Core Insights - TSMC continues to dominate the global foundry market with a market share of 71% in Q2 2023, up from 68% in Q1 2023 and 65% year-over-year [1][3] - The overall pure foundry market sales increased by 33% year-over-year, driven by AI demand and subsidies from China, with TSMC capturing most of this growth [3] - Intel has announced the mass production of 1.8nm chips, marking a significant advancement in the competitive landscape of advanced chip manufacturing [5][6] Market Share and Competition - TSMC's market share growth is attributed to the ramp-up of 3nm production and high utilization rates of 4nm and 5nm processes to meet AI GPU demand [3] - Samsung Electronics holds the second position with an 8% market share, but has seen a decline of 1 percentage point from Q1 2023 and 2 percentage points year-over-year [3] - SMIC ranks third with a 5% market share, also down by 1 percentage point from the previous quarter, benefiting from Chinese government subsidies [3][4] Future Projections - The foundry market is expected to continue growing, with advanced process utilization and overall wafer shipments projected to rise in the second half of 2025 [4][7] - Credence Research forecasts the global foundry industry will grow from $125.56 billion in 2023 to $171.7 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.99% [8][10] Technological Advancements - Intel's new Panther Lake CPU architecture, based on the 18A process node, is set to be produced in Arizona and will be branded under the Intel Core Ultra series [5] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards advanced packaging technologies, such as CoWoS, to enhance chip design efficiency and performance [8][10] Government Influence - Governments in the US, China, and EU are providing substantial subsidies to promote local semiconductor manufacturing and reduce reliance on overseas foundries [9][10] - The European Chips Act aims to strengthen semiconductor projects in Germany, France, and Italy, particularly in automotive and industrial IoT applications [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Advanced packaging has become a critical battleground for foundries and packaging companies amid the slowdown of Moore's Law and the explosive demand for AI/HPC solutions. Major players globally, including TSMC, Samsung, ASE, and domestic firms like JCET, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huatian Technology, are accelerating capacity expansion to seize this key industry opportunity in the coming years [1]. Group 1: Market Trends and Projections - The global advanced chip packaging market is expected to grow from $50.38 billion in 2025 to $79.85 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% [1]. - The demand for high-performance, low-power packaging solutions is driven by AI large models, autonomous driving, cloud computing, and edge computing [1]. Group 2: TSMC's Strategy and Expansion - TSMC's advanced packaging revenue is projected to exceed 10% in 2024, surpassing ASE to become the largest packaging supplier globally, driven by the surge in CoWoS demand [3]. - TSMC plans to invest an additional $100 billion in the U.S., including two advanced packaging plants in Arizona, expected to start construction in the second half of next year and enter mass production by 2028 [5]. - TSMC is set to launch CoWoS-L in 2026 and SoW-X in 2027, enhancing its capabilities significantly in the AI/HPC era [6]. Group 3: Samsung's Cautious Approach - Samsung has adopted a more cautious stance compared to TSMC, previously shelving a $7 billion advanced packaging facility due to uncertain customer demand [7]. - Recent contracts with Tesla and Apple highlight the necessity for Samsung to reconsider its advanced packaging investments [7][8]. - Samsung's integrated model of "memory + foundry + packaging" positions it well for future demand once customer needs become clearer [8]. Group 4: ASE's Expansion and Technological Advancements - ASE is enhancing its advanced packaging capabilities in Kaohsiung, focusing on CoWoS, SoIC, and FOPLP technologies [9]. - ASE's new K18B factory in Kaohsiung will serve AI and HPC demands, while the K28 factory will expand CoWoS testing capacity [9][10]. - ASE's technology evolution includes advancements in 3D Advanced RDL technology, which is crucial for various applications [10][11]. Group 5: Amkor's U.S. Investment - Amkor is expanding its advanced packaging facility in Peoria, Arizona, with a total investment of $2 billion, expected to create over 2,000 jobs [13]. - The new facility will primarily support TSMC's CoWoS and InFO technologies, establishing a local closed-loop for wafer manufacturing and packaging [14]. - Amkor's expansion aligns with U.S. semiconductor policies, emphasizing the need for a complete backend capability to maintain competitiveness in AI and HPC [14]. Group 6: Domestic Players' Development - JCET, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huatian Technology are rapidly advancing in the advanced packaging sector, each developing unique strategies [15]. - JCET is focusing on various advanced packaging technologies and plans to invest 8.5 billion yuan in 2025, targeting high-performance applications [16][17]. - Tongfu Microelectronics has deepened its partnership with AMD, becoming its largest packaging supplier, and is making significant progress in large-size FCBGA technology [18][19]. - Huatian Technology is exploring CPO technology and has achieved significant growth in revenue, indicating a shift towards system integration in advanced packaging [20][21].

Core Insights - The investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares, with a balanced portfolio of approximately 50% in each [1] - The investment strategy involves identifying stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, their leverage, and to compare financial ratios with sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Investment Strategy - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months [1] - A professional background check is conducted on each insider who purchased shares after a recent sell-off to ensure credibility [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but may also invest in companies from less stable economies [1]

Core Insights - TSMC continues to dominate the global foundry market with a market share of 71%, increasing by 3 percentage points from the previous quarter and 6 percentage points year-over-year [2][4] - The overall pure foundry market sales grew by 33% year-over-year, driven by the expansion of the AI industry and supportive policies from the Chinese government [4] - Samsung Electronics holds the second position with an 8% market share, but has seen a decline of 1 percentage point from the previous quarter and 2 percentage points year-over-year [4][6] Group 1: Market Performance - TSMC's market share in the pure foundry market reached 71% in Q2 2023, up from 68% in Q1 2023 and 65% in Q2 2022 [2][4] - The growth in the foundry market is largely attributed to the demand for AI-related semiconductors and the impact of China's subsidy policies [4] - Samsung's market share decreased to 8%, maintaining its second position due to the recovery in smartphone and consumer device markets [4][6] Group 2: Competitor Analysis - SMIC ranks third with a 5% market share, experiencing a decline of 1 percentage point from the previous quarter, but continues to benefit from government subsidies [6] - UMC and GlobalFoundries follow SMIC with market shares of 5% and 4% respectively [6] - Counterpoint Research predicts that the utilization rates of advanced processes and overall wafer shipments will continue to rise in the second half of 2025 [6]

Core Insights - UBS predicts a significant increase in NVIDIA's demand for advanced packaging, specifically CoWoS, driven by the success of the Blackwell series and upcoming Rubin AI chips, with a projected demand of 678,000 wafers in 2026, a nearly 40% increase from 2025 [1][2] - The overall GPU production is expected to exceed 7.4 million units, highlighting the strong demand for high-end chip manufacturing in the global AI industry [1] Group 1 - The growth in CoWoS demand is primarily driven by two key product lines: the strong market performance of the Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra series, which is expected to see a 30% quarter-on-quarter increase in shipments [2] - The next-generation AI chip architecture, Rubin, is set to begin production ramp-up in early 2026, becoming a crucial new driver for demand [2] - The newly launched Rubin CPX platform, focused on AI inference tasks, relies on CoWoS-L packaging technology, further intensifying demand as enterprise clients show increasing interest in inference-specific hardware [2] Group 2 - CoWoS is a critical component in high-end AI chip manufacturing, and its supply capacity directly impacts the pace of global AI industry development [3] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing explosive growth in demand for advanced packaging, not only from NVIDIA but also from other chip manufacturers [3] - TSMC, as the main supplier of CoWoS capacity, is currently facing significant capacity pressures, making it challenging to meet the semiconductor and packaging order demands from tech giants, highlighting a critical supply-demand imbalance in the industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Trump regarding a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 has triggered a significant sell-off in global capital markets, particularly affecting U.S. tech stocks and Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [1][10] Market Impact - U.S. stock markets faced their most severe challenge of the year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 878.82 points (1.9%), the S&P 500 falling 182.6 points (2.71%), and the Nasdaq Composite plunging 3.56%, marking its largest single-day decline since April [2][4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 6.1%, with a cumulative weekly decline of 8.37%, indicating a sharp downturn in Chinese stocks [1][8] Sector Performance - The technology sector was particularly hard hit, with major tech stocks experiencing significant declines: TSMC ADR down over 6%, Nvidia, Amazon down over 4%, and Apple, Meta down over 3% [4][7] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw a substantial drop of 6.32%, with ARM down over 9% and AMD, Qualcomm down over 7% [7] Chinese Stocks - Chinese companies listed in the U.S. faced a dual blow, with notable declines: NIO and Kingsoft Cloud down over 10%, Bilibili down over 9%, and Baidu, Alibaba, and XPeng down over 8% [1][9] - The FTSE A50 futures also suffered, dropping over 4%, suggesting potential pressure on A-shares at the upcoming opening [9] Broader Economic Context - The market turmoil is compounded by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has entered its 10th day, leading to significant layoffs of federal employees, marking a departure from previous practices during government shutdowns [10]

Core Insights - TSMC continues to dominate the global foundry market with a market share of 71% in Q2 2023, up from 68% in Q1 2023 and 65% year-over-year [1][3] - The overall foundry market sales increased by 33% year-over-year, driven by AI demand and subsidies in China, with TSMC capturing most of this growth [3] - Intel has announced the mass production of 1.8nm chips, marking a significant advancement in the competitive landscape of advanced chip manufacturing [5][6] Market Share and Competition - TSMC holds a commanding lead in the pure foundry market, with Samsung Electronics in second place at 8%, having lost 1 percentage point from the previous quarter and 2 percentage points year-over-year [3][4] - SMIC ranks third with a 5% market share, also down by 1 percentage point, while UMC and GlobalFoundries follow with 5% and 4% respectively [4] - The foundry market is expected to continue growing, with advanced process utilization and overall wafer shipments projected to rise [4][7] Technological Advancements - TSMC's growth is attributed to the ramp-up of 3nm production and high utilization rates of 4nm and 5nm processes to meet AI GPU demand [3] - Intel's new Panther Lake CPU architecture, based on the 18A process node, is set to be produced in Arizona, indicating a shift in the competitive dynamics of chip manufacturing [5][6] - The industry is witnessing a focus on advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS, which enhance chip performance and efficiency [3][8] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The global foundry market is projected to grow from $125.56 billion in 2023 to $171.7 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.99%, driven by demand in automotive, aerospace, and industrial sectors [8][10] - Governments are playing a significant role in reshaping the foundry landscape through subsidies aimed at localizing semiconductor manufacturing [9][10] - The integration of automation and digitalization in foundry processes is expected to improve yield and energy efficiency, positioning companies that invest in these areas for future growth [10]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, with the S&P 500 index falling by 2.71% to 6552.51 points, marking the largest single-day decline since April [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index decreased by 3.56% to 22204.43 points, also the largest drop since April [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.9% to 45479.6 points [1] Commodity and Asset Performance - Crude oil and metals faced severe losses, with WTI crude oil dropping over 4%, nearing its lowest point of the year [4] - Copper prices fell by 4.5%, while spot gold rose above $4000 per ounce [4] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by nearly 8 basis points [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, with intraday losses exceeding 10% [5] Investor Sentiment and Market Risks - Analysts noted that the recent market downturn was anticipated due to prior gains since April, indicating a risk of substantial adjustments in the U.S. stock market [5] - The sentiment was further dampened by comments from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget regarding the government shutdown and employee layoffs [5] Stock Performance of Major Companies - Major tech stocks saw declines, including Nvidia down 4.89%, Microsoft down 2.19%, and Apple down 3.45% [6] - Post-market trading also reflected declines for tech giants, with Nvidia, Tesla, and Oracle all dropping over 2% [7] Chinese Stocks Impact - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 6.10%, with Alibaba down 8.45% and JD down 6.24% [9] Company-Specific News - Tesla launched a lower-priced version of the Model Y in Europe, priced at €39,990 (approximately $46,304), aimed at boosting demand in a sluggish market [10] - U.S. fertilizer producer Mosaic's stock dropped by 9.24% due to operational disruptions at its phosphate plant, resulting in lower-than-expected production and sales [11] - A coalition of global banks, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, announced plans to explore the issuance of a stablecoin backed by reserves [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant downturn, referred to as "Black Friday," with major indices suffering substantial losses due to rising uncertainties and macroeconomic concerns [2][4][10]. Market Performance - On October 10, U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones dropping by 1.9%, the Nasdaq plunging by 3.56%, and the S&P 500 declining by 2.71% [4]. - Major tech stocks also faced heavy losses, with TSMC ADR down over 6%, Broadcom and Tesla down over 5%, and Nvidia and Amazon down over 4% [6]. - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. were affected as well, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling over 6% [6]. Global Market Impact - European markets also saw declines, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 1.75% and major indices in Germany, France, and Italy dropping over 1% [7]. - Commodities like WTI crude oil fell over 4%, nearing yearly lows, while Bitcoin experienced a drop of over 13% [7]. Investor Behavior - The uncertainty in the market led to a surge in demand for protective derivatives, with investors flocking to safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds [8]. - Gold prices rose over 1%, surpassing $4000 per ounce, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.034% [8]. Macroeconomic Indicators - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October was reported at 55, the lowest since May, indicating stagnant consumer sentiment [12]. - Approximately 63% of respondents expect unemployment to rise next year, and over two-thirds anticipate inflation to exceed income growth [12]. Government Actions - The U.S. government shutdown has escalated, with the Trump administration initiating large-scale permanent layoffs of federal employees, marking a departure from previous practices during shutdowns [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's stock price has experienced a significant decline of 7.84% over two days, raising concerns among investors about the underlying reasons [1] Group 1: TSMC's Market Position - TSMC is a major player in the global semiconductor industry, and its movements serve as a market barometer [1] - The company's plans to expand manufacturing in the U.S. have sparked concerns about the potential relocation of Taiwan's semiconductor industry [1] - The Taiwanese leadership has publicly expressed support for the U.S., highlighting TSMC's strategic importance to American semiconductor competitiveness [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Intel is actively enhancing its wafer foundry capabilities to compete with TSMC [1] - Despite increasing competition, tech companies, including OpenAI, continue to prefer collaboration with TSMC to meet rising demand [1] - The industry maintains confidence in TSMC's technological advantages and stability despite external competitive pressures [1] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to carefully assess TSMC's long-term strategy and potential investment opportunities amid these changes [2] - While the U.S. pushes for domestic manufacturing, TSMC remains the preferred choice in the industry for the short term [2] - Future investor focus should be on TSMC's global developments and interactions with U.S. policy changes for informed investment decisions [2]