2025 年 4 月，海外纯多头基金在中国股票市场出现了 53 亿美元的显著资金流出，扭转了自 2 月以来连续两个月的流入趋势。此次流出由被动基金（37 亿 美元）和主动基金（16 亿美元）共同推动。南下资金势头依旧强劲，2025 年前 4 个月的流入量达到 2024 年全年的 75%。 海外注册基金流动情况 中国股票遭遇海外注册基金大规模流出（53 亿美元），终结 2 月以来的两月流入趋势：资金流动主要由被动基金流出（37 亿美元，3 月为流入 25 亿美 元）和主动基金流出（16 亿美元，3 月流出 20 亿美元）驱动（图表 2）。 截至 4 月 30 日，累计海外主动基金流动（净额）回到 2025 年 2 月底水平：4 月的流出抵消了 3 月约 50% 的流入，同时海外主动基金累计流动规模触及 2022 年底以来的历史低位（图表 4、图表 5）。根据最新数据，全球基金、亚洲（不含日本）基金和新兴市场基金对中国股票的低配比例分别小幅增加 1.3 个百分点、2.0 个百分点和 3.2 个百分点。 按行业划分 增持最多：阿里巴巴、比亚迪、携程集团和中国移动。 减持最多：腾讯和小米。 中国国内基金流动情况 中国 ...

Company Performance - Trip.com (TCOM) closed at $61.22, reflecting a +1.21% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500, which fell by 0.77% [1] - Over the last month, Trip.com's shares increased by 12.96%, while the Consumer Discretionary sector gained 14.18% and the S&P 500 gained 11.54% [1] Earnings Projections - The upcoming EPS for Trip.com is projected at $0.86, indicating a 3.61% increase year-over-year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $1.91 billion, representing a 15.93% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $3.44 per share, a decrease of 4.18% from the previous year, while revenue is projected at $8.45 billion, an increase of 14.02% [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates are seen as indicators of the company's business outlook [3] Valuation Metrics - Trip.com has a Forward P/E ratio of 17.57, which is lower than the industry average of 18.53, indicating a discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.08, compared to the industry average of 1.42, suggesting favorable valuation relative to growth [7] Industry Context - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 182, placing it in the bottom 27% of over 250 industries [8] - Stronger industry rankings correlate with better stock performance, with top-rated industries outperforming lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Market Overview - US stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.7%, Nasdaq down 0.94%, and S&P 500 down 0.75% [2][3] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Tesla, Nvidia, and Google A dropping over 1% [3] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks showed resilience, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 0.7% [3] - Notable gainers included Tencent Music and Weibo, both up over 2%, while NIO fell over 2% [3] Economic Data - The US trade deficit for March reached a record $140.5 billion, exceeding the forecast of $137.2 billion and up from $122.7 billion previously [2] - Exports were $278.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while imports were $418.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [2] Agricultural Exports Impact - The decline in US exports has affected agricultural products significantly, with major ports like Oregon and Tacoma seeing export drops of 51% and 28% respectively [4] - The overall impact has been widespread across US ports, indicating a severe disruption in agricultural exports [4] EU-US Trade Relations - EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic indicated that US tariffs currently cover 70% of EU goods trade, potentially rising to 97% after further investigations [5] - The EU is preparing countermeasures against US tariffs and aims for a fair negotiation outcome [6] Gold and Oil Market Trends - Gold prices continued to rise, with London gold up nearly 2% and COMEX gold up over 2% [7] - Goldman Sachs projected gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by year-end, with potential increases to $4,500 in extreme scenarios [7] - Global gold demand reached 1,206 tons in Q1, the strongest first-quarter demand since 2016 [8] - Oil prices surged, with NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent both rising over 3% [8]

Core Insights - Ctrip (TCOM) shares increased by 2.07% on May 6, closing at $61.745 with a market capitalization of $40.357 billion [1] - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Ctrip's total revenue is projected to be 53.294 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.73%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 17.067 billion RMB, a 72.08% increase [1] - Ctrip is set to release its Q1 2025 financial report on May 19 [1] Company Overview - Ctrip Group is a leading one-stop travel platform globally, offering a comprehensive range of travel products, services, and differentiated travel content [1] - The company assists users in exploring travel options, providing inspiration and information for cost-effective travel bookings, and offering in-trip services [1] - Established in 1999, Ctrip went public on NASDAQ in 2003 and was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2021, operating brands including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner [1] Service Offerings - Ctrip and Qunar provide one-stop travel services, with accommodation options exceeding 1.7 million globally, including hotels, motels, resorts, apartments, and other properties [2] - The flight service offers tickets from over 600 airlines, covering more than 3,400 airports across over 220 countries and regions [2] International Operations - Trip.com and Skyscanner cater to non-mainland Chinese users, with Trip.com offering services in 24 languages and 35 local currencies [3] - Skyscanner provides services in over 50 countries and regions, available in more than 35 languages [3] - The company utilizes mobile applications, various mobile channels, multilingual websites, physical stores, and customer service centers to deliver a rich array of products, services, and content [3] - As of December 31, 2023, the company employed 36,249 staff members [3]

Core Insights - The domestic tourism market in China experienced a significant surge during the May Day holiday, with 314 million domestic trips taken, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% from the previous year [1] - The travel demand was driven by favorable weather conditions and the trend of combining holidays, leading to a historic high in travel enthusiasm, which is expected to extend into the following weekend [1] Group 1: Travel Trends - The travel market showed a diverse range of popular destinations, with major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Sanya leading the way, and a notable increase in long-distance travel to regions such as Qinghai and Xinjiang, where ticket sales doubled compared to last year [4] - The trend of "reverse tourism" gained traction, with smaller cities and rural areas attracting visitors due to their affordability and lower crowd levels, resulting in a 30% increase in hotel bookings in county-level cities [4][5] Group 2: Consumer Demographics - The consumer base for tourism has become more diverse, with a 30% increase in first-time flight bookings, particularly among younger travelers aged 19-22 and older travelers aged 60-80, whose bookings rose by 40% [5][8] - The "new silver-haired" demographic, aged 55-60, showed a strong inclination towards quality travel experiences, with a 47% increase in hotel bookings, particularly for high-end accommodations [8] Group 3: Emerging Travel Preferences - There is a growing trend of pet-friendly travel, with a 30% increase in bookings for pet-friendly hotels during the May Day holiday, reflecting a shift towards accommodating pet owners in the tourism market [9] - The market is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality upgrade," with rising demand for differentiated experiences such as family-friendly travel and cultural integration [9]

"五一"假期消费亮点纷呈，显示出国内消费市场正逐步回暖、信心增强，也体现了消费模式的创新与多 元化，彰显了居民消费需求的升级。 5天全国国内出游3.14亿人次，同比增长6.4%；国内游客出游总花费1802.69亿元，同比增长8.0%……这 个"五一"假期，全国旅游市场大幅升温，新的文旅消费热点不断涌现。 "假日经济"的火热，折射出我国消费市场的活力与潜力。抢抓节日消费旺季，促消费政策也在密集出 台。 业内分析，"五一"假期消费亮点纷呈，显示出国内消费市场正逐步回暖、信心增强，也体现了消费模式 的创新与多元化，彰显了居民消费需求的升级。随着从中央到地方促消费政策落地见效，消费增速仍有 提速空间。 假期消费亮点频现 "五一"假期，出行需求集中释放。交通运输部数据显示，5月1日至5日，全社会跨区域人员流动量 146594万人次，日均29319万人次，同比增长7.9%。其中：铁路客运量10170万人次，日均2034万人 次，同比增长10.8%；公路跨区域人员流动量同比增长7.6%；民航客运量1115万人次，日均223万人 次，同比增长11.8%。 人员流动带来了服务消费持续升温，餐饮文旅市场红火。据商务大数据监测，假 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group (09961.HK) is scheduled to announce its financial results on May 20, 2025, before the trading hours of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Summary by Category - **Company Announcement** - Ctrip Group will release its earnings report on May 20, 2025 [1] - The announcement will take place prior to the trading hours of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group Limited will announce its financial results for the first quarter of 2025 on May 19, 2025, after market close [1] Group 1: Financial Results Announcement - The financial results will cover the three months ended March 31, 2025 [1] - The announcement will be followed by a conference call at 8:00 PM U.S. Eastern Time on the same day [2] - The conference call will be available via live webcast and will be archived for twelve months [2] Group 2: Conference Call Details - Participants must pre-register to join the conference call [2][3] - Upon registration, participants will receive dial-in numbers and a unique access PIN [3] Group 3: Company Overview - Trip.com Group Limited is a leading global one-stop travel platform, offering a comprehensive suite of travel products and services [4] - The company operates under various brands, including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner [4] - Founded in 1999, the company was listed on Nasdaq in 2003 and on HKEX in 2021 [4]

Group 1: Overall Market Trends - The recent "May Day" holiday saw a significant increase in tourism, with the cultural and tourism market reaching a three-year high [1][3] - Online travel platforms reported a 30% increase in travel orders compared to the same period in 2023, with inbound travel orders soaring by 130% [1][2] - The trend of extending holidays or "taking 4 days off and resting for 11" has become more pronounced, leading to longer travel periods [1][6] Group 2: Travel Preferences and Destinations - The "拼假游" (拼假 travel) trend has led to a 30% increase in travelers utilizing annual leave combined with public holidays, with hotel bookings spanning 1,837 cities globally [2][4] - Long-distance travel destinations such as Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Ningxia saw ticket sales increase by 100-200% year-on-year [2][4] - The popularity of "反向游" (reverse travel) has emerged, with hotel bookings in 1,230 counties increasing by 30%, primarily driven by residents from first and new first-tier cities [4][5] Group 3: Culinary Tourism and Cultural Events - "Taste travel" has gained traction, with many tourists exploring local cuisines, leading to a surge in restaurant traffic in smaller cities [3][6] - Over 23 music festivals took place nationwide during the holiday, contributing to a 40% increase in ticket bookings for scenic spots [3][6] - The combination of cultural events and tourism has proven to be a significant driver of consumer spending during the holiday [3][6] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Experience - There is a growing demand for diverse and engaging travel experiences, with preferences shifting towards unique activities such as island vacations and cultural immersion [6][7] - The data indicates a transition in tourism consumption from "scale expansion" to "quality upgrade," highlighting a strong market demand for differentiated experiences [6][7] - The travel enthusiasm from the "May Day" holiday is expected to extend into the following weekend, as more travelers opt for post-holiday trips [7]

Core Insights - The domestic cultural tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery during the May Day holiday in 2025, shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality upgrade" with a rising demand for differentiated experiences [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Trends - Popular travel destinations during the May Day holiday include Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing, Nanjing, Wuhan, Shenzhen, and Xi'an, with Jiangsu showing significant growth in hotel and flight bookings, up 12% and 76% year-on-year respectively [1] - The rise of niche markets such as family travel and pet-friendly trips is evident, with family-oriented hotel bookings in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi increasing over 100% [3][5] - The integration of culture and tourism is a prominent trend, with searches for intangible cultural heritage-themed tours surging, leading to a 132% increase in related ticket bookings [5][10] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The demand for rural and county tourism is growing, with bookings for rural trips increasing nearly 20% and occupancy rates for certain rural resorts exceeding 90% [7][9] - The younger demographic, particularly university students aged 19-22, shows a 30% increase in purchasing their first flight tickets, while the "new silver-haired" group has a 43% increase in hotel bookings, focusing on quality and emotional value [3][10] Group 3: Inbound Tourism - Inbound tourism is rebounding strongly, with a 130% year-on-year increase in orders during the May Day holiday, particularly in cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou [10][11] - The demand for local food experiences among foreign tourists has surged, with related orders increasing 6.8 times compared to the previous year [11] Group 4: Travel Preferences - Diverse travel methods are gaining popularity, with significant increases in self-driving, free travel, and private group bookings, as evidenced by a 24% rise in per capita car rental spending [12][14] - Train and flight bookings for domestic travel during the May Day holiday have also seen notable growth, with train ticket bookings up 10% and flight bookings up 25% year-on-year [14][16]