlands, which was quickly approved, allowing for immediate action against the retail giant Jumbo [3]. - Pop Mart has collected over 300 links to infringing products across multiple cross-border e-commerce platforms and can utilize the "Schedule A" procedure to collectively sue multiple anonymous sellers [3]. Group 3: Consumer Awareness and Anti-Counterfeiting Measures - Consumers can identify genuine products through three main indicators: the verification count of the anti-counterfeit label, the presence of Pop Mart's exclusive anti-counterfeit sticker on the packaging, and the logo stamp on the product's bottom [4]. - The company has also registered the "Lafufu" trademark in July, classified under fitness equipment, as a proactive measure to combat infringement [3].

Core Insights - In 2025, certain brands like "Weilong Delicious," "Dongpeng Beverage," and "Pop Mart" are thriving in a rational consumer market, reflecting a shift in consumer psychology towards instant gratification and health-conscious choices [1][3][4] Group 1: Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage achieved a record revenue of 10.737 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a 36.37% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% [3] - Pop Mart's LABUBU series generated 4.81 billion yuan in revenue, experiencing an astonishing growth of 668% [3] - Weilong Delicious has successfully transformed its image from "junk food" to a healthy snack through packaging upgrades and flavor innovations [3][4] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The success of these brands is attributed to their understanding of consumer psychology, focusing on products that provide instant satisfaction and emotional fulfillment [3][4][6] - Young consumers are increasingly willing to pay for products that offer pleasure and satisfaction, influencing market dynamics and brand positioning [4][6] Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Dongpeng Beverage has differentiated itself from competitors like Red Bull by offering higher value products [3][4] - Pop Mart leverages unique IP culture and innovative marketing to cater to the desires of younger consumers for surprise and personalization [3][4] - Brands are adapting to changing consumer demands by introducing healthier options and innovative products, such as Weilong's new healthy snacks and Dongpeng's sugar-free variants [4]

Core Insights - AliExpress is preparing a high-profile brand expansion project, with invitations sent to Fortune 500 and leading brands, expected to launch before Double 11 [1] - The shift from low-price competition to brand collaboration is seen as a potential solution to the profit decline faced by nearly half of cross-border e-commerce sellers in 2024 [2] - The brand expansion initiative aims to enhance the platform's brand positioning and has already shown success with previous brand plans, where 95% of participating brands achieved annual sales of over $1 million [2] Company Developments - AliExpress has previously launched a "Brand Going Global Plan," with a goal to support 1,000 new brands to achieve annual sales exceeding $1 million by 2025 [2] - The platform has seen significant sales growth from brands like Pop Mart, with a 300% year-on-year increase in the collectible toy category driven by the Labubu IP [3] - The introduction of "hourly delivery" services in the UK and the expansion of "overseas hosting" in multiple markets are part of AliExpress's strategy to enhance its supply chain and logistics capabilities [4] Financial Performance - Alibaba Group reported a 19% year-on-year revenue growth for its International Digital Commerce Group, reaching approximately 34.741 billion yuan (about $4.850 billion), with cross-border business being a key growth driver [5] - The CFO indicated that the core business revenue growth supports strategic investments, with a focus on optimizing resource allocation and increasing investments in instant retail and AI technology [6] - The competitive landscape in cross-border e-commerce is intensifying, with major players like Amazon and Shein enhancing their brand support initiatives, which poses challenges for AliExpress's new project [6]

2、持续理解市场需求，产能储备、柔性化能力提升。据业绩会，公司现有毛绒产能相较年初已增加10 倍左右，达每月3000 万件，持续对市场需求进行理解与追赶——8 月28 日发售的mini LABUBU"心底密 码"系列毛绒挂件再度引起粉丝热情，虽仍在短时间内售罄，但消费者整体购买体验有明显优化；展望 后续，伴随对更多区域市场需求的理解更加深入，叠加产能及供应链安排优化带来的供应链柔性，我们 认为公司对需求与供给的匹配能力与精准度将进一步提升。 3、海外市场快速成长，运营仍有待细化之处，长期空间仍广。目前泡泡海外市场热度持续向好，泰国 ICONSIAM旗舰店在8 月初开业后店效出色，对其他门店亦并无虹吸效应，美国快速开店但需求增长更 快，带来线上占比持续提升。而相比国内，海外门店模型、线上官网、会员体系等运营细节均有待细化 之处，我们认为公司的零售基因与能力有望支撑近两年快速扩张后的同店向好，持续看好公司全球化战 略的长期空间。 盈利预测与估值 研究员：徐卓楠/张雪晴/王杰睿 公司近况 近期我们邀请了泡泡玛特管理层进行业绩后NDR交流，与投资者就供应链、IP运营、品类扩张等话题进 行了深入沟通。 评论 1、品类扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart (09992) by 5%, from HKD 365 to HKD 382, due to a 15% increase in the 2025 net profit forecast, while maintaining a 32x implied P/E ratio for 2026, with an "Overweight" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The estimated sales for Pop Mart this year are RMB 34.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 167%, with a projected net profit of RMB 11.1 billion, indicating a 257% year-on-year growth [1] - For next year, sales are expected to reach RMB 45 billion, which corresponds to a 30% year-on-year increase, and net profit is forecasted at RMB 14.6 billion, reflecting a 31% year-on-year growth [1] - Morgan Stanley has adjusted the net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 upwards by 15%, 5%, and 4% respectively, driven by increased revenue expectations from Greater China and overseas markets, as well as a reduction in operating expense ratios [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Sales in Greater China are projected to be RMB 17.3 billion this year, indicating a 96% year-on-year increase, with monthly store productivity reaching RMB 1.7 million, doubling year-on-year [1] - Online sales are expected to increase from 35% in the first half of the year to 40% in the second half [1] - Sales in the Asia-Pacific and Americas markets are estimated at approximately RMB 8 billion, with monthly store productivity rising from RMB 3.8 million in the first half to between RMB 5 million and RMB 5.5 million in the second half [2] - The European region is projected to have sales of RMB 1.4 billion [2] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The estimated gross margin for 2025 is 71.6%, with Greater China at 68% and overseas markets at 75% [2] - The core operating profit margin for the second half of the year is expected to be 43%, compared to 41.6% in the first half [2] - The net profit margin for the second half of the year is anticipated to be lower than that of the first half [2]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，将泡泡玛特(09992)目标价上调5%，从365港元升至382港 元，因将2025年净利润预测上调15%，2026年的隐含目标市盈率维持32倍不变，评级增持。 该行已重建泡泡玛特模型驱动因素，预估今年销售额为348亿元人民币(下同)，同比增167%;净利润料 111亿元，同比增257%。该行又预估泡泡玛特明年销售额为450亿元，相当于同比增30%;净利润146亿 元，意味同比增31%。 大摩分别将公司2025至2027年的净利润预测上调15%、5%、4%，主要受大中华区及海外市场收入预测 上调以及营运费用比率降低推动。其中大中华区今年销售额为173亿元人民币(意味同比增96%)。其上半 年门市生产力达每月170万元人民币，同比翻倍。假设下半年维持相似水平，尽管呈有利季节性因素。 线上销售占比从上半年35%增至下半年40%。 亚太及美洲区各市场销售额约80亿元，上半年门市生产力约每月380万元，下半年增至约500至550万 元。线上销售方面，大摩假设下半年与上半年各自的销售占比相似。欧洲区域，大摩则预估销售额为14 亿元。该行预估其2025年毛利率为71.6%，大中华区 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has revised its model for Pop Mart, projecting a sales revenue of 34.8 billion yuan for this year, representing a year-on-year increase of 167% [1] - The net profit is expected to reach 11.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 257% [1] Sales and Profit Forecast - For next year, sales are projected to be 45 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 30% [1] - The net profit for next year is anticipated to be 14.6 billion yuan, which means a year-on-year increase of 31% [1] Long-term Profit Predictions - Morgan Stanley has raised its net profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 by 15%, 5%, and 4% respectively [1] - This adjustment is primarily driven by increased revenue expectations from Greater China and overseas markets, as well as a reduction in operating expense ratios [1] Target Price Adjustment - The target price for Pop Mart has been increased from 365 HKD to 382 HKD [1] - The rating for the company has been maintained at "Overweight" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 at 11 billion and 14.1 billion respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 35 and 27 times for those years, and keeps an outperform rating with a target price of 370 HKD, indicating a 20% upside potential [1] Group 1 - The company has enhanced its product launch capabilities and IP potential through improved planning and collaboration between artists and product teams, leading to a dynamic balance of SKU numbers and the introduction of new product categories such as plush toys, accessories, desserts, clothing, and building blocks, with plans to explore small appliances [2] - The company has increased its plush production capacity by approximately 10 times since the beginning of the year, reaching 30 million pieces per month, and has optimized the consumer purchasing experience, indicating a better understanding of market demand and improved supply chain flexibility [3] Group 2 - The overseas market for the company is experiencing rapid growth, with successful store openings such as the ICONSIAM flagship store in Thailand, and a strong demand in the US leading to an increase in online sales, although operational details in overseas markets still require refinement [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the adjusted net profit forecast for Pop Mart (09992) at 11 billion and 14.1 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 35 and 27 times for those years, with a target price of 370 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20% [1] Group 1 - The company has enhanced its product launch capabilities and IP potential through a more mature product planning process, leading to an increase in the frequency of hot-selling products and a dynamic balance of SKU numbers [2] - The plush category continues to empower more IPs and has shown strong customer acquisition effects in new overseas markets, while the company is also exploring new categories such as small home appliances to extend IP boundaries and consumption scenarios [2] Group 2 - The company's plush production capacity has increased approximately tenfold since the beginning of the year, reaching 30 million pieces per month, which has improved the overall consumer purchasing experience [3] - The company is expected to enhance its ability to match supply and demand with a deeper understanding of market needs and optimized supply chain arrangements [3] Group 3 - The overseas market for Pop Mart is experiencing rapid growth, with the flagship store in Thailand performing well and no negative impact on other stores, while the U.S. is seeing a faster demand growth than store openings [4] - There are still areas for operational refinement in overseas markets, such as store models and online membership systems, but the company's retail capabilities are expected to support positive same-store performance following rapid expansion [4]