CEO Elon Musk predicts 20% to 30% delivery growth next year. Tesla's (TSLA 3.34%) stock has had an up-and-down year, but its shares were surging higher following its third-quarter earnings report and upbeat forecast for future deliveries. Having recouped the negative returns in the first half of 2024, the stock is currently around breakeven for the year. The electric vehicle (EV) maker continues to talk up its plans for autonomous vehicles and its robotaxi, which it gave a preview of earlier this month. Let ...

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Tesla's Future Strategy - Cathie Wood believes Tesla's future is not dependent on selling passenger electric vehicles but rather on its full self-driving (FSD) software, which she calls the biggest AI opportunity in the world [1] - Ark Investment Management predicts that by 2029, 86% of Tesla's earnings will come from sources other than passenger EVs [1] Challenges in Passenger EV Business - Tesla delivered 1.29 million EVs in the first three quarters of 2024, a 2.3% drop compared to the same period last year [2] - Annual deliveries are on track to shrink for the first time since the launch of the Model S in 2011, despite price cuts to boost demand [2] - Consumer demand for EVs is softening due to high interest rates, lack of rapid charging infrastructure, and declining resale values [2] Competitive Threats - Low-cost manufacturers like BYD are threatening Tesla's market share with EVs priced under $10,000 [3] - Tesla's plan to build a $25,000 low-cost EV has been canceled, leaving the company vulnerable to competitors [3] Focus on Autonomous Vehicles - Tesla's future is in autonomous vehicles, with the unveiling of the Cybercab, a self-driving robotaxi [4] - FSD software is statistically 10 times safer than human-driven vehicles, with one crash every 7 million miles compared to one every 700,000 miles for human drivers [4] - Tesla is investing $11 billion in AI data center infrastructure to further develop FSD [5] Monetization of FSD - Tesla plans to monetize FSD through software sales to EV owners, licensing to other manufacturers, and a driverless ride-hailing network [6] - The Cybercab will be available for purchase at $30,000, allowing individuals to set up their own driverless ride-hailing networks [6] - Software revenue sources could carry high profit margins, potentially exceeding Tesla's current hardware gross margin of 19.8% [6] Financial Projections - Ark predicts Tesla will generate $1.2 trillion in annual revenue by 2029, with FSD and Cybercab accounting for 63% of revenue and 86% of EBITDA [7] - Wall Street estimates Tesla's 2024 revenue at $99 billion, requiring a compound annual growth rate of 64.7% to meet Ark's 2029 forecast [8] Market Valuation - Tesla's stock trades at a P/E ratio of 68.5, more than double the Nasdaq-100's P/E ratio of 32.1 [8] - The company's fate will rely on passenger EV sales until the Cybercab goes into mass production in 2026 [9]

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) (NEOE: TSLA:CA ) stock closed 22% higher for the day. It rallied 11% before the bell Thursday after the company reported 3Q24 earnings the evening before, with revenue up 7.8% year-over-year to $25.18 billionI’m a retired Wall Street PM specializing in TMT; my educational background is a bachelor's in Finance and Economics, and an MBA from Columbia, after which I directly began my career on Wall Street. Since kickstarting my career, I’ve spent over two decades in the market navigating ...

Investment Rating - Tesla (TSLA US) is rated as "Buy" with a target price of US$270 00, indicating a 26% upside potential from the current price of US$213 65 [2] Core Views - Tesla's 3Q24 gross margin improved significantly to 19 8%, up 1 8/1 9 percentage points YoY/QoQ, driven by a 4 6% QoQ reduction in vehicle cost to US$35,106 [3] - Elon Musk expects 20-30% growth in new vehicle sales in 2025, with Cybercab production reaching 2 million units annually in the future [3][4] - Tesla plans to launch a cheaper model priced below US$30,000 in 2025, and FSD V13 is expected to be released soon, improving intervention intervals by 5-6 times [4] - The Lathrop factory is rapidly developing, and the Shanghai factory is expected to start shipments in 1Q25, with fixed energy storage product capacity reaching 100GWh annually [4] Financial Performance - 3Q24 revenue was US$25 18 billion, up 7 8% YoY but down 1 2% QoQ, with operating profit reaching US$2 72 billion, up 54 0%/69 3% YoY/QoQ [3] - 3Q24 GAAP/non-GAAP net income was US$2 17/2 51 billion, up 16 9%/8 1% YoY, with operating cash flow and free cash flow at US$6 26/2 74 billion [3] - 2024E/2025E/2026E EPS is forecasted at US$2 82/3 54/4 51, with 2024E EPS revised up by 7% [2] - 2024E/2025E/2026E revenue is projected at US$98 87/117 18/140 12 billion, with non-GAAP net income at US$9 05/12 21/15 56 billion [4][7] Valuation - Tesla's 2024E P/E for the automotive business is maintained at 90x, while the energy storage business is valued at 10x P/S, resulting in a target price of US$270 00 [8][9] - The automotive business is valued at US$708 82 billion, energy storage at US$96 13 billion, and services/other at US$52 51 billion, totaling US$857 46 billion [9] Industry Outlook - The automotive and auto parts sector is rated as "Overweight" [1]

| --- | |-------| | | | | | | [Table_Market] 海 外 公 司 （ 美 国 ） 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 降本推动毛利率超预期，自动驾驶持续推进 特斯拉(TSLA.O) [Table_Industry] 海外信息科技 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——特斯拉 FY24Q3 业绩点评 [table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) 0755-23976666 qinheping027734@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523110003 本报告导读： 本季毛利率走出低谷大超预期，生产端将持续降本。2.5 万美金车型将于 25H1 开始 生产，丰富车型带动交付量新一轮增长。FSD 持续推进，算力配置充足。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 盈利预测与投资建议：我们小幅调整公司 FY2024E-FY2026E 的营 业收入为 1008/1168/1366 亿美元（前值为 1030/1213/1374 亿美元）； ...

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) hitting a market capitalization of $4 trillion is a target thrown around several times, even by CEO Elon Musk, and an analyst has outlined a path to achieving this goal. This outlook has gained momentum following Tesla's recent price surge, triggered by better-than-expected Q3 2024 results. As of press time, the stock was valued at $269.19, surging almost 23% in just one week. This price movement has seen TSLA reverse 2024's losses, with gains of over 8% year-to-date, resulting in a mar ...

The key for Tesla investors is where growth is coming from. Tesla's (TSLA 3.34%) stock jumped after the company released third-quarter results, but the market was looking at what Elon Musk said about the future and not so much on what was reported last quarter. In this video, Travis Hoium digs through the numbers, including the good and not-so-good trends for Tesla. *Stock prices used were end-of-day prices of Oct. 22, 2024. The video was published on Oct. 24, 2024. ...

Tesla stock has surged since the company reported earnings on Wednesday.Wall Street analysts broke down the factors they believe are fueling the rally.Emarketer analyst Jacob Bourne said the "surprise element" was the biggest contributor. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read preview Thanks for signing up! Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on ...

Topline A 2018 tweet made by Tesla CEO Elon Musk suggesting workers would lose stock options if they formed a union was ruled as protected speech Friday, preventing Musk from having to follow a prior court order commanding him to delete the controversial post. SpaceX and Tesla founder Elon Musk speaks at a town hall with Republican U.S. Senate candidate Dave ... [+] McCormick at the Roxain Theater on Sunday in Pittsburgh. (Photo by Michael Swensen/Getty Images) Getty Images Key Facts The Fifth Circuit Court ...