Economic Performance - In January-February, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, a significant drop of 2.9 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, down 6.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weakened economic recovery momentum[4] - Local government fund budget revenue dropped by 10.7% year-on-year, a decline of 15.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - Future fiscal policy will focus on enhancing social security systems to boost consumer spending and support economic transformation[5] - The current fiscal expenditure growth rate is 3.4%, down 6.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in fiscal support[4] Real Estate Market - New and second-hand housing sales have shown continuous improvement, suggesting that the real estate market's drag on the economy may be less severe than last year[7] - The performance of the real estate market is expected to provide support for year-on-year economic growth rates[7] Technology Sector Trends - Recent trading around technology stocks has shown signs of retreat, with a shift towards dividend and cyclical stocks reflecting a decrease in risk appetite[10] - The market's focus may shift towards undervalued cyclical stocks during the adjustment phase of technology stocks, indicating a potential change in investment strategy[10] Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China announced a net injection of 630 billion yuan through MLF operations, marking the first net injection since July of the previous year[11] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate, with a slight adjustment in the pace of balance sheet reduction, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook[15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 9.22 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 8.02 CNY [3][9]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 45.478 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, and a net profit of 3.52 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.41% [1]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profits in 2025, driven by improved domestic demand and continued growth in international markets and emerging businesses [9][10]. - The company has a strong focus on cash dividends and share buyback policies, with a planned dividend of 2.603 billion CNY for 2024, representing a dividend payout ratio of 73.95% [9]. Revenue and Profitability - The core business segments, including cranes and concrete machinery, generated revenues of 14.786 billion CNY and 8.013 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 23.35% and 6.8% [2]. - Emerging businesses, such as aerial work, earthmoving, and agricultural machinery, showed significant growth, with revenues of 6.833 billion CNY, 6.671 billion CNY, and 4.65 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year increases of 19.74%, 0.34%, and 122.29% [2]. - The company's gross margin and net margin improved to 28.17% and 8.81%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 0.63 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points [3]. Internationalization and Market Position - Domestic and overseas revenues were 22.098 billion CNY and 23.38 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -24.24% and +30.58%, marking a historical milestone where overseas revenue accounted for over 50% of total revenue [2]. - The company has established a strong market position in the domestic market for its main products and is rapidly expanding its overseas business, with export revenue growing by over 35% [2]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 53.03 billion CNY, 62.52 billion CNY, and 73.79 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 16.6%, 17.9%, and 18% [9][11]. - Net profits are expected to reach 4.9 billion CNY, 6.12 billion CNY, and 7.6 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 39.2%, 24.8%, and 24.2% [9][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 55.4 CNY [5][10]. Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 87.56% year-on-year, reaching 2.139 billion CNY in 2024, driven primarily by the rapid growth in container coatings [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 211 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.30%, although the growth rate was lower than that of revenue due to a decline in product prices affecting gross margins [2][3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, aiming to reach 236,000 tons by the end of 2025, up from 90,000 tons at the beginning of 2024, indicating strong confidence in business development [9]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.139 billion CNY, with quarterly growth rates of 31.02%, 45.90%, 177.39%, and 102.38% respectively, showcasing a strong upward trend [2][3]. - The gross margin for the year was 20.70%, down 9.62 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declines in the gross margins of container and wind power coatings [2]. Product Segments - Container Coatings: Revenue reached 1.726 billion CNY, up 195.54% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 111,400 tons and an average price of 15,500 CNY per ton [3]. - Wind Power Coatings: Revenue was 393 million CNY, down 23.03% year-on-year, with an average price of 30,700 CNY per ton, reflecting a significant price drop [3]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company successfully reduced its expense ratio to 8.38%, down 4.63 percentage points year-on-year, leading to improved cash flow performance with a net inflow of 55 million CNY [4][8]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 9.86%, down 4.78 percentage points year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than that of the gross margin due to effective cost control [8]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.887 billion CNY, 2.091 billion CNY, and 2.377 billion CNY, with expected net profits of 263 million CNY, 319 million CNY, and 374 million CNY respectively [10][11]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the industrial coatings sector, with a strong focus on expanding its market share in container and wind power coatings, as well as venturing into new business areas such as ship coatings and photovoltaic coatings [9].

2025 年 03 月 25 日 建筑 1-2 月广义基建投资同比提速，看好政 本周投资建议： 策发力下全年基建投资稳增 今年以来，随着更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策逐步落 地，存量政策和增量政策协同效应不断增强，1-2 月，全国固定资产 投资（不含农户）同比增长 4.1%，较上年同期提速 0.9pct。其中， 基础设施投资增长 5.6%，比上年全年加快 1.2pct，或由于专项债发 行提速叠加"两重"项目支持力度进一步加大，政策加力扩围，实物工 作量加快形成，基础设施投资增长提速，政策效应持续显现。 2025 年 1-2 月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）5.26 万亿元，同 比增长 4.1%,增速比 2024 年全年加快 0.9pct。1-2 月份，狭义、广 义基础设施投资累计同比分别为 5.60%、9.94%（较上年同期-0.7pct、 +0.99pct），广义基建投资增速同比提升。在基建三大分项中，电热 气水投资增速持续维持高位，1-2 月，电热气水投资同比增长 25.4%(较上年同期+0.1pct)；其次为水利、环境和公共设施管理业投 资同比增加 8.5%(较上年同期+8.1pct)，交通运 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [5][6] Core Views - The company achieved excellent performance in its 2024 annual report, with revenue of 13.253 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.408 billion yuan, up 27.78% year-on-year [1][2] - Future growth is driven by three main factors: customer autonomy, product high-endization, and business globalization [4] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company maintained high revenue growth, achieving 13.253 billion yuan, with significant contributions from core customers such as Chery and Wanjie, which sold 2.4689 million and 389,800 units respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 38.62% and 264.65% [2] - The average selling price (ASP) of the company's headlights in 2024 was 203.13 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.31% [2] - The company's gross profit margin before accounting adjustments was 20.31%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in customer structure [2] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net cash flow from operating activities in 2024 was 909 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.42%, mainly due to increased cash received from sales [3] - As of the end of 2024, accounts receivable and notes receivable were 1.592 billion yuan and 4.517 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 260 million yuan and 1.451 billion yuan compared to the end of 2023 [3] Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.027 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.73% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.78% [3] - The adjusted gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 20.96%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points year-on-year and 1.02 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] Future Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its customer base by deepening cooperation with traditional automakers and successfully entering partnerships with new energy vehicle manufacturers [4] - The company has established three wholly-owned overseas subsidiaries and is expanding its global market presence, including new customers like Toyota in Japan [4] Valuation and Price Target - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.85 billion yuan, 2.29 billion yuan, and 2.79 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19.1, 15.5, and 12.7 times [5][11] - A target price of 162 yuan per share is set for the next six months, based on a 25 times PE ratio [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 15.76 CNY, maintaining the rating [5]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its main business, with a focus on intelligent equipment manufacturing and a leading position in the robotics and embodied intelligence sectors [2][3]. - The company has successfully filled a gap in the domestic market with the launch of its first 300-horsepower gasoline outboard motor, breaking the monopoly of American and Japanese manufacturers [2]. - The company is actively pursuing an "1+N" external expansion strategy, focusing on strategic investments that align with its main business, and has made significant strides in the smart robotics industry through investments in leading firms [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating revenue reached 4.778 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 501 million CNY, up 15.54% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 30.08%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points year-on-year, supported by a decline in raw material and energy prices [4]. - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a significant decrease in expense ratios, with the total expense ratio for 2024 at 12.65%, down 3.15 percentage points year-on-year [4][8]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 5.450 billion CNY, 6.255 billion CNY, and 7.207 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.07%, 14.77%, and 15.22% [9]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 600 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.84% [9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from emerging sectors such as robotics, embodied intelligence, digital printing, and smart factories, indicating strong future growth potential [9].

2025 年 03 月 18 日 农林牧渔 消费回升幅度有限，短期内猪价或窄幅 震荡 生猪养殖：消费回升幅度有限，短期内猪价或窄幅震荡 价格端：本周生猪均价 14.57 元/kg，周环比-0.07%，两周环比-0.44%； 仔猪价格 604 元/头，周环比+7.86%，两周环比+3.85%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 20.79 元/kg，周环比-0.22%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 16.70 万头，周环比变动+2.98%。 周观点：消费回升幅度有限，短期内猪价或窄幅震荡。本周生猪价格 窄幅调整，根据涌益咨询点评，北方区域部分省份头部企业缩量出栏, 对价格形成拉涨作用;南方市场猪价多数趋稳，养殖端多按正常节奏 出栏,市场猪源充裕。从 3 月整体需求表现来看，首先正月过后消费 虽有回升，但需求缺失明显利好带动，单靠家庭消费较难支撑宰量大 幅提升，本周屠宰厂宰量窄幅波动为主，市场无明显波动因素行情保 持窄调趋势。预计短期内价格或仍维持窄幅震荡调整,但需观察二次 育肥入场情绪及养殖公司出栏节奏变化。 家禽养殖：白羽肉鸡价格继续上涨，白羽鸡苗稳中偏强 周观点：据我的钢铁网显示，周内种蛋价格小幅拉 ...

周度经济观察 ————开门红的经济数据成色几何？ 袁方1束加沛2 张端怡（联系人）3 2025 年 3 月 18 日 内容提要 1-2 月投资和消费活动走强，出口小幅减速，最终导致经济在去年的高水平 上轻微下滑。经济高增长背后更多与稳增长政策的效果有关，而市场主体的内生 增长动能不强。 国投证券宏观定期报告 往后看，二季度经济往往会呈现出季节性走弱的态势，而经济下滑的斜率更 多取决于房地产市场的表现与政策的持续性。当前房地产市场处于微妙的平衡 阶段，稳增长政策在基建领域仍在发力，同时消费领域正在经历新的政策模式。 需要密切留意这些领域的变化。 考虑到今年经济下行的斜率趋缓，以及此前市场对降息的过度定价，我们倾 向于认为长端利率年内的低点或许在今年初已经出现。今年债券存在阶段性机 会，比如资金面的短期转松、经济的季节性回落，不过全年来看或许较为逆风。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 证券研究报告/国投证券宏观定期报告 第 1 页，共 13 页 2025 年 3 月 1宏观分析师，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师，shujp@essen ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the building materials industry, indicating an expected investment return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the second-hand housing market remains robust, with significant year-on-year increases in transaction volumes, particularly in first-tier cities, which is expected to drive demand for building materials [3][9]. - The government is implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on both supply and demand sides, which is anticipated to further support the building materials sector [2]. - Price increases announced by leading companies in the building materials sector signal an improvement in profitability, as competition on the supply side is easing [8][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January to March 16, 2025, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities increased by 34.3% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a 45.2% increase [3]. - The report notes that the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities have stabilized, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% [7]. Policy Environment - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds for local governments in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supporting real estate investments and addressing local government debts [2]. Industry Dynamics - Leading companies in the building materials sector, such as Nippon Paint and Oriental Yuhong, have announced price increases ranging from 1% to 5% for various products, indicating a trend towards improved profitability [8][9]. - The report suggests that the focus on consumer (C-end) business and the release of demand from home decoration subsidies will benefit the building materials sector [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company with a target price of 125.20 CNY over the next six months, compared to a current stock price of 109.80 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company, Xianglou New Materials, is a leader in the domestic high-end precision stamping materials market, with a stable profit margin and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% in revenue and 29% in net profit from 2018 to 2023. The average gross margin and net margin are 22% and 11%, respectively [1][8]. - The company is positioned to lead the domestic substitution of high-end precision stamping materials in the automotive parts sector, leveraging advantages in delivery time, cost-effectiveness, and service [1][2]. - Xianglou is the only domestic manufacturer innovating materials for harmonic reducer flexible wheels, which are critical for humanoid robots, and is currently in the testing phase with potential clients [3][7]. Summary by Sections Main Business - The company has a solid foundation in the automotive high-end precision stamping materials market, contributing significantly to its revenue. In the first half of 2024, automotive precision stamping materials accounted for 87.89% of total revenue [16][25]. - The company has established stable partnerships with well-known automotive parts manufacturers, achieving a market share of approximately 19% in the domestic automotive precision stamping materials sector [6][24]. New Business - Xianglou has a strong competitive advantage in the harmonic reducer flexible wheel materials, which are essential for the production of humanoid robots. The company is currently developing materials for various components, including planetary gears [3][7]. - The potential market for flexible wheel materials is estimated to be between 1.4 billion to 2.8 billion CNY, assuming a production scale of 1 million humanoid robots [3][7]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.57 billion, 1.83 billion, and 2.16 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 202 million, 253 million, and 307 million CNY [8][9]. - The report indicates a favorable valuation with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 43X, 34X, and 28X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8].