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稳增长的下半场支柱:新型政策性金融工具如何托底?
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-09-04 03:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy - based financial tools are carriers of policy - based finance, aiming to provide capital for national strategic projects, with a strong "quasi - fiscal" attribute. Historical practices include the special construction funds from 2015 - 2017 and the policy - based and development financial tools in 2022. The upcoming new policy - based financial tools may continue the feature of monetary - fiscal coordination [14][18][108]. - If the new policy - based financial tools are established in the third quarter of 2025 and fully invested within the year, they are expected to boost RMB credit growth by 0.33 - 1.00 percentage points and infrastructure investment growth by 5.67 - 12.38 percentage points in 2025 [4][101]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 What are Policy - based Financial Tools? - "Policy - based finance" emphasizes government macro - control. Policy - based financial tools are carriers of policy - based finance, providing capital for national strategic projects and having a "quasi - fiscal" attribute. The concept of new policy - based financial tools was first proposed in 2025, which may inject new vitality into infrastructure investment and help stabilize economic growth in the second half of the year [13][14]. 3.2 Looking Back at the Historical Practice and Evolution of Policy - based Financial Tools 3.2.1 Special Construction Funds with "Second Fiscal" Characteristics - **Establishment Background**: In 2015, to expand effective investment and relieve economic downward pressure, the NDRC proposed to issue special bonds to raise funds for special construction funds. Externally, the Fed tightened liquidity, and internally, the economy was in the "three - phase superposition" new normal, with domestic investment in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing declining [19]. - **Funding Sources**: Initially, policy banks issued special bonds to the Postal Savings Bank, with 90% central fiscal discount. Later, it was changed to public issuance in the market, and the discount was adjusted to different levels [22]. - **Investment Areas**: It mainly supported key construction projects, covering five major categories and 33 special projects such as people's livelihood improvement, "three rural" construction, and infrastructure. It also began to expand to transformation and upgrading fields [26]. - **Operation Mode**: Policy banks established special construction fund companies. Local governments and state - owned enterprises submitted project applications to the NDRC, which formed a project list. The funds were invested in an equity form, with a fixed return and an exit mechanism such as equity transfer or repurchase [30][32][33]. - **Investment Effect**: Theoretically, it could leverage 4 - 6.67 times the investment scale, and in practice, it could leverage 3.45 - 4.29 times. It played a role in stabilizing infrastructure investment, and the growth rate of fixed - asset investment in industries such as water conservancy increased significantly [40][41]. 3.2.2 Policy - based and Development Financial Tools Highlighting "Monetary - Fiscal Coordination" - **Establishment Background**: In 2022, due to the impact of the pandemic, the economy faced triple pressures. The government introduced a series of policies, including setting up policy - based and development financial tools to support economic growth. A total of about 7399 billion yuan was invested [44][48]. - **Funding Sources**: The first batch was mainly from market - based bond issuance, and the subsequent batches might have PSL funds as a supplement, reflecting the synergy between currency and finance [51]. - **Investment Areas**: The scope was further expanded to include some new infrastructure and green energy projects. However, in practice, traditional infrastructure fields were still the main focus [53][54]. - **Operation Mode**: Similar to special construction funds, policy banks established infrastructure fund investment companies. The central government provided appropriate interest subsidies for 2 years. The investment period was 15 - 20 years [59][60]. - **Investment Effect**: It significantly promoted infrastructure investment, boosting the growth of large - scale project investment and total fixed - asset investment. It also repaired the loan demand in the infrastructure industry [68][69]. 3.2.3 Comparison of the Two Types of Policy - based Financial Tools - Although there are differences in details such as funding sources, subsidy policies, and investment ratios, their core function is to provide project capital for major projects, essentially "capital loans" [71]. 3.3 Understanding the New Policy - based Financial Tools - The core function may still be to supplement project capital, but the investment areas may include new infrastructure such as digital economy and artificial intelligence, and the support may be tilted towards private enterprises [78][79]. - The funding sources may be market - based bond issuance by policy banks, supplemented by PSL funds and central fiscal subsidies. The total scale is about 50 billion yuan [80][81]. - The operation process is similar to the previous two rounds. It may participate in the form of equity investment, shareholder loans, and special bond capital bridging loans, with shareholder loans being the main form [85]. - The establishment speed is relatively slow, possibly to reserve policy space and allow sufficient time for project application. It is expected to be established and put into use in September - October 2025 to stabilize infrastructure growth [90][98]. 3.4 Calculation of the Stimulative Effect of New Policy - based Financial Tools on Stable Growth - **Credit Demand Stimulative Effect**: Referring to the 2022 experience, policy - based financial tools can leverage 1.55 - 4.73 times of credit demand. If 50 billion yuan of new policy - based financial tools are invested within the year, they can boost credit growth by 0.33 - 1.00 percentage points [102][104]. - **Infrastructure Investment Stimulative Effect**: They can leverage 10 - 13.2 times of total infrastructure investment. About 50 billion yuan of new policy - based financial tools can boost infrastructure investment growth by 5.67 - 12.38 percentage points in 2025 [105][106]. 3.5 Summary - Policy - based financial tools play a crucial role in providing capital for major projects. The upcoming new tools may continue the feature of monetary - fiscal coordination, with innovations in investment areas and participating subjects. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the central bank adjusting PSL interest rates [108].
京东方A(000725):公司业绩超预期,OLED高端产品放量在即
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 11:39
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 101.28 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing an 8.45% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 3.25 billion yuan, up 42.15% year-over-year [1][2]. - The company's overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 14.41%, a decrease of 1.39 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the LCD market and an increase in demand for OLED products, particularly in the second half of 2025 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 22.736 billion yuan, down 8.61% year-over-year [1]. - The company’s LCD TV panel shipments reached 33.2 million units in H1 2025, a 17% increase year-over-year, while the global LCD TV panel shipments grew by 2% [1]. - The flexible OLED shipments were approximately 71 million units in H1 2025, marking a 10.3% year-over-year increase, with a market share of 23.8% [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 222.22 billion yuan, 244.37 billion yuan, and 268.51 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2]. - The expected net profits for the same years are 8.50 billion yuan, 12.35 billion yuan, and 14.95 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.09, 12.45, and 10.29 [2].
中微公司(688012):营收延续高增态势,薄膜与量检测打开增长空间
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 08:47
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company continues to experience high revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 4.961 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 43.88% [1][2]. - The company's net profit for the same period was 706 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 36.62% [1]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by product iteration and the introduction of new products, despite a slight decline in gross margin to 39.86% [2]. - The company has a strong focus on research and development, with a R&D expense ratio of 22.50%, which has increased by 6.04% year-over-year [2]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.787 billion yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 51.26% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 28.25% [1]. - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 393 million yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 46.82% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 25.47% [1]. - The company anticipates that the impact of initial high costs from new product introductions will be one-time, with long-term gross margins expected to remain above 40% [2]. Product Development and Market Position - The etching equipment segment generated 3.781 billion yuan in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a year-over-year growth of approximately 40% [3]. - The company has introduced several new products aimed at advanced manufacturing processes, including the Primo SD-RIE and Primo Halona for 28nm and below processes [3]. - The company has also made significant advancements in its film equipment segment, with a notable 608.19% year-over-year increase in LPCVD equipment sales [4]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.256 billion yuan, 3.163 billion yuan, and 4.305 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 59, 42, and 31 for the same years [4].
思瑞浦(688536):单季度营收持续环比增长,盈利能力显著提升
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 08:46
Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a potential stock price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 949 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 87.33%, and a net profit of 66 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 527 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.96% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.03%, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 222.11% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company is expanding its business in various sectors including automotive, AI servers, new energy, and power modules, benefiting from a recovery in downstream demand [2][3]. - The product matrix is being enriched with new launches, focusing on signal chain and power management, which are expected to enhance market share [2]. - The company has established a comprehensive layout in four major application markets, showcasing its platform capabilities, particularly in industrial and automotive sectors [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 148 million yuan, 356 million yuan, and 539 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 141, 58, and 39 [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2,060 million yuan, 2,670 million yuan, and 3,386 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 68.95%, 29.60%, and 26.80% respectively [3][10]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of approximately 47.2% in 2026 and 47.5% in 2027 [10].
晶晨股份(688099):单季度营收创历史新高,端侧AI引领成长
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 08:45
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high quarterly revenue, driven by growth in edge AI technology, with a revenue of 3.33 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.42% and a net profit of 497 million yuan, up 37.12% [1]. - The launch of new products has led to a steady increase in sales scale, particularly in the smart home market, where demand is rapidly growing [2]. - The company has maintained a strong commitment to R&D, with R&D expenses reaching 735 million yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 61 million yuan year-on-year [2]. - The company has successfully transformed from a traditional set-top box TV chip manufacturer to a general-purpose platform SOC and Wi-Fi company, significantly enhancing its market share [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 1.045 billion yuan for 2025, 1.457 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.883 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39, 28, and 21 times respectively [3]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 5.926 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.328 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 17.53% [4]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 13.9% in 2024 to 18.2% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4].
东北固收转债分析:胜蓝转02定价:首日转股溢价率10-15%
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 07:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The target price of Shenglan Convertible Bond 02 on the first day of listing is expected to be between 131 - 137 yuan, and investors are advised to actively subscribe. Based on the par value of 119.19 yuan as of September 1, 2025, and referring to similar convertible bonds, the conversion premium rate on the first - day of listing is estimated to be in the range of 10% - 15% [3][21]. - The estimated first - day new - bond subscription winning rate is around 0.0022% - 0.0025%. Assuming the old shareholders' placement ratio is 56% - 61%, the scale available for the market is 1.76 billion - 1.98 billion yuan, and with an assumed online effective subscription of 7.92 million households, the winning rate is calculated [4][22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Shenglan Convertible Bond New - Bond Analysis and Investment Recommendations 3.1.1. Analysis of Convertible Bond Basic Terms - The issuance method of Shenglan Convertible Bond 02 is priority placement and online issuance, with a bond and issuer rating of AA -. The issuance scale is 450 million yuan, the initial conversion price is 54.56 yuan, the convertible bond par value is 119.19 yuan, the pure bond value is 94.58 yuan. The game terms are normal. Overall, the bond issuance scale is low, the liquidity is poor, the rating is acceptable, and the bond floor protection is good. It is not difficult for institutions to include it in their portfolios, and there is no objection to primary - market participation [2][17]. 3.1.2. Analysis of New - Bond Initial Listing Price - The company is mainly engaged in the R & D, production, and sales of electronic connectors, precision components, and new - energy vehicle connectors and their components. After deducting issuance fees, 255 million yuan of the raised funds is planned for the R & D and construction project of new - energy vehicle high - voltage connectors and components, and 195 million yuan for the R & D and construction project of industrial control connectors [3][20]. 3.1.3. Analysis of Convertible Bond New - Bond Subscription Winning Rate - As of March 31, 2025, the top two major shareholders held 56.4% of the shares, and the top ten major shareholders held 61.13%. Assuming the old shareholders' placement ratio is 56% - 61%, the scale available for the market is 1.76 billion - 1.98 billion yuan. With an assumed online effective subscription of 7.92 million households, the winning rate is estimated to be around 0.0022% - 0.0025% [4][22]. 3.2. Analysis of the Underlying Stock's Fundamental Situation 3.2.1. Company's Main Business and the Up - and Downstream Situations of the Industry - The company is a high - tech enterprise focusing on the R & D, production, and sales of electronic connectors, precision components, and new - energy vehicle connectors and their components. The upstream raw materials include metal and plastic materials, and the downstream includes various application fields such as automotive, telecommunications, and data communication. The connector industry shows a trend of professional segmentation [23][24]. 3.2.2. Company's Operating Conditions - From 2022 to Q1 2025, the company's operating income was 1.17 billion yuan, 1.241 billion yuan, 1.287 billion yuan, and 337 million yuan respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 10.16%, 6.06%, 3.71%, and 17.18%. The main business income comes from consumer - electronics connectors and components and new - energy vehicle connectors and components. The company's comprehensive gross margin and net profit margin have been increasing, while the period expenses have slightly increased, and the R & D expenses have shown a growth trend. The accounts receivable has remained relatively stable, and the accounts - receivable turnover rate is lower than the industry average [26][30][33]. 3.2.3. Company's Equity Structure and Main Subsidiaries - As of March 31, 2025, Shenglan Investment Holding Co., Ltd. was the largest shareholder, holding 54.20% of the shares. The top two major shareholders held 56.4% of the shares, and the top ten major shareholders held 61.13%. Huang Xuelin was the actual controller, holding 45.28% of the equity [44][46]. 3.2.4. Company's Business Characteristics and Advantages - The company has advantages in talent cultivation, technical capabilities, and market foundation. It has established a talent - training mechanism, holds 432 patents as of March 2025, and has stable cooperation relationships with many well - known companies in the consumer - electronics and new - energy vehicle fields [49]. 3.2.5. Arrangement of the Current Raised Funds - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 450 million yuan. After deducting issuance fees, 255 million yuan is for the new - energy vehicle high - voltage connector and component project with a total investment of 255.7587 million yuan and an annual production capacity of 8 million pcs after completion; 195 million yuan is for the industrial control connector project with a total investment of 196.577 million yuan and an annual production capacity of 48 million pcs after completion [51][52].
振芯科技(300101):25H1业绩高增,北斗导航业务驱动增长
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 07:35
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2025H1 reached 483 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.44%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 66 million yuan, also up 36.71% year-on-year [1]. - The growth is primarily driven by the Beidou navigation business, which generated 171 million yuan in revenue for 2025H1, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 73.21% [2]. - The company has made advancements in AI and unmanned systems, successfully developing and deploying embodied intelligence systems, which enhances its strategic positioning in the military sector [3]. Financial Performance - For 2025Q2, the company reported a revenue of 314 million yuan, reflecting a 46.11% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, which is a 77.54% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for 2025H1 was 61.54%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating improved profitability [3]. - The company expects revenues of 1.12 billion yuan, 1.55 billion yuan, and 2.12 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 132 million yuan, 210 million yuan, and 309 million yuan for the same years [4][5]. Business Segments - The integrated circuit business achieved revenue of 243 million yuan in 2025H1, a year-on-year increase of 29.55%, indicating a recovery in downstream demand [2]. - The smart city construction and operation service business reported a slight decline in revenue, down 0.73% year-on-year to 55 million yuan [2]. - The machine perception and intelligence business generated 11.77 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.26% [2].
神州泰岳(300002):业绩符合预期,新游进展加速
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-09-02 11:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.685 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12.05%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 509 million yuan, down 19.26% [1]. - The gaming business experienced a revenue decline of 16.41% year-on-year in H1 2025, primarily due to reduced user acquisition costs as core games entered a mature phase [2]. - The company is focusing on long-life cycle SLG games, with two core mobile games, "Age of Origins" and "War and Order," contributing 74% and 23% to gaming revenue, respectively [2]. - New game releases are expected to accelerate, with two new SLG games currently in commercialization testing and several others planned for release in the overseas market [2]. - The company is expanding its AI product matrix, launching the "Taiyue Lighthouse" AI model application system and the subscription-based AI voice robot "avavox," which integrates over 200 industry templates [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of 1.29 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.71 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.9, 17.2, and 15.8 [3]. Financial Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.685 billion yuan, with a net profit of 509 million yuan [1]. - The financial projections indicate a revenue of 6.177 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 4.26% from the previous year, with a net profit of 1.286 billion yuan, down 9.93% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share are projected to be 0.65 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 20.93 [4]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 26.91 billion yuan, with a closing price of 13.68 yuan as of September 1, 2025 [5].
城商行的二十年:展望“十五五”,谁是未来大赢家?
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-09-02 09:02
Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the evolution of local government financing behavior and regulatory adjustments over the past two decades have significantly influenced the financial sector. It predicts that the proportion of bank credit in local government debt will increase from 38% to 42% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an annual growth rate fluctuating between 10% and 17% [1][18][19] - City commercial banks (CCBs) have played a crucial role in supporting local government debt resolution, with their credit growth in government-related loans outpacing that of other banks. The report identifies a complementary relationship between CCBs' government-related loan growth and the issuance of urban investment bonds [1][2] - The report forecasts that CCBs will take on greater responsibilities in the future, driven by increasing state ownership, leadership changes reflecting regulatory attributes, and strong local government relationships. This will enhance local market competitiveness and provide growth opportunities for CCBs [2][18] Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Local Government Financing Structure - The report outlines the historical evolution of local government debt and financing needs, highlighting the significant role of regulatory and policy adjustments in shaping the financial sector [14][18] - It provides a detailed analysis of local government debt structure changes from 2008 to 2025, noting the shift from bank loans to urban investment bonds and shadow banking during various phases [19][24] 2. CCBs' Role in Debt Resolution - CCBs have shown proactive engagement in local government debt resolution, with their government-related loan growth significantly higher than that of other banks. The report indicates that CCBs have effectively supplied funds during periods of heightened repayment pressure [1][2][19] 3. Future Prospects for CCBs - The report identifies several CCBs, including Chongqing Bank, Xiamen Bank, and Shanghai Bank, as potential winners during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, expecting them to achieve faster expansion and higher returns for investors [2][3] - It predicts that the overall valuation of CCBs will have substantial room for improvement, estimating a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.7x by the end of 2026 and 1.22x by the end of 2030 [2][3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific CCBs such as Chongqing Bank, Xiamen Bank, Shanghai Bank, Qilu Bank, and Chengdu Bank for potential investment opportunities [3][6]
欧洲专题系列1:中欧关系的演变及其原因
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-09-02 07:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Europe is experiencing a decline due to multiple crises, including economic slowdown, high debt, and lack of strategic investment in key areas, along with political fragmentation and loss of military and strategic autonomy [1][2][14] - The Sino - European relationship has gone through a process of warming up first and then cooling down, with the turning point around 2017 - 2018, which is related to the start of Trump's first term and the first round of the China - US trade war [11][30] - The negative turn in Europe's attitude towards China is due to the intensifying industrial competition, especially in the fields where China has broken Europe's monopoly [33][36] - China is mainly in direct competition with European powerful countries, and the relationship with these countries will remain more competitive than cooperative [44][48] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 With 2017 - 2018 as the turning point, the Sino - European relationship has experienced a process of warming up first and then cooling down - Diplomatic interaction: Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1975, the Sino - European relationship has gone through four stages: the initial establishment stage (1975 - 2000) with limited interaction; the rapid development stage (2001 - 2010) with increasing high - level exchanges but affected by external factors; the in - depth cooperation stage (2011 - 2020) with more exchanges but emerging industrial competition; and the strategic adjustment stage (2021 - present) with deteriorating relations and more crisis - control communication [17][18][19] - Investment relationship: It can be divided into five stages: the budding stage (1975 - 1990) with mainly European unilateral investment in China; the high - speed growth stage (1991 - 2008) with continued European investment and the beginning of Chinese enterprises' mergers and acquisitions in Europe; the adjustment and transformation stage (2009 - 2016) with a slowdown in European investment in China and the rise of Chinese investment in Europe; the rule - gaming stage (2017 - 2020) with stricter European review of Chinese mergers and acquisitions; and the stage of deepening competition and cooperation (2021 - present) with further restrictions on Chinese investment in Europe [22][24][25] - The number of foreign enterprises in China has also shown a similar trend of change, with growth stagnating in recent years [28][29] 3.2 Behind Europe's negative attitude towards China is the intensifying industrial competition - Since 2018, China has broken Europe's monopoly in fields such as 5G, photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and semiconductor, leading to an expanding trade deficit between the two sides in key areas [33] - Public opinion in European countries towards China has become more negative since around 2018, which has laid the foundation for the Sino - European trade war [36] - The Sino - European trade war started in April 2024, and the core areas of the trade war include new energy, high - end manufacturing, agricultural products, digital economy, and some industrial products [40][42] 3.3 China is mainly in direct competition with European "powerful countries" - China is in direct competition with first - class powerful countries like Germany, France, and the UK, and some relatively strong first - class countries such as the Netherlands, Italy, and Nordic countries, in fields such as new energy, high - end manufacturing, and digital economy [44] - The competitive relationship between China and these European powerful countries will make it difficult for a "full reconciliation" to occur, and future Sino - European cooperation may focus more on second - and third - tier medium - powerful European countries [48]