[Table_IndNameRptType] 电子 行业周报 电子行业周报：影石创新招股书梳理，国产科技创新与 新兴消费相互促进，全景相机全方位记录多彩生活 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期：2025-05-25 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 1. 影石创新新品热销引发市场关注， 历经十载反超 GoPro 问鼎全球 20250427 -20% 0% 20% 40% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 电子(申万) 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈耀波 执业证书号：S0010523060001 邮箱：chenyaobo@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：李美贤 执业证书号：S0010524020002 邮箱：limeixian@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：刘志来 执业证书号：S0010523120005 邮箱：liuzhilai@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：李元晨 执业证书号：S0010524070001 邮箱：liyc@hazq.com 相关报告 主要 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the price of live pigs has decreased by 2.1% week-on-week, with the national average price at 14.18 CNY/kg. The number of breeding sows remained stable in April 2025, indicating potential for normal profitability in pig farming in 2025 [3][4] - The report emphasizes the ongoing domestic substitution logic in the pet food sector, with companies like Zhongchong and Guobao expected to see both volume and price increases [7] - The report predicts a decline in global corn and wheat stock-to-use ratios for the 2025/26 season, indicating tighter supply conditions [6][50] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agricultural sector index fell by 0.36% in the week from May 19 to May 23, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [19] - The agricultural sector has ranked 9th among 31 sub-industries since the beginning of 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 3.18% [19][23] 2. Industry Weekly Data 2.1 Primary Agricultural Products - Corn spot price is 2376.08 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.05% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.23%. Soybean spot price remains stable at 3927.89 CNY/ton, down 10.46% year-on-year [42] - The report notes that the global corn stock-to-use ratio for 2025/26 is projected to be 18.9%, the lowest since the 2015/16 season [6][51] 2.2 Livestock and Poultry - The average price of live pigs is reported at 14.18 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decline of 2.1%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased slightly [3][4] - The report indicates that the price of white feather chicken products remained stable, while yellow feather chicken prices experienced slight fluctuations [4] 2.3 Animal Vaccines - The report shows a significant increase in the issuance of pig vaccines, with diarrhea vaccines up by 177.8% year-on-year [8] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing trends in the pet food industry, highlighting the growth potential for domestic brands [7] - It also notes the expected supply constraints in the poultry sector due to limited imports and potential disruptions in breeding stock availability [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 13.8 billion (up 16% year-on-year), operating profit of 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), and adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion (up 3% year-on-year) [4][7] - The international business continues to show strong growth, driven by favorable visa-free policies, with overseas OTA platform bookings up 60% year-on-year and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [4][5] - The company expects revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 12% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: accommodation booking revenue of 5.5 billion (up 23% year-on-year), transportation ticketing revenue of 5.4 billion (up 8% year-on-year), and other business revenue of 1.4 billion (up 33% year-on-year) [4] - The company anticipates adjusted net profits of 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 16%, and 14% [7][10] - The total market capitalization is 34.79 billion HKD [9]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with total revenue of 13.8 billion (up 16% YoY), operating profit of 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), and adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion (up 3% YoY), all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [4][7] - The international business continues to show strong growth, with overseas OTA platform bookings up 60% YoY and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, driven by strategic investments and favorable visa policies [4][5] - The company expects revenues of 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion for the same years [7][10] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Overall revenue reached 13.8 billion (YoY +16%), slightly above consensus estimates by 0.22% - Operating profit was 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), exceeding consensus by 7.34% - Adjusted net profit was 4.2 billion (YoY +3%), surpassing consensus by 8.99% [4] Business Segment Performance - Accommodation booking revenue was 5.5 billion (YoY +23%), above consensus by 1.39% - Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion (YoY +8%), slightly above consensus by 0.20% - Vacation business revenue was 0.9 billion (YoY +7%), below consensus by 5.90% - Business travel management revenue was 0.6 billion (YoY +12%), above consensus by 4.36% - Other business revenue was 1.4 billion (YoY +33%), slightly below consensus by 0.96% [4] International Business Growth - The overseas OTA platform's booking volume increased by 60% YoY, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, largely due to strategic positioning and visa policy benefits - Inbound tourist numbers surged by 40.2% YoY, with 75% of visitors from visa-free countries, particularly from South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, where hotel orders increased by over 240% [4][5] Future Revenue and Profit Projections - Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion respectively, with YoY growth rates of +15%, +12%, and +12% - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion, with YoY growth rates of +3%, +16%, and +14% [7][10]

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Since May, credit bonds have performed well, especially long - term credit bonds. As of May 22, both the yield and credit spread of credit bonds have declined this month, with a divergence in short - and long - term trends. Long - term credit bonds are strong and have anti - decline properties [2]. - The strong performance of long - term credit bonds is due to the imbalance between supply and demand. The supply is relatively weak in May, while the configuration demand is growing. In June, the supply may increase, but the impact is expected to be limited. The demand for credit bonds is expected to continue, but potential changes in wealth management behavior around the mid - year point need attention [4]. - The strong performance of long - term credit bonds may continue in the short term, but the valuation fluctuation risk may increase. Factors such as the supply of credit bonds, the continuation of the "deposit transfer" phenomenon, and changes in wealth management behavior at the mid - year point should be focused on. It is recommended to prioritize the allocation of 5 - year high - grade credit bonds and appropriately select urban investment bonds for credit sinking around 2 - 3 years [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The yield of 1 - year urban investment bonds with various implicit ratings has generally declined by 12 - 13bp, with about 7 - 8bp from spread compression and about 5bp from the decline in risk - free interest rates. The yield of 5 - year urban investment bonds has also declined, but the decline is less than the spread compression [2]. - In the secondary market, the trading of credit bonds has shifted from the short - end to the long - end. As of May 22, the proportion of credit bonds with a remaining term of less than 1 year (considering exercise) has reached a one - year low, while the proportion of those with a term of more than 3 years has reached 30%, the third - highest in the past year [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, May is a small month for credit bond issuance. As of May 22, the net financing scale of the five major types of credit bonds is less than 30 billion yuan. The change in approval and supervision policies also indicates weak supply [4]. - On the demand side, the loose capital situation highlights the configuration value of credit bonds. The seasonal increase in wealth management scale in April and the "deposit substitution" effect brought about by the reduction of deposit interest rates support the strong demand for credit bonds [4]. Outlook and Strategy - In June, the supply of credit bonds may increase due to the peak maturity, but the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited. The "deposit substitution" effect may continue to drive the growth of wealth management scale and the demand for credit assets, but potential changes in wealth management behavior around the mid - year point need attention [4]. - It is recommended to prioritize the allocation of 5 - year high - grade credit bonds and appropriately select urban investment bonds for credit sinking around 2 - 3 years, and make comprehensive decisions based on the liquidity of individual bonds [6].

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.003 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 24%. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 362 million yuan, up 179% year-over-year, indicating improved operational conditions [6] - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in Q2 due to its anniversary season, with major updates and new heroes planned [7] - The company reported a daily active user (DAU) of 107 million, a year-over-year increase of 4.2%, and a monthly active user (MAU) of 370 million, indicating a stable growth in core users [8] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30.04 billion, 33.07 billion, and 36.26 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 1.82 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.92 billion yuan [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 26.832 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 19.1%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be -39 million yuan, showing a significant recovery in subsequent years [11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.09 yuan in 2024 to 9.18 yuan in 2027 [12] - The gross margin is expected to increase from 32.7% in 2024 to 39.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company's game business is showing steady growth, with a diversified content strategy [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.83 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8% [4] - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was 18.48 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 64.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-over-year [4] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 11.24 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 32.0% and a net margin of 39.0%, up 7.3 percentage points year-over-year [4] Game Business Performance - The revenue from games and related services in Q1 was 24 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 12.1% [5] - Key titles contributing to revenue include "Identity V," which was a major income source, and several new games that performed well [5] - The company has a strong pipeline of new games, including "Destiny: Rising" and "Marvel: Secret Wars," enhancing its product matrix [5] AI and Education Strategy - The Youdao business is advancing its "AI-native" strategy, achieving a gross margin of 47.3% in Q1 [6] - The integration of AI into educational products is aimed at enhancing the user experience and driving intelligent transformation across various sectors [6] Music and Content Ecosystem - The cloud music segment achieved a gross margin of 36.7% in Q1, with a focus on community ecosystem development to enhance user engagement [7] - The platform is leveraging AI capabilities for song recommendations and content creation, enriching the creator ecosystem [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 113.86 billion yuan, 118.78 billion yuan, and 124.09 billion yuan, respectively [8] - The adjusted net profit (Non-GAAP) for the same years is projected to be 38.81 billion yuan, 39.92 billion yuan, and 41.31 billion yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company's game business is showing steady growth, with a diversified content strategy [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.83 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8% [4] - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was 18.48 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 64.1%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.7 percentage points [4] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 11.24 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 32.0%, with a net margin of 39.0%, up 7.3 percentage points year-over-year [4] Summary by Sections Game Business Performance - The revenue from games and related services in Q1 was 24 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 12.1% [5] - Key titles contributing to revenue include "Identity V," which was the main revenue driver, and several new games like "Marvel Showdown" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" performing well in the market [5] - Long-term operational games are showing stable performance, with titles like "Identity V" and "Naraka: Bladepoint" maintaining steady revenue streams [5] Youdao Business Strategy - Youdao's business is advancing its "AI-native" strategy, achieving a gross margin of 47.3% in Q1 [6] - The strategy focuses on AI-enabled products and services to drive intelligent transformation across various industries [6] Cloud Music Operations - Cloud Music achieved a gross margin of 36.7% in Q1, with a focus on community ecosystem building to enhance user engagement [7] - The platform is leveraging AI capabilities for song recommendations and content creation, enriching its creator ecosystem [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 113.86 billion yuan, 118.78 billion yuan, and 124.09 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.81 billion yuan, 39.92 billion yuan, and 41.31 billion yuan [8] - The company expects a year-over-year revenue growth of 8.1% in 2025, followed by 4.3% and 4.5% in the subsequent years [11]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.003 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24%. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 362 million yuan, up 179% year-on-year, indicating improved operational conditions [6] - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in Q2 due to its anniversary season, with major updates and new heroes planned [7] - The company reported a daily active user (DAU) of 107 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a monthly active user (MAU) of 370 million, indicating a stable growth in core users [8] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30.04 billion, 33.07 billion, and 36.26 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 1.82 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.92 billion yuan [9] Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 26.832 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be -39 million yuan, showing a significant recovery in subsequent years [11] - The company is expected to achieve an EPS (NON-GAAP) of -0.09 in 2024, improving to 4.27 in 2025, 6.59 in 2026, and 9.18 in 2027 [13] - The gross margin is projected to increase from 32.7% in 2024 to 39.1% in 2027, indicating improving profitability [13]

Core Insights - The report presents a novel investment portfolio construction method that combines stock price momentum with hierarchical clustering (HC) to address the instability and concentration issues of Markowitz mean-variance (MV) portfolio weights [2][22] - The proposed Hierarchical Momentum (HM) strategy shows potential applicability in various domains such as stock portfolio construction, ETF portfolio construction, and asset allocation in the domestic market [2][22] Hierarchical Momentum Strategy - The HM strategy derives a distance function from the Pearson correlation coefficients between asset returns, using a bottom-up recursive approach to cluster assets based on proximity, resulting in a dendrogram [3][24] - At a certain height in the dendrogram, a horizontal cut is made to divide the tree into n clusters, identifying the assets with the highest momentum scores within each cluster while assigning zero weight to those with negative momentum scores [3][24] Empirical Results - The backtesting period spans from June 1997 to August 2022, utilizing a high-dimensional dataset from the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI), which includes large-cap and mid-cap stocks from 23 developed and 24 emerging markets [5][43] - After accounting for transaction costs, the HM strategy outperforms all other strategies in terms of cumulative returns, average returns, risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe and Sortino ratios), and risk metrics (volatility and maximum drawdown) [5][55] - The HM strategy demonstrates improved stability in industry allocation compared to the Maximum Momentum (MM) and Threshold Momentum (TM) strategies, which are known for their potential large drawdown issues [5][56] Methodology - The HM portfolio construction method does not require the inversion of the covariance matrix, instead relying on a hierarchical clustering approach to reduce dimensionality and ensure sparse diversification [24][68] - The method involves two main steps: applying hierarchical clustering to create a distance matrix and then constructing portfolio weights based on the hierarchical structure and momentum scores [24][38] Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of sparse diversification in constructing superior investment portfolios, particularly in high-dimensional environments where traditional methods may underperform [68][69] - The HM strategy effectively captures momentum premiums while mitigating risks associated with traditional momentum strategies, demonstrating its robustness across different economic conditions [68][69]