Last time I called Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, aka TSMC (NYSE: TSM ), a Buy, it was doubling down on the company's perspectives on fundamentals, in spite of the macro overhang and the chaos brought to markets byI'm a full-time analyst and portfolio manager of a technology fund with 5 years of experience. I graduated in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) and École Centrale de Lyon (France). I'm currently licensed by the Brazilian Securities C ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's Q2 performance is expected to exceed expectations, driven by strong demand for advanced process nodes, but the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar poses challenges for its profitability in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Q2 Performance - Morgan Stanley forecasts TSMC's Q2 revenue to reach $29.95 billion, a 17% quarter-over-quarter increase, significantly surpassing the company's guidance of 11-14% [2]. - The strong performance is attributed to three main factors: rapid ramp-up of N3 process, sustained strong performance of N5 series, and urgent orders from older process nodes [2]. - Despite the significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, Q2 gross margin is expected to remain at 57.9%, within the company's guidance range, due to higher capacity utilization and price increases from urgent orders [2] [1]. Group 2: Outlook for H2 - For the second half of the year, the fundamental drivers are viewed more positively compared to three months ago, leading to an upward revision of TSMC's 2025 revenue guidance to a high growth level of 29% (in USD) [3]. - However, the New Taiwan Dollar has appreciated by 11% since late April, which is expected to significantly impact gross margin and profitability in the second half [3]. - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its exchange rate model to 1 USD = 29 TWD, resulting in a 1% and 2% downward revision of TSMC's earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3]. - The expected gross margin for the second half is projected to decline to around 56% due to the impact of currency appreciation [3]. - Quarterly forecasts indicate a 3-6% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth for Q3, while Q4 is expected to decline by 6% due to the fading effect of demand pull-forward and conservative expectations for non-AI demand [3]. Group 3: Advanced Process Demand - Despite currency challenges, TSMC's leadership in advanced processes and strong demand remain its core competitive advantages [4]. - The demand for N3 process is expected to maintain over 100% utilization in 2026 and 2027, potentially leading to supply shortages due to capacity constraints [7]. - The demand outlook for N2 process in 2026 is described as "quite strong," with major clients like Apple, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Intel likely to adopt N2 technology [7]. - Apple is considering the full adoption of N2 processors in four new iPhone models in the second half of 2025, which could further boost N2 demand [7].

总的来看，小摩预计台积电的结构性增长动力仍将强劲，原因在于其在人工智能加速器和尖端人工智能 领域占据近乎垄断的地位，同时得益于其强大的工艺路线图(N3 和 N2)以及业界领先的封装技术。小摩 预计台积电将在 2025 财年提高其美元营收指引，这得益于强劲的人工智能需求以及苹果订单的少量减 少。此外，小摩预计 N2 的产量将在 2026 年开始大幅增加，多个客户将从 2025 年末开始将人工智能加 速器迁移到 N3，从而确保 N3 的充分利用。 不过，小摩仍预计 2025 年下半年的增长会有所放缓，因为第二季度受到关税相关因素的影响，这将为 2025 年下半年带来一定的上行空间，前提是AI需求保持强劲。同时，持续的新台币升值(自 4 月下旬以 来升值 11%)可能会对 2025 年下半年的毛利率和收益产生影响。 小摩现在预计 2025 年新台币为准的营收将增长 21%，2025 年下半年毛利率将在 56%左右，由于汇率升 值。2026 年，小摩预计由于强劲的AI需求、好于预期的N2订单需求以及价格的持续上涨，美元营收将 实现增长17%至19%。小摩还预计毛利率在 2026 年仍将保持相对稳定(小摩预期为 56. ...

Core Insights - The competition in the AI chip market is intensifying, with significant investments from major tech companies aimed at increasing computing capacity to support large language model training and AI inference [1][3] - Nvidia has experienced substantial growth, with data center revenue increasing over tenfold in three years, driven by high demand for its GPUs [2][3] - However, competition is emerging from AMD and custom chip designs from major cloud providers, which could challenge Nvidia's market position [4][6] Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia's data center revenue is projected to grow by 50% in the second quarter, but competition is expected to accelerate, potentially allowing other companies to outpace Nvidia in AI chip revenue growth over the next three years [3][4] - AMD is positioning itself as a serious competitor with its upcoming MI400 chips, which promise better price performance for large data centers [5][6] - Custom silicon designs from companies like Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are also gaining traction, with these firms reporting better price performance with their own chips compared to Nvidia's offerings [7][6] Group 2: TSMC's Growth Potential - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is set to benefit significantly from the growing demand for AI chips, with expectations to triple its AI-related revenue from 2025 to 2027 [10][13] - TSMC anticipates doubling its AI-related revenue to approximately $26 billion in 2024, with a target of over 20% annual growth in 2026 and 2027 to achieve its tripling goal [13][14] - The introduction of advanced manufacturing processes, including 2nm and 1.6nm nodes, is expected to enhance TSMC's competitive edge, with contracts already secured from major clients [15][16] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - TSMC's AI-related revenue is projected to grow to about 30% of its total revenue by the end of the decade, with overall revenue growth expected to be around 20% over the next five years [16] - The company's stock is currently trading at a forward PE ratio of less than 25, presenting a more attractive valuation compared to Nvidia and AMD, which trade around 35 times earnings [17]

Group 1: Trade Policies and Tariffs - The U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all products imported from Japan and South Korea, effective from August 1, 2025, citing trade imbalances as a significant threat to the U.S. economy and national security [5][6][10] - Trump extended the grace period for the implementation of these tariffs until August 1, 2025, allowing for further negotiations [8][9] - Japan's Prime Minister expressed regret over the tariffs and outlined three measures to mitigate their impact, emphasizing the need for continued negotiations with the U.S. [12] Group 2: Agricultural Trade Agreements - Indonesia signed a five-year agreement to import at least 1 million tons of U.S. wheat annually, valued at approximately $1.25 billion [13][14] - This agreement is part of Indonesia's strategy to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products to avoid high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [15][17] Group 3: Artificial Intelligence Regulations - Nearly 50 major European companies, including Airbus and Mercedes-Benz, are calling for a delay in the implementation of the EU's AI regulations, arguing that the regulations could jeopardize the region's ambitions in AI [20] - The UK and Singapore are deepening their digital finance cooperation, focusing on AI and asset tokenization [21][22] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Developments - South Korea has reduced its reliance on Japanese chip materials, with the import dependency for photoresist dropping from 93.2% to 65.4% [39][40] - TSMC is delaying the construction of its second factory in Japan due to U.S. policy impacts, while also accelerating investments in the U.S. [45][51] - Samsung's Q2 profits are expected to drop by 39% due to weak sales of AI chips, raising concerns about its competitiveness in the AI chip market [52][53][54] Group 5: Automotive Industry Updates - BYD has begun assembling cars in Brazil, with plans to produce 60,000 vehicles annually once fully operational [58][60][62] - Mercedes-Benz reported a 9% decline in Q2 sales, with significant drops in both the North American and Chinese markets [64] Group 6: Aerospace and Space Exploration - The International Deep Space Exploration Society was established in China, marking a significant step in international cooperation in space exploration [66][67] - Globalstar has signed a launch service agreement with SpaceX to enhance its satellite services [68]

来源：看台海 台积电近日在美又被告了。日前，有美国媒体披露，台积电在美国再次被指控内容包括歧视以及工作环 境不安全等问题。此前，台积电在美国面临歧视和敌视非东亚裔员工和性骚扰等多项指控，被提起集体 诉讼，相关官司已进入开庭审理。 据报道，近日有17名原告对台积电提起集体诉讼，并提交了超过160页的指控。一名为台积电人力资部 门工作的加州女性表示，台积电偏好台湾地区与中国大陆员工。多位原告声称，他们遭遇带有敌意的工 作环境，台积电赶走美国员工，并以外籍工人取代。 对此，台积电回应表示："我们的政策是不在法庭文件以外对诉讼发表评论。" 台积电去年初表示，将在日本南部的熊本县建设第二家工厂。这是该公司在日本一项200亿美元投资计 划的一部分，日本政府已承诺为该计划提供超过80亿美元的支持。 台积电首家日本工厂于去年秋天开始为丰田等客户生产芯片。第二家工厂的建设最初定于今年年初动 工。台积电董事长魏哲家6月份表示，由于工厂当地的交通拥堵情况严重，建厂时间将略有推迟。 报道称，熟悉台积电计划的人士表示，该公司第二座日本工厂的建设可能会进一步推迟，开工时间已无 法准确预测。 台积电频频在海外传出坏消息，与民进党当局的"媚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents the market capitalization rankings of the top 50 Chinese technology and internet companies as of July 8, 2025, highlighting significant players in the industry and their respective valuations [1]. Group 1: Top Companies by Market Capitalization - TSMC leads the list with a market capitalization of approximately $11,885.95 million [3]. - Tencent Holdings follows with a valuation of about $5,867.71 million [3]. - Alibaba ranks third with a market cap of $2,535.66 million [3]. - Xiaomi Group is positioned fourth with a market capitalization of $1,935.90 million [3]. Group 2: Additional Notable Companies - JD.com is ranked eighth with a market cap of $461.57 million [4]. - SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) is close behind at $456.82 million, ranking ninth [4]. - Kuaishou is in the tenth position with a valuation of $356.39 million [4]. - Tencent Music and Baidu are also notable, with market caps of $310.40 million and $308.67 million, respectively [4]. Group 3: Emerging Players - Li Auto and Beike are valued at $286.24 million and $216.73 million, respectively, indicating their growing presence in the market [4]. - Xpeng Motors and iFlytek have market caps of $170.73 million and $149.98 million, showcasing their potential in the automotive and AI sectors [4]. - Other companies like Zhongtong Express and Baoson Software are also making strides with valuations of $143.32 million and $94.87 million [4]. Group 4: Market Trends - The rankings reflect the competitive landscape of the Chinese technology sector, with significant fluctuations in market capitalizations among various companies [1]. - The data is calculated based on the daily market values, indicating the dynamic nature of the industry [6].

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源：内容编译自communicationstoday。 位于首尔东大门区的辉经工业高中曾经熙熙攘攘，如今更名为首尔半导体高中，正准备迎接一次重大 的定位转变。在李明博政府大力推行职业教育的鼎盛时期，该校招生人数曾高达2500人。如今，学生 人数仅剩80人。面临关闭，该校正在转型为半导体高中，计划明年招收64名新生。 该校新任校长池宇中曾任三星电子高管，负责管理印度和埃及的工厂。但池宇中面临的前景一片黯 淡。尽管政府提供预算支持，但这些资金几乎无法支付人员成本，甚至连购买二手半导体设备的空间 都有限。寻找合格的教师更是雪上加霜。该校提供的时薪不高，最高可达5万韩元（37美元），但经验 丰富的专业人士是否愿意以这样的薪水授课仍不确定。即使愿意，根据现行教育部规定，除非持有正 式教师资格证书，否则不得留校—一而拥有教育背景的半导体专业人士几乎不具备教师资格证书。 为了吸引学生，学校提供宿舍。然而，由于监管方面的限制，建造一座3300平方米（35521平方英 尺）的宿舍可能需要长达四年的时间。 自20世纪80年代以来，半导体一直是韩国经济的基石。然而，韩国只有六所半导 ...

Company Performance - TSMC's stock closed at $229.17, reflecting a -2.4% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming compared to the S&P 500, which lost 0.79% [1] - Over the past month, TSMC shares have gained 14.44%, outperforming the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 7.88% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.22% [1] Earnings Projections - TSMC's projected earnings per share (EPS) for the upcoming earnings disclosure is $2.32, indicating a 56.76% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate for TSMC's revenue is $30.05 billion, reflecting a 44.32% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - For the full year, earnings are projected at $9.28 per share and revenue at $116.93 billion, showing increases of +31.82% and +29.8% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for TSMC indicate positive sentiment regarding the company's business operations and profit generation capabilities [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which considers estimate changes, currently ranks TSMC as 2 (Buy), with a historical average annual return of +25% for stocks rated 1 since 1988 [6] Valuation Metrics - TSMC is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 25.31, which aligns with the industry's Forward P/E of 25.31 [7] - The PEG ratio for TSMC is 1.22, matching the average PEG ratio of the Semiconductor - Circuit Foundry industry [7] Industry Context - The Semiconductor - Circuit Foundry industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 2, placing it in the top 1% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

半导体行业深度跟踪 TMT 及中小盘/电子 进入 25Q2 以来，海外对国内半导体先进制程代工、算力芯片等出口管制仍趋 严，但在此背景下国内先进制程产能和良率持续提升，国内沐曦和摩尔线程招 股书均强调国内先进代工、HBM 和 2.5D 封装等供应链自主可控提速，部分半 导体设备/材料等厂商 25Q2 签单和业绩增长趋势向好。同时，国内半导体其他 环节如存储/模拟/MCU 等细分领域景气度持续回暖，部分 SoC 厂商指引下游需 求依然旺盛。建议关注国内自主可控提速的半导体代工/设备/材料/零部件/算力 芯片等领域、景气周期边际复苏叠加创新加速的存储/SoC/模拟/材料等板块， 同时建议关注各科创指数和半导体指数核心成分股。 2、库存端：手机链相对稳定 PC 链环比仍有提升，功率类库存望达周期峰值。 全球手机链芯片大厂 25Q1 库存环比微降/库存周转天数环比提升，PC 链芯片 厂商 25Q1 库存环比微增/库存周转天数环比下降，英特尔表示整个行业都采 取了更为保守的库存策略，AMD 表示游戏厂商启动库存补货周期。全球模拟 芯片厂商库存 25Q1 环比仍有增长，TI 表示所有终端客户库存处于低位。功 率类芯片公司 ...