2025 年 3 月 25 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 比亚迪（1211 HK/002594 CH，买入，目标价：470 港元/440 元人民币) - 4Q24 高质量盈利为 2025 年盈利增长奠定基础 4Q24 业绩超预期，盈利质量高：比亚迪 4Q24 收入较我们先前预测高 6%。 尽管受到行业价格战的影响，公司剔除比亚迪电子业务后，平均售价连续两 个季度环比提升。4Q24 毛利率降至 17.0%，主要受到会计准则变更（将质保 金从销售费用调整至营业成本）的影响，还原可比口径，4Q24 毛利率应为 21.5%，较我们预期高 0.9 个百分点。4Q24 研发费用较我们预测高约 16% （2024 年研发投入 540 亿元，98%费用化），净利润环比增长 29%至 150 亿 元，较我们的预期高出 14%。 更全面的产品矩阵+出海+电池技术升级+自动驾驶追赶共筑 2025 增长动能： 我们认为公司 4Q24 扎实的业绩表现再次验证规模经济优势。我们预计比亚 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市 ...

2025 年 3 月 20 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 中国重卡板块 - 货车以旧换新补贴涵盖国四和天然气卡车；潍柴成为主要受 惠者 事件: 中国交通运输部、发改委和财政部于 3 月 18 日联合发布了关于实施老 旧营运货车报废更新的通知。2025 年的补贴水平将与 2024 年大致相同。主 要变化包括：(1) 新补贴范围涵盖国三和国四货车的提前报废（去年仅限国三 及以下）；(2) 购买所有货车均可享受补贴（之前仅限柴油货车）。 我们的观点：新的补贴计划增强了我们对今年重卡销售的积极看法，主要由 于: (1) 根据我们的估计，国四重卡保有量规模占总重卡的 30%；(2) 最重要的 是，今年新购车的补贴范围将包括天然气货车，而去年仅包括柴油货车。我 们认为潍柴动力 (2338 HK / 000338 CH, 买入) 将成为主要受益者，因为公司 在天然气重卡发动机市场占有主导地位 (>60%)。我们给予持有评级的中国重 汽 (3808 HK) 也将受益。（链接） 公司点评 腾讯（700 HK；买入；目标价：625.0 港元）- 加大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for INT Medical, expecting a return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [2][18]. Core Insights - INT Medical's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 13.2% year-on-year to RMB 852 million, slightly below the forecasted 13% due to pressures from value-based pricing (VBP) and intense competition in the CDMO sector [1][2]. - The company achieved a significant gross margin improvement of 5 percentage points, reaching 63.1% in 2024, driven by increased capacity utilization and automation [1]. - Overseas sales are optimistic, with total overseas revenue expected to grow by 24.2% year-on-year to RMB 253 million, accounting for 29.6% of total sales [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to increase from RMB 753 million in 2023 to RMB 1,025 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 20.4% [3]. - The attributable net profit is expected to rise from RMB 192 million in 2024 to RMB 206 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from RMB 1.10 in 2024 to RMB 1.17 in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 6.6% [3]. Valuation - The target price for INT Medical is set at HKD 33.68 based on a 9-year DCF model with a terminal growth rate of 2.0% and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.73% [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for INT Medical, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - INT Medical's revenue for 2024 grew by 13.2% YoY to RMB 852 million, which was 13% below the analyst's estimate, primarily due to pressures on its CDMO business from VBP and increased competition [1]. - The company's attributable net profit increased by 22.7% YoY to RMB 192 million, with a net profit margin improvement of 1.7 percentage points [1]. - The target price is set at HK$33.68, reflecting a 25% upside from the current price of HK$26.95 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are RMB 1,025 million, RMB 1,225 million, and RMB 1,398 million, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 20.4%, 19.5%, and 14.1% [2]. - Attributable net profit for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E is expected to be RMB 206 million, RMB 245 million, and RMB 280 million, with YoY growth rates of 7.5%, 18.7%, and 14.4% [2]. - The gross margin improved to 63.1% in 2024, up 5 percentage points, driven by enhanced capacity utilization and increased automation [7]. Market and Operational Insights - INT Medical expanded its overseas customer base to 281, covering over 86 countries and regions, with overseas revenue growing by 24.2% YoY to RMB 253 million, representing 29.6% of total sales [7]. - The company has implemented cost-reduction and efficiency-enhancement measures, which are expected to stabilize gross margins despite the negative impact of VBP [7]. - The report anticipates solid revenue growth for INT Medical in 2025E, with revenue and attributable net profit projected to increase by 20.4% YoY and 7.5% YoY, respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dmall Group Co., Ltd. (2586 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 16.00, based on a 6.0x price-to-sales ratio for FY25 [1][10]. Core Insights - Dmall achieved breakeven for FY24, with total revenue increasing by 17% year-on-year to RMB 18.6 billion, and adjusted net profit improving to RMB 298 million from a loss of RMB 2.77 billion in FY23, driven by strong growth in core retail services and operational efficiency [1][2]. - The company is focusing on AI retail to capture new growth opportunities, having launched several AI agent products that are expected to contribute to revenue growth in the long term [1][2]. - For FY25, management anticipates revenue growth of 15-20% and further margin expansion, although revenue forecasts for FY25-26 have been adjusted downward due to slower customer acquisition [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue reached RMB 18.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17% [4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved from 35.0% in FY23 to 40.1% in FY24, while the adjusted net profit margin rose from -14.7% to 1.6% [3][12]. - The retail core service cloud revenue grew by 39% to RMB 1.81 billion, with AIoT solutions seeing a 65% increase to RMB 1.02 billion [2][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY25 are set at RMB 2.19 billion, with expected growth rates of 17.8% for FY26 and 14.1% for FY27 [4][12]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 134.4 million in FY25, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [4][12]. - The report indicates a projected increase in adjusted net profit margins to 6.1% in FY25 and 17.6% in FY27 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Dmall Inc, with a target price raised to HK$16.00 from the previous HK$8.50, indicating a potential upside of 22.5% from the current price of HK$13.06 [1][3]. Core Insights - Dmall achieved full-year breakeven in FY24, with total revenue increasing by 17% YoY to RMB1.86 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB29.8 million, a significant turnaround from an adjusted net loss of RMB277 million in FY23 [1][2]. - The company is focusing on AI retail to drive long-term growth, having launched several AI agent products that are expected to contribute to revenue in the long term [1][6]. - For FY25E, management anticipates total revenue growth of 15-20% YoY, with further margin expansion expected [1]. Financial Performance - FY24 revenue was RMB1.86 billion, up 17.3% YoY, with adjusted net profit of RMB29.8 million compared to a loss of RMB233 million in FY23 [2][10]. - Revenue from the retail core service cloud solution grew by 39% YoY to RMB1.81 billion, with AIoT solutions revenue increasing by 65% YoY to RMB1.02 billion [6][10]. - Gross profit margin improved from 35.0% in FY23 to 40.1% in FY24, and adjusted net margin rose from -14.7% to 1.6% [6][10]. Revenue Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for FY25E and FY26E have been revised downwards due to a slower customer acquisition pace, with FY25E revenue now expected at RMB2.19 billion, a decrease of 14.6% from previous estimates [7][10]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected to be RMB134 million, reflecting a growth of 351% YoY [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of HK$16.00 is based on a valuation multiple of 6.0x FY25E EV/sales, which aligns with the average EV/sales of global SaaS peers [3][8]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in operating profit, projecting RMB121 million for FY25E, compared to a loss in previous years [7][10].

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.46% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 3.96% year-to-date [1][2] - European markets saw gains, particularly in Germany, where military stocks surged following a historic parliamentary decision to increase defense spending [3] - US markets declined, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 2%, driven by losses in communication services and consumer discretionary sectors [3][4] Industry Insights Real Estate - The report recommends increasing allocation to quality real estate stocks, citing policy support from cities like Shenzhen and Suzhou easing housing purchase restrictions [5] - Strong sales data indicates a robust recovery, with new home transaction volume up 2% year-on-year and second-hand home transactions up 38% [5] - The report anticipates a 70% probability of positive impacts on the sector in Q2, driven by improved consumer sentiment and reduced concerns over financing issues [5] Technology - Tencent Music reported a 8% year-on-year revenue increase to 7.5 billion yuan, with a 45% rise in non-IFRS net profit, driven by improved gross margins and cost control [6] - Xiaomi's revenue and adjusted net profit grew by 49% and 69% respectively, with strong performance in IoT and electric vehicle segments [12] - XPeng Motors achieved a 59% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase, with expectations for continued growth driven by new model launches and international expansion [10][11] Healthcare - WuXi AppTec's revenue decreased by 2.73% to 39.2 billion yuan, but showed signs of improvement in Q4, with a 70.1% revenue growth in TIDES business [13][14] - The company anticipates a 10-15% revenue growth in 2025, supported by a significant increase in orders [14][15] Consumer Goods - Anta Sports is expected to see growth driven by its Saucony brand, which is projected to grow by 30-40% [16][17] - The company is implementing a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, which is expected to enhance long-term growth prospects despite short-term sales impacts [17][18] Company Specifics Tencent Music - The company reported a 45% increase in non-IFRS net profit, driven by strong growth in online music services and improved operational efficiency [6] Xiaomi - The company raised its electric vehicle delivery target to 350,000 units for 2025, reflecting strong demand and growth potential in the EV market [12] XPeng Motors - The company expects to achieve quarterly breakeven by Q4 2025, with projected sales growth supported by new model launches [10][11] WuXi AppTec - The company plans to increase capital expenditures by 75-100% in 2025 to support growth in its TIDES business, which has seen significant order increases [14][15] Anta Sports - The company is focusing on expanding its Saucony brand and implementing a DTC strategy to enhance customer experience and drive sales growth [16][17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [28]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight rebound in U.S. retail sales growth in February, but it remains significantly below market expectations, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.2%, lower than the anticipated 0.6%. January's growth was revised down from -0.9% to -1.2% [4][5]. - Consumer spending is showing signs of slowing down, particularly in durable goods, sports and entertainment products, and clothing. The food service sector experienced its largest decline in 2023, with a drop of 1.5% in February [4][5]. - The report indicates that uncertainty stemming from recent policies, including tariffs and government spending cuts, is likely to suppress overall demand, impacting both corporate investment and household durable goods consumption [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting while reiterating its commitment to controlling inflation, but it will also be cautious of economic downturn risks [4][5]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - February retail and food service sales showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of 0.2%, with the largest category, automotive and parts sales, declining by 0.4% after a significant drop of 3.7% in January [4][5]. - Online shopping rebounded from a decline of 2.4% in January to a growth of 2.4% in February, although it remains below the average growth rate from previous years [4][5]. - The report notes a rising household savings rate, indicating a potential impact on consumer confidence due to the uncertainty created by recent policies [4][5]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that inflation uncertainty and economic downturn risks are increasing, with the Michigan long-term inflation expectations rising to 3.9%, the highest level since 1993 [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve is projected to pause interest rate cuts in May, June, and July, with potential cuts of 1-2 times in September or December [4][5].

Economic Overview - In February, U.S. retail sales showed a slight rebound with a month-on-month growth of 0.2%, but this was below market expectations of 0.6%[4] - January's retail growth was revised down from -0.9% to -1.2%[4] - The largest category, automotive and parts sales, fell by 0.4% in February after a significant drop of 3.7% in January[4] Consumer Spending Trends - Durable goods and food service sectors continued to show weakness, with food service sales experiencing the largest decline since 2023 at -1.5%[4] - E-commerce rebounded from -2.4% in January to 2.4% in February, although it remains below the average growth rate from the previous year[4] - Personal care retail sales increased from negative growth to 1.7%, while sports and apparel categories declined by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively[4] Economic Risks and Federal Reserve Outlook - The uncertainty from Trump's tariffs, immigration policies, and government spending cuts is expected to reduce overall demand and suppress business investment and durable goods consumption, leading to economic downturn risks[4] - Inflation uncertainty is rising, with long-term inflation expectations reaching 3.9%, the highest since 1993[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with guidance suggesting two potential rate cuts later in the year[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XtalPi, indicating an expected return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [21]. Core Insights - XtalPi is positioned as an AI-driven innovative R&D platform with stable revenue growth, focusing on drug discovery solutions and intelligent automation services [1][2]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with leading pharmaceutical companies, enhancing its capabilities in drug discovery and automation [1]. - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 174 million in FY23 to RMB 251 million in FY24 (44% YoY) and further to RMB 434 million in FY25 (73% YoY) [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - XtalPi's revenue is forecasted to increase significantly, with FY24E revenue at RMB 251 million and FY25E at RMB 434 million, reflecting growth rates of 44% and 73% respectively [4][16]. - The company has a diverse revenue stream from both drug discovery and intelligent automation, which are on stable growth trajectories [3]. Financial Position - XtalPi completed two financing arrangements in 2025, raising HKD 3.2 billion to strengthen its cash reserves and support future growth plans [3]. - The financial summary indicates a net loss reduction from RMB 1,906 million in FY23 to RMB 1,491 million in FY24E, and further to RMB 310 million in FY25E [4][16]. Partnerships and Collaborations - The company has a broad network of partnerships across various industries, including collaborations with GCL Group for new energy materials and with Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine for traditional medicine R&D [2]. - XtalPi's partnerships with major firms like Microsoft China and JW Pharmaceuticals highlight its potential in biomedicine and new materials innovation [2]. Valuation - The target price for XtalPi is set at HKD 7.57 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a weighted average cost of capital of 9.64% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [3][13].