Group 1 - Chinese concept stocks showed strength in pre-market trading on August 18, with notable gains in several companies [2] - Xunlei surged over 20%, while iQIYI increased by more than 16% [2] - Kingsoft Cloud rose over 4%, and other companies like ZTO Express, Xpeng Motors, and Miniso saw nearly 3% gains [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtong Express has entered a new phase of "human-machine collaboration" in delivery with the deployment of autonomous delivery vehicles in Shenzhen, which may enhance profitability for franchisees and impact the overall industry dynamics [1] Company Developments - Zhongtong Express's stock rose by 3.33% to HKD 161.4, with a trading volume of HKD 462 million [1] - The company has launched its first batch of end-terminal intelligent delivery devices at the Shuanglong site in Shenzhen, featuring autonomous vehicles equipped with multiple sensors for obstacle avoidance, traffic light recognition, and automatic parking [1] Industry Trends - According to Huayuan Securities, the use of autonomous vehicles could reduce costs by approximately HKD 0.11 per package in the transportation scenario from the site to the station, potentially improving profit margins across the supply chain [1] - The current trend of adopting autonomous vehicles is likened to the previous automation upgrades in distribution centers, suggesting that new technologies and capital expenditures may disrupt existing operational models and balance [1] - Companies with scale and profit advantages may accelerate transformation, leading to new cost advantages and changes in industry structure [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中通快递-W(02057)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.33%，报161.4港元，成交额4.62亿港 元。 消息面上，据深圳商报，8月15日，在中通快递深圳双龙网点的分拣场地，蓝白相间的快递无人车完成 扫码装货，沿着预设路线缓缓驶出，开启当天的配送任务。中通快递在深圳龙岗区布局的首批末端智能 配送设备，标志着中通快递双龙网点正式迈入"人机协同"配送新阶段。据中通快递深圳双龙网点业务经 理黄华柏介绍，此次使用的无人车搭载了激光雷达、高清摄像头等多传感器设备，具备自主避障、红绿 灯识别、自动泊车等功能，可适配小区、工业园区等多种场景。" 华源证券此前指出，无人车降本或将增厚加盟商盈利，根据测算，从网点-驿站运输的场景替换无人 车，降本幅度达到0.11元/票，或将改善产业链利润，间接影响快递企业总部报表。本轮无人车产业趋势 可类比上一轮分拨中心自动化升级趋势，新技术的诞生和新一轮的资本开支竞争，或将打破原有的运营 模式和平衡，考虑各快递企业总部现金流差异、加盟商盈利状况差异，具有规模优势和利润优势的企业 或加速变革，形成新的成本优势，进而加速行业格局的变化。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，本轮快递反内卷，一方面强调了快递企业作为反内卷的主 体，一方面强调了国家和地方邮管局的监管职责和执法能力，双管齐下。此次快递反内卷自上而下，且 广东省已率先落地，该行认为具有扩散效应，且在淡旺季衔接和社保新规背景下，快递反内卷具备持续 性，各主要快递上市公司业绩弹性大。 广东作为快递业务量占比较高的地区，2017年以来其快递业务量占全国业务量的份额保持在 24.33%-27.25%，其反内卷率先落地，有望对全国其他快递"产粮区"形成示范效应，从其他地方邮政局 的动作看，预计其他地区如浙江、福建等地区会一定程度的跟随涨价。 淡季涨价叠加社保新规，预计反内卷效果将在一定时期内持续 不同于以往年份的旺季涨价，今年快递行业在反内卷的推动下，淡季进行提价，而之后可以衔接旺季， 从需求端来看，此次反内卷效果具有一定持续性。最高人民法院强调依法参加社保是法定义务，新规自 9月1日起施行。该行以每人日均派件500票、按各地标准缴纳社保测算快递小哥全员缴纳社保后，对单 票的平均影响在6分钱。因此，从成本端看，若后续快递小哥全员缴纳社保后，快递加盟商的成本增 加，经营压力进一步提升，而反内 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtong Express has officially entered a new phase of "human-machine collaboration" in delivery with the deployment of autonomous delivery vehicles in Shenzhen's Longgang District, enhancing efficiency in logistics operations [2][3]. Group 1: Autonomous Delivery Vehicles - The autonomous vehicles are equipped with multiple sensors, including lidar and high-definition cameras, enabling functions such as obstacle avoidance, traffic light recognition, and automatic parking, suitable for various environments like residential areas and industrial parks [2]. - Each vehicle has a capacity of approximately 600 packages and a range of 200 kilometers, replacing traditional delivery vehicles [2]. - The introduction of these vehicles addresses challenges in old residential areas, where over 60% of the 23 communities served have narrow roads and parking difficulties, thus improving delivery efficiency [2]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency and Cost Reduction - The autonomous delivery vehicles operate twice daily, with a theoretical maximum of transporting 8,000 to 10,000 packages per day, significantly reducing delivery costs by approximately 30% in adverse weather conditions [3]. - Zhongtong Express plans to gradually expand the coverage of autonomous vehicles based on operational data, with plans to add three more vehicles soon and implement a multi-vehicle collaborative delivery system [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The industry is at a turning point for the large-scale application of autonomous delivery vehicles, with expectations of a tenfold growth compared to the previous year by 2025 [4]. - As of July 2025, Shenzhen leads the nation in the application scale of functional autonomous vehicles, with over 800 vehicles on the road and more than 400 dedicated to logistics delivery, aiming to reach a target of 1,000 vehicles within the year [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the express delivery industry, indicating a potential for profit elasticity among major listed companies such as Shentong Express, YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [5][24]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, driven by regulatory measures from the State Post Bureau and the active participation of express companies. This initiative aims to combat low-price competition and enhance service quality [1][16]. - The initial results of this de-involution are evident in Guangdong, where the minimum express delivery price has been raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with an average price exceeding 1.4 yuan. This price adjustment is expected to have a ripple effect across other regions [2][18]. - The de-involution effect is anticipated to be sustained due to seasonal price increases and new social security regulations, which will likely lead to increased operational costs for delivery personnel [3][20]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The de-involution framework emphasizes a dual approach where express companies take the lead, supported by regulatory oversight from postal authorities. This was reinforced by a series of meetings and policy announcements aimed at curbing irrational price competition [1][16][19]. Initial Outcomes - Guangdong's price increase serves as a model for other regions, with expectations that provinces like Zhejiang and Fujian will follow suit. The region has maintained a significant share of national express delivery volume, ranging from 24.33% to 27.25% since 2017 [2][19]. Profitability Analysis - The express delivery companies are characterized by low per-ticket profits but high business volumes, leading to significant profit elasticity. For instance, Zhongtong, YTO, Shentong, and Yunda are projected to handle 340.10 billion, 265.73 billion, 227.29 billion, and 237.83 billion packages respectively by the end of 2024, with per-ticket profits of 0.30, 0.15, 0.05, and 0.08 yuan [4][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high profit elasticity, particularly Shentong Express, YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, Yunda Express, and Jitu Express, which have unique advantages in overseas operations [5][25].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to sustainable profitability, as evidenced by recent price increases in response to rising logistics costs and changing market dynamics [4][16]. Price Increase and Its Implications - Starting August 4, express delivery prices in Guangdong Province were raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with the average ticket price exceeding 1.4 yuan [5]. - This price increase may significantly impact low-margin businesses that rely on low-cost shipping, potentially erasing their profits [5][6]. - The cost increase will be distributed across the e-commerce ecosystem, affecting sellers and ultimately consumers, who may experience indirect cost increases through higher product prices or reduced service quality [7][9]. Industry Dynamics and Profit Redistribution - The price hike is expected to trigger a reallocation of profits within the industry, particularly affecting franchise operators who have been under financial strain due to previous price wars [9][12]. - The express delivery sector has been characterized by intense competition and price wars, leading to a significant decline in average ticket prices over the past five years, with a 32% drop [13]. Shift in Market Focus - The express delivery industry is moving towards a model that prioritizes profitability over market share, as capital markets are no longer willing to support unprofitable growth strategies [16][18]. - Companies are expected to enhance service quality, operational efficiency, and technological innovation to create competitive advantages, rather than relying solely on low prices [16][17]. Consumer Behavior and Market Changes - Consumers accustomed to "free shipping" may need to adjust to a new reality where shipping costs are more transparent, leading to clearer choices between low-cost, standardized delivery and premium, personalized services [18][21]. - The rise in logistics costs may also accelerate the growth of instant retail, which offers faster delivery options and could capture market share from traditional e-commerce [17][18].

Core Insights - ZTO Express is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 19, with earnings estimated at $1.55 per share, reflecting a 7.2% decline from 2024 actuals, while revenues are projected to reach $6.83 billion, indicating an 11.1% increase from 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's bottom-line performance is expected to be negatively impacted by high operating expenses, despite strong parcel volumes driving top-line growth [2] - ZTO Express reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of 37 cents per share, matching the previous year's quarter, but total revenues of $1.50 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.67 billion [4] Group 2: Market Conditions - The ongoing trade war between the United States and China is anticipated to affect the upcoming quarter's results [3][10] - Parcel volumes are forecasted to increase by 20-24% in 2025, which is expected to enhance ZTO's top-line growth, although revenues from freight forwarding services may decline due to weak demand [10] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - ZTO currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), indicating a less favorable outlook compared to other companies in the sector [5]

Core Insights - In July, China's e-commerce logistics index reached a new high of 112.0 points, increasing by 0.2 points from the previous month, driven by rising transaction volumes on e-commerce platforms and efficient logistics operations [1] - The total business volume index for e-commerce logistics also hit a record high of 130.9 points, up by 0.1 points from the previous month, indicating robust growth in logistics activities [1] E-commerce Growth Factors - The booming e-commerce consumption in rural areas has significantly contributed to the rise in the e-commerce logistics index, with the rural e-commerce logistics business volume index reaching 131.5 points, an increase of 1.1 points from the previous month [2][3] - All regions in the country saw an increase in rural e-commerce logistics business volume, with the central region experiencing the highest growth of 1.7 points [3] Market Dynamics - Unlike previous years, the e-commerce logistics market in July did not slow down after mid-year promotional activities, as consumer spending policies continued to stimulate demand [4] - The release of 138 billion yuan in national subsidies has enhanced consumer confidence and spending, further driving e-commerce logistics demand [4] Seasonal Trends - High temperatures have fueled the "summer economy," with notable sales increases in categories such as medical supplies, sunscreen, clothing, and beverages, alongside a rise in educational products due to the upcoming school season [5] - The demand for e-commerce logistics is expected to maintain growth momentum as the summer shopping season and back-to-school period approach [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price increase in the express delivery industry in Guangdong, which is seen as a response to the ongoing price war and declining average prices in the sector. The price adjustment is expected to have significant implications for the market dynamics and competition among delivery companies [4][6]. Group 1: Price Increase and Market Dynamics - Guangdong's express delivery base price was raised to 1.4 yuan per ticket, marking a 40% increase, aimed at curbing low-price competition and ensuring market stability [4][6]. - The express delivery sector in Guangdong is crucial, accounting for approximately 25% of the national total, with 234.3 billion packages sent in the first half of the year [4][6]. - Despite the price increase, the underlying issues of fierce competition and price wars in the express delivery industry remain unresolved [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Price Trends - The average price per express delivery ticket in China dropped from 8.14 yuan to 7.52 yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [6]. - Over the past five years, the express delivery industry has experienced a continuous decline in average ticket prices, with a total decrease of 32% [11][22]. - The express delivery market has seen a tenfold increase in volume over the past decade, with a projected 1.758 billion packages to be delivered in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [22][29]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The express delivery industry is characterized by intense competition, with major players struggling to establish a stable market structure. The top eight companies hold 85.2% of the market share, a modest increase of 2.7% over five years [19][22]. - The market remains fragmented, with new entrants and investments continuing to flood in, exacerbating the price competition [26][29]. - The industry's growth is heavily tied to the e-commerce sector, which drives demand for delivery services, further intensifying competition among providers [26][29]. Group 4: Investment and Operational Challenges - Companies in the express delivery sector are investing heavily in fixed assets, such as sorting facilities and transportation vehicles, often outpacing revenue growth [27][29]. - The fixed asset growth for companies like YTO Express has been significantly higher than revenue growth, indicating a focus on capacity expansion despite ongoing price wars [27][29]. - The article suggests that as long as the express delivery volume continues to grow rapidly, the price wars are unlikely to cease, creating a challenging environment for profitability [29].