纺织服装 行业周报（20250202-20250208） 同步大市-A(维持) 2025 年 2 月 10 日 行业研究/行业周报 纺织服装行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 相关报告： 【山证纺织服装】12 月国内社零同比增 长 3.7%，11 月消费者信心指数环比回 落-【山证纺服】2024 年 12 月社零数据 点评 2025.1.20 【 山 证 纺 织 服 装 】 迅 销 集 团 公 布 FY2025Q1 业绩，维持全年业绩指引- 【山证纺服】行业周报 2025.1.13 分析师： 王冯 执业登记编码：S0760522030003 邮箱：wangfeng@sxzq.com 孙萌 执业登记编码：S0760523050001 邮箱：sunmeng@sxzq.com 本周观察：PUMA 公布 2024 财年初步业绩 1 月 22 日，PUMA 公布 2024 财年初步业绩（未经审计）。FY2024，公司实现营收 88.17 亿欧元，同比增长 2.5%，剔除汇率影响，同比增长 4.4%。FY2024Q4，公司实现营收 22.89 亿欧元，同比增长 15.5%，剔除汇率影响，同比增长 9 ...

非银行金融 以"五篇大文章"为锚，发挥功能性作用 领先大市-A(维持) 资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"实施意见点评 2025 年 2 月 10 日 行业研究/行业动态分析 非银行金融板块近一年市场表现 事件描述： 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 李明阳 电话：19141933093 邮箱：limingyang@sxzq.com 2025 年 2 月 7 日，中国证监会发布了《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章" 的实施意见（以下简称意见）》，旨在落实中央关于科技金融、绿色金融、普 惠金融、养老金融、数字金融"五篇大文章"的部署要求。意见旨在从制度 优化、产品创新、生态培育等多维度发力，系统性提升资本市场对实体经济 的支持效能，助力新质生产力发展与经济转型升级。 事件点评： 相关报告： 全链条服务硬科技，激活创新资本动能：意见对科技型企业的全生命周 期金融服务提出细化安排。1）上市支持：延续"科技十六条""科创板八条" 等政策，优化对未盈利科技企业的包容性，加大对新一代信息技术、生物医 药等战略性产业的上市支持。2）并购重组优化：通过完善估值方法、支付工 具及审核机制，鼓励科技企业围绕强链补链开展并购重组。3）私 ...

太阳能 行业周报（20250203-20250209） 同步大市-A(维持) 发改委推动新能源上网电量参与市场交易，节后产业链价格持稳 2025 年 2 月 10 日 行业研究/行业周报 太阳能行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 发改委：推动新能源上网电量参与市场交易：2 月 9 日，国家发展改革 委发布《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革 促进新能源高质量发展的通 知》。通知指出，按照价格市场形成、责任公平承担、区分存量增量、政策 统筹协调的要求，深化新能源上网电价市场化改革。推动新能源上网电量参 与市场交易。新能源项目（风电、太阳能发电，下同）上网电量原则上全部 进入电力市场，上网电价通过市场交易形成。新能源项目可报量报价参与交 易，也可接受市场形成的价格。参与跨省跨区交易的新能源电量，上网电价 和交易机制按照跨省跨区送电相关政策执行。 600732.SH 爱旭股份 买入-B 601012.SH 隆基绿能 买入-B 601865.SH 福莱特 买入-A 国管局：探索光伏等新能源利用市场机制：2 月 5 日，国管局发布《关 于 2025 年公共机构节约能源资源工作安排的通知》，《通知 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Synchronize with the market" rating for the coal industry, indicating expected performance in line with the benchmark index [1][75]. Core Insights - The coal price fluctuations have a low impact on valuations, with the sensitivity of debt issuers to coal prices varying significantly. High-grade coal companies exhibit stronger resilience to price changes, affecting debt repayment stability rather than default probabilities [5][75]. - The industry is expected to stabilize after experiencing negative feedback in credit during the third quarter, with opportunities for investment in mid-to-low-grade and long-term bonds as financing costs remain low [5][75]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Fundamentals Quarterly Review - Supply: Limited recovery in Shanxi, with production expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to supportive policies [13]. - Import Coal: A slight increase in imports, maintaining high growth in the fourth quarter, with structural changes in coal types imported [19][21]. - Demand: Continued divergence in demand trends, with electricity demand remaining robust while non-electric demand, particularly related to real estate, shows weakness [28]. - Price and Profitability: Coal prices have maintained a high oscillating trend, with industry revenue declining by 10.7% year-on-year to 2.87 trillion yuan [37]. The gross profit margin has decreased to 33.18% [44]. - Investment and Leverage: Fixed asset investment in the coal industry increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with a reasonable debt-to-asset ratio of 59.58% [49]. 2. Coal Debt Market Analysis - Primary Market: The net financing for coal bonds turned positive in the fourth quarter, with new issuances totaling 118.5 billion yuan and repayments of 90.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net increase of 27.9 billion yuan [53]. - Secondary Market: The scale of outstanding coal bonds increased by 6.49% year-on-year, with a significant portion being medium-term notes [66][69]. The average duration of coal bonds has risen to 2.46 years, indicating an improvement in the maturity structure [72]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while coal prices are weak, there are opportunities in mid-to-low-grade and long-term bonds due to the varying sensitivity of issuers to coal price changes. The overall expectation is for stabilization in the industry, with potential for investment in specific segments [75].

电力及公用事业 电力月报 同步大市-A(维持) 电力及公用事业板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证电力及公用事业】11 月用电量增 速回落，看好后续需求修复-【山证煤炭 公用】电力月报 2025.1.3 速回落，看好后续需求修复-【山证煤炭 公用】电力月报 2024.12.18 12 月当月用电量增速较 11 月有所增长，分部门除城乡居民用电量外当 月同比增速均实现环比回升。用电侧，12 月我国平均气温较历史同期偏高， 全社会及分部门用电增速均维持增长趋势但同比增速较去年同期有所放缓， 但随着经济活动复苏，分部门除城乡居民用电量外当月同比增速均实现环比 回升。长期来看，未来新质生产力发展及电能替代趋势推动下，用电量需求 或将进一步提升，且我们认为短期用电量增速或仍将高于 GDP 增速；其中 长三角及粤皖地区新兴产业布局较早、规模占比较高，且相关产业如光伏制 造、AI 数据中心等多为新高耗能产业，预期上述地区用电需求增长弹性较大。 发电侧，火电板块：短期来看，上游燃料价格大幅反弹可能性较弱，利好火 电板块成本端；水电对火电电量挤占影响进一步削弱，预计后续火电电量持 续向好；长期来看，煤电容量电 ...

消费者服务行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 | 首选股票 | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 600754.SH | 锦江酒店 | 增持-A | | 600258.SH | 首旅酒店 | 增持-A | | 600138.SH | 中青旅 | 增持-B | | 300144.SZ | 宋城演艺 | 增持-A | | 603136.SH | 天目湖 | 增持-A | | 002707.SZ | 众信旅游 | 增持-B | 相关报告： 【山证社服】社会服务行业 2025 年度策 略：消费趋于理性，品质化与性价比需 求旺盛（2025.1.24） 分析师： 王冯 执业登记编码：S0760522030003 邮箱：wangfeng@sxzq.com 张晓霖 执业登记编码：S0760521010001 邮箱：zhangxiaolin@sxzq.com 消费者服务 2025 年春节假期旅游市场点评 同步大市-A(维持) 首个非遗春节旅游市场平稳增长，反向出行拉升低线城市旅游热 2025 年 2 月 6 日 行业研究/行业快报 事件描述： 春节小长假旅游市场整体情况：春节假期 8 天，全国国内出游 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in its annual performance, with projected net profits for 2024 ranging from 2.1 to 2.36 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.45% to 72.45% [3]. - The demand for the company's products in overseas markets remains strong, particularly for high-quality and high-performance tires, which are in short supply [4]. - The new factory in Morocco is anticipated to ramp up production significantly in 2025, contributing to further growth in the company's performance [5]. Summary by Sections Market Data - As of February 5, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 24.80 yuan, with a market capitalization of 25.678 billion yuan [1]. Financial Data - Basic earnings per share (EPS) for the company is projected at 2.13 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13.48% [2]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 8.446 billion yuan in 2024 to 11.240 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.1% [10]. Performance Forecast - The company’s net profit is forecasted to be 2.229 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.602 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.5 and 9.9 [6][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 32.5% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 29.7% in 2025 [10]. Industry Insights - The domestic tire market is experiencing a continuous boom, with tire production and exports showing significant year-on-year growth [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing cost pressures from raw material price increases, which have seen substantial fluctuations throughout 2024 [4].

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,229.49, down by 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose slightly by 0.08% to 10,164.22 [4]. Industry Commentary: Communication - The report highlights the dual advancements in model innovation and engineering optimization within the communication sector, particularly focusing on the "Stargate" supercomputing initiative announced by the U.S. government, which aims to invest $500 billion over four years [8]. - Meta's planned capital expenditure for AI-related projects is projected to be between $60 billion and $65 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing AI capabilities [8]. - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for AI computing power, driven by the proliferation of AI applications and a competitive "AI arms race" among major cloud service providers [9]. Company Commentary: Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH) - Juhua Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 1.87 billion and 2.1 billion yuan for 2024, with a significant improvement in the refrigerant segment, which is projected to see a 22.61% increase in export volume [13]. - The company’s refrigerant sales are anticipated to reach 314.38 thousand tons, with a revenue increase of 29.84% year-on-year, driven by improved demand in the downstream appliance and automotive markets [13]. - The report notes that the supply of refrigerants is expected to remain tight due to quota optimization and increased demand, which will support pricing power in the market [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities in the North American AI computing chain and related technological innovations, including AI infrastructure, power distribution, and cooling solutions [12]. - It also recommends attention to domestic computing investments, particularly in ASIC chips and high-density interconnects, as the demand for AI applications continues to grow [12]. - For Juhua Co., Ltd., the projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are estimated at 0.73, 1.16, and 1.34 yuan, respectively, with a "Buy-B" rating maintained based on the current market price [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [4][8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.87 to 2.1 billion yuan for 2024, with the fourth quarter projected to contribute 612 to 842 million yuan [5] - The supply tightness in the refrigerant market is expected to persist, driven by improved downstream demand and price increases [6][7] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 25.66 yuan on February 5, 2025, with a yearly high of 26.72 yuan and a low of 14.25 yuan [2] - The circulating A-shares total 2.7 billion, with a market capitalization of 69.275 billion yuan [2] Financial Data - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 20.655 billion yuan in 2023 to 24.515 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.7% [12] - The net profit is expected to rise significantly from 944 million yuan in 2023 to 1.984 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 110.3% increase [12] - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.73 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.16 yuan in 2025 and 1.34 yuan in 2026 [8][12] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The company’s main products are expected to see a 14.96% increase in external sales volume, reaching 3.1438 million tons in 2024 [6] - The average selling price of refrigerants is projected to rise by 32.69% year-on-year to 26,765 yuan per ton in 2024 [6] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 35, 22, and 19, respectively, based on the closing price of 25.66 yuan [8]