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东山精密:轻装上阵,折叠屏+机器人+眼镜新产品新周期
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-16 00:26
Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of new product cycles for Dongshan Precision, focusing on foldable screens, robotics, and smart glasses, indicating a strategic shift towards innovative technologies [3][7]. Company Summaries Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) - In 2024, Dongshan Precision is projected to achieve revenue of 36.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 44.55% to 1.09 billion yuan due to operational adjustments in the LED business [7]. - The company anticipates a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with net profit forecasted between 434 million and 463 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 50%-60% [7]. - The demand for PCB and precision components is expected to rise due to the expansion of AI applications in ICT infrastructure and consumer products, leading to an increase in average selling prices (ASP) [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 43.6 billion and 50.7 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 3.8 billion and 4.8 billion yuan, reflecting substantial growth rates of 248.6% and 26.4% [7]. Huakin Technology (603296.SH) - Huakin Technology has established itself as a leading ODM manufacturer in the global smart hardware sector, with a diversified product structure that includes smartphones, laptops, and data center products [3]. - The company is expanding into new application areas such as servers, automotive electronics, and robotics, driven by the increasing demand for AI computing power and smart vehicle technologies [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 109.25 billion, 129.36 billion, and 152.09 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 2.88 billion, 3.41 billion, and 4.05 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 28.0%, 18.4%, and 17.6% [3]. Hongcheng Environment (600461.SH) - Hongcheng Environment is experiencing growth in both revenue and profit, supported by an improving operational management and a robust cash flow [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of its business segments, with net profits projected at 1.28 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.44 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [7]. Bojun Technology (300926.SZ) - Bojun Technology is set to benefit from the release of core customer models and the ramp-up of new product capacities, with Q1 2025 net profit expected to be between 130 million and 160 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30%-60% [9]. - The company is focusing on lightweight and electronic components, enhancing its production capabilities and expanding into new product areas such as white body and battery packs [10].
洪城环境(600461):营收利润双增,产业链持续完善支撑业绩增长
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-15 09:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue and profit growth in 2024, with revenue reaching 8.23 billion and net profit at 1.19 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 2.2% and 9.9% respectively [1] - The company is focused on enhancing its operational efficiency and reducing costs across its various business segments, including water services and waste disposal [4] - The company has a robust cash flow, with net cash flow from operating activities at 1.97 billion, which is 14.2% higher than the previous year [3] Financial Performance - Revenue from the water supply business was 990 million, up 2.7% year-on-year, while wastewater treatment revenue was 2.5 billion, up 4.2% year-on-year [1] - The comprehensive gross margin for 2024 was 31.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improvements in gross margins across various segments [2] - The company plans to distribute 600 million in cash dividends for 2024, which is 50.1% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3] Business Development - The company is actively developing a "factory-network integration" operational model to enhance wastewater treatment efficiency [4] - It is expanding its clean energy initiatives, including distributed photovoltaic projects at wastewater treatment plants [4] - The company is also focusing on solid waste disposal and environmental governance, aiming for a zero-emission, green circular industry system [4] Future Outlook - The company has significant growth potential in its core businesses, with projected net profits of 1.28 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.44 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are 1.00, 1.06, and 1.12, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.8X, 9.3X, and 8.8X [5]
东山精密:轻装上阵,折叠屏+机器人+眼镜新产品新周期-20250415
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-15 06:23
证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 15 年 月 日 东山精密(002384.SZ) 轻装上阵,折叠屏+机器人+眼镜新产品新周期 东山精密发布 2024 年业绩快报和一季度业绩预告。2024 年公司实现营业收 入 367.91 亿元,同比增长 9.33%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 10.89 亿 元,同比下降 44.55%。2024 年公司针对 LED 业务优化运营管理,对部分低 效设备进行整合和优化,产生 1.64 亿资产处置损失,并对 LED 业务相关资产 计提了 5.95 亿资产减值损失,致使 2024 年归母净利润下降。 公司预告 2025 年一季度归母净利 4.34 亿元-4.63 亿元,同比增长 50%-60%。 受益于 AI 对 ICT 基建和消费产品的需求扩大,公司 PCB、精密组件等产品作 为消费电子、新能源汽车行业的基础零部件,ASP 显著提升,带动公司经营业 绩的提升。 FPC 双寡头竞争格局优势凸显+线宽线距设计难度提升,ASP 有望增长,AI 终端带动 PCB 设计难度加大,AI 服务器、AR/VR、折叠屏等产品催生需求 进一步增长,龙头公司 ...
东山精密(002384):轻装上阵,折叠屏+机器人+眼镜新产品新周期
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-15 06:02
证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 15 年 月 日 东山精密(002384.SZ) 汽车业务方面:公司主要为新能源汽车客户提供 PCB、车载屏、新能源汽车散 热件、电池包壳体、白车身、电池结构件等汽车组件等多种产品,全面拥抱美 国大客户,电子时代预计单车 PCB 价值量新增 4000 元,随着产能稼动率的提 升盈利能力也将进一步提升。 调整 LED 等非核心业务的盈利情况,2025 年有望大幅减亏。随着公司触控 显示模组开拓韩系大客户,以及 LED 显示器件领域加快推进与国际客户的合 作,产品结构也得到进一步优化,拉动产能稼动率,盈利能力也将提升。 盈利预测及投资建议:我们预计公司在 2025/2026 年分别实现营业收入 436/507 亿元,同比增长 18.6%/16.3%,实现归母净利润 38/48 亿元,同比 增长 248.6%/26.4%,当前股价对应 2025/2026 年 PE 分别为 11/9X,维持 "买入"评级。 风险提示:消费电子拓展不及预期;新能源扩产不及预期;行业竞争加剧;关 键假设有误差风险。 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | ...
博俊科技(300926):核心客户车型放量+新产品产能释放,带动公司业绩超预期
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-15 00:40
博俊科技(300926.SZ) 核心客户车型放量+新产品产能释放,带动公司业绩超预期 事件:公司发布 2025 年 Q1 业绩预告。2025 年 Q1,公司预计实现归母 净利润 1.3-1.6 亿元,同比增长 30%-60%;扣非归母净利润 1.3-1.5 亿 元,同比增长 30%-60%。 业绩超预期,主要系受益于核心客户车型放量+新产品产能释放。公司业 绩高速增长,我们预计主要受益于新能源车客户订单放量+公司车身模块 化产品产能加快释放。Q1 国内新能源车销量 307.5 万辆,同比+47%,其 中小鹏销量 9.4 万辆,同比+331%,理想销量 9.3 万辆,同比+16%,吉 利销量 70 万辆,同比+48%,长安销量 70.5 万辆,同比+2%。公司和比 亚迪等客户也有多个项目在配套,主力客户均处在强车型周期,预计随新 车发布及交付,收入有望继续高增。 车身工艺布局全面,打造白车身总成供应商。在零部件轻量化、电子化的 趋势下,行业将逐步实行产品升级,实现向集成化、模块化供货方向转变。 公司注重技术研发与创新,已掌握冲压、激光焊接、注塑、热成型、激光 切割、一体化压铸及装配等关键生产工艺和技术,且具有较 ...
关注信贷回升的持续性
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-15 00:35
Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of credit demand in March, indicating a potential stabilization in the economy, although the impact of exports has yet to be fully realized [5] - The report suggests that monetary easing remains essential for sustaining domestic demand, with interest rates expected to trend downward [5] - The semiconductor industry is poised for growth due to stricter origin rules, which may favor domestic chip manufacturers [7] Macroeconomic Overview - In Q1, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with March showing a significant 12.4% rise, attributed to a low base effect and resilient external demand [3] - Imports, however, fell by 7% year-on-year, primarily due to declining commodity prices and weak domestic demand [3] - The overall tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on Chinese goods is approximately 105.6%, which could negatively impact China's exports by 8.5-10.7 percentage points [3] Fixed Income Analysis - The report notes a gradual recovery in the yield curve, with R007 dropping to 1.7%, the lowest since January 10, indicating a more accommodative stance from the central bank [5] - The report highlights that the spread between deposit certificates and funding costs has turned positive, suggesting further declines in deposit rates [5] Industry Insights Textile and Apparel - 361 Degrees reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with adult apparel sales increasing by 10-15% and e-commerce sales growing by 35-40% [8] - The company is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 1.31 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.66 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8] Healthcare - Kaili Medical's revenue for 2024 was 2.014 billion yuan, down 5.02% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit due to industry restructuring and increased competition [9] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with expectations of revenue growth of 20.7%, 19.6%, and 19.7% for 2025-2027 [10] Social Services - China Youth Travel Service is projected to achieve revenues of 10.6 billion, 11.3 billion, and 12 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from the recovery in outbound tourism [13] Consumer Electronics - Edifier reported a revenue increase of 9.27% year-on-year for 2024, with a focus on brand building and new product investments [14] - The company anticipates revenues of 3.40 billion, 3.96 billion, and 4.63 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [16] Home Appliances - Ninebot's two-wheeler business continues to grow, with a 76.6% increase in sales volume, while its robotics segment saw a 323.5% increase in sales [18] - The company expects net profits of 1.63 billion, 2.24 billion, and 2.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027, driven by growth in both segments [18]
固定收益点评:关注信贷回升的持续性
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-14 11:21
证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 14 年 月 日 固定收益点评 关注信贷回升的持续性 3 月信贷超预期,主要受企业短贷驱动。3 月新增信贷 36400 亿元,同比 多增 5500 亿元。分项来看,企业信贷维持高增,3 月企业新增中长期贷 款同比少增200亿元至15800亿元,企业短贷同比多增4600亿元至14400 亿元,而票据融资同比多增 514 亿元至-1986 亿元。3 月居民新增中长期 贷款同比多增 531 亿元至 5047 亿元,而居民新增短期贷款同比少增 67 亿元至 4841 亿元,高频数据显示商品房销售改善有限,居民信贷改善有 限。贷款回升主要受企业短贷驱动,持续性有待继续观察。 政府债券仍是社融的主要支撑项。3 月新增社融 58879 亿元,同比多增 10544 亿元,社融存量同比增长 8.4%,增速较上月回升 0.2 个百分点。 政府债券是主要支撑项目,其中政府债券净融资同比多增 10202 亿元至 14828 亿元,根据我们在《2025 年政府债发行规模及节奏怎么看?》一文 中的结论,伴随着超长期特别国债、注资特别国债和专项债"自发自审" 的落地 ...
漫步者(002351):业绩稳健增长,品牌建设与新产品投入加大
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-14 06:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance and growth potential [3][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.943 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 449 million yuan, up 7.06% year-on-year [1]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 40.35%, an increase of 2.19% compared to the previous year, showcasing the competitiveness of its products [1]. - The company is significantly investing in brand building and new product development, with sales expenses rising by 31.52% year-on-year due to increased advertising and labor costs [2]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in the AI and Open Wireless Sound (OWS) markets, with a focus on various forms of open headphones, which are expected to drive new growth [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from headphones was 1.841 billion yuan, a growth of 2.79%, while revenue from audio equipment reached 997 million yuan, growing by 20.39% [1]. - Domestic sales revenue was 2.312 billion yuan, up 11.57%, while export revenue was 631 million yuan, a growth of 1.61% [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 3.401 billion yuan, 3.956 billion yuan, and 4.627 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 538 million yuan, 622 million yuan, and 731 million yuan [3][4].
九号公司(689009):两轮车持续增长,机器人放量打开空间
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-14 03:39
证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 14 年 月 日 政策拉动行业置换提速,公司智能化领先行业。2024 年商务部等部门发 布以旧换新政策、2025 年政策持续,拉动行业置换需求,新国标政策驱动 行业向高端化、智能化发展。公司在高端市场产品力领先,未来在渠道拓 展、产品力持续赋能下公司规模及盈利能力有望持续提升。 盈利预测与投资建议。公司未来持续受益于两轮车增长及机器人放量,我 们预计公司 2025-2027 年实现归母净利润 16.3/22.4/28.9 亿元,同比增 长 50.1%/37.5%/29.0%,维持"增持"评级。 风险提示:原材料价格波动、汇率波动风险、市场需求不及预期。 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 10,222 | 14,196 | 18,313 | 22,708 | 27,249 | | 增长率 yoy(%) | 1.0 | 38.9 | 29.0 | 24.0 | 20.0 | ...
地产和物价有新变化
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-14 00:39
证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 04 14 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 地产和物价有新变化 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】3 月社融大超预期的背后——20250413 【宏观】高频半月观—地产和物价有新变化——20250413 【宏观】怎么看美国股债汇"三杀"?——兼评美国 3 月 CPI—— 20250411 【策略】个股业绩交易应何时卖出?——20250413 【金融工程】几乎所有规模指数确认日线级别下跌——20250413 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图:估值面、经济面与拥挤度好转—— 20250412 【金融工程】A 股"现金奶牛"策略:解构自由现金流中的 alpha—— 20250411 【固定收益】寻找不确定性中的确定性——20250413 【固定收益】2025 年政府债发行规模及节奏怎么看?——20250412 【固定收益】资金宽松,但杠杆下降——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250412 【银行】本周聚焦—六家银行披露一季度经营情况,多家银行股东或高 管公告增持——20250413 【银行】常熟银行(601128.SH)-拥抱村银改革新机遇,市占率有望提 升——2025 ...