2025 年 04 月 21 日 建筑 3 月基建投资环比提速，内需有望持续 发力 本周投资建议： 本周统计局发布数据，1-3 月份，狭义、广义基础设施投资分别同比 增长 5.80%、11.50%，环比 1-2 月分别+0.2pct、+1.56pct，狭义基 建投资增速比上年全年加快 1.4pct，或由于年初以来基建资金发行 较快，项目到位资金改善，实物工作量加快形成。截至 4 月 20 日， 城投债发行规模 1.82 万亿元，地方政府新增专项债发行规模 1.06 万 亿元（yoy+61%），特殊再融资专项债 1.72 万亿元（约占全年 2 万亿 额度的 86%）。 在基建三大分项中，电热气水投资增速持续维持高位且环比提升，1- 3 月，电热气水投资同比增长 26.00%（环比+0.60pct）；其次为水利、 环境和公共设施管理业投资同比增加 9.80%（环比+1.30pct），交通 运输、仓储和邮政业投资同比增长 3.80%（环比+1.10pct）。在基建各 主要细分行业中，1-3 月，水利管理业投资增速位居各细分行业首位， 为 36.8%，公共设施管理业投资同比增速为 4.90%（环比+2.3pct）， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of HKD 36.38 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown a continuous narrowing of losses, with a reported loss of RMB 170 million for the year 2024. The core product, the LZ901 shingles vaccine, has made significant progress, completing the enrollment of 26,000 healthy participants in its Phase III clinical trial by January 2024. The mid-term analysis results of the trial are expected in the second half of 2024, and the BLA for LZ901 has been accepted by the NMPA, indicating promising commercialization prospects [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a loss of RMB 170 million for 2024, which is a reduction from previous losses. Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 0.02 billion, RMB 10.51 billion, and RMB 17.95 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB -300 million, RMB 1.42 billion, and RMB 5.08 billion [4][9]. Product Pipeline - The company has a diverse product pipeline, including three candidates in clinical stages and six in preclinical stages. The core product LZ901 is complemented by a biosimilar of adalimumab (K3) expected to enter Phase III trials in 2026, and other candidates targeting various diseases [3][4]. Market Positioning - LZ901 is positioned competitively with a unique tetrameric molecular structure that enhances immunogenicity, leading to higher neutralizing antibody titers compared to Shingrix. The expected retail price for LZ901 is between RMB 500 to 800 per dose, significantly lower than Shingrix, which is priced at approximately RMB 3,200 for two doses [2][4]. Valuation Model - The report utilizes a DCF valuation model, projecting a target price of HKD 36.38 based on expected revenue growth and profitability improvements over the next few years [4][11].

2025 年 04 月 20 日 长电科技(600584.SH) 封装技术驱动多元增长，汽车电子/运算业务表现亮眼 公司持续深化高性能封装技术在高附加值领域的应用，推动通讯、消 费、运算和汽车电子四大核心业务板块实现全面突破。按照 24 年收 入占比看，公司在通讯电子（占比 44.8%）、消费电子（占比 24.1%）、 运算电子（占比 16.2%，同比+38.1%）和汽车电子领域（占比 7.9%， 同比+20.5%，持续高于市场平均水平）均实现双位数增长，彰显公司 技术领先优势和持续发展动能。 研发加码+产能释放，有望打开盈利空间 投资建议： 我们预计公司 2025-2027 年收入分别为 402.77 亿元、451.1 亿元、 496.21 亿元，归母净利润分别为 24.01 亿元、31.73 亿元、40.52 亿 元（原预测 24-26 年归母净利润为 26.51 亿元、34.91 亿元、41.22 亿元）。采用 PE 估值法，考虑到公司在半导体封测领域的龙头地位， 叠加其在 2.5D/3D、SiP 等领域的技术优势，给予公司 2025 年 30 倍 PE，对应目标价 40.25 元/股，维持"买入-A" ...

公司在手机通讯、消费电子等传统存量市场应用领域内不断拓宽产品 线种类，新产品线延续了高速增长，份额提升明显。在汽车电子、数 据中心、AI+等新兴战略市场不断拓展客户，取得了多位全球顶级客 户的一致认可，实现了持续强劲的高速增长。 (1)消费电子：公司目前已实现消费电子领域客户的全面覆盖，新产 品份额持续提升，元器件主要的产品方向是进一步小型化、集成化， 公司在高精密电感领域具有行业领先优势。AI 端侧应用加速上行，A I 赋能手机、PC、可穿戴设备等应用场景，将对各类元器件带来增量 市场机遇。(2)汽车电子：公司产品在汽车电子具体应用十分广泛， 通过不断深入探索产品组合，截止目前，公司产品已实现三电系统等 电动化场景全面覆盖，并且延伸至智能驾驶、域控制器、智能座舱等 全方位智能化应用场景覆盖。(3)数据中心：公司密切与头部企业保 持合作与联系，凭借自身的工艺平台多样性，在 AI 服务器、DDR5、 企业级 SSD 等应用场景为客户提供了多种节能降耗的产品组合与方 案。 投资建议： 我们预计公司 2025-2027 年收入分别为 70.52 亿元、81.68 亿元、 93.99 亿元，归母净利润分别为 10.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a target price set for leading stocks [5]. Core Insights - The recent positive results from Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 small molecule Orforglipron in Phase 3 clinical trials indicate a significant advancement in diabetes treatment, potentially allowing for a complete oral medication regimen before insulin use [2][15]. - The global market for GLP-1 drugs is substantial, with projected sales of approximately $51.8 billion in 2024, of which $37.71 billion (73%) is attributed to diabetes products, suggesting strong future growth potential for oral GLP-1 small molecules [20][21]. Summary by Sections New Drug Market Review - From April 14 to April 20, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: Boan Biotechnology (68.01%), Fuhong Hanlin (18.71%), Junsheng Tai (16.20%), Nothland (11.00%), and Yifang Biotechnology (10.48%). The top five companies with stock price declines were: Youzhiyou (-21.19%), Beihai Kangcheng (-16.57%), Aidi Pharmaceutical (-9.48%), Geely Pharmaceutical (-7.84%), and Haishike (-7.54%) [1][11]. Key Analysis of New Drug Industry - Eli Lilly's Orforglipron demonstrated a significant reduction in HbA1c levels, with an average decrease from a baseline of 8.0% to between 1.3% and 1.6%. Over 65% of patients achieved an A1C level of ≤6.5%, and the average weight loss for patients on the highest dose was 7.9% [15][16]. New Drug Approvals and Applications - This week, three new drugs or new indications were approved for market entry in China, with 299 new drugs receiving IND approvals and 38 new IND applications accepted [3][24]. Domestic New Drug Industry Highlights - Notable approvals include the full human monoclonal antibody injection for psoriasis by Kangfang Biotechnology and a new generation BCL2 inhibitor for chronic lymphocytic leukemia by BeiGene [4][6]. Overseas New Drug Industry Highlights - Key developments include the approval of Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 receptor agonist Orforglipron and the approval of Leqembi for Alzheimer's disease in the EU [7].

2025 年 04 月 20 日 再论黄金坑：缩量≠二次探底 本周上证指数涨 1.19%，沪深 300 涨 0.59%。本周全 A 日均交易额 11087 亿， 环比上周有所下降。近两周各类核心 ETF 共计流入近 2000 亿，成为市场主导 性增量资金，同时近期上证综指九连阳充分体现维稳资金在资本市场发挥"定 海神针"的作用。在此，我们再次重申对于市场的观点：在此前周报《这是一个 "黄金坑"！》提出类似于去年九月下旬，全球经济大衰退存在过度演绎的可能， 大盘指数节后有望面临"年内黄金坑"。在市场大跌后，风险偏好逐步修复，并对 边际利空钝化，我们在上周周报《坑底明确！爬坑关键词是：半导体》予以明确。 在本周市场爬坑的过程中，市场开始高度关注到 A 股成交额延续缩量趋势，本 周五（4 月 18 日）缩量至 9491 亿元，创下了 2024 年 9 月 24 日以来的最低 值。事实上，本轮"黄金坑"过程中，上证综指从最低位 3040 附近修复至 3250 上方。对比来看，自 924 行情 A 股急涨后转入震荡市，上证综指运行区间大致 在 3100-3500 点，而本轮反弹行情中，我们会明确感知到大盘指数接近对等关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the biopharmaceutical sector [5]. Core Insights - The recent positive results from Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 small molecule Orforglipron in Phase 3 clinical trials (ACHIEVE-1) are significant for diabetes treatment, potentially increasing the number of oral medications available before insulin use [2][15]. - The global market for GLP-1 drugs is substantial, with projected sales of approximately $51.8 billion in 2024, of which $37.71 billion (73%) is for diabetes products and $14.06 billion (27%) for obesity products, indicating strong future growth potential for oral GLP-1 small molecules [20][21]. Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From April 14 to April 20, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: Boan Biotechnology (68.01%), Fuhong Hanlin (18.71%), Junsheng Tai (16.20%), Nothland (11.00%), and Yifang Biotechnology (10.48%). The top five companies with stock price declines were: Youzhiyou (-21.19%), Beihai Kangcheng (-16.57%), Aidi Pharmaceutical (-9.48%), Geely Pharmaceutical (-7.84%), and Haishike (-7.54%) [1][11]. Key Analysis of the New Drug Industry - Eli Lilly's Orforglipron demonstrated a significant reduction in HbA1c levels, with an average decrease from a baseline of 8.0% to between 1.3% and 1.6%. Over 65% of patients achieved an A1C level of ≤6.5%, and patients lost an average of 7.9% of their body weight during the trial [15][16]. New Drug Approvals and Applications - This week, three new drugs or new indications were approved for market entry in China, with 299 new drug INDs approved and 38 new drug INDs accepted for review [3][24]. Domestic New Drug Industry Highlights - On April 18, 2025, Kangfang Biologics' monoclonal antibody injection for IL-12/IL-23 received NMPA approval for psoriasis treatment [4]. - On April 17, 2025, BeiGene's new BCL2 inhibitor was prioritized for review for chronic lymphocytic leukemia and small lymphocytic lymphoma [4]. Overseas New Drug Industry Highlights - Eli Lilly's Orforglipron Phase 3 trial results were announced on April 18, 2025 [7]. - On April 16, 2025, Eisai and Biogen's Leqembi for Alzheimer's disease received EU approval [7]. - On April 14, 2025, Bristol-Myers Squibb's PD-1 inhibitor was approved by the FDA for liver cancer treatment [7].

2025 年 04 月 20 日 平安银行(000001.SZ) 压力犹存——平安银行 2025 年一季报点评 事件：平安银行公布 2025 年一季报，营收同比增长-13.1%，拨 备前利润同比增长-12.9%,归母净利润同比增长-5.6%，各项业绩 指标较 2024 年报增速均有所回落，我们点评如下： 平安银行今年一季报业绩增长拖累因素主要在于生息资产同比 收缩、净息差下行、非息收入增长放缓；拨备计提同比减轻与税 收减少则对利润增长形成支撑。 生息资产扩张乏力。今年一季度，平安银行生息资产（日均余 额口径）同比增速为-0.15%，连续 2 个季度为负增长，并且从 2023 年开启结构转型以来，资产负债表扩张较为乏力，目前来看这种 迹象也并未改善。观察今年一季度的数据，信贷、债券投资等主 要的生息资产科目均增长较慢，同业业务增长尚可，较慢的扩表 速度也给营收增长、客群经营、市场份额的稳定带来压力。 进一步观察信贷增长趋势。①从日均余额口径来看，信贷同比增速为 -1.41%，其中一般对公信贷增长较快，而票据贴现、零售信贷仍为负 增长，并且 Q1 新增信贷规模同样呈现"一般对公贷款强、零售与票据 贴现弱"的特征。 ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 低位震荡，下行风险或有限 本期要点：低位震荡，下行风险或有限 上期提到，A 股或已企稳，随后超跌的科技成长方向或有可能迎来机 会。事后来看，除了银行地产之外，半导体板块上期表现也相对不错。 考虑到大盘前期已经出现了八连阳，而周五则出现了小幅阴线，短期 大盘或将转入震荡格局。但是与此同时，当前主要宽基指数的高频温 度计和低频温度计均值都小于 34，这意味着当前市场整体处于偏低 位，下行风险或有限。 上期我们曾将本轮反弹的技术面背景与春节前进行类比，并认为本轮 反弹有望因为近期国内政策面的加持而最终使得市场震荡向上。因 此，即使未来在低位震荡过程中出现了二次探底形态，都应该以积极 的心态来寻找机会。 行业板块上，在当前低位震荡过程中，模型建议偏均衡配置电子、计 算机、机械设备、地产、建筑装饰、交通运输、银行等板块。在具体 指标维度上，我们观察到从成交金额占比的角度看，过去两周内 TMT 板块的成交占比已有从低点小幅回升的迹象，消费板块的成交占比则 已经从底部回升了近两个月。 此外，从行业相对温度计这一性价比角度看，当前以电子板块为主的 成长板块仍然处于偏低（对应性价比越高）位置， ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 晶方科技(603005.SH) 汽车 CIS 业务高增长，盈利弹性持续释 1）2024 年公司实现销售收入 11.30 亿元，同比+23.72%；实现营业 利润 2.88 亿元，同比+79.03%；实现归母净利润 2.53 亿元，同比 +68.40%。 2）24 年四季度公司实现销售收入 3 亿元，同比+29.66%；实现营业 利润 0.72 亿元，同比+185.58%；实现归母净利润 0.68 亿元，同比 +73.23%。 费用率管控有效，盈利能力显著提升 2024 年公司综合毛利率为 43.28%，同比+5.13pcts，其中芯片封装及 测试/光学器件/设计业务的毛利率分别为 44.83%/37.26%/67.73%， 同比+9.06/-5.72/+29.74pcts；公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别为 0.58%/8.25%/14.12%,同比-0.34/+0.22/-0.75pcts；公司净利率为 22.39%，同比+5.93pcts。 CMOS 晶圆级封装技术领先，车用领域实现快速增长 公司专注高端封装，拥有 WLCSP、TSV 等先进封装技术，具备 8 英寸、 12 ...