Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Palo Alto Networks (PANW) with a target price raised by 17% to $464.40, based on a consistent price-to-sales ratio of 16.0x [3][14]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks reported a 13.9% year-over-year revenue growth for Q1 FY2025, reaching $2.1 billion, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1% [3]. - Non-GAAP net income for the same period was $544.9 million, reflecting a 17% increase year-over-year and surpassing consensus expectations by 6% [3]. - The company's platform strategy is showing initial success, which is expected to drive long-term market share growth [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Overview - Subscription and support revenue grew by 16% to $1.8 billion, accounting for 83% of total revenue, driven by increased adoption of Next-Generation Security (NGS) products [4]. - NGS Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $4.52 billion, a 40% year-over-year increase [4]. Financial Performance - Non-GAAP operating profit was $616.2 million, with a margin of 28.8%, exceeding market expectations by 1.2 percentage points [4]. - The report anticipates Q2 FY2025 total revenue to reach $2.23 billion, reflecting a 13% year-over-year growth [4]. Product Growth - Active SASE customer count increased by 20% year-over-year, with over 40% of new SASE customers being first-time adopters of PANW products [5]. - Cortex ARR reached $1 billion, with significant growth driven by XSIAM, where 40 customers have ARR exceeding $1 million, marking a 180% year-over-year increase [5]. Guidance Update - Management raised FY2025 guidance due to optimistic Q1 performance: NGS ARR is now projected between $5.52 billion and $5.57 billion, total revenue between $9.12 billion and $9.17 billion, and diluted non-GAAP EPS between $6.26 and $6.39 [6]. Valuation Metrics - The target enterprise value/sales for FY2025 is set at $158.2 billion, with a target price of $464.40 based on projected revenue [14]. - The report indicates a consistent growth trajectory in revenue and profitability metrics, with adjusted net income expected to reach $2.26 billion in FY2025 [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Palo Alto Networks (PANW) with a target price raised by 17% to US$464.4, reflecting a potential upside of 16.8% from the current price of US$397.70 [1][3]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks reported strong 1QFY25 results, with total revenue increasing by 13.9% year-over-year to US$2.1 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 1% [1]. - Non-GAAP net income for the same period reached US$544.9 million, up 17% year-over-year, and 6% better than consensus, driven by optimized sales and marketing expenses [1]. - The company's Platformization strategy is showing early positive results, which is expected to enhance long-term market share and operational efficiency [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1QFY25 subscription and support revenue grew 16% year-over-year to US$1.8 billion, accounting for 83% of total revenue [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit reached US$616.2 million, translating to a 28.8% non-GAAP operating profit margin, which is 1.2 percentage points better than consensus [1]. - The company has lifted its FY25 guidance for NGS ARR to US$5.52 billion - US$5.57 billion and total revenue to US$9.12 billion - US$9.17 billion [1]. Key Operating Metrics - The number of active SASE customers grew by 20% year-over-year, with over 40% of new SASE customers being new to PANW [1]. - NGS ARR reached US$4.52 billion by the end of 1QFY25, up 40% year-over-year, with expectations for continued growth driven by SASE and XSIAM products [1]. - The company achieved 1,100 total Platformizations among its top 5,000 customers, with a 6% increase in NGS ARR per platformized customer compared to FY24 [1]. Revenue Projections - FY25 revenue is projected at US$9.15 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14% [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit for FY25 is estimated at US$2.26 billion, with an adjusted EPS of US$6.45 [2]. - The revenue growth is expected to continue into FY26 and FY27, with projections of US$10.64 billion and US$12.27 billion respectively [2].

21 Nov 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update NIO Inc. (NIO US) NIO's cost control disappoints us again Maintain HOLD. Despite NIO's efforts to lift GPM in 3Q24, its cost control capabilities disappointed us once again. With the Onvo L60's designed GPM and continuous investments in battery swap, we see limited GPM improvement in FY25E despite 45% YoY growth in revenue on our estimates. We are of the view that management's guidance for breakeven in FY26 is t ...

21 Nov 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update NIO Inc. (NIO US) NIO's cost control disappoints us again Maintain HOLD. Despite NIO's efforts to lift GPM in 3Q24, its cost control capabilities disappointed us once again. With the Onvo L60's designed GPM and continuous investments in battery swap, we see limited GPM improvement in FY25E despite 45% YoY growth in revenue on our estimates. We are of the view that management's guidance for breakeven in FY26 is t ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 2.36 based on a 3x net present value (NPV) calculation [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a structural growth trend in nuclear power, leading to increased demand for natural uranium over the next decade. This is coupled with limited uranium supply, which is anticipated to keep uranium prices elevated in the coming years [2]. - The average uranium price is projected to rise to USD 85 per pound in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of over 30%, with further annual increases of 8% expected in 2025 and 2026 [2]. - The company's net profit is forecasted to double by 2026 compared to 2023, despite a projected decline in net profit for 2024 due to increased tax expenses [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company holds stakes in four low-cost uranium mines located in Kazakhstan through joint ventures with Kazatomprom (KAP). The average mining cost for these mines ranges from USD 17 to 27 per pound, which is considered low on a global scale [3]. Financial Projections - For 2023, the company's net profit is expected to decline by 11% to HKD 440 million, primarily due to a significant increase in tax expenses. However, net profits are projected to rebound with increases of 52% and 63% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1% increase in uranium spot prices could lead to a 0.7% increase in net profit for the company [4]. Cost and Tax Considerations - The report notes an increase in Kazakhstan's mineral extraction tax (MET), which will rise from 6% in 2024 to 9% in 2025. However, the overall impact of the new tax regime is expected to be manageable due to the relatively small scale of the mines [3]. - Anticipated increases in production costs are projected at 12% and 9% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, due to tight sulfuric acid supply [3].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Outperform** rating for the natural uranium industry, driven by a structural upward cycle in global nuclear power over the next decade [1] Core Viewpoints - The natural uranium market is expected to remain tight until 2028 due to a supply-demand imbalance, with a significant gap between primary supply and demand [1][34] - Long-term demand for natural uranium will be driven by factors such as AI development, global decarbonization, energy autonomy, and the increasing adoption of small modular reactors (SMRs) [1] - The global nuclear power sector is re-entering a growth phase, with 62 nuclear reactors under construction as of September 2024, most of which are expected to be operational by 2029 [1][13] - The report highlights that the natural uranium price needs to remain high to incentivize further uranium mining development to meet future demand [1] Industry Overview Global Nuclear Power Growth - The global nuclear power sector is expected to add an average of 11 GW of capacity annually from 2024 to 2029, significantly higher than the 2.1 GW average from 1988 to 2023 [1][13] - By 2029, the net nuclear capacity is projected to increase from 376 GW in 2024 to 432 GW, with a potential capacity of 500 GW by 2040, driving natural uranium demand to 92,000 tU [1][13] Natural Uranium Supply-Demand Dynamics - From 2024 to 2028, the primary supply-demand gap for natural uranium is expected to be 12,433 tU, 9,763 tU, 7,738 tU, 4,371 tU, and 1,228 tU respectively [1][34] - The supply-demand imbalance, although easing compared to previous years, is expected to persist due to ongoing disruptions in primary supply and the depletion of secondary supply [1][34] Long-Term Demand Drivers - The long-term demand for natural uranium will be supported by global decarbonization policies, AI-driven data center growth, and the adoption of SMRs [1][37][63] - SMRs, with their safety, flexibility, and cost advantages, are expected to significantly increase the penetration of nuclear energy, further boosting uranium demand [63][65] Key Companies - **CGN Mining (1164 HK)**: The company, through joint ventures with Kazatomprom, holds four low-cost uranium mines in Kazakhstan and is expected to benefit from rising uranium prices. The report forecasts a 30%+ increase in uranium prices in 2024, with further 8% annual increases in 2025 and 2026 [1] - **Cameco (CCJ US)**: As the second-largest uranium producer globally, Cameco is well-positioned to benefit from the rising uranium market, particularly due to its long-term contract strategy and high-grade uranium mines [1] Natural Uranium Market Recovery Historical Context - The natural uranium market experienced a price surge from 2000 to 2007 due to stable nuclear power development and a commodity supercycle, but prices declined after the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 [3] - Supply shocks, such as weather-related production cuts and geopolitical events, have historically influenced uranium prices, either accelerating price increases or mitigating declines [3] Post-2022 Market Recovery - Since 2022, uranium prices have entered an upward trend due to supply disruptions, including production cuts by major producers and political instability in key uranium-producing countries [4] - The recovery is also driven by increased government focus on nuclear power as a means to ensure energy security and combat climate change, as highlighted by the COP28 commitment to triple nuclear capacity by 2050 [4][40] Mid-Term Supply and Demand (2024E-2029E) Demand - The demand for natural uranium is expected to grow steadily, driven by new nuclear reactors coming online and strategic stockpiling by nuclear power plants [17][20] - By 2029, the demand for natural uranium is projected to reach 72,374 tU, with an annual growth rate of 3.3% to 6.5% from 2024 to 2029 [20] Supply - Primary supply is constrained by factors such as sulfuric acid shortages in Kazakhstan and political instability in Niger, which have disrupted uranium production [27][28] - Global uranium production is expected to increase from 56,154 tU in 2024 to 82,879 tU in 2029, but this growth may not be sufficient to meet demand, leading to continued supply deficits [28][30] Long-Term Supply and Demand (2030E-2040E) Demand - By 2040, global nuclear capacity is projected to reach 500 GW, with natural uranium demand reaching 92,000 tU under a base scenario [37] - The adoption of SMRs and the expansion of nuclear power in countries like China will be key drivers of long-term uranium demand [37][53] Supply - The long-term supply of uranium is expected to face challenges due to low exploration and development expenditures in recent years, which could limit future production [69] - Secondary supply, which has historically helped balance the market, is expected to decline, further exacerbating supply shortages [76] Key Risks - Delays in the construction and commissioning of planned nuclear reactors could reduce the expected demand for natural uranium [89] - Economic downturns or shifts in energy policy could slow the development of nuclear power, impacting uranium demand [89] - Technological advancements in energy storage or nuclear fusion could reduce the reliance on traditional nuclear power and uranium [89]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on China General Nuclear Power Corporation Mining (1164 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 2.36, reflecting a potential upside of 32.0% from the current price of HKD 1.79 [3][15]. Core Views - The report anticipates a structural growth in nuclear power demand over the next decade, which will benefit natural uranium prices, projected to remain high due to limited supply [1]. - The company holds stakes in four low-cost uranium mines in Kazakhstan through joint ventures with Kazatomprom, positioning it well to capitalize on rising uranium prices [1]. - The average uranium price is expected to rise to USD 85 per pound in 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 30%, with further annual increases of 8% in 2025 and 2026 [1][7]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a net profit of HKD 4.4 billion for 2024, a decline of 11% year-on-year, primarily due to increased tax expenses [1][7]. - Net profits are expected to rebound in 2025 and 2026, with projected increases of 52% and 63%, respectively [1][7]. - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1% increase in uranium spot prices could lead to a 0.7% increase in net profit for the company [1][7]. Operational Insights - The company’s main profit sources are the joint ventures with Semizbay-U and Ortalyk, which are expected to contribute net profits of HKD 9.5 billion, HKD 10 billion, and HKD 11 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7]. - The average production costs for the mines are projected to rise by 12% and 9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, due to tight supply of sulfuric acid [1][7]. Valuation Methodology - The target price is based on a net present value (NPV) calculation, reflecting future cash flows discounted to present value, with a multiple of 3x NPV applied [1][15]. - Long-term assumptions include uranium prices starting at USD 101 per pound from 2027, increasing by 1.5% annually, and a stable price of USD 107 per pound from 2032 to 2042 [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Weibo, with a target price of US$15.00, reflecting a potential upside of 76.3% from the current price of US$8.51 [2][16]. Core Insights - Weibo's 3Q24 results exceeded expectations, with net revenue increasing by 5% YoY to US$465 million, driven by stabilization in advertising revenue and strong growth in VAS revenue [1][2]. - The company is cautiously optimistic about macroeconomic policy stimulus but anticipates a delayed impact on consumption and advertising demand [1][2]. - Advertising revenue in 3Q24 rose by 2% YoY to US$399 million, primarily due to growth in the food & beverage and automobile sectors, while some sectors like cosmetics and handsets faced challenges [1][2]. - VAS revenue grew significantly by 25% YoY in 3Q24, supported by enhanced membership services [1][2]. - The forecast for 4Q24 indicates a potential decline in advertising revenue by 4% YoY, attributed to a high-base effect and soft demand in certain verticals [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, total revenue is projected at US$1,755 million, with adjusted net profit expected to be US$466.9 million [5][9]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) for 3Q24 was 35.4%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points YoY, mainly due to increased sales and marketing expenses [1][2]. - The adjusted EPS for FY24E is estimated at US$1.97, with a gradual increase expected in subsequent years [5][9]. User Engagement Metrics - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) decreased by 3% YoY to 587 million as of September 2024, but the Daily Active Users (DAU) to MAU ratio improved to 43.8% [1][2]. - Total interactions on Weibo's front page increased significantly on a quarter-over-quarter basis, indicating improved user engagement [1][2].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US$71 0, representing a 15 8% upside from the current price of US$61 32 [1][2] Core Views - Trip com Group (TCOM) reported strong 3Q24 results with total revenue of RMB15 9bn, up 16% YoY, 2% above Bloomberg consensus estimates [1] - Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB5 5bn, 6% better than consensus, driven by optimized sales and marketing spend [1] - Domestic business volume growth exceeded expectations, and outbound business recovery is on track, reaching 120% of 2019 levels in 3Q24 [1] - Incremental investment in international expansion is expected to support long-term revenue and earnings growth [1] - DCF-based target price raised by 8% to US$71 0, reflecting a more positive earnings outlook and valuation rollover to 2025E [1][10] Financial Performance Revenue and Profitability - 3Q24 revenue: RMB15 9bn, up 16% YoY, with domestic hotel reservations growing by mid-to-high-teens YoY and outbound air and hotel reservations recovering to 120% of 2019 levels [1] - Non-GAAP OPM for 3Q24 was 34 4%, 1 5ppts better than consensus, driven by efficient S&M spend [1] - 4Q24E revenue estimated at RMB12 4bn, up 20% YoY, 2% ahead of consensus [1] - Non-GAAP OPM for 4Q24E/2024E estimated at 20 7%/30 3%, compared to 25 6%/29 6% in 4Q23/2023 [1] Segment Performance - Domestic air tickets volume grew by mid-to-high single digits (MHSD) YoY in 3Q24, with a similar trend in 4Q24 QTD [1] - Outbound air and hotel reservations outperformed the industry by ~40ppts, reaching 120% of 2019 levels in 3Q24 [1] - Trip com achieved robust YoY revenue growth of ~60% in 3Q24, driven by strong growth in air tickets and hotel reservations [1] Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E/2025E/2026E estimated at RMB52 985bn/60 765bn/67 886bn, with YoY growth of 18 9%/14 7%/11 7% [5] - Adjusted net profit for 2024E/2025E/2026E estimated at RMB16 811 7bn/17 807 3bn/20 149 2bn, with YoY growth of 28 6%/5 9%/13 2% [5] Valuation and Growth - DCF-based target price of US$71 0, translating into 21 3x/20 7x 2024E/2025E PE (non-GAAP) [1][10] - Non-GAAP OP expected to grow at a 23-25E CAGR of 19% [1] - Gross margin for 2024E/2025E/2026E estimated at 81 5%/81 4%/81 4%, with operating margin at 26 3%/27 4%/28 5% [5][19] International Expansion - Trip com's international expansion, particularly in Asia, is supported by low online penetration and strong supply chain capabilities [1] - The company is expected to achieve a better OPM profile in international markets compared to domestic business, driven by higher AOV for international hotels and higher take rates for international ticketing [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a target price of US$15.00, down from the previous target of US$15.50, indicating a potential upside of 76.3% from the current price of US$8.51 [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a 5% year-over-year increase in net revenue for Q3 2024, reaching US$465 million, which exceeded Bloomberg consensus estimates by 7% [6]. - Advertising revenue grew by 2% year-over-year to US$399 million, primarily driven by strong performance in the food and beverage sector due to the Paris Olympics [7]. - The management remains cautiously optimistic about macroeconomic policy stimulus, although they believe the effects will take time to materialize [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, the company expects revenue of US$1,755 million, with adjusted net profit projected at US$467 million and adjusted EPS at US$1.97 [12]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin for Q3 2024 was 35.4%, a decline of 1.6 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to increased sales and marketing investments [8]. - The company anticipates a 4% decline in advertising revenue for Q4 2024 due to high base effects and weak demand in certain consumer-related verticals [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 was supported by a 25% increase in value-added services (VAS) revenue, which reached US$66 million [7]. - Monthly active users (MAUs) decreased by 3% year-over-year to 587 million, but the daily active users to monthly active users ratio improved to 43.8% [7]. Future Outlook - The management expects that the advertising business recovery will require more time, particularly in sectors like cosmetics and luxury goods, where demand has not shown significant improvement [8]. - The company is projected to benefit from policy stimulus and a gradual recovery in consumer spending, with a non-GAAP P/E ratio of 5x for FY25, indicating a favorable margin of safety [8].