Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of over 20.5% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations despite a significant decrease in sales volume [1]. - The company anticipates delivering between 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 17.9% [2]. - The launch of the first pure electric SUV, i8, is scheduled for July, with the VLA model also expected to be released [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1, the company sold 93,000 vehicles, with revenue reaching 25.93 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [1]. - The Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 2.5% [1]. - The company projects total revenues of 155.5 billion RMB, 197.9 billion RMB, and 238.3 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company plans to introduce more affordable MPV and sedan models based on market demand after the launch of the L series and i series [2]. - The MEGA Home model has been well-received, with over 90% of MEGA orders being for this version, indicating strong market insight and product definition capabilities [3]. - The company is expanding its supercharging network, with 2,328 supercharging stations and 12,689 supercharging piles nationwide, enhancing the appeal of its electric vehicles [4]. Sales and Production Forecast - The company expects to sell approximately 580,000, 750,000, and 870,000 vehicles in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. - The gross margin is projected to be around 19% in Q2 due to increased promotional efforts [2]. Valuation - The target market capitalization is set at 280.9 billion RMB, with a target price of approximately 131 HKD per share, corresponding to a 25x P/E ratio for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved record high revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 111.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [1][3] - The smartphone segment regained the top market share in China, with a global shipment of 41.8 million units, a 3% increase year-on-year, and a global market share of 14.1% [1][3] - The IoT business is focusing on high-end and international expansion, with revenue reaching 32.3 billion yuan and a gross margin of 25.2% in Q1 2025 [2][3] - The automotive segment reported revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, with the new SUV model YU7 expected to become a bestseller upon pricing announcement [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are 486.7 billion yuan in 2025, 634.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 764.8 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 30%, and 21% respectively [3][5] - Adjusted net profit for the main consumer electronics business is expected to be 41.9 billion yuan in 2025, 52.0 billion yuan in 2026, and 61.1 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 25%, 24%, and 18% respectively [3][5] - The report anticipates a significant increase in automotive adjusted net profit, projecting a turnaround to 10.1 billion yuan in 2026 and 20.6 billion yuan in 2027 [3][5] Key Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including revenue, adjusted net profit, and earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2023 to 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][13] - The expected adjusted EPS is projected to be 1.6 yuan in 2025, 2.4 yuan in 2026, and 3.1 yuan in 2027 [3][5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 29 in 2025 to 15 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of over 20.5% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations despite a significant decrease in sales volume [1]. - The company anticipates delivering between 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 17.9% [2]. - The launch of the first pure electric SUV, i8, is scheduled for July, with a subsequent model, i6, expected in September [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1, the company sold 93,000 vehicles, with revenue reaching 25.93 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [1]. - The Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 2.5% [1]. - The company projects total revenues of 155.5 billion RMB, 197.9 billion RMB, and 238.3 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. Product Development - The MEGA Home model has been well-received, with over 90% of MEGA orders being for the Home version, indicating strong market insight and product definition capabilities [3]. - The VLA model, which enhances the driving experience through advanced AI, is set to be released alongside the i8 in July [4]. Market Position - The company has established a robust supercharging network with 2,328 stations and 12,689 charging piles nationwide, enhancing the appeal of its electric vehicles [4]. - The company aims to introduce more competitively priced MPVs and sedans based on market demand after the launch of its L series and i series models [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved record high revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 111.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [1][3] - The smartphone segment regained the top market share in China, with revenue of 50.6 billion yuan and a gross margin of 12.4% in Q1 2025, while global smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units, a 3% increase [1][3] - The IoT business continues to focus on high-end and international markets, generating 32.3 billion yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 25.2% in Q1 2025 [2][3] - The automotive segment reported revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, with the new SUV model YU7 expected to become a bestseller upon pricing announcement [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are 486.7 billion yuan, 634.5 billion yuan, and 764.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 30%, and 21% [3][5] - Adjusted net profit for the core consumer electronics business is expected to be 41.9 billion yuan, 52.0 billion yuan, and 61.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 24%, and 18% [3][5] - The report anticipates a target price of 60 HKD for Xiaomi Group based on a P/E ratio of 20x for 2026 estimates [3][6]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 02 年 月 日 房地产 单月销售额同比来看，重点房企中绿城、中海、滨江同比正增，其余多数处于同 比下降状态，与货值供应等因素相关，企业层面无超预期表现，与城市走势基本 一致。从 2025 年 1-5 月累计操盘口径销售金额来看，保利发展最高为 1068.1 亿 元，其次为绿城中国、中海地产、华润置地、招商蛇口，分别实现销售金额 964.4、 858.6、772.5、638.0 亿元。从累计操盘口径销售金额增速看，TOP40 房企有 20 家实现同比正增长。其中能建城发同比表现最佳，累计同比增长 201.7%，其次为 鸿荣源 185.3%、深业集团 170.8%、中建智地 102.8%、电建地产 92.6%。重点 房企 1-5 月操盘销售额累计同比来看，越秀地产 40.3%、华发股份 21.4%、建发 房产 2.7%、绿城中国-2.3%、华润置地-7.4%、滨江集团-8.5%、保利发展-10.6%、 中海地产-11.1%、招商蛇口-11.9%。 投资建议：维持行业"增持"评级。我们认为重点关注房地产相关股票有以下理 由：1、政策受基本面倒逼 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][33][7] Core Insights - The real estate market showed a lukewarm performance in May, with a slight month-on-month increase of 2% in sales for the top 100 real estate companies. Cumulative sales from January to May decreased by 7% year-on-year [1][12] - The report emphasizes that the current policies are expected to be more forceful than those in 2008 and 2014, indicating a significant shift in the market dynamics [4][33] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and a few mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4][33] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 295.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% but a month-on-month increase of 3.8%. Cumulative sales from January to May reached 1313.71 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year [1][12][30] - The top 31-50 and top 21-30 tiers of companies showed positive year-on-year growth in sales, while the top 10 companies experienced a decline of 11.1% [2][16] Company Performance - Among the top 40 companies, 20 reported positive year-on-year growth in sales. Poly Developments led with sales of 106.81 billion yuan, followed by Greentown China and China Overseas Development [3][30][31] - Notable performers included Nengjian Chengfa with a year-on-year growth of 201.7%, and Hongrongyuan with 185.3% [3][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks due to the expected policy-driven market changes. Recommended stocks include Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments among others [4][33] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring supply-side policies and the performance of quality real estate companies in first and second-tier cities [4][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a gradual emergence of cost support. The industry is awaiting favorable policy changes to restore confidence [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The coal mining market is experiencing a narrow adjustment with slight supply tightening in major production areas. Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs [13] - Port inventories are continuously decreasing, but there is still a lack of upward momentum in prices due to limited demand from downstream buyers [14] - The shipping market has seen a slight increase in the number of vessels at northern ports, indicating some recovery in logistics [27] Key Companies - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Xinji Energy (601918.SH), all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [9] - China Shenhua is highlighted as a central enterprise with strong performance, while companies like Qinfa and New Hope Energy are noted for their potential turnaround [10] Price Movements - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the port is reported at 620 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. However, the market is characterized by a lack of strong demand from power plants, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude [37] - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in various grades, indicating a bearish market sentiment [40][53] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the coal industry will maintain its critical role in China's energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with a potential increase in industry concentration [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a cost support level that could lead to a rebound if favorable policies are introduced [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The CITIC Coal Index is at 3,258.46 points, down 0.54%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.54 percentage points, ranking 23rd among CITIC sector performance [2][76] - The coal market is currently buyer-driven, with procurement strategies and intensity determining coal price movements. The upcoming peak summer demand and potential price stabilization policies are critical factors to monitor [10][37] Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The market is stable with slight adjustments. Production in major coal-producing areas is tightening slightly, while downstream demand remains primarily for essential needs. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range due to limited demand from power plants [11][13][14] - **Coking Coal**: The market continues to decline, with prices under pressure from weak demand and high inventory levels. The report emphasizes the need to monitor production cuts from coking coal enterprises as prices approach marginal costs [10][40] - **Coke**: Profit margins are shrinking, and procurement remains focused on essential needs. The overall production of coke is still increasing, but market sentiment is negative due to declining steel prices [58][75] Investment Strategy - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, highlighting their potential for recovery. It also suggests monitoring companies like Qinfa and Xinji Energy for their performance amidst current challenges [10][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The introduction of the Stablecoin Ordinance in Hong Kong marks a significant step towards financial innovation while ensuring stability in the digital asset sector [1][3] - Stablecoins serve as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem, providing stability and liquidity, which are essential for broader adoption [2][12] - The RWA (Real World Asset) market is rapidly expanding, with a total market size reaching approximately $23 billion, and is expected to grow significantly in the coming years [4][8][47] Summary by Sections Stablecoin Overview - Stablecoins are digital assets designed to maintain value stability by pegging their price to fiat currencies like the US dollar, addressing the volatility of traditional cryptocurrencies [2][12] - The main types of stablecoins include fiat-backed, crypto-backed, commodity-backed, algorithmic, and hybrid models, with USDT and USDC being the most prominent [21][22] Hong Kong Stablecoin Legislation - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) initiated public consultations on stablecoin regulation in early 2022, leading to the formal introduction of the Stablecoin Ordinance in May 2025 [3][26][31] - The ordinance requires stablecoin issuers to obtain a license from the HKMA, ensuring that reserve assets are fully backed and regularly audited [3][39] Globalization of Debt and Stablecoins - The RWA market is experiencing rapid growth, with significant projects being launched in various sectors, including energy and agriculture [4][41][42] - Major players like Circle are planning to go public, indicating strong market interest and potential for further expansion in the stablecoin sector [38][40] Beneficiaries in the Industry - Companies involved in stablecoin infrastructure include ZhongAn Online, Sifang Jichuang, and others, while RWA projects are supported by firms like Longxin Group and GCL-Poly Energy [51]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Increase" rating for the electric equipment sector [6] Core Views - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the new energy vehicle after-sales service market due to the rapid increase in the number of new energy vehicles [4] - The green electricity direct connection initiative is expected to enhance the low-carbon competitiveness of China's manufacturing sector [14] - Strategic collaborations in hydrogen energy are being established to promote green low-carbon mining complexes and logistics platforms [16] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation - **Photovoltaics**: The National Energy Administration has issued a notice to promote green electricity direct connection, which allows renewable energy to supply power directly to single users, enhancing the clarity of electricity supply sources. The self-consumption ratio of renewable energy should not be less than 60% of total available generation by 2030 [14] - **Wind Power & Grid**: The Jiangsu Guoxin Dafeng offshore wind project has made significant progress with the successful laying of the first 35kV submarine cable. The report highlights the acceleration of nuclear power construction in both China and the US, with plans to start 10 large nuclear power plants by 2030 [15] - **Hydrogen & Energy Storage**: A strategic cooperation agreement has been signed among Yitai Group, Shuangliang Energy, and Yipai Hydrogen to develop a green low-carbon mining complex in Inner Mongolia. The report recommends focusing on leading companies in hydrogen compression technology [16][17] 2. New Energy Vehicles - The number of newly registered energy vehicles in China reached 11.25 million in 2024, accounting for 41.83% of new registrations. The total ownership of new energy vehicles is projected to reach 31.4 million by the end of 2024, a 261-fold increase since 2014 [26] - The report identifies pain points in the battery after-sales market, including data transparency and high maintenance technical difficulties. A new AI model for battery health assessment has been initiated to address these issues [27][28] 3. Energy Storage - The average bidding price for W3 energy storage systems in May is reported to be between 0.423 and 0.651 RMB/Wh. The report suggests focusing on large-scale energy storage companies with high growth certainty, recommending companies like Sungrow Power and Eastern Daybreak [21][24] 4. Industry Price Dynamics - The report provides insights into the price dynamics of the photovoltaic industry chain, indicating fluctuations in prices for polysilicon, solar cells, and modules [31]