今日重点推荐 2025 年 12 月 26 日 京东（JD）点评：国补高基数效应显现，新业务亏损预计收窄 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3960 | 0.47 | 2.32 | 2.15 | | 深证综指 | 2534 | 0.63 | 4.49 | 3.81 | | 风格指数 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (％) | | | | | 大盘指数 | 0.23 | 3.26 | 17.49 | | 中盘指数 | 0.44 | 6.33 | 26.92 | | 小盘指数 | 0.9 | 5.04 | 22.98 | | 涨幅居前 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | 行业(％) | | | | | 航天装备Ⅱ | 8.45 | 52.67 | 89.57 | | 电机Ⅱ | 3.9 | 6.47 | 38.59 | | 造纸Ⅱ | 3.68 | 9.68 | 20 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 京东 (JD) ——国补高基数效应显现，新业务亏损预计收窄 上 市 公 司 互联网电商 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 买入（维持） | 1×× × m | | --- | | OFF | 证 券 研 究 报 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（美元） | 29.08 | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23561.84 | | 52 周最高/最低（美元） | 45.12/28.21 | | 美股市值（亿美元） | 463 | | 流通股（亿股） | 28.7 | | 汇率（人民币/美元） | 7.01 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,302,344 | 1,402,107 | 1,504,110 | | 同比增长率（%） | 3.7 | 6.8 ...

Core Insights - JD.com announced a significant investment of 22 billion yuan over the next five years to build 150,000 "Xiao Ge Homes" for delivery workers, utilizing leasing, self-construction, and housing security funds as support methods [2][18] - The initiative aims to provide housing security for delivery riders and couriers, addressing their needs and enhancing their stability in urban environments [5][21] Group 1: Employee Welfare and Retention - JD.com has already provided 28,000 housing units for frontline employees, with the new goal indicating that at least 200,000 employees will benefit from this initiative in the future [5][21] - The company emphasizes that retaining employees is crucial for operational success, as the quality of service and order timeliness depend on the workforce [6][24] - By meeting the genuine needs of employees, JD.com aims to create a sustainable workforce that can drive the growth of its delivery services [8][24] Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Positioning - JD.com is redefining the delivery business model from a focus on algorithms and subsidies to a model centered on supply chain efficiency and service quality [10][26] - The company leverages its established supply chain advantages, which have been built since 2007, to enhance its competitive edge in the local lifestyle market [10][26][27] - JD.com's approach contrasts with other platforms that primarily focus on short-term gains through subsidies and commission-based revenue [9][31] Group 3: Long-term Vision and Industry Impact - The investment in employee welfare is seen as a long-term strategy that could reshape the competitive landscape of local services, moving away from cost-cutting measures [15][31] - JD.com’s commitment to employee well-being is expected to foster a positive cycle where improved service quality leads to greater customer satisfaction and loyalty [31][32] - The initiative serves as a reminder to the industry that true competitive advantage lies in creating value rather than merely focusing on immediate profits [15][32]

文/耿朴凡 刘强东掌舵下的"京东系"，迎来第六家上市公司。12月11日，京东工业在历经两年半、四次递表冲刺后，正式登陆港交所。京东工业此次IPO发行价为 14.1港元/股，盘中一度破发。截至收盘，京东工业维持了发行价，最新市值377.48亿港元。 来源：宿迁发布 京东工业登陆港交所 京东工业起源于京东集团2013年面向企业客户开展的企业业务，主要是为了满足企业客户综合一站式采购的需求，2017年成为京东集团的独立 业务单元，2018年10月以京东一级类目形式正式上线，2019年11月正式注册升级为子公司。 如今，京东工业已崛起为国内头部工业供应链技术与服务提供商。 招股书显示，靠着涵盖80个产品类别的超8100万个SKU（库存保有单位），京东工业在2022年至2024年实现营收141.35亿元、173.36亿元、204 亿元和103亿元， 三年间年复合增长率达20.13%。净利润方面，在2022年亏损约13亿元的情况下，2023年扭亏为盈，2024年净利润飙升至7.62 亿元。 今年上半年，京东工业实现营收103亿元，同比增长18.9%；实现净利润4.5亿元，同比增长55.2%。 业绩持续向好的京东工业，上市 ...

Core Points - JD.com delivery service experienced a bug in the "Sui Xin Tun" feature, allowing users to retain 99 out of 100 purchased vouchers after requesting a full refund [1] - The company announced it would cover all losses incurred by merchants due to this issue, expressing gratitude towards users who voluntarily returned vouchers [3][4] - The "Sui Xin Tun" feature is designed for flexible promotions on frequently purchased items, allowing users to buy vouchers that can be redeemed later, with options for refunds [4] Company Developments - On November 17, JD.com launched an independent delivery app that integrates various local life services, enhancing user convenience for frequent food delivery [7] - The new app connects with JD.com’s review system, providing users with comprehensive consumption references for dining and shopping [7] - The "AI All-Net Review" model was introduced, which analyzes millions of reviews daily to generate objective content, marking a significant advancement in user feedback systems [7]

Core Insights - The e-commerce landscape in November 2025 saw significant developments across various sectors, including digital retail, cross-border e-commerce, and logistics technology, as highlighted by the NetEase Research Center [1][4]. E-commerce Developments - The "Double 11" shopping festival showcased a shift towards rational consumption, with major platforms like Taobao, Meituan, and JD.com focusing on physical convenience stores as new battlegrounds [27]. - JD.com reported a 24.7% year-on-year increase in active users during the "Double 11" period, indicating strong consumer engagement [4]. - The total sales during the "Double 11" event reached 1.695 trillion yuan, with nearly 600 brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales [4]. Cross-border E-commerce - Douyin's e-commerce GMV is projected to exceed 4 trillion yuan for the year, surpassing JD.com and closely approaching Pinduoduo and Meituan [14][15]. - A global tightening of cross-border tax policies is reshaping the industry, as many countries are eliminating or significantly reducing tax exemptions for small packages [20]. Logistics and Technology - The logistics sector processed approximately 139.38 billion packages during the "Double 11" period, setting a new record for daily processing volume [37]. - JD Logistics has enhanced its logistics capabilities in preparation for the Black Friday sales, with a significant increase in goods stored in overseas warehouses [38]. Regulatory Changes - New regulations targeting "ghost stores" and trademark infringement are being implemented to improve the online shopping environment and protect consumer rights [12]. - The Chinese government has initiated a one-year suspension of trade sanctions between the U.S. and China, which may impact e-commerce dynamics [19]. Company Performance - JD Industrial reported a revenue of 14.1 billion yuan over eight months, reflecting an 18.9% year-on-year growth [33]. - Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew by 34% year-on-year to 39.824 billion yuan, driven by strong demand for AI-related products [35].

Core Insights - The article discusses the intense competition in the food delivery market, highlighting that there are no clear winners in the ongoing battle, particularly in Q3 2025, where both Alibaba and Meituan faced significant losses [4][10]. - Meituan's core local business segment reported a revenue decline of 2.8% year-on-year, resulting in an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan, marking its first loss since Q4 2022 [4][9]. - Alibaba's aggressive strategy led to a profit drop of approximately 30 billion yuan, with significant investments in subsidies that have nearly exhausted their planned 50 billion yuan budget [10]. Meituan's Performance - Meituan's operating profit for its core local business was 14.6 billion yuan in Q3 2024, contrasting sharply with a loss of 14.1 billion yuan in the same period this year, indicating a significant shift in financial performance [9]. - The increase in sales and marketing expenses by 90.9% to 35.9% of revenue reflects the high cost of maintaining market share amid fierce competition [9][10]. - Despite the losses, Meituan's average order value (AOV) remains significantly higher than competitors, with over 70% market share in orders above 30 yuan [10]. Competitive Landscape - The competition has intensified with new entrants and existing players like Alibaba and JD.com increasing their efforts in the food delivery and local services market [13]. - Douyin (TikTok) is emerging as a formidable competitor, with its life services projected to exceed 800 billion yuan in GTV by 2025, narrowing the gap with Meituan [13]. - The article notes that both Alibaba and Meituan are still in the process of optimizing their user experience (UE) and expanding their instant retail offerings [11][12]. New Business Developments - Meituan's new business segment saw a revenue increase of 15.9% year-on-year to 28 billion yuan, although operating losses increased by 24.5% to 1.3 billion yuan [17]. - The company is expanding its offline retail efforts, with initiatives like the "Happy Monkey" discount supermarket and "Little Elephant" supermarket gaining traction [18]. - Meituan's overseas business, particularly in Brazil, is set to launch in December, with significant investments aimed at capturing market share in a competitive landscape dominated by iFood [19][20]. Future Outlook - Meituan's management expresses confidence in maintaining efficiency and market share despite ongoing losses, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic focus [7][15]. - The company aims to leverage its strengths in high-value orders and continue exploring new opportunities in both domestic and international markets [10][20].

Core Insights - The article highlights the intense competition in the food delivery sector, indicating that there are no clear winners in the ongoing battle, particularly in Q3 2025, where major players like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com are facing significant challenges and losses [3][5][8]. Summary by Sections Food Delivery Battle - Alibaba's aggressive strategy led to a profit drop of approximately 30 billion yuan, gaining market share but lacking evidence of successful e-commerce synergy [3][8]. - Meituan experienced a decline in market share and reported an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan, marking its first loss since Q4 2022 [3][5]. - JD.com has reduced its investment in food delivery, focusing on user experience optimization instead [3]. Financial Performance - Meituan's core local business saw a significant shift, with operating profit dropping from 14.6 billion yuan to a loss of 14.1 billion yuan due to increased user incentives and marketing expenses [7]. - Meituan's sales costs rose by 23.7%, and marketing expenses surged by 90.9%, indicating a heavy reliance on subsidies to maintain market share [7]. - Alibaba's total profit dropped by 30 billion yuan in Q3, with a substantial portion of its planned 50 billion yuan subsidy nearly exhausted [8]. Market Dynamics - The competition has led to a significant change in market dynamics, with Alibaba and Meituan nearly equal in market share, while JD.com has lost about 8% [8]. - Both platforms are now focusing on high-value orders, with Meituan holding over 70% market share for orders above 30 yuan [8]. - The article notes that the intense competition has led to a temporary decrease in subsidy levels, allowing Meituan to regain some market share [8]. New Business Ventures - Meituan's new business segment reported a 15.9% revenue increase to 28 billion yuan, despite a 24.5% rise in operating losses [15]. - The company is expanding its offline retail efforts, with new stores like Xiaoxiang Supermarket and the discount store Happy Monkey [15]. - Meituan's overseas expansion continues, with Keeta achieving profitability in Hong Kong and launching operations in Brazil [16][18]. Future Outlook - Meituan's management expresses confidence in maintaining efficiency and market share despite ongoing losses [5][13]. - The company is preparing for a winter campaign to boost various metrics, including new store openings and promotional activities [12]. - The article concludes that while the core local business faces challenges, Meituan is committed to exploring new opportunities and maintaining its operational rhythm [18].

Core Insights - Meituan reported a significant net loss in Q3, marking the first operational loss in its core business in three years, primarily due to intensified subsidy wars in the industry [1] - The company's revenue for the quarter reached 95.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but the adjusted net loss amounted to 16 billion RMB [1][5] - Despite financial pressures, Meituan's user base continues to grow, with over 800 million transaction users and a significant increase in daily active users [1] Financial Performance - Meituan's core local commerce segment generated revenue of 67.4 billion RMB but incurred an operational loss of 14.1 billion RMB due to increased direct subsidies in the food delivery sector [1] - Sales costs surged by 23.7%, rising from 56.8 billion RMB in the same quarter last year to 70.3 billion RMB, with the cost-to-revenue ratio increasing from 60.7% to 73.6% [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was a loss of 14.8 billion RMB, reflecting the financial strain on the company [3] Market Competition - The local lifestyle sector is experiencing fierce competition, with various platforms like Alibaba's Gaode Map and JD.com launching initiatives to capture market share through substantial subsidies [5] - Recent reports indicate a cooling in the price war within the food delivery sector, with Alibaba's Taobao Flash Purchase entering an efficiency optimization phase [5] - Meituan's stock has declined by 32.42% year-to-date, reflecting the impact of these competitive pressures on its market performance [5]

Core Insights - JD Group has launched a series of initiatives including an independent JD Takeout app, JD Review, and JD True Ranking, indicating its intention to reshape the local lifestyle market and shift competition from price subsidies to user value [2][3] - The industry is transitioning into a phase of stock competition, with low online penetration in local lifestyle services, suggesting significant potential for digital transformation [2][3] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - The competition logic is being restructured, with platforms focusing on user experience rather than price wars, emphasizing who understands and serves users better [2][3] - Companies are moving from single-point competition to building open and symbiotic ecological platforms, relying on overall resilience and innovation for success [3] Group 2: Technological and Trust Factors - Technology, including AI and big data, is deeply integrated into the service chain, enabling personalized services through precise demand analysis, becoming a key competitive differentiator [3] - The value of trust systems is becoming prominent, with real reviews and transparent processes replacing traffic exposure as the basis for user decision-making [3] Group 3: Industry Evolution - JD's approach acts as a catalyst for the industry, moving away from subsidy-driven growth towards a focus on service quality, ultimately benefiting consumers and quality merchants [3][4] - The shift towards a value-oriented competition is guiding the local lifestyle sector from "wild growth" to "meticulous cultivation," with a focus on user value and building a win-win ecosystem [4]