东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴宏观】美联储下调经济增长预期，认为关税通胀压力一过性——3 月 美国 FOMC 点评（20250320） 美联储维持当前政策利率水平，同时减缓 QT 节奏。 主要观点： 鲍威尔认为关税引起的通胀为一过性是基本情景，但不确定性显著提升。 美联储整体偏鸽，不会用加息应对关税引发的价格上涨。 我们猜测，若关税引发通胀上涨尚未回落而经济活动放缓，美联储可能仍会 选择先行降息。 鲍威尔认为经济数据非常稳健，劳动力市场处于平衡状态。鲍威尔认为，当 前劳动力市场是解雇率和雇佣率双低，希望找到工作的人等待时间更长。劳 动力市场处于这种平衡状态已有 6-7 个月。华盛顿公务员解雇目前还是局域 性的，没有看见全国范围的解雇率的抬升。如果经济仍保持强劲，通胀回落 至 2%的进程拉长，美联储可以延长停留在当前利率水平的时间。 鲍威尔认为关税引起的通胀为一过性是基本情景，但不确定性显著提升。鲍 威尔认为目前很难从通胀数据中区分关税和非关税的影响。美联储注意到， 过去 2 个月商品价格的持续上行是非常意外的，不确定是否为偶然，还是因 为关税引起消费者提前购买引发价格上涨。关税对价格的影响 ...

P1 首席周观点：2025 年第 12 周 2025 年 3 月 20 日 首席观点 周度观点 张天丰 | 东兴证券金属首席分析师 DONGXING SECURITIES 东兴证券研究报告 首席周观点：2025年第12周 S1480520100001，021-25102914，Zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn 金属行业：四川黄金（001337.SZ）：资源及成本优势持续优化的西部矿产金龙 头（1）-资源成长性分析 西部矿产金龙头。四川黄金成立于 2006 年 8 月，由四川省地质矿产勘查开发局下属国有企 业双流容大（现四川黄金集团有限公司）牵头合资设立。公司于 2023 年 3 月 3 日以"四川 容大黄金股份有限公司"之名在深圳证券交易所主板上市，后于 2024 年 4 月 17 日更名为四 川黄金股份有限公司。公司业务主要围绕梭罗沟金矿矿山建设、开采、选矿及金精矿、合质 金的销售展开。公司委托供应商完成剥离、爆破、铲装及运输等矿山作业，独立完成选矿工 作，将采出的原生矿和氧化矿通过浮选与喷淋浸出得到金精矿与合质金产品，随后销售给下 游冶炼或精炼企业。经过多年发展，公司已成为国内主要的金矿采选企业之 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1379.47 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 178.81 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The company sold 71.602 million pigs in 2024, a 12.2% increase year-on-year, with a target of 72-78 million for 2025 [1] - The complete cost of pig farming decreased from approximately 14 yuan/kg in 2024 to a target of 12 yuan/kg in 2025, contributing to improved profitability [1] - The slaughtering segment achieved monthly profitability in December 2024, with a reduction in average losses per head from 70 yuan in 2023 to 50 yuan in 2024 [2] - The company is expanding its overseas business and enhancing its technological capabilities in smart farming applications [2] Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 206.29 billion yuan, 220.67 billion yuan, and 353.65 billion yuan respectively, with EPS expected to be 3.88, 4.03, and 6.46 yuan [3] - The company’s PE ratios for the same years are forecasted to be 10, 10, and 6 times [3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 142.48 billion yuan in 2025 to 162.78 billion yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 13.77% in 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][13]. Core Views - China Jushi, as a leading player in the fiberglass industry, continues to enhance its market share despite challenging market conditions [4][7]. - The company achieved a revenue of 15.856 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.7% to 2.445 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company’s operational efficiency is improving, with a reduction in the operating cycle to 169.71 days, down by 12.97 days year-on-year, driven by a decrease in inventory turnover days [6][7]. Revenue and Profitability - The sales volume of fiberglass yarn and products reached 3.025 million tons, up 21.91% year-on-year, while electronic cloth sales increased by 4.76% to 875 million meters [4]. - Despite a decline in fiberglass prices in 2024, the company managed to narrow the decline in net profit, particularly in the third and fourth quarters, where the fourth quarter saw a remarkable increase of 146.04% year-on-year [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and management, targeting growth in new markets such as TP thermoplastic short fibers and small direct yarns [4][7]. - With a strong cash position of 3.123 billion yuan and a stable asset-liability ratio, the company is well-positioned to withstand risks and invest in research and development, which increased by 1.72% to 528 million yuan in 2024 [7][14]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.138 billion, 3.872 billion, and 4.611 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.78, 0.97, and 1.15 yuan [7][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Jushi [2][13] Core Views - China Jushi, as a leading player in the fiberglass industry, continues to enhance its market share despite adverse market conditions [4][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 15.856 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.7% to 2.445 billion yuan [3][4] - The company’s operational efficiency is improving, with a reduction in inventory turnover days and an increase in sales volume, leading to a significant rise in market share [6][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 3.025 million tons of fiberglass yarn and products, a year-on-year increase of 21.91%, and electronic cloth sales reached 875 million meters, up 4.76% [4] - The company’s net profit margin is projected to recover, with a significant increase of 146.04% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year [5] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 3.138 billion, 3.872 billion, and 4.611 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.78, 0.97, and 1.15 yuan [7][14] Market Position and Strategy - China Jushi's global layout and strong cash position allow it to mitigate international trade friction impacts and invest in R&D, with R&D expenses increasing by 1.72% to 528 million yuan in 2024 [7][14] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and expanding into high-end markets, which is expected to enhance its international competitiveness [7][13]

——3 月美国 FOMC 点评 美联储下调经济增长预期，认为关税通胀 压力一过性 2025 年 3 月 20 日 宏观经济 事件点评 | | | 事件： 美联储维持当前政策利率水平，同时减缓 QT 节奏。 主要观点： 鲍威尔认为经济数据非常稳健，劳动力市场处于平衡状态。鲍威尔认为，当前劳动力市场是解雇率和雇佣率双低，希望找到 工作的人等待时间更长。劳动力市场处于这种平衡状态已有 6-7 个月。华盛顿公务员解雇目前还是局域性的，没有看见全国 范围的解雇率的抬升。如果经济仍保持强劲，通胀回落至 2%的进程拉长，美联储可以延长停留在当前利率水平的时间。 鲍威尔认为关税引起的通胀为一过性是基本情景，但不确定性显著提升。鲍威尔认为目前很难从通胀数据中区分关税和非关 税的影响。美联储注意到，过去 2 个月商品价格的持续上行是非常意外的，不确定是否为偶然，还是因为关税引起消费者提 前购买引发价格上涨。关税对价格的影响还在非常非常早期。从历史经验来看，特朗普第一任期内的关税政策是一过性的， 并未引起长期通胀上行。本次关税政策为一过性的是基本情景假设，同时鲍威尔承认不确定性非常高，仍需观察。 SEP 的变化与鲍威尔在新闻发布会 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 A 股港股市场 | 名称 | 价格 | 行业 | 发行日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 浙江华业 | 20.87 | 机械设备 | 20250317 | | 开发科技 | 30.38 | 机械设备 | 20250318 | | *价格单位为元/股 | | | | 分析师推荐 【东兴金属】山金国际（000975.SZ）：成本优势持续强化，公司业 绩创历史新高（20250319） 事件：公司发布 2024 年年度报告。报告期内公司实现营业收入 135.85 亿元， 同比+67.6%；实现归属上市公司股东净利润 21.73 亿元，同比增长 52.57%； 基本每股收益 0.78 元/股，同比增长 52.58%。全球黄金价格中枢持续攀升， 公司降本增效成果明显，多因素共振推动公司业绩创历史新高。 公司资源储量持续增厚。截止 24 年底，公司共拥有 6 个矿山企业，其中在 产金矿矿山 3 座（黑河洛克、吉林板庙子和青海大柴旦），在产铅锌银多金 属矿山 1 座（玉龙矿业），停产待恢复矿山 1 座（华盛金矿），及在建矿山 一座（纳米比亚 Osino）。截止 24 ...

Group 1 - The company primarily focuses on the construction, mining, and processing of the Suoluo Gold Mine, becoming one of the major gold mining enterprises in China and recognized as a national-level green mine [1][2] - As of the end of 2023, the Suoluo Gold Mine has a total gold metal reserve of 57,914 kg, with a significant increase in resource exploration investments in 2022 and 2023 [2][3] - The company's gold concentrate production has shown a stable increase, with an average capacity utilization rate of 107% from 2018 to 2023, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% in gold concentrate production from 2021 to 2023 [3][4] Group 2 - The average gross profit margin for the company's gold concentrate products is 53.12% from 2018 to 2023, indicating a strong profitability compared to peers [4][7] - In 2023, the company's unit cost for gold concentrate was 161.2 RMB per gram, significantly lower than the industry average of 201.2 RMB per gram, showcasing its cost advantage [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 942 million, 1.104 billion, and 1.264 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 343 million, 416 million, and 492 million RMB [8]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for Sichuan Gold (001337.SZ) based on its continuous optimization of resource and cost advantages in the western mining sector [8]. Core Insights - Sichuan Gold has established itself as a leading gold mining company in China, focusing on the construction, mining, and sales of gold concentrate and refined gold products [1]. - The company has significantly increased its resource reserves through ongoing exploration, with a total gold metal amount of 57,914 kg in the Suoluo Valley mining area as of the end of 2023 [2]. - The average gross profit margin for the company's gold concentrate products is 53.12%, indicating a strong profitability compared to industry peers [4][7]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - Sichuan Gold's operations include mining, processing, and selling gold products, with a focus on the Suoluo Valley gold mine [1]. - The company has become a key player in the domestic gold mining industry and is recognized as a national-level green mine enterprise [1]. Resource Exploration - As of the end of 2023, the Suoluo Valley mining area has a gold metal reserve of 57,914 kg, with an additional 4,022 kg in the Suoluo-Wajing Valley area [2]. - The company invested 32.94 million yuan in exploration in 2022 and 64.34 million yuan in 2023, reflecting its commitment to increasing resource reserves [2]. Production Capacity - The company has maintained a high average capacity utilization rate of 107% from 2018 to 2023, with gold concentrate production increasing at a CAGR of 4.5% from 2021 to 2023 [3]. - The average ore grade has remained stable, contributing to consistent production levels [3]. Profitability - The average gross profit margin for gold concentrate products is 53.12%, with a stable gross profit margin of 53.05% reported for the first half of 2024 [4][7]. - The unit cost of gold concentrate is 161.2 yuan per gram, significantly lower than the industry average of 201.2 yuan per gram, showcasing the company's cost advantage [7]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 942 million yuan, 1.104 billion yuan, and 1.264 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 343 million yuan, 416 million yuan, and 492 million yuan [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][13]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high in performance, with operating revenue of 13.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.173 billion yuan, up 52.57% year-on-year [1]. - The company continues to enhance its cost advantages, with a gross profit margin for gold mining rising from 60.76% in 2023 to 73.54% in 2024, and the cost per gram of gold decreasing by 17.6% to 145.4 yuan [4][12]. - The company has a strong growth outlook, with projected revenues of 14.791 billion yuan, 16.859 billion yuan, and 18.431 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [13][14]. Resource Reserves - As of the end of 2024, the company holds 137 tons of gold reserves, 72,200 tons of lead, 128,500 tons of zinc, and 774,200 tons of silver [2]. - The company has been actively exploring and has added significant new resources, including 12.69 tons of gold and 95.72 tons of silver through exploration investments of 176 million yuan in 2024 [2]. Production Performance - The company reported a gold production of 8.04 tons, a 14.69% increase year-on-year, and a lead production of 12,742 tons, up 34.2% year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a gold production target of 15 tons annually by 2026, supported by the acquisition of the Osino project in Namibia [3]. Financial Metrics - The company's return on equity (ROE) increased from 12.68% in 2023 to 17.71% in 2024, significantly above the industry average [12]. - The company maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio of 18.57%, which is well below the industry average of 40.48%, enhancing its financing capabilities [12].