公司报告 | 季报点评 中联重科（000157） 证券研究报告 一季报业绩表现优异，全球化、多元化助力公司穿越周期 公司发布 2025 年一季报，业绩表现优异： 2025Q1 公司实现营收 121.17 亿元，同比+2.92%；其中境外收入 65.68 亿元， 同比+15.17%，境外收入占比 54.2%、同比+5.77pct。 2025Q1 公司实现归母净利润 14.1 亿元，同比+53.98%，扣非归母净利润 8.74 亿元，同比+12.4%。毛利率 28.67%，同比+0.21pct，归母净利率 11.64%， 同比+3.86pct。降本 2.78 亿元，降本率 4.28%；经营性现金流净额 7.4 亿元， 同比+140.96%；综合回款率 91.57%，同比+5.11pct。 2025Q1 公司期间费用率 17.7%，同比-0.02pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务 费用率分别变动+1.2pct/-0.4pct/+0.4pct/-1.2pct。 本地化布局行业领先，构建海外市场长期竞争优势： 公司产品和服务覆盖海外国家 170 余个，海外网点超 430 个，一季度新增 超 30 个；服务备件仓库约 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][8][20] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 82.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, and a net profit of 3.2 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to the high demand for gold and jewelry in Beijing, where the company has a significant presence [1] - The company benefits from a high proportion of revenue from precious metal investment products, which saw a strong demand in Q1 2025 due to rising gold prices [1] - The company plans to expand its brand influence through an omnichannel strategy, combining online and offline sales [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 202 billion yuan, a 22.2% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, a 1.7% increase year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.20 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 77.9% [2] - The revenue from precious metal investment products is expected to grow by 45.3% in 2024, while gold jewelry sales are projected to decline by 11.1% [3] - The company opened 20 new direct stores in 2024, with plans for further expansion in 2025 [3] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 7.9 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 11 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 16.55 billion yuan in 2023 to 31.87 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [6][14] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 8.9%, with a net margin of 3.6% [3][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 3.82 CNY and an expected relative return of 10%-20% over the next six months [5][16]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.3 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170 million CNY, down 32% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in management expenses by 26% is attributed to the acquisition of the Woolrich brand, brand consulting services, and rising labor costs, along with depreciation from new industrial parks [1]. - Financial expenses surged by 82.24% due to reduced bank deposits and lower interest income [1]. - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 460.57 million CNY, 543.46 million CNY, and 629.44 million CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.32 CNY, 0.37 CNY, and 0.43 CNY [4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.3 billion CNY, a 4% decrease year-on-year, with a net profit of 170 million CNY, down 32% [1]. - Management expenses increased by 26% due to various factors including brand acquisition and rising costs [1]. - Financial expenses rose by 82.24% due to decreased interest income [1]. Profit Forecasts - The report revises profit forecasts, projecting net profits of 460.57 million CNY for 2025, 543.46 million CNY for 2026, and 629.44 million CNY for 2027 [4][9]. - EPS is expected to be 0.32 CNY in 2025, 0.37 CNY in 2026, and 0.43 CNY in 2027 [4][9]. Market Positioning - The company focuses on maintaining its brand strength and market position through systematic improvements and targeted strategies across its various brands [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6][17] Core Viewpoints - The company reported a 2024 annual revenue of 1.407 billion yuan, an increase of 11.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of 31.48 million yuan, up 116.54% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 354 million yuan, down 1.97% year-on-year, but overseas sales grew by 84.33% [1][5] - The innovative platform is entering a harvest phase with significant potential for overseas expansion, particularly with the GDF-15 target candidate drug GB18, which has shown promising results in preclinical studies for treating cancer cachexia [2][3] - The company has established overseas sales channels in over 70 countries and regions, with a 2024 overseas revenue of 224 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 61.96%. The target for 2025 is projected to be between 415 million and 692 million yuan [4] Financial Performance - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 1.812 billion, 2.192 billion, and 2.718 billion yuan, respectively. The expected net profits for the same period are 143.32 million, 227.17 million, and 310.19 million yuan [5][10] - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 7.618 billion yuan, with a current price of 38.16 yuan per share [6][7] Product Development - The GB18 drug candidate has received acceptance from NMPA for clinical trials, and its preclinical data shows superior efficacy in improving muscle wasting compared to competitors [3] - The company is also developing several other innovative products in the preclinical stage, including GB10, GB12, and GB20, which have high innovation potential [3] Market Potential - According to WHO data, there were 20 million new cancer cases globally in 2022, with approximately 9 million patients affected by cachexia, indicating a large market opportunity for the GDF-15 target drug [2] - The company has signed strategic partnerships with various pharmaceutical companies to expand its overseas business foundation [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [5][16]. Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in HIV revenue, with a first-quarter revenue of 198 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 113% [1]. - The company’s HIV product, AINOMITE tablets, has advantages in convenience and is expected to continue to grow in sales in 2025, with first-quarter revenue of 62.72 million yuan, a 76% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company has a deep layout in the HIV drug field, with two key products under development, including the integrase inhibitor ACC017, which is expected to enter Phase III clinical trials this year [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 418 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.57%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -141 million yuan, a year-on-year increase in loss of 85.63% [1]. - The expected operating income for 2025 has been revised down from 808 million yuan to 732 million yuan, with projected revenues of 1.022 billion yuan and 1.235 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2026 has been adjusted from 16 million yuan and 84 million yuan to -10 million yuan and 37 million yuan, respectively, with an expected net profit of 79 million yuan in 2027 [4]. Market Position - The company’s AINOMITE tablets are the first domestic three-in-one single-tablet combination with independent intellectual property rights, showing better cardiovascular safety compared to competitors [2]. - The company is positioned in a competitive market for HIV treatments, with ongoing research and development efforts aimed at innovative long-acting drugs [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering the potential for significant returns over the next six months [5][8]. Core Views - The semiconductor industry is returning to a growth trajectory, and the company's performance is steadily improving, with a revenue increase of 20.16% year-on-year to 2.596 billion yuan in 2024 [2][5]. - The company is focusing on AIoT smart modules, automotive electronics, and audio sensors, establishing a differentiated competitive advantage in these areas [2][3]. - The company has invested in the National Intelligent Sensor Innovation Center to enhance its AIoT chip business and edge computing capabilities, aiming to develop integrated sensing and computing solutions [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 36.37 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.07%, while the non-recurring net profit was 35 million yuan, up 10.17% [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 586 million yuan, reflecting a 5.96% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 13 million yuan [1][2]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 154 million yuan for 2025, with a significant growth rate of 322.37% expected in 2026 [5][6]. Business Development Summary - The company is advancing both customized and self-developed chip businesses, achieving sales of 176 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 42.22% [4]. - Collaborations with upstream semiconductor design firms are ongoing to develop wireless smart appliance chips and AI glasses SOC chips [4]. - The partnership with Qiyimoer focuses on Chiplet interconnects and AI computing chips, enhancing technological innovation and business expansion [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Insights - The company has signed a collaboration and licensing agreement with Sandoz AG for the development and commercialization of its product HLX13, a recombinant anti-CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody, in several regions including the US and Europe, with potential payments up to $191 million [1]. - Sandoz, a leader in biosimilars, is expected to enhance the commercialization of HLX13, which is the first CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody biosimilar to enter Phase III clinical trials globally [2]. - The company has established a strong global presence through multiple licensing agreements for its biosimilars, generating significant upfront payments totaling $64 million in 2025 alone [3]. - The company plans to present clinical data for its innovative drugs HLX43 and HLX22 at the 2025 ASCO conference, with HLX43 expected to become a key product and HLX22 potentially changing the standard treatment for HER2-positive gastric cancer [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 5.873 billion, 5.970 billion, and 7.125 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.60%, 1.64%, and 19.36% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 827 million, 797 million, and 1.122 billion yuan for the same years [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous improvement in operational quality and is gradually building a global gear ecosystem platform [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 8.78 billion yuan, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, with a main business revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, up 18.2% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to reach 1.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.4% [1] - The company is benefiting from the growth in the new energy vehicle gear and intelligent actuator sectors, with significant revenue increases in these areas [2] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue from passenger car gears, commercial vehicle gears, engineering machinery gears, reducers, and intelligent actuators is projected to be 5.32 billion, 720 million, 580 million, 660 million, and 640 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +26.1%, -18%, -10.4%, +18%, and +69.5% [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 25%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is projected to be 12%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 31% in Q4 2024, marking a historical high in nearly a decade [2] Cost Management - The overall expense ratio for 2024 is expected to be 10.6%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with stable management and sales expense ratios [2] - The company continues to invest in R&D, with the R&D expense ratio increasing to 5.2% in 2024 [2] Growth Opportunities - The company is expanding its product offerings and enhancing its market presence through technological iterations and global expansion, including the establishment of a factory in Hungary [3] - The acquisition of San Duo Le has led to revenue and gross margin improvements, particularly in the sweeping machine sector [3] - The company is exploring new growth points in smart automotive applications and intelligent wearable devices [3] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.23 billion, 11.78 billion, and 13.57 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.32 billion, 1.62 billion, and 1.93 billion yuan [4] - The company maintains a PE ratio of 21.7, 17.6, and 14.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.373 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.85%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 67 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 476.64% [1] - The company's collaboration with major clients continues to deepen, transitioning from supplying intermediates and raw materials to a full-chain cooperation model that includes raw materials, CDMO, and formulation [2][3] - The self-operated formulation business is expected to grow steadily due to successful bids in national and provincial centralized procurement [4] Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 1.6497 billion yuan, 1.9175 billion yuan, and 2.1738 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 166.31 million yuan, 221.35 million yuan, and 274.47 million yuan for the same years [5] - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 366.41 million yuan, with a growth rate of 24.86% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.76 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.26 yuan by 2027 [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is strengthening its partnership with MSD in the CDMO sector, with ongoing development and production of multiple products [3] - The formulation capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2024, with a projected revenue growth of 51.9% for the company's TianKang division [2] - The company has successfully secured multiple bids in centralized procurement, which is anticipated to accelerate the growth of its self-operated formulation business [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous improvement in operational quality and is gradually building a global gear ecosystem platform [1]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 8.78 billion yuan, representing an 8.8% year-on-year increase, with a main business revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, up 18.2% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to reach 1.02 billion yuan, a 25.4% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company is benefiting from the growth in the new energy vehicle gear and intelligent actuator sectors, with significant revenue increases in these areas [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.78 billion yuan, with a main business revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, and a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 25%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is expected to be 12%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - For Q4 2024, the revenue is expected to be 2.04 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year, primarily due to the contraction of low-margin steel trading business [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from passenger car gears is projected at 5.32 billion yuan, an increase of 26.1% year-on-year, while revenue from new energy vehicle gears is expected to reach 3.37 billion yuan, up 51.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and market presence, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, which is expected to drive future growth [3]. Cost and Expenses - The overall expense ratio for 2024 is projected at 10.6%, with a slight increase in R&D expenses to 5.2% [2]. - The company is maintaining stable expense ratios, with a focus on R&D investment to support future growth [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expanding its global footprint through the establishment of a factory in Hungary and is expected to see growth from international clients [3]. - The acquisition of San Duo Le has led to revenue and gross margin improvements, particularly in the sweeping machine sector [3]. - The company is continuously innovating and exploring new applications in robotics and intelligent vehicles, which are anticipated to provide new growth points [3].