证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 17 年 月 日 韦尔股份（603501.SH） 24 全年业绩接近预告上限，单季度营收再创历史新高 24 全年业绩接近预告上限，单季度营收再创历史新高。韦尔股份正式发 布 2024 全年业绩：实现营收 257.3 亿元（此前预告为 254.1-258.1 亿元）， yoy+22.4%，创下历史新高（前高为 2021 年 241 亿元），我们认为主要 得益于手机和汽车 CIS 更加丰富的产品组合在客户端持续放量；归母净利 33.2 亿元（此前预告为 31.6-33.6 亿元），接近预告上限，yoy+498%；扣 非归母净利 30.6 亿元，yoy+2115%。 单季度来看，24Q4 实现营收 68.2 亿元，yoy+14.9%，qoq+0.1%，单季 度营收再创历史新高；归母净利 9.5 亿元，yoy+406%，qoq-6%；扣非归 母净利 7.6 亿元，yoy+9266%，qoq-17%。 利润率方面，2024 全年实现毛利率 29.4%，yoy+7.7pcts，净利率 12.8%， yoy+10.2pcts；24Q4 毛利率 29. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a significant recovery in production and demand, with March crude steel daily output increasing by 5.2% year-on-year and 6.3% month-on-month, indicating a strong recovery in steel mills' production enthusiasm [2][6]. - The apparent consumption of steel in March 2025 reached 82.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with a notable acceleration in downstream demand [2]. - The net export of steel in March was 9.96 million tons, up 7.4% year-on-year, driven by price advantages and export factors [3]. Summary by Sections Production and Demand - In March 2025, crude steel production was 92.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a daily average of 2.995 million tons [6]. - The manufacturing sector showed strong growth, with the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) at 50.5, indicating expansion [2]. Export and Import Trends - March steel exports were 10.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, while imports decreased by 18.8% [6]. - Iron ore imports in March were 93.97 million tons, down 6.7% year-on-year, influenced by high port inventories [6]. Government Policy and Industry Outlook - The government is expected to continue implementing crude steel production controls to promote industry restructuring [3]. - The report suggests that with ongoing adjustments in supply-side policies and improving demand, the steel industry's fundamentals are likely to continue to improve [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in demand and favorable market conditions [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company's real estate business is experiencing short-term impairment, leading to a significant decline in 2024 performance, with a projected revenue of 701.3 billion and a net profit of 2.95 billion, down 77.5% year-on-year [1][4] - The supply chain operations remain stable, with a revenue of 508.94 billion, although net profit decreased by 11.3% [3][4] - The company is increasing its cash dividend payout ratio to 70%, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 7% based on the closing price [1][4] Summary by Sections Real Estate Business - The real estate segment generated revenue of 184.6 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 13.8% [2] - The company made provisions for inventory impairment totaling 37.1 billion, contributing to a net profit of 3.4 billion, an increase of 79.3% [2] - Total sales amount decreased by 30.4% to 159.7 billion, but the company improved its sales ranking to 7th in the industry [2] Supply Chain Operations - The supply chain operations reported revenue of 508.94 billion, down 14.2%, with a net profit of 3.51 billion [3] - The decline in net profit was primarily due to the absence of one-time gains from previous years [3] - The operational volume of major commodities exceeded 220 million tons, reflecting an increase of nearly 8% [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 699.8 billion, 709.4 billion, and 714.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 4.1 billion, 4.5 billion, and 4.9 billion [4][5] - The projected EPS for the next three years is 1.39, 1.53, and 1.65 [4][5] - The P/E ratios are expected to be 7.5, 6.8, and 6.3 for the same period [4][5]

奥浦迈（688293.SH） 培养基持续高增，海外市场表现靓丽，项目数增加巩固竞争优势 奥浦迈发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年实现营业收入 2.97 亿元，同比增长 22.26%；归母净利润 2105 万元，同比下滑 61.04%；扣非后归母净利润 659 万元，同比下滑 81.03%。分季度看，2024Q4 实现营业收入 8139 万元，同比 增长 13.93%；归母净利润-618 万元，同比下滑 156.95%；扣非后归母净利 润-1049 万元，同比下滑 446.72%。 观点：收入端稳健增长，固定成本增加、减值计提等多因素影响利润端增速不 及收入端。培养基延续高增态势，海外市场增长势头强劲，CDMO 平台产能 爬坡有望带动服务亏损收窄。海内外客户持续开拓，培养基客户数量及管线规 模增长显著，持续巩固领先竞争优势。 2024 年收入端稳健增长，多因素影响利润端增速不及收入端。行业融资环境 紧缩的背景下，公司收入端高速增长，展现了较强的经营韧性。利润端增速不 及收入端系多种因素影响：1）募投项目"奥浦迈 CDMO 生物药商业化生产平 台"投入运营，相关固定成本增加较多；2）计提长期资产减值损失 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The coal production in March 2025 increased by 9.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base effect from last year's production cuts in Shanxi [1][12] - Coal imports in March 2025 decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, with expectations of a slight decline in thermal coal imports for the year [2][15] - The decline in thermal power generation narrowed to 2.3% year-on-year in March 2025, indicating a slight recovery in overall power generation [3][18] - The crude steel production in March 2025 rose by 4.6% year-on-year, reflecting a stable demand in the steel market [4][30] Summary by Sections Production - In March 2025, the industrial raw coal output reached 440 million tons, marking a 9.6% increase year-on-year, with a daily average production of 14.21 million tons [1][12][13] Imports - March 2025 coal imports totaled 3.8732 million tons, down 6.4% from the previous year, with a total of 11.4846 million tons imported in the first quarter, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year [2][15][16] Demand - The total industrial power generation in March 2025 was 778 billion kWh, showing a 1.8% increase year-on-year, while thermal power generation saw a decline of 2.3% [3][18][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and China Qinfa, highlighting their potential for recovery and performance [5][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a significant recovery in production and demand, with March crude steel daily output increasing by 5.2% year-on-year and 6.3% month-on-month, indicating a strong recovery in steel mills' production enthusiasm [2][6]. - The apparent consumption of steel in March 2025 reached 82.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with a notable acceleration in downstream demand [2]. - The net export of steel in March was 9.96 million tons, up 7.4% year-on-year, driven by price advantages and export factors [3]. Summary by Sections Production and Demand - In March 2025, crude steel production was 92.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a daily average of 2.995 million tons [6]. - The manufacturing sector showed strong growth, with the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) at 50.5, indicating expansion [2]. Export and Import Trends - March steel exports were 10.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, while imports decreased by 18.8% [6]. - Iron ore imports in March were 93.97 million tons, down 6.7% year-on-year, influenced by high port inventories [6]. Government Policy and Industry Outlook - The government is expected to continue implementing crude steel production controls to promote industry restructuring, with some steel mills already announcing production cuts [3]. - The report suggests that the steel industry's medium to long-term fundamentals are likely to improve, supported by government fiscal measures and supply-side adjustments [7].

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 17 年 月 日 建发股份（600153.SH） 地产短期受减值拖累，2024 年业绩下滑 事件：公司 2025 年 4 月 14 日发布 2024 年年度报告。 现金分红比例提高至 70%，股息率 7%。公司 2024 年实现营业收入 7013 亿元，同比减少 8.2%；归母净利润 29.5 亿元，同比减少 77.5%；扣非归 母净利润 19 亿元，同比减少 20.9%。2024 年利润大幅下滑主要受上年同 期收购美凯龙 29.95%股份，确认重组收益 96.19 亿元的影响，剔除重组 收益后，公司 2024 年归母净利润同比减少 17.8%。2024 年度公司的现 金分红总方案为每 10 股派发现金红利 7 元，现金红利总额为 20.6 亿，分 红比例 70%，以 2025 年 4 月 14 日收盘价计算股息率约 7%。 地产业绩短期受减值拖累，建发房产销售额排名提升。2024 年房地产业 务营业收入 1846 亿元，同比增长 10.1%；毛利率 13.8%，同比+2.3pct； 归母净利润 3.4 亿元，同比增加 79.3%。其中 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 17 年 月 日 韦尔股份（603501.SH） 24 全年业绩接近预告上限，单季度营收再创历史新高 24 全年业绩接近预告上限，单季度营收再创历史新高。韦尔股份正式发 布 2024 全年业绩：实现营收 257.3 亿元（此前预告为 254.1-258.1 亿元）， yoy+22.4%，创下历史新高（前高为 2021 年 241 亿元），我们认为主要 得益于手机和汽车 CIS 更加丰富的产品组合在客户端持续放量；归母净利 33.2 亿元（此前预告为 31.6-33.6 亿元），接近预告上限，yoy+498%；扣 非归母净利 30.6 亿元，yoy+2115%。 单季度来看，24Q4 实现营收 68.2 亿元，yoy+14.9%，qoq+0.1%，单季 度营收再创历史新高；归母净利 9.5 亿元，yoy+406%，qoq-6%；扣非归 母净利 7.6 亿元，yoy+9266%，qoq-17%。 利润率方面，2024 全年实现毛利率 29.4%，yoy+7.7pcts，净利率 12.8%， yoy+10.2pcts；24Q4 毛利率 29. ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The first quarter GDP growth rate was in line with previous values and exceeded market expectations, while nominal GDP growth remained low [7] - March economic data showed a comprehensive outperformance, with supply continuing to outpace demand [7] - Looking ahead, the impact of tariff shocks may gradually become apparent, making it more challenging to maintain a "5%" growth target for the year [7] Group 2: Coal Industry Insights - In March, coal production increased by 9.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base effect from last year [10] - Coal imports in March were 38.73 million tons, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year, with expectations for a total of around 38.5 million tons for the year, down 4.9% [11] - The decline in thermal power generation narrowed to 2.3% year-on-year in March, indicating a slight recovery in the sector [12] Group 3: Steel Industry Insights - In March, crude steel production rose by 4.6% year-on-year, with a daily average iron water output increase of 6.9% [13] - The profitability of steel mills improved, with 53.7% of steel mills reporting profits as of April 11 [16] Group 4: Electronic Industry Insights - The company Weir Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 25.73 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, achieving a historical high [17] - The net profit for 2024 was 3.32 billion yuan, up 498% year-on-year, indicating strong growth driven by a rich product mix in mobile and automotive sectors [18] Group 5: Real Estate Industry Insights - Jianfa Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 701.3 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit due to previous gains from acquisitions [23] - The company plans to increase its cash dividend payout ratio to 70%, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 7% [23] Group 6: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - Aopumai reported a revenue of 297 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.26%, but net profit declined by 61.04% [25] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 20.6% to 5.29 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant increase in net profit expected [25] Group 7: Other Notable Companies - Kuaishou's revenue is projected to reach 141.2 billion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate of 11% [28] - Haidilao is expected to achieve revenues of 441.46 billion yuan by 2025, with a focus on improving operational efficiency [29] - Zhongke Sanhuan expects to achieve a net profit of 1.2 to 1.5 million yuan in Q1 2025, recovering from a loss in the previous year [30]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: CCBA Pricing Deviation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates the valuation level of convertible bonds by calculating the pricing deviation, which is defined as the difference between the market price and the model price derived from the CCBA model[6] - **Model Construction Process**: - Pricing deviation is calculated as: $ Pricing\ Deviation = \frac{Convertible\ Bond\ Price}{CCBA\ Model\ Price} - 1 $ - Here, "Convertible Bond Price" represents the market price of the bond, and "CCBA Model Price" is the theoretical price derived from the CCBA model[6] - Historical data is used to determine the percentile levels of the pricing deviation, and the future returns of convertible bonds are analyzed based on different deviation intervals[6][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates that the current convertible bond market is in a moderately valued range, with a pricing deviation of 0.2%, corresponding to the 58.3% and 48.3% percentiles for the periods since 2018 and 2021, respectively[6] 2. Model Name: Regression Model for Convertible Bond Returns - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses pricing deviation and YTM spread as explanatory variables to predict the future six-month returns of convertible bonds[12] - **Model Construction Process**: - The regression model is constructed with the following variables: - Explanatory variables: Pricing deviation and YTM spread - Dependent variable: Future six-month returns of convertible bonds - The regression includes sign constraints to ensure the model aligns with economic intuition[12] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates that convertible bonds in low-price, low-valuation intervals tend to have higher expected returns. However, the current prediction for the next six months is neutral, with an expected return of 0.58%[12] 3. Model Name: Return Decomposition Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model decomposes the returns of convertible bonds into three components: bond floor returns, equity-driven returns, and valuation-driven returns[15] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the CCB model to calculate the bond floor and equity-driven returns, while the valuation-driven returns are derived as the residual[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights that in the past month, equity-driven returns contributed -0.79%, and valuation-driven returns contributed -1.55% to the overall performance of the convertible bond index[15][19] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: CCB_Out Pricing Deviation - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor adjusts the CCBA pricing deviation by incorporating delisting risks to improve valuation accuracy[22] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The adjusted pricing deviation is calculated as: $ Adjusted\ Pricing\ Deviation = \frac{Convertible\ Bond\ Price}{CCB\_Out\ Model\ Price} - 1 $ - Here, "CCB_Out Model Price" accounts for delisting risks in the theoretical pricing[22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is used in multiple strategies, such as low-valuation strategies, to identify undervalued convertible bonds. It has demonstrated strong stability and performance over time[22] 2. Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures the momentum of the underlying stock prices of convertible bonds over different time horizons[25] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Momentum scores are calculated based on the equal-weighted returns of the underlying stocks over the past 1, 3, and 6 months[25] - **Factor Evaluation**: When combined with the adjusted pricing deviation factor, the momentum factor enhances the elasticity of strategies, leading to higher returns in certain market conditions[25] 3. Factor Name: Turnover Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor identifies convertible bonds with high trading activity, which may indicate better liquidity and market interest[30] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The turnover factor is calculated using: - Convertible bond turnover rates over 5 and 21 days - The ratio of convertible bond turnover to stock turnover over the same periods[30] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is particularly effective in identifying high-liquidity bonds within low-valuation pools, contributing to the success of high-turnover strategies[30] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. CCBA Pricing Deviation Model - **Six-Month Average Return**: 1.5% - **Six-Month Win Rate**: 72%[6][9][11] 2. Regression Model for Convertible Bond Returns - **Expected Six-Month Return**: 0.58% - **Optimistic Scenario**: 3.91% - **Pessimistic Scenario**: -3.06%[12] 3. Return Decomposition Model - **Equity-Driven Return (Past Month)**: -0.79% - **Valuation-Driven Return (Past Month)**: -1.55%[15][19] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. CCB_Out Pricing Deviation - **Annualized Return (2018-2025)**: 21.8% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 12.4% - **IR**: 2.12[25] 2. Momentum Factor - **Annualized Return (2018-2025)**: 24.5% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 14.9% - **IR**: 2.41[29] 3. Turnover Factor - **Annualized Return (2018-2025)**: 23.2% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 13.8% - **IR**: 2.15[33]