公司点评 | 盈利弹性超预期 | | --- | ——伊利股份 24 年报及 25Q1 点评 伊利股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600887） 主要观点： ⚫ 收入：液奶降幅收窄明显 ⚫ 盈利：成本红利+产品结构优化 ⚫ 投资建议：维持"买入" ➢ 我们的观点： 经过 24 年渠道库存去化，公司今年经营基础更加稳健，Q1 报表已 有较好反馈，随着 Q2 低基数来临，公司业绩有望逐季修复，全年 [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -33% -18% -4% 11% 26% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 伊利股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 邮箱：zhengshaoxuan@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.伊利股份 24Q3：渠道调整初见成 效 2024-10-31 2.聚焦长期，H2 有望环比改善 2024- 09-01 敬请参阅末页重要 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [6][9]. Core Views - The company's revenue has been impacted by the timing of the Spring Festival and channel adjustments [4]. - The gross profit margin increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to 38.7%, primarily due to a decline in raw material costs and optimized supply chain management [5]. - The net profit margin for the company increased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 16.4% [5]. - The company is expected to experience a low start followed by improvement in operations in the second half of 2025, driven by inventory destocking and a focus on traditional channel penetration and e-commerce expansion [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1, the company reported revenue of 1.102 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 181 million yuan, down 24.2% year-on-year [6][9]. - The main product, "Meiwei Xian," generated revenue of 1.08 billion yuan in Q1, a decline of 25.9% year-on-year, attributed to the Spring Festival timing and inventory destocking [6]. - Revenue from soy sauce, chicken essence, and cooking oil decreased by 31.6%, 28.6%, and 50.0% year-on-year, respectively [6]. - The company anticipates total revenue of 5.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [11]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 900 million yuan, 990 million yuan, and 1.11 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.0%, 9.1%, and 12.3% [6][11]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is expected to be 17, 15, and 14 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

伊利股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600887） 公司点评 | 盈利弹性超预期 | | --- | ——伊利股份 24 年报及 25Q1 点评 主要观点： ⚫ 收入：液奶降幅收窄明显 ⚫ 盈利：成本红利+产品结构优化 ⚫ 投资建议：维持"买入" ➢ 我们的观点： 经过 24 年渠道库存去化，公司今年经营基础更加稳健，Q1 报表已 有较好反馈，随着 Q2 低基数来临，公司业绩有望逐季修复，全年 [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -33% -18% -4% 11% 26% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 伊利股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 邮箱：zhengshaoxuan@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.伊利股份 24Q3：渠道调整初见成 效 2024-10-31 2.聚焦长期，H2 有望环比改善 2024- 09-01 敬请参阅末页重要 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 229 million yuan for Q1 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 27.8% at the end of the quarter. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.584 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.5%, and a net profit of 687 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4][8] - The total cost of pig farming has been continuously decreasing, reaching 12.4 yuan per kilogram in Q1 2025. The average cost for 2024 was approximately 13.9 yuan per kilogram, with Q4 dropping to 13.7 yuan per kilogram [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.584 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 43.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 687 million yuan, reflecting a significant turnaround [10] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%, and a net profit of 229 million yuan, also indicating a turnaround from losses [4][10] Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced its pig farming costs, with the complete cost dropping to 12.4 yuan per kilogram in Q1 2025. This is attributed to several factors, including the optimization of management and the implementation of health-focused development strategies [5][6] Production and Sales Forecast - The company expects to achieve pig output of 3.5 million heads in 2025, 4.5 million heads in 2026, and 5 million heads in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 54%, 29%, and 11% [8] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 6.537 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.1%, and a net profit of 1.005 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 46.4% [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.812 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.936 billion yuan, up 19.53% year-on-year [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.42% year-on-year, and a net profit of 584 million yuan, down 43.07% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year [5][6] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 51.69%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q1 2025 was 48.67%, down 7.17 percentage points year-on-year [6] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 21.902 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4%, and net profit is expected to be 3.015 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.7% [10] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 53.1% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 53.8% by 2027 [12] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 449 million yuan, a decrease of 64.86% year-on-year [6] Business Segments - The infusion business generated sales of 8.912 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 11.85% year-on-year, while non-infusion drug sales increased by 5.41% to 4.169 billion yuan [7] - The company’s antibiotic intermediates and raw materials achieved revenue of 5.856 billion yuan, up 20.90% year-on-year, driven by increased market demand [7] - The innovative drug "Jiatailai" (芦康沙妥珠单抗) was approved for commercialization, marking a new era for the company's innovative drug portfolio [8][9] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.902 billion yuan, 23.356 billion yuan, and 23.979 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.015 billion yuan, 3.346 billion yuan, and 3.408 billion yuan [10][12] - The company aims to improve the structure of its infusion products and continue benefiting from its intermediates and raw materials business [6][7]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of artificial intelligence (AI) in reshaping various industries, highlighting that AI applications require terminal devices with AI edge computing capabilities. The focus is on AI applications and AI terminals, with a call for self-reliance and strength in AI development [4][5][21] - The report notes that the best-performing sector within the electronic industry this week was digital chip design, with a growth rate of 4.33%, while passive components showed weaker performance with a decline of 1.31% [4][31] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a weekly change of -0.49%, while the Shenzhen Component Index saw a change of -0.17%. The ChiNext Index had a slight increase of +0.04%, and the STAR 50 Index rose by +0.78%. The Shenwan Electronics Index increased by +1.34% [4][31] - The report highlights that the server index was the best-performing concept index with a growth of 3.34%, while the EDA index was the weakest with a decline of 1.22% [4][31] Key Industry News - The report discusses the anticipated launch of Apple's foldable iPhone and iPhone 18 Pro series, indicating a strategic adjustment in Apple's product release schedule to manage its expanding product line [12][13] - A report from CounterPoint Research indicates that the smartphone shipment volume in India decreased by 7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to high inventory levels and a 26% drop in new product launches [14][19] - The report also mentions that Xi Jinping emphasized the need for self-reliance and application-oriented development in AI during a recent political meeting, highlighting the strategic importance of AI technology [21][22] Company Performance - The report identifies the top-performing stocks in the electronics sector for the week, including Guangda Tongchuang, Xunjiexing, and Yingtong Communications, while stocks like Xilong Science and Chuanxin Holdings performed poorly [49][50] - Year-to-date, the best-performing stocks include Landai Technology and Chip Origin Technology, while Guoxing Optoelectronics and Guoguang Electric have shown weaker performance [49][50]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit, with 2024 revenue reaching 5.584 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 43.5%, and a net profit of 687 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4][10] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.47 billion yuan, a 36% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 229 million yuan, also indicating a return to profitability [4][10] - The company's total asset-liability ratio at the end of Q1 2025 was 27.8%, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the end of 2024 [4] Financial Performance - The company’s total cost of pig farming has been decreasing, with the complete cost dropping to 12.4 yuan per kilogram in Q1 2025 [5][6] - The average complete cost for 2024 was approximately 13.9 yuan per kilogram, with Q4 2024 seeing a reduction to 13.7 yuan per kilogram [6] - The company aims to increase its pig output to 3.5 million heads in 2025 and 5 million heads in 2027, with expected revenue of 6.537 billion yuan, 7.818 billion yuan, and 8.935 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8][10] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.005 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46.4% [10] Operational Insights - The company has implemented several strategies to reduce costs, including optimizing management, upgrading hardware, and enhancing health standards in pig farming [6] - The company’s breeding strategy has been continuously improved, leading to better genetic indices and reduced health costs [6] - The company plans to increase its breeding sows by approximately 40,000 heads annually, aiming for a total of 160,000 by the end of 2025 [8]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of artificial intelligence (AI) in reshaping various industries, highlighting that AI applications require terminal devices with AI edge computing capabilities. The focus is on AI applications and AI terminals, with a call for self-reliance and strength in AI development [4][5][21][22]. Market Performance Review - During the week from April 28 to April 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.49%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.17%. The ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.04%, and the STAR 50 Index rose by 0.78%. The Shenwan Electronics Index increased by 1.34%, with the best-performing sector being digital chip design, which rose by 4.33%, while passive components saw a decline of 1.31% [4][31]. AI Infrastructure and Companies - AI infrastructure construction is crucial for supporting AI hardware, with relevant companies including Shengyi Technology, Shenghong Technology, and Industrial Fulian. Companies involved in AI terminal chips include Hengxuan Technology and Tai Lingwei, while AI mobile phones and headphones are associated with companies like Lixun Precision and GoerTek [5][21]. Key Industry News - Apple plans to launch its first foldable iPhone in the fall of 2026, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro series, while the standard version of the iPhone 18 is delayed until spring 2027. This adjustment is in response to the expanding product line [12][13]. - CounterPoint Research reported a 7% year-on-year decline in smartphone shipments in India for Q1 2025, primarily due to high inventory levels and a 26% drop in new product launches. However, demand for ultra-high-end products remains strong, with a 15% increase in market share for products priced above 45,000 INR [14][19]. Future Trends - Omdia predicts that Tandem OLED technology will reshape the tablet and laptop display market, with its penetration rate expected to rise to 36% by 2026, driven by Apple's new OLED products [24][25][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady growth momentum in revenue [6] - Profit growth is driven by product mix upgrades [7] - The quality of financial reports indicates a strong willingness to collect payments [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.523 billion yuan (up 7.72%), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 6.648 billion yuan (up 6.15%) [9] - In Q4 2024, revenue was 4.653 billion yuan (down 10.24%), with net profit at 893 million yuan (down 11.32%) [9] - For the year 2024, revenue totaled 36.011 billion yuan (up 12.79%), with net profit at 12.243 billion yuan (up 17.29%) [9] - Q1 2025 product revenue growth: Fenjiu series +8.2%, other series -15.5% [9] - In 2024, mid-to-high-end and other liquor revenues grew by 14.4% and 9.4% respectively [9] Profitability and Margins - Q1 2025 gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 78.8% due to product mix enhancement [9] - For 2024, gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points to 76.2% [9] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 39.497 billion yuan, 43.546 billion yuan, and 48.149 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 10.3%, and 10.6% [11] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 13.390 billion yuan, 14.810 billion yuan, and 16.500 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.4%, 10.6%, and 11.4% [11] - Current price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 19, 17, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of approximately 1.66 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 43.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 380 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 46.9%. The gross margin was approximately 40.7%, up by about 1.1 percentage points [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 380 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of about 14.4%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of about 12.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 70 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 3.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of about 17.3%. The gross margin was 37.7%, down by about 0.2 percentage points year-on-year and down by about 3.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company plans to increase R&D investment, with an R&D expense ratio of 7.0% in 2024 and expectations for continued increases in 2025. The current R&D expenses are primarily focused on chip inductors, with the fifth-generation iron-silicon products already on the market [6] - The company's three major AI-driven business segments are expected to see significant revenue growth, with capacity likely to continue being released. The metal soft magnetic powder core segment is projected to achieve revenue of 1.23 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.2% [6] - The inductor components segment is expected to achieve revenue of 390 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 275.8%. The company has entered the supplier lists of several well-known semiconductor manufacturers, laying the groundwork for future mass production [6] - The company anticipates net profits of 492 million yuan, 614 million yuan, and 722 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a slight downward adjustment for 2025 compared to previous expectations [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects operating revenue of 1.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 43.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 376 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [11] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 40.7% for 2025, with a projected net profit of 492 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.0% [11] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 23.71, 19.00, and 16.16, respectively [11]