Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: AIAE Indicator for A-shares - **Model Construction Idea**: The AIAE indicator is used to measure the relative valuation of A-shares by comparing the total market capitalization of the CSI All Share Index with the sum of the total market capitalization and total entity debt[10] - **Model Construction Process**: The formula for the AIAE indicator is: $ AIAE = \frac{\text{CSI All Share Total Market Cap}}{\text{CSI All Share Total Market Cap} + \text{Total Entity Debt}} $ As of the end of May, the AIAE indicator for A-shares was 16%, which is at the 35th percentile since 2010, indicating relatively high valuation attractiveness[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator suggests that A-shares still have high payoff potential, though the win rate remains moderate due to macroeconomic uncertainties[10] 2. Model Name: Bond Payoff Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This indicator is derived from the expected return spread between long-term and short-term bonds to assess the valuation risk of bonds[11] - **Model Construction Process**: The bond payoff indicator is calculated based on the expected return difference between long-term and short-term bonds. Currently, the indicator is at -2.1 standard deviations, indicating extremely low valuation levels and potential risks in long-term bonds[11] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator highlights valuation risks in long-term bonds, though the win rate has improved due to monetary easing and weak credit conditions[11] 3. Model Name: Federal Reserve Liquidity Index - **Model Construction Idea**: This index combines quantity and price dimensions to measure the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve[18] - **Model Construction Process**: The Federal Reserve Liquidity Index is constructed by integrating multiple factors, including net liquidity, credit support, market expectations, and announcement surprises. Currently, the index is at the 20th percentile, indicating relatively loose liquidity conditions[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The index suggests that liquidity conditions are supportive, but potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy could alter the outlook[18] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Quality Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The quality factor is evaluated based on its payoff, trend, and crowding levels, with a focus on long-term stability[19] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Payoff: Currently at 1.3 standard deviations, indicating attractive valuation - Trend: At -0.3 standard deviations, suggesting moderate momentum - Crowding: At -0.8 standard deviations, reflecting low crowding levels The comprehensive score for the quality factor is 2.4, making it a high-priority allocation[19] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is attractive for long-term investment due to its favorable valuation and low crowding[19] 2. Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The growth factor is assessed based on its valuation, trend, and crowding, with a focus on growth potential[21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Payoff: At -1.9 standard deviations, indicating low valuation attractiveness - Trend: At 0.4 standard deviations, suggesting moderate momentum - Crowding: At 0.3 standard deviations, reflecting moderate crowding The comprehensive score for the growth factor is -1.6, indicating low allocation value[21] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is less attractive due to its low valuation and moderate crowding[21] 3. Factor Name: Dividend Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The dividend factor is evaluated for its income-generating potential and stability[24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Payoff: At 0.02 standard deviations, indicating neutral valuation - Trend: At -1.8 standard deviations, suggesting weak momentum - Crowding: At -1.2 standard deviations, reflecting low crowding The comprehensive score for the dividend factor is 0, indicating no significant allocation value[24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor lacks strong investment appeal due to weak momentum and neutral valuation[24] 4. Factor Name: Small-cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The small-cap factor is assessed for its potential to outperform based on size and market dynamics[26] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Payoff: At -0.3 standard deviations, indicating neutral valuation - Trend: At 0.4 standard deviations, suggesting moderate momentum - Crowding: At 0.5 standard deviations, reflecting moderate crowding The comprehensive score for the small-cap factor is 0, indicating high uncertainty[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is not recommended due to its high uncertainty and moderate crowding[26] --- Backtesting Results for Models 1. AIAE Indicator for A-shares - Current value: 16% - Percentile since 2010: 35%[10] 2. Bond Payoff Indicator - Current value: -2.1 standard deviations[11] 3. Federal Reserve Liquidity Index - Current value: 20th percentile[18] --- Backtesting Results for Factors 1. Quality Factor - Payoff: 1.3 standard deviations - Trend: -0.3 standard deviations - Crowding: -0.8 standard deviations - Comprehensive Score: 2.4[19] 2. Growth Factor - Payoff: -1.9 standard deviations - Trend: 0.4 standard deviations - Crowding: 0.3 standard deviations - Comprehensive Score: -1.6[21] 3. Dividend Factor - Payoff: 0.02 standard deviations - Trend: -1.8 standard deviations - Crowding: -1.2 standard deviations - Comprehensive Score: 0[24] 4. Small-cap Factor - Payoff: -0.3 standard deviations - Trend: 0.4 standard deviations - Crowding: 0.5 standard deviations - Comprehensive Score: 0[26]

Recent Key Events - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy was illegal, leading to a significant reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. [1][8] - Tesla plans to launch its fully autonomous taxi service, Robotaxi, in Austin, Texas, on June 12, 2025, with an initial fleet of about 10 vehicles [2][9] - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18 to 19, focusing on financial cooperation and high-quality development amid global economic changes [2][9] Market Situation - The Hang Seng Index rose from 22,119 points at the end of April to 23,290 points at the end of May, marking a 5.3% increase [11] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased from 5,087 points to 5,170 points, a rise of 1.6% [11] - In May, net inflows from southbound funds amounted to 45.6 billion HKD, with a decrease in net inflows over the past 30 trading days [12] Current Investment Recommendations - **Pop Mart (9992.HK)**: Achieved a 165%-170% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with overseas revenue increasing by 475%-480% [22][24] - **China Qinfa (0866.HK)**: Improved balance sheet with a net profit increase of 150.5% year-on-year in 2024, primarily due to loan restructuring [27][30] - **Jingtai Holdings (2228.HK)**: Positioned as a leader in AI for Science, with significant growth potential in the trillion-dollar market [33][34] - **Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK)**: Reported a 47.4% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, reaching a record high of 111.3 billion CNY [37][39] - **Li Auto-W (2015.HK)**: Anticipates the launch of its first pure electric SUV, i8, in July 2025, with a projected delivery of 12.3-12.8 million vehicles in Q2 [41][42] - **Leap Motor (9863.HK)**: Achieved a 187.1% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a focus on expanding its product lineup and international presence [46][48]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 01 年 月 日 量化分析报告 流动性。本周货币强度、信用方向、信用强度发出看空信号，货币方向 发出看多信号，当前流动性得分为-0.50 分，综合来看发出看空信号。 经济面。本周通胀方向与通胀强度指标发出看多信号，增长方向发出看 空信号，当前经济面得分为 0.25 分，综合来看发出中性偏多信号。 估值面。本周席勒 ERP、PB 与 AIAE 指标的分数变化不大，当前市场 的估值面得分为 0.31 分，综合来看发出中性偏多信号。 资金面。本周内资的两融增量与成交额趋势发出看空信号，外资的中国 主权 CDS 利差与海外风险厌恶指数识别为下降，外资流入意愿发出看多 信号。可见资金面当前为 0.00 分，综合来看信号中性。 技术面。本周衡量中长期动量的价格趋势指标信号中性，代表反转的新 高新低指标发出看空信号，技术面当前为-0.50 分，综合来看发出看空信 号。 拥挤度。衍生品指标中的隐含升贴水、SKEW 本周发出看多信号，VIX 无信号，可转债定价偏离度处于中性水平，可见目前拥挤度指标分数为 0.51 分，指标认为当前市场拥挤度偏低，综合来看发出 ...

Export Data and Tariff Impact - In April, China's export growth showed a marginal slowdown, with a significant decline in exports to the US, indicating the actual impact of tariff increases is becoming evident [1][10] - The export growth structure can be categorized into three scenarios: overall export slowdown with simultaneous declines in both US and non-US exports, export decline to the US but an increase in non-US exports, and a decline in US exports with overall export growth improving due to non-US exports [2][12] - Industries facing significant revenue impact due to export declines include home appliances, non-ferrous metals, light industry, machinery, and textiles [2][14] Monthly Market Review - In May, risk assets generally experienced a recovery, with A-shares showing a preference for value styles, while sectors like environmental protection, pharmaceuticals, and military industries led the gains [3][21] - The market saw a mixed performance with fluctuations in risk appetite, influenced by tariff negotiations and concerns over US debt risks [3][21] June Market Outlook and Allocation Recommendations - The market is expected to continue its oscillation with a downward shift in the central tendency, influenced by tariff expectations and policy anticipation [4][5] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in low-volatility dividend stocks, focusing on sectors like electricity, banking, and consumer goods, while also considering trading opportunities in emerging technologies such as AI and robotics [5][6]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 02 年 月 日 量化周报 市场下行空间有限 市场下行空间有限。节前（5.26-5.30），大盘横盘震荡，上证指数全周收 跌 0.03%。在此背景下，传媒确认日线级别上涨。当下，我们认为市场下 行空间有限，市场再次回到前期低点的概率基本不存在了。由于市场才刚 刚确认日线级别上涨，还有很多指数和板块没有确认，因此，我们认为市 场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，当下的市场调整不足为惧，投资者 可逆势布局。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证 成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出 了 1 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 20 个行业处于周线级别上 涨中，且 7 个行业周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚 开始，而且还是个普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 5 月 30 日，A 股景气指数为 20.81，相 比 2023 年底上升 15.38，当前处于上升周期中。 A 股情绪指数观察。当前 A 股情绪见底指数信号： ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 03 年 月 日 基础化工 硝化棉：怎么看，机会在哪里？ 硝化棉供给连续、大幅收缩，近期又生事故。2025 年 5 月 30 日，河北衡 水建民纤维素车间突发煮洗釜爆炸事故，影响硝化棉供给 9000 吨。 2013 年我国共有北化、台硝、雪飞等十余家硝化棉厂商，产量合计约 7.6 万吨，近年来供给连续大幅收缩：2023 年北化关停西安产线后产能减少 2.5 万吨、2024 年雪飞爆炸影响 2 万吨、2025 年建民爆炸影响 9000 吨。 下游成本不敏感，价格弹性可期。硝化棉应用领域包括： ·民用：美式涂装是美国仿古家具涂装方式的简称，这种家具目前在美国 市场占有相当大的比例。美式涂装用涂料目前主要以硝基漆为主，硝基漆 的主要特点为干燥快、易施工、抗刮性好、装饰性好。硝化棉是硝基漆的 主要成膜物质，由于硝基漆为低固含涂料，溶剂占比高达三分之二（一般 而言，涂料配方以树脂、助剂、颜填料为主，溶剂为辅），再加上美式涂装 家具售价高昂，硝化棉穿透到终端成本占比极低，价格不敏感； ·军用：硝化棉是人类在中国人发明黑火药之后学会制备的第二种炸药， 作 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 03 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W22：本周新房成交同比-11.9%，二手房同比+8.9% 二手房：本周 14 个样本城市二手房成交面积合计 218.2 万方，环比下降 6.8%，同比增长8.9%。其中样本一线城市的本周二手房成交面积为96.7 万方，环比 3.9%；样本二线城市为 93.9 万方，环比-15.6%；样本三线城 市为 27.6 万方，环比-7.5%。 信用债：根据 wind 统计数据，本周（5.26-6.1）共发行房企信用债 5 只， 环比增加 2 只；发行规模共计 53.10 亿元，环比增加 15.11 亿元，总偿还 量 91.45 亿元，环比减少 5.3 亿元，净融资额为-38.35 亿元，环比增加 20.41 亿元。主体评级方面，本周房企债券发行已披露的主体评级以 AAA （83.1%）为主要构成。债券类型方面，本周房企债券发行以一般中期票 据（81.0%）为主要构成。债券期限方面，本周以 1-3 年（81.0%）的债 券为主。 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为 0.9%，领先沪深 300 指 数 2. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [3][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [3]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [3]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [3]. - The report continues to support investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [3]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first- and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 0.9%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.03 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [10]. - New housing transactions in 30 cities totaled 2.41 million square meters, a 11.2% increase month-on-month but a 11.9% decrease year-on-year [21]. - Second-hand housing transactions in 14 sample cities amounted to 2.18 million square meters, a 6.8% decrease month-on-month but an 8.9% increase year-on-year [30]. Key City New and Second-Hand Housing Transaction Tracking - In first-tier cities, new housing transaction area was 685,000 square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 23.7% and a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [21]. - In second-tier cities, new housing transaction area was 1.08 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 13.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 23.9% [21]. - In third-tier cities, new housing transaction area was 641,000 square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.9% [21]. Key Company Credit Bond Situation - During the week of May 26 to June 1, five credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 5.31 billion yuan, a 15.11 billion yuan increase from the previous week [42]. - The net financing amount was -3.84 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.41 billion yuan increase in net financing compared to the previous week [42]. - The majority of the bonds issued were rated AAA (83.1%) and primarily consisted of general medium-term notes (81.0%) [42].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI in May showed a seasonal rebound but remains in the contraction zone, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly decreased [4] - Key signals include a rebound in supply and demand, an increase in import and export orders, and a slight decline in price indices, indicating ongoing pressure on prices [4] - The overall economic outlook suggests that internal demand issues remain prominent, with a need for policy intervention to support growth [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The market is currently experiencing limited downside potential, with the probability of returning to previous lows being negligible [5] - A mid-term bullish trend is confirmed across multiple indices, indicating the beginning of a new bull market phase [6] - Investors are encouraged to position themselves strategically during this market adjustment phase, as opportunities are expected to arise [6] Group 3: Fixed Income Insights - In the first quarter of 2025, Jiangsu showed strong economic growth with a focus on debt reduction, while Guangdong faced economic adjustments due to global trade uncertainties [9][10] - The overall market environment is expected to improve post mid-June, with potential for interest rates to decline further, creating more opportunities in the bond market [11] - The central bank's actions are aimed at maintaining liquidity, with a stable performance in certificates of deposit [12] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The automotive sector is witnessing significant advancements, with the launch of the Huawei and JAC Motors' ZunJie S800, which has already seen strong pre-orders [19][20] - The smart driving industry is expected to enter a golden growth period, with increasing penetration of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in new vehicles [21] - The stablecoin regulatory framework in Hong Kong marks a significant step in financial innovation, benefiting various segments of the digital asset ecosystem [24] Group 5: Company Performance - Ideal Auto's Q1 2025 gross margin exceeded expectations, with projected sales and revenue growth for the next three years [31] - Xiaomi Group is expected to maintain strong revenue growth driven by core technology advancements, with significant contributions from its automotive segment [32] - Honglu Steel Structure is positioned for recovery with a notable increase in orders and production, benefiting from demand restoration and operational efficiencies [34]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the silver and tin mining sector, with significant growth potential driven by its extensive resource base and strategic acquisitions [1][2]. - The company has completed multiple rounds of resource expansion, enhancing its global footprint and operational capabilities [1][14]. - The current market conditions suggest that silver and tin prices are undervalued, with potential for recovery as industrial demand increases [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The company has undergone three rounds of resource expansion since its listing, transitioning from a regional player in Inner Mongolia to a global mining entity [1][14]. - The company has successfully acquired several mining assets, including major silver and tin mines, which are expected to contribute significantly to its revenue [1][14]. Section 2: Mining Assets - The company holds three world-class silver mines, with substantial resources that position it among the top producers globally [1][2]. - Silverman Mining, the company's main operational asset, has a resource of 8,058 tons of silver with an average grade of 185g/t, while Yubang Mining holds 17,900 tons, ranking fifth globally [1][2]. - Future production capacity is projected to increase significantly, with a potential 2.7 times growth in ore processing capacity by 2025 [2]. Section 3: Market Conditions - Current market dynamics indicate that industrial metals, particularly silver and tin, are undervalued relative to gold, suggesting a potential price correction as manufacturing demand rebounds [2][3]. - The silver market is experiencing a persistent supply-demand gap, driven by increasing demand from the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to maintain upward pressure on prices [2][3]. - Tin supply remains unstable due to geopolitical factors, but demand is anticipated to rise due to the growth of the AI-driven semiconductor market [3]. Section 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are set at 5.86 billion, 6.68 billion, and 8.32 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.06 billion, 2.41 billion, and 3.13 billion yuan [4]. - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in profitability, with net profit growth rates projected at 34.6%, 17.2%, and 29.8% for the same years [4][27]. - The financial metrics indicate a strong improvement in profitability, with net profit margins expected to rise from 26% in 2023 to 37.6% by 2027 [4][27].