Core Insights - TSMC continues to dominate the global foundry market with a market share of 71% in Q2 2023, up from 68% in Q1 2023 and 65% year-over-year [1][3] - The overall foundry market sales increased by 33% year-over-year, driven by AI demand and subsidies in China, with TSMC capturing most of this growth [3] - Intel has announced the mass production of 1.8nm chips, marking a significant advancement in the competitive landscape of advanced chip manufacturing [5][6] Market Share and Competition - TSMC holds a commanding lead in the pure foundry market, with Samsung Electronics in second place at 8%, having lost 1 percentage point from the previous quarter and 2 percentage points year-over-year [3][4] - SMIC ranks third with a 5% market share, also down by 1 percentage point, while UMC and GlobalFoundries follow with 5% and 4% respectively [4] - The foundry market is expected to continue growing, with advanced process utilization and overall wafer shipments projected to rise [4][7] Technological Advancements - TSMC's growth is attributed to the ramp-up of 3nm production and high utilization rates of 4nm and 5nm processes to meet AI GPU demand [3] - Intel's new Panther Lake CPU architecture, based on the 18A process node, is set to be produced in Arizona, indicating a shift in the competitive dynamics of chip manufacturing [5][6] - The industry is witnessing a focus on advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS, which enhance chip performance and efficiency [3][8] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The global foundry market is projected to grow from $125.56 billion in 2023 to $171.7 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.99%, driven by demand in automotive, aerospace, and industrial sectors [8][10] - Governments are playing a significant role in reshaping the foundry landscape through subsidies aimed at localizing semiconductor manufacturing [9][10] - The integration of automation and digitalization in foundry processes is expected to improve yield and energy efficiency, positioning companies that invest in these areas for future growth [10]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, with the S&P 500 index falling by 2.71% to 6552.51 points, marking the largest single-day decline since April [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index decreased by 3.56% to 22204.43 points, also the largest drop since April [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.9% to 45479.6 points [1] Commodity and Asset Performance - Crude oil and metals faced severe losses, with WTI crude oil dropping over 4%, nearing its lowest point of the year [4] - Copper prices fell by 4.5%, while spot gold rose above $4000 per ounce [4] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by nearly 8 basis points [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, with intraday losses exceeding 10% [5] Investor Sentiment and Market Risks - Analysts noted that the recent market downturn was anticipated due to prior gains since April, indicating a risk of substantial adjustments in the U.S. stock market [5] - The sentiment was further dampened by comments from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget regarding the government shutdown and employee layoffs [5] Stock Performance of Major Companies - Major tech stocks saw declines, including Nvidia down 4.89%, Microsoft down 2.19%, and Apple down 3.45% [6] - Post-market trading also reflected declines for tech giants, with Nvidia, Tesla, and Oracle all dropping over 2% [7] Chinese Stocks Impact - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 6.10%, with Alibaba down 8.45% and JD down 6.24% [9] Company-Specific News - Tesla launched a lower-priced version of the Model Y in Europe, priced at €39,990 (approximately $46,304), aimed at boosting demand in a sluggish market [10] - U.S. fertilizer producer Mosaic's stock dropped by 9.24% due to operational disruptions at its phosphate plant, resulting in lower-than-expected production and sales [11] - A coalition of global banks, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, announced plans to explore the issuance of a stablecoin backed by reserves [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant downturn, referred to as "Black Friday," with major indices suffering substantial losses due to rising uncertainties and macroeconomic concerns [2][4][10]. Market Performance - On October 10, U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones dropping by 1.9%, the Nasdaq plunging by 3.56%, and the S&P 500 declining by 2.71% [4]. - Major tech stocks also faced heavy losses, with TSMC ADR down over 6%, Broadcom and Tesla down over 5%, and Nvidia and Amazon down over 4% [6]. - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. were affected as well, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling over 6% [6]. Global Market Impact - European markets also saw declines, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 1.75% and major indices in Germany, France, and Italy dropping over 1% [7]. - Commodities like WTI crude oil fell over 4%, nearing yearly lows, while Bitcoin experienced a drop of over 13% [7]. Investor Behavior - The uncertainty in the market led to a surge in demand for protective derivatives, with investors flocking to safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds [8]. - Gold prices rose over 1%, surpassing $4000 per ounce, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.034% [8]. Macroeconomic Indicators - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October was reported at 55, the lowest since May, indicating stagnant consumer sentiment [12]. - Approximately 63% of respondents expect unemployment to rise next year, and over two-thirds anticipate inflation to exceed income growth [12]. Government Actions - The U.S. government shutdown has escalated, with the Trump administration initiating large-scale permanent layoffs of federal employees, marking a departure from previous practices during shutdowns [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's stock price has experienced a significant decline of 7.84% over two days, raising concerns among investors about the underlying reasons [1] Group 1: TSMC's Market Position - TSMC is a major player in the global semiconductor industry, and its movements serve as a market barometer [1] - The company's plans to expand manufacturing in the U.S. have sparked concerns about the potential relocation of Taiwan's semiconductor industry [1] - The Taiwanese leadership has publicly expressed support for the U.S., highlighting TSMC's strategic importance to American semiconductor competitiveness [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Intel is actively enhancing its wafer foundry capabilities to compete with TSMC [1] - Despite increasing competition, tech companies, including OpenAI, continue to prefer collaboration with TSMC to meet rising demand [1] - The industry maintains confidence in TSMC's technological advantages and stability despite external competitive pressures [1] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to carefully assess TSMC's long-term strategy and potential investment opportunities amid these changes [2] - While the U.S. pushes for domestic manufacturing, TSMC remains the preferred choice in the industry for the short term [2] - Future investor focus should be on TSMC's global developments and interactions with U.S. policy changes for informed investment decisions [2]

Core Insights - Wall Street is entering earnings season with reports from major financial institutions such as Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan expected [1] - Despite a significant sell-off on Friday, there is an expectation that the market's multi-year rally is not over [1] Earnings Reports - Earnings season begins on Tuesday with Blackrock, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs reporting; all three have performed well this year and are not heavily impacted by the trade war [3] - Johnson & Johnson and Domino's Pizza will also report on Tuesday, with expectations for Johnson & Johnson to have the best quarter in its sector, while Domino's may miss estimates [4] - On Wednesday, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Abbott Laboratories will report; Morgan Stanley has shown positive results recently, and Abbott is considered reliable [4] - Thursday will see earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor, CSX, and Charles Schwab, with positive figures expected from Taiwan Semiconductor, which supplies chips to Nvidia and AMD [6] - American Express and SLB will report on Friday; American Express shares typically decline post-earnings, while SLB management is known for transparency [7] Market Context - The week is complicated by a sharp decline in Treasury yields, which usually indicates better economic conditions ahead, but current sentiment is negative [2] - Salesforce's annual conference begins on Monday, and clarity on President Trump's new tariffs on China is anticipated, following threats of a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese imports [2]

Since my last coverage in June Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM ) stock has jumped by almost 40%, well outpacing the market as the investors have recognized its leadership in the 3nm, 5nm, andHi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business sch ...

Since my last coverage in June Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM ) stock has jumped by almost 40%, well outpacing the market as the investors have recognized its leadership in the 3nm, 5nm, andHi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business sch ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened slightly higher but then experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.94%, S&P 500 down 1.32%, and Nasdaq down 1.76% [1][2]. Sector Performance - Chip stocks led the decline, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 4% in the morning session. AMD fell over 7%, Micron Technology dropped about 6%, and TSMC's U.S. shares fell about 4% [2]. - Among the tech giants, Tesla fell over 4%, Nvidia dropped over 3%, and Apple decreased by over 2% [2]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 3.8%, with several popular Chinese stocks declining significantly [2][3]. Commodity Prices - International oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude oil dropping over 3% to $59.34 per barrel, marking the lowest level since early May. Brent crude oil also fell by 3% to $63.14 per barrel [5][6]. - Spot gold prices increased slightly, currently at $4010.44 per ounce, with a rise of 0.86% [6]. Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, with a previous value of 55.1. The index reflects mixed views on personal financial situations and future business conditions [6][7]. - Inflation expectations for the next year decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.7% [7].

智通财经APP获悉，周五，芯片股盘中暴跌，AMD(AMD.US)一度跌超7%。截至发稿，AMD跌幅缩窄 至5.7%，英伟达(NVDA.US)跌超1.5%，美光科技(MU.US)跌超3.7%，台积电(TSM.US)跌超3.4%，博通 (AVGO.US)跌超2.4%，英特尔(INTC.US)跌0.8%。消息面上，特朗普威胁将对从中国进口的商品实 施"大规模关税上调"，理由是中国计划对稀土出口实施新的管制措施。 ...

Core Insights - The overall sentiment for Q3 earnings is generally positive, particularly driven by mega-cap tech companies and the AI sector [2][3]. Group 1: JP Morgan - JP Morgan is expected to report Q3 earnings on October 14, with projected earnings climbing 10.5% to $4.83 per share and revenue rising 5% to $45.47 billion [4]. - Analysts anticipate strong performance in investment banking, trading, and asset wealth management categories [4]. - The bank is focusing on AI-related cost savings, deploying AI agents for various tasks [5][8]. - There are concerns about potential delinquencies and late payments in the lending sector, although JP Morgan has been performing well overall [7][8]. - The stock is currently below the 21-day moving average, with potential for a bounce if earnings exceed expectations [10][11]. Group 2: Interactive Brokers - Interactive Brokers is set to report Q3 earnings on October 16, with earnings expected to jump 23% to $0.54 per share and revenue projected to rise 11% to $1.365 billion [16]. - Strong trading volume is noted, and there is interest in how Fed rate cuts may impact margin income [17]. - The company is expanding into prediction markets, which could provide new growth opportunities [18]. - The stock has shown solid performance, recently breaking out of a cup base [19][20]. Group 3: Taiwan Semiconductor - Taiwan Semiconductor is scheduled to report on October 16, with Q3 earnings expected to climb 34% to $2.62 per share and revenue projected to rise 36% to $32.07 billion [25]. - Analysts are looking for guidance on AI and mobile chips, as well as potential price increases for leading-edge nodes [26]. - The company has benefited from strong sales and positive comments from Nvidia's CEO [27]. - Guidance on capital expenditure is crucial, as Taiwan Semiconductor is a major buyer of capital equipment [28]. Group 4: Other Financials - Wells Fargo is set to report on October 14, but has not performed as well as its peers [39]. - Goldman Sachs is also due on October 14, with expectations of solid earnings driven by investment banking [40][42]. - BlackRock is reporting on October 14 and is near a buy point, but its relative strength line has been flat [43]. - Charles Schwab is expected to report on October 16, with earnings growth but weaker revenue performance compared to Interactive Brokers [46]. - American Express is scheduled for October 17, showing high single-digit revenue growth and decent earnings growth [48].