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小鹏汽车-W(09868):“一车双能+新车型”开启强势周期战略转型“物理AI”公司
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-01-26 07:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][4]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from being a "smart electric vehicle new force" to a "global AI automotive intelligent technology enterprise," focusing on building an integrated intelligent ecosystem of "automobiles + robots + flying cars" [1][20]. - The introduction of the "dual-energy strategy" and multiple new models is expected to initiate a strong product cycle, with significant sales growth anticipated [2][21]. - The company is shifting from a phase of "technology leadership but profitability under pressure" to a profitability inflection point driven by "mass-market hits + technology output" [1][20]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 758 billion, 1321 billion, and 1663 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 85.5%, 74.3%, and 25.9% [4][5]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of -16.4 billion, 24.0 billion, and 64.8 billion for the same period, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [4][5]. Product Strategy - The company has launched its first range-extended model, the X9 EREV, with a large battery and high energy conversion efficiency, addressing user range anxiety [2][3]. - A total of four new models are expected to be launched in 2026, including two SUVs based on the MONA platform and a full-size six-seat SUV [2][21]. AI Strategy - The company is transitioning to a "physical AI" company, showcasing its commitment to this transformation with the release of the VLA 2.0 model, which significantly enhances reasoning efficiency [3][20]. - The company plans to commercialize its self-developed Robotaxi and has set ambitious goals for its humanoid robot, IRON, to begin mass production by the end of 2026 [3][20]. Organizational Changes - The company has undergone significant organizational restructuring to enhance efficiency and product development capabilities, which is expected to support its transition to a more robust business model [20][46]. Market Position - The company is positioned to leverage its technological advancements and strategic partnerships, particularly with Volkswagen, to enhance its competitive edge in the automotive market [20][21].
特步国际(01368):2025Q4营运情况点评:索康尼增速亮眼,期待新店型表现
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-01-26 07:45
请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 索康尼增速亮眼,期待新店型表现 ---特步国际 2025Q4 营运情况点评 事件: [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025Q4 营运状况。2025Q4,特步主品牌全渠道零售销售同比 基本持平,索康尼全渠道销售同比增长超 30%。 点评: 特步主品牌基本保持稳健。2025Q4 特步主品牌全渠道零售同比基本持 平,环比 Q3 低单位数的增速有所放缓。分渠道看,预计电商渠道维持 双位数增长,线下渠道有所承压;分产品看,预计跑步及户外品类销售 维持双位数增长,生活及休闲等品类产品有所承压。零售指标方面,特 步主品牌渠道存货周转维持在四个半月,健康的库存水平下,零售折扣 得以维持在七至七五折。全年零售销售增长低单位数,在波动的消费环 境下保持稳健。 特步主品牌渠道战略持续升级。特步主品牌门店持续完成至九代店、领 跑店等新形象升级。拓店方面保持稳健,预计 2025 年末门店数量同比基 本持平。2026 年在渠道方面推广聚焦于高线城市优质商圈的金标领跑 店,推动品牌形象升级。此外继续布局精选奥莱店,2025 年末已有 30 ...
锂价牛市继续,金价加速走强
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-01-26 06:17
[Table_Info1] 有色金属 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2026-01-26 [Table_Invest] 优于大势 锂价牛市继续,金价加速走强 核心观点: [Table_Summary] 金:去美元化叙事继续推进,金价重回"无敌时间"。1)怎么看格陵兰 Taco?第一,特朗普政府极限施压后又撤回,并非新鲜事,可以预见; 第二,格陵兰即便进入协议阶段,讨价还价也依然需要时间(参考美俄); 第三,当前地缘风险不再是单纯的事件冲击,而将成为贯穿今年的主题 交易之一,本质上是美国重返现实主义外交后,向全球要生存空间,而 在这个过程中美国战略的孤立主义倾向和美国资产的全球化是相矛盾 的。本周有报道称丹麦、瑞典养老基金抛售美债,波兰央行批准购买 150 吨黄金,去美元化叙事推进将巩固金价的长期逻辑。2)里德成为新的联 储主席人选?本周里德成为联储主席的概率飙升至 51%,沃什滑落至 31%,沃勒和哈塞特分别是 8%和 6%。里德目前为贝莱德的高管,属于 意识形态鸽派,其成为联储主席,和哈塞特一样,对于金价而言具有正 面意义,关注特朗普即将公布的联储提名人选。短期金价进入"无敌时 间",对利空相对免疫。 ...
闰土股份(002440):Q4业绩预告超预期,分散染料开启涨价周期
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-01-23 11:26
[Table_Info1] [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 Q4 业绩预告超预期,分散染料开启涨价周期 --- 闰土股份公司点评 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 25 年业绩预告:预计公司 2025 年归母净利润为 6.0-7.0 亿元, 同比增长 181%-228%,扣非归母净利润预计为 2.7-3.7 亿元,同比增长 27%-74%,扣非业绩增长主要是公司活性染料及基础化学品经营提升; 公司非经常性损益主要为,通过专项投资基金持有的沐曦集成电路(上 海)股份有限公司及公司持有的投资项目的投资收益及公允价值变动收 益,预计为 3.3 亿元。按业绩中值来看,25Q4 扣非归母净利润为 1.26 亿 元,25Q3 为 0.61 亿元,24Q4 为 0.92 亿元,同环比均有大幅增长。 关键中间体还原物涨价,带动分散染料涨价。2-氨基-4-乙酰氨基苯甲醚 是分散染料的关键中间体,主要生产厂家包括浙江龙盛、闰土股份和宁 夏中盛新科技。还原物生产过程涉及硝化、加氢等工艺,且会产生大量 废酸,对安全环保要求极高。过去五年分散染料行业震荡下行,中间体 环节利润也显著压缩,行业产能不断 ...
炬光科技(688167):新加坡后道产线顺利建成,光通信业务成长未来可期
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-01-22 09:52
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The successful establishment of the advanced high-precision micro-optical device backend production line in Singapore marks a significant milestone for the company, enhancing its capabilities in the optical communication sector [4] - The company is actively expanding its optical communication business, with a notable increase in revenue from laser optical components, which grew by 37% year-on-year to 291 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [5] - The global demand for high-speed optical modules is surging, driven by the rapid development of AI computing infrastructure, presenting substantial growth opportunities for the company [6] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 620 million yuan in 2024 to 1.766 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 40.66% [8] - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of 175 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 160 million yuan in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -1.95 yuan in 2024 to 1.78 yuan in 2027 [8]
CPU:服务器中枢大脑,需求的拐点
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-01-22 09:42
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to exceed market benchmarks in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in CPU demand driven by AI applications, with a notable increase in server CPU requirements due to the expansion of generative AI training and inference clusters [2]. - Supply-side constraints are evident, with major players like Intel and AMD planning to raise server CPU prices by 10%-15% by 2026, while also reallocating production capacity from consumer electronics to server CPUs [1]. - The global CPU market is projected to grow from approximately $130.2 billion in 2025 to $141.27 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 8.5% from 2025 to 2030 [3]. Supply Side Summary - Major overseas companies are increasing prices, with Intel shifting production capacity to server CPUs, leading to a significant drop in delivery assurance rates for consumer electronics [1]. - There is a persistent shortage of Intel 7/10 CPUs, exacerbated by a shift in production focus, resulting in a growing supply gap in the PC segment [1]. - Upstream material shortages, particularly in ABF substrates due to T-glass scarcity, are impacting server CPU production, with Intel prioritizing server CPU supply [1]. - The average selling price and gross margin for CPUs are expected to rise as Intel and AMD adjust their product mix towards high-end servers [1]. Demand Side Summary - The demand for AI inference is surging, leading to exponential growth in the need for server nodes [2]. - General-purpose servers are entering a significant upgrade cycle as large-scale data centers require modernization due to power consumption limits of older racks [2]. - The emergence of Agent-based computing is increasing CPU demand, as these systems require more processing power than traditional general-purpose computing [2]. - There is a reversal in the market dynamics, with general-purpose servers now presenting compensatory investment opportunities following a period of AI server dominance [2]. Industry Landscape Summary - The global CPU market is dominated by major players, with Intel and AMD holding 50% and 30% market shares in China, respectively [3]. - The Chinese CPU market is segmented into desktop CPUs (50% share), mobile CPUs (30% share), and server CPUs (20% share), with foreign companies holding a significant market share [3]. Related Companies - Domestic CPU manufacturers include Haiguang Information, Hesheng New Materials, and Loongson Technology [4]. - Upstream CPU suppliers include Huada Jiutian and Huazheng New Materials [4]. - Server manufacturers include Zhongke Shuguang, Inspur Information, and Unisplendour [4].
康耐特光学(02276):公司业绩延续高增,携手歌尔光学成立合资公司加速产业链整合
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-01-22 06:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to grow by no less than 30% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of 1.74 refractive index lenses and other multifunctional products, ongoing scale effects, improved automation, and optimized financing structure [1][4]. - A joint venture with Goer Optical has been established to accelerate the integration of the AI glasses supply chain, focusing on customized lenses and optical components for AI/AR/VR/MR applications [2][3]. - Global sales of AI glasses are expected to rise significantly, with projections of 7 million units in 2025 and 18 million units in 2026, indicating exponential growth potential [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 23.51 billion, 27.65 billion, and 32.22 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 5.65 billion, 7.03 billion, and 8.61 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.03 yuan in 2024 to 1.79 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve, with net profit margins of 20.8% in 2024 and reaching 26.7% by 2027 [5][13].
安踏体育(02020):零售表现相对平稳,多品牌及海外持续布局
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-01-21 09:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The retail performance of the company remains relatively stable, with the Anta brand experiencing a slight decline in retail sales, while the FILA brand shows improvement. Other brands continue to grow at a high rate [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10.9% in 2025, 10.2% in 2026, and 9.1% in 2027, reaching revenues of 785.7 billion, 865.5 billion, and 944.2 billion respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline by 14.1% in 2025, followed by increases of 12.5% and 11.6% in the subsequent years [3]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta brand retail sales decreased by low single digits year-on-year in Q4 2025, while FILA brand sales increased by mid single digits. Other brands saw retail sales growth of 35-40% [2][3]. - The company has been adjusting its franchise stores and successfully expanding various store formats, with the opening of a new store in Los Angeles planned for January 2026 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 62,356 million, with projections of 70,826 million for 2024, 78,566 million for 2025, and continuing growth through 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 10,236 million in 2023, increasing to 15,596 million in 2024, but declining to 13,402 million in 2025 before recovering in subsequent years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.33 in 2025, decreasing to 12.21 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4]. - The net asset return rate is expected to decline from 25.27% in 2024 to 15.76% in 2027, reflecting changes in profitability [4].
多利科技(001311):设立西班牙合资公司,加快全球化布局
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-01-21 09:36
[Table_Info1] 多利科技(001311) 汽车 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2026-01-21 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 设立西班牙合资公司,加快全球化布局 [Table_Summary] 事件:公司发布子公司对外投资并设立合资公司的进展公告,合资公司 利霭德已完成股权合资登记,香港多利和霭德兰已根据协议约定按双方 的持股比例进行了等比例的初始增资,增资后,双方分别持有利霭德 70% 和 30%股权。 点评:设立西班牙合资公司,推动公司国际化发展进程。霭德兰的母公 司法格霭德兰集团是汽车行业领先的零部件制造商,专门生产底盘系统 (制动和悬架)、动力总成和其他车辆结构件的关键部件,生产工厂分布 在欧洲、中国、南美和北美。此次对外投资并设立西班牙合资公司,有 助于持续深化公司与法格霭德兰在品牌、技术、产品、研发及市场开拓 等领域的合作,降低海外投资风险;同时有效推动了公司国际化发展进 程,帮助公司拓展国内外客户资源,提升公司品牌影响力,强化产品市 场竞争力,扩大公司整体产业规模。 积极拓展新能源整车客户,客户资源优势明显。伴随全球新能源汽车的 迅猛发展,公司 ...
春风动力(603129):全球化布局稳步推进,极核电动有望成为新的增长引擎
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-01-21 09:17
| [Table_Market] 股票数据 | 2026/01/21 | | --- | --- | | 6 个月目标价(元) | / | | 收盘价(元) | 279.46 | | 12 个月股价区间(元) | 139.46~297.21 | | 总市值(百万元) | 42,639.35 | | 总股本(百万股) | 153 | | A 股(百万股) | 153 | | B 股/H 股(百万股) | 0/0 | | 日均成交量(百万股) | 2 | [Table_PicQuote] 历史收益率曲线 [Table_Info1] 春风动力(603129) 汽车 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2026-01-21 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司动态报告 全球化布局稳步推进,极核电动有望成为新的增长引擎 [Table_Summary] 营业收入增长强劲,盈利能力稳中向好。收入端,前三季度公司实现营 收 148.96 亿元,同比+30.10%,其中 25Q3 实现营收 50.41 亿元,同比+ 28.56%;利润端,前三季度公司实现归母净利润 14.15 亿元,同比+30.8 9%,其中 2 ...