Core Viewpoint - TSMC has become the world's largest foundry with a valuation exceeding $1 trillion, significantly ahead of competitors like Samsung and Intel, despite previous concerns about increasing competition [1] Financial Performance - TSMC reported consolidated revenue of approximately NT$933.79 billion (about RMB 228.03 billion) and a net profit of NT$398.27 billion (about RMB 97.26 billion), with earnings per share at NT$15.36 [2][3] - Revenue growth exceeded 40% year-on-year, with gross margin increasing over 5 percentage points, indicating enhanced pricing power; however, there are signs of demand slowing down in the quarter [3][4] Business Segmentation - TSMC's revenue from advanced processes includes 24% from 3nm technology and 36% from 5nm technology, while 7nm technology's revenue remains stable despite a declining percentage [4] - High-performance computing (HPC) remains a core pillar, accounting for over 60% of revenue with double-digit growth year-on-year, but there are concerns about the sustainability of AI demand [6] Cash Flow Situation - Operating cash flow for the quarter reached NT$500 billion (approximately $16 billion), with a dividend yield of only 1.2%, sufficient to cover dividends but facing high capital expenditures of $9.4 billion [8] - Projected capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to reach $40 billion, leading to an estimated annual free cash flow of about $25 billion, resulting in a free cash flow yield of less than 3% [8][9] Competitive Landscape - Intel is advancing its 18A process node and plans to expand capacity, while Samsung is accelerating its 2nm process development, posing potential threats to TSMC's market position [10] - The U.S. market's shift towards domestic manufacturing and protectionist policies may challenge TSMC's competitive edge, especially if Samsung establishes 2nm capacity in the U.S. [10] Conclusion - TSMC faces two core risks: high valuation combined with low free cash flow yield, and significant investments by Intel and Samsung aiming for key process breakthroughs that could compress profit margins [12]

特朗普此前曾公开表态称，美国对于半导体关税的税率可能高达25%～100%。并且，新规则不排除以晶圆制 造地（wafer out）作为源产地来加征关税。这也将对台积电、英特尔、三星、美光等晶圆制造厂商，以及英 伟达、苹果、高通、联发科等依赖于圆代工产能的芯片设计厂商带来严重负面影响。 因此，在今年5月下旬，台积电、英特尔、美光和高通等半导体巨头以及美国半导体行业协会（SIA）都向美 国商务部工业和安全局（BIS）提交了意见评论，纷纷敦促美国总统特朗普谨慎对待半导体关税，并警告一旦 施行广泛的关税，可能对美国半导体产业造成严重意外损害。 7月28日消息，美国总统特朗普近日在苏格兰与欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）敲定关税协 定。与此同时，美国商务部长 霍华德·卢特尼克 (Howard Lutnick) 在场边接受媒体采访时表示，针对芯片产业 发起的"232调查"结果将会在两周内公布。 今年4月14日，美国商务部下属部门工业与安全局（BIS）通过联邦公报官网宣布，根据《1962年贸易扩展 法》第232条款赋予的权力，对进口半导体及半导体制造设备和其衍生产品、进口药品及药用成分发起国 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the advanced semiconductor manufacturing industry, particularly in relation to autonomous driving and robotics, and their impact on wafer fabrication capacity [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Demand for Advanced Process Capacity** - The combined demand for autonomous driving and robotics is estimated at 1.65 million wafers per month, equivalent to the capacity of approximately 3.25 TSMC facilities. Domestic wafer fabs would need to increase their capacity by 37 times to meet this demand [1][5]. 2. **Comparison of Chip Types** - The die size of autonomous driving and robotics chips is similar to that of GPUs, leading to comparable capacity consumption. However, the market size for autonomous driving and robotics is significantly larger, indicating a greater demand for advanced process capacity [2][3][4]. 3. **NVIDIA's Cost Structure** - In NVIDIA's data center business, the value allocated to wafer foundry services is very low, accounting for only 2.25% of sales. The breakdown shows that HBM contributes 7.25% and packaging costs account for 5.5% [6][10]. 4. **Future Capacity Needs** - The future demand for advanced process capacity from autonomous driving and robotics is expected to surpass that of AI GPUs. As penetration rates increase, the demand for chips in these sectors could grow significantly, potentially exceeding tenfold [3][17][20]. 5. **Challenges for Domestic Foundries** - Domestic advanced foundries face challenges in producing high-end chips due to a lack of EUV lithography machines, leading to lower yields compared to TSMC. For instance, TSMC achieves a 50% yield with single exposure, while domestic foundries using multiple exposures see significantly reduced yields [15][16]. 6. **Market Dynamics** - The structure of customers for advanced process foundries is expected to change as the demand from autonomous driving and robotics increases. This shift will require more resources to be allocated to these emerging fields [7][22]. 7. **Investment Considerations** - Investors should focus on the expansion plans of advanced process foundries, as the demand for wafer consumption is expected to rise significantly. Companies like TSMC and SMIC, which have linear growth expansion plans, should be prioritized [23]. Additional Important Insights - The potential for robots to consume wafer capacity is substantial, with predictions suggesting a global demand for 1.51 million wafers for robotics by 2040, far exceeding the demand for autonomous driving chips [20]. - The trend of "one car, multiple chips" is becoming common in new vehicle designs, indicating a growing need for more advanced chips in automotive applications [18]. - The current consumption of wafer capacity is dominated by smartphones, computers, and tablets, but this is expected to shift as autonomous driving and robotics gain traction [21][22].

Core Insights - Investors should focus on companies with strong growth potential, competitive advantages, and adaptability to technology trends Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia is the leader in AI infrastructure, holding a 92% market share in Q1 [2] - The company's competitive edge lies in its CUDA software platform, which has been widely adopted in research and development [3] - Nvidia is expanding into new markets, including autonomous driving, while recently receiving approval to sell H20 chips in China [4] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is the leading chip foundry, producing chips for major companies like Nvidia and Apple [6] - The company has seen a rise in revenue from high-performance computing, which now constitutes 60% of its revenue, up from 52% a year ago [7] - TSMC's advanced manufacturing capabilities position it as a key player in the growing AI and autonomous driving markets [8] Group 3: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms is leveraging AI to enhance its digital advertising capabilities, increasing user engagement on Facebook and Instagram [9] - The company is beginning to monetize WhatsApp and Threads, which have significant user bases, providing a long growth runway [10] - CEO Mark Zuckerberg is investing heavily in AI talent to achieve ambitious goals, positioning Meta as a potential leader in AI [11] Group 4: GitLab - GitLab is evolving into a comprehensive software development lifecycle platform, integrating AI to enhance development processes [12] - The introduction of over 30 new features in GitLab 18 aims to improve efficiency across the software development lifecycle [13] - GitLab's focus on AI-driven solutions positions it well for future growth in an increasingly AI-centric software landscape [13] Group 5: Toast - Toast is becoming essential in the restaurant industry by providing software that enhances operational efficiency and sales [14] - The integration of AI tools like ToastIQ is helping restaurants make data-driven decisions in real time [15] - As restaurants face economic pressures, Toast's technology solutions offer significant growth opportunities in a large and fragmented market [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three undervalued stocks in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector: Taiwan Semiconductor, Adobe, and Alphabet, suggesting they present good investment opportunities despite market concerns [1]. Group 1: Company Performance and Positioning - Taiwan Semiconductor is the primary chip fabricator for leading tech companies like Nvidia and Apple, positioning it favorably in the AI race [3]. - The company reported a remarkable 44% revenue increase in the second quarter, exceeding expectations, and is projected to grow at nearly a 20% compound annual growth rate over the next five years [4]. - Adobe is recognized for its industry-standard graphics design tools, but faces concerns about being displaced by generative AI technologies [5]. - Despite these concerns, Adobe has invested in generative AI and developed its Firefly product, allowing it to remain competitive and relevant in the graphic design industry [6][9]. - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, faces similar fears regarding generative AI replacing Google Search; however, its entrenched user base and recent AI search features may help maintain its market share [10][11]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Comparison - Alphabet's stock trades at a significant discount compared to the broader market, with the S&P 500 trading at 23.8 times forward earnings, while Alphabet offers a reasonable price for its growth potential [12][14]. - Adobe is also considered cheap, trading at 18 times forward earnings, indicating potential for upside [14]. - Taiwan Semiconductor trades at 25 times forward earnings, which is a slight premium to the market, but its expected growth rate justifies this valuation, making it a bargain buy [16][17].

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor's CEO stated that the company has not observed any changes in customer behavior due to tariffs, indicating a unique resilience in its operations [2][8] - The semiconductor industry is currently exempt from reciprocal tariffs, which may change as new tariffs take effect on August 1 [4][5] - Taiwan Semiconductor's dominant position in the chip industry, coupled with its clients' reliance on its technology, suggests that clients are compelled to navigate tariff challenges rather than seek alternatives [6][9] Tariff Impact - Semiconductors are exempt from all reciprocal tariffs and the base 10% blanket tariff, which currently protects Taiwan Semiconductor from immediate tariff impacts [4] - The potential implementation of tariffs on other goods could lead to higher rates than those affecting semiconductors, necessitating caution in drawing conclusions about the overall market [5] Company Position - Taiwan Semiconductor is a critical partner for major tech companies like Nvidia and Apple, due to limited alternatives in high-end chip foundries [6] - The company is proactively expanding its U.S. production facilities in Arizona to help clients avoid tariffs on foreign goods [7][9] Growth Projections - Taiwan Semiconductor's management projects a 45% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI-related revenue and nearly 20% CAGR for total revenue over the next five years, indicating strong growth potential [10][11] - The company's stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24, comparable to the S&P 500's 23.8, yet with expected market-beating growth, making it an attractive investment [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Continuous focus on AI applications and stablecoin investment opportunities is emphasized [5][12] - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) has commenced, showcasing global AI innovations with over 800 participating companies and more than 3000 cutting-edge exhibits [5][12] - OpenAI is expected to release the GPT-5 series model in early August, which is anticipated to significantly enhance AI application development [6][13][32] - Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations will take effect on August 1, 2025, with initial licenses being limited and focused on practical business proposals [7][14] Market Review - During the week of July 21-25, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.69%, while the computer index increased by 1.71% [4][16] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the AI application sector include Kingsoft Office, Dingjie Zhizhi, and others, with beneficiaries such as Hanbang Gaoke and Huitian Ruisheng [8][15] - AI computing sector recommendations include Haiguang Information and others, with beneficiaries like Cambricon and Jingjia Micro [8][15] - In the stablecoin sector, recommended companies include Hengsheng Electronics and Boyan Technology, with beneficiaries such as New Cap and New Morning Technology [8][15] - RWA sector recommendations include Langxin Group and Zhuoyi Information, with beneficiaries like Anheng Information [8][15] Company Dynamics - Rongzhi Rixin expects a half-year revenue of 250 million to 260 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.06 million to 40.06 million yuan, with a net profit increase of 133.42 million to 143.42 million yuan [17] - Gaolun Electronics has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai Guotou and Shanghai Xinhui [19] - Huitian Ruisheng anticipates a half-year revenue of 148.86 million to 164.53 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 61.06% to 78.01% [18]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025, indicating potential opportunities for bottom-fishing in the semiconductor sector [1] Group 1: TSMC's Revenue Growth - TSMC's updated forecast suggests a more optimistic outlook for the semiconductor industry, which may signal a recovery phase [1] - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate increase, reflecting improved demand and market conditions [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic investments in semiconductor stocks as the market approaches a potential bottom [1] - Analysts recommend focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential within the semiconductor space [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by TSMC in establishing a semiconductor manufacturing facility in Arizona, emphasizing regulatory hurdles that may limit its production capacity to only 7% of the U.S. semiconductor needs [3]. Group 1: TSMC's Arizona Facility - U.S. Treasury Secretary warned that TSMC's $40 billion facility in Arizona may only produce 7% of the U.S. semiconductor requirements due to local regulatory challenges [3]. - The construction of the facility is reportedly slowed down by regulatory obstacles, which complicate the building process [3]. - TSMC plans to have its second factory operational by 2027, with 30% of its advanced 2nm capacity expected to come from this Arizona facility [3]. Group 2: TSMC's Advanced Process Technology - TSMC is set to begin mass production of its 2nm process technology in the second half of this year, with expectations that the design tape-outs will exceed those of the 3nm and 5nm processes in the first two years [4]. - The 2nm process technology offers a 10% to 15% speed increase at the same power consumption or a 25% to 30% reduction in power consumption at the same speed, with a chip density increase of over 15% [4]. - Future plans include the introduction of the N2P process technology, which will provide better performance and power efficiency, scheduled for mass production in the second half of 2026 [4]. Group 3: Upcoming Process Developments - TSMC's roadmap includes the A16 process, which will enhance speed by 8% to 10% at the same power consumption or reduce power consumption by 15% to 20% at the same speed, with a chip density increase of 7% to 10% [5]. - The A16 process is designed for high-performance computing (HPC) products and is expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The 12nm process node, previously considered mature, is now gaining attention in the semiconductor industry due to its balance of performance, power consumption, and cost, making it a strategic choice for various applications, especially in edge AI and IoT devices [1][3][23] Group 1: Expansion of 12nm Applications - Numerous domestic and international companies are adopting 12nm technology across various sectors, including wearable devices, servers, smartphones, AI, and automotive applications [5][11] - Notable products include Unisoc's W527 platform for wearables, Loongson's 3C6000 server CPU, and various chips for AR/VR and industrial IoT [6][10][11] Group 2: Drivers Behind the Resurgence of 12nm - The shift towards edge computing and AI applications is driving demand for cost-effective solutions that 12nm can provide, as it strikes a balance between performance and cost [12][13] - Geopolitical factors are prompting companies to reassess their manufacturing processes, with 12nm being a safer choice that supports mainstream applications without being at the cutting edge [13][14] - The compatibility of 12nm with advanced packaging technologies allows for efficient system-level integration, making it attractive for modern chip designs [13][14] Group 3: Foundry Focus on 12nm - Major foundries like TSMC, UMC, and Intel are increasingly focusing on 12nm, with TSMC's 12nm FinFET Compact technology being a key offering [16][17] - UMC and Intel's collaboration on 12nm aims to address the growing demand in mobile communications and network infrastructure, highlighting the strategic importance of this node [18][19] - The partnership allows both companies to leverage their strengths, with Intel focusing on manufacturing and UMC on process development, catering to market needs while navigating geopolitical challenges [20][21][22] Group 4: Future Outlook for 12nm - The 12nm node is expected to play a crucial role in the evolution of edge AI, IoT, and automotive electronics, serving as a bridge between chip design and system solutions [23] - As advanced packaging and system-level optimizations continue to develop, 12nm may become increasingly central to the semiconductor ecosystem, supporting a wide range of applications [23]