30 Sep 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中国虹桥(1378 香港) 预计中国刺激后 ASP 会上升 我们相信铝（Al）是受中国推出一系列强力市场政策影响最为敏感的行业之一 。这将与美元因美国开始降息周期而走弱以及铝相对较有限的新供应量相结合 ，有望在短期内推动铝价上涨，成为虹桥的关键催化剂。我们上调了2024年至 2026年的盈利预测，增幅为9-12%，主要由于铝价假设上调。据估计，每1%的 铝价上涨将使虹桥的每股收益增加4%。目前，虹桥正处于中期估值水平（2024 年市盈率7倍），具有吸引力的股息收益率7%。基于不变的9.8倍2024年市盈率 ，我们新的目标价为19.6港元（此前为17.9港元）。维持 BUY . ... 近期需求将得到政策的支持。 我们估计，中国的建筑（包括房地产和基 础设施）以及汽车市场分别占全球人工智能需求的16%和14%。我们认为，中 国政府的政策将有助于稳定上述需求的预期。从长期来看，我们继续看好汽车 轻量化趋势和太阳能安装的快速增长，这些因素将成为人工智能结构性增长的 动力。 新供应有限... 中国8月份的铝产量同比增长放缓至1.3%（低于6月和 ...

30 Sep 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Expect higher ASP following China's stimulus We believe aluminum (Al) is one of the sectors that is highly sensitive to the launch of the series of forceful pro-market policies in China. This, together with the weakness of dollar as a results of the start of rate-cut cycle in the US and a relatively limited new supply of Al, will likely boost the near-term Al price which will serve as ke ...

Investment Rating - Maintain **Buy** rating with a revised target price of HK$107.84, up from HK$97.05, reflecting a 24.2% upside potential [2][3] - The new target price is based on a 20x FY25E P/E multiple, up from 18x, due to improved investor sentiment following central government stimulus measures [2] Core Views - The company's new retail formats, such as the "ANTA Super Store," "ANTA Champion Store," "ANTA SNEAKERVERSE," "ANTA Arena," and "ANTA Palace," are successfully driving growth and expanding the customer base [1] - The ANTA Super Store in Shenzhen, with a monthly sales estimate of RMB 1.5 million, outperforms regular ANTA stores, with annual sales per square meter reaching RMB 21,000, compared to RMB 16,000 for regular stores [6] - The company aims to open 10 ANTA Super Stores in FY24 and expand to 40 stores within three years, potentially contributing 2% to ANTA brand sales by FY26 [6] - The company's market segmentation strategy, including targeting mass-market, premium, and niche markets, is well-executed and supports future growth [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% from FY23 to FY26E, with net profit growing at a CAGR of 16% [2] - FY24E revenue is projected at RMB 70.3 billion, with net profit of RMB 13.7 billion, representing a 12.8% YoY growth in revenue and 21.4% YoY growth in net profit [3][19] - FY25E revenue is forecasted at RMB 78.3 billion, with net profit of RMB 15.0 billion, reflecting an 11.4% YoY revenue growth and 9.7% YoY net profit growth [3][19] - FY26E revenue is expected to reach RMB 87.1 billion, with net profit of RMB 17.6 billion, indicating an 11.2% YoY revenue growth and 17.5% YoY net profit growth [3][19] Store Performance and Strategy - The ANTA Super Store in Shenzhen, with a floor area of 670 sqm (860 sqm including warehouse), achieves monthly sales exceeding RMB 1 million, with an average ticket size of RMB 330 [6] - The store offers a wide range of products, including training gear, professional sports, outdoor products, and sports culture, with approximately 1,000 SKUs [1] - The store's product mix differs from regular ANTA stores, with only 10% overlap in SKUs, and a higher proportion of evergreen products [1] - The company's strategy to attract new customers, particularly families and students, is successful, with over 90% of customers being first-time visitors to ANTA Group [6] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's FY25E P/E of 16x is below its 5-year historical average of 25x, indicating undervaluation [2] - The company's ROE is expected to remain strong, at 24.7% in FY26E, compared to 26.0% in FY21A [3][19] - Peer comparison shows ANTA Sports trading at a lower P/E multiple compared to some international brands like Nike and Adidas, which trade at higher multiples [17] Growth Drivers - The company's new retail formats and market segmentation strategy are key growth drivers, supported by strong execution and financial performance [1][6] - The ANTA Super Store model, with its high sales per square meter and attractive pricing, is expected to drive significant growth in the coming years [6] - The company's focus on expanding its customer base, particularly through family and student segments, is expected to contribute to long-term growth [6]

27 Sep 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Anta Sports (2020 HK) Takeaways from the Anta Superstore visit The Anta Superstore we visited is fairly competitive and should be a decent growth driver onwards, supported by its superior price to quality and great variety of choices. Moreover, it can also acquire more family-type customers, and it has reasonable room for store expansion and decent financials (both sales per store and sales per sq.m are better t ...

点击蓝字 关注我们 免重 责要 招商银行全资附属机构 百度（BIDU US， 买入， 目标价：180.50美元）：2024云智大会：进一步推动大模型产业化落地 我们参加了百度于25-26日举办的2024云智大会。针对算力、模型、AI应用三个方面，百度升级百舸AI异构计 算平台4.0、千帆大模型平台3.0两大AI基础设施，并升级智能客服（客悦）、代码助手（文心快码）、数字人 （曦灵）三大AI原生应用产品，进一步推动大模型产业化落地、赋能企业生产力效率提升从而提升云业务的用 量并获取大模型时代增量的变现机会。我们看好百度云业务在GPU时代的增长前景，基于较为领先的基础设施 架构及技术实力、受益于GPU云业务营收持续起量、及基于GPU云服务交叉销售CPU云服务，百度云业务营收 增速有望稳步恢复、利润率水平有望受益于规模效应扩大及相对较高利润率GPU云业务营收占比提升而持续提 升。我们基于SOTP的目标价对百度的估值为每ADS 180.5美元，其中云业务的估值为每ADS 32.2美元，占比 目标估值17.8%。维持买入评级。 本档仅供参考，投资者应仅依赖此发售之发行通函所载资料作出投资决定。版权归招银国际及相关内容提 ...

2024 年 9 月 26 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 百度 (BIDU US) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

2024 年 9 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 超预期幅度降息但指引偏鹰 美联储以超预期 50 个基点降息开启宽松周期，在决议声明中强调就业目标，显 示防止就业市场进一步放缓的决心。点阵图对美国经济预测仍然乐观，小幅下 调对今年 GDP 增速和今明两年 PCE 通胀预测，小幅上调对今明两年失业率预 测，预测更多降息从明年前移至今年。鲍威尔在记者会上释放鹰派信号，强调 此次降息是预防性措施，并不意味着未来继续大幅降息。美股冲高回落，国债 收益率和美元指数先跌后涨，部分投资者选择"卖事实"。此次降息将提振经 济预期和资产价格，但可能延长通胀降至目标的时间。预计美联储今年可能仍 有 2 次合计 50 个基点降息，明年可能有 4 次合计 100 个基点降息。美元降息将 增加国际流动性供应，降低国际资金成本，推动收益率曲线陡峭化。美元降息 将随着美欧和美日经济增速差收窄，可能带动美元指数温和回落，利好新兴市 场货币与股市，但利好程度仍要看新兴市场自身经济基本面和投资回报率前 景。美元降息周期将提振人民币汇率，减轻汇率对中国利率政策制约，对港股 提振作用大于 A 股。 美联储超预期 ...

2024 年 9 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 互联网 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 2Q 业绩总结及选股策略更新：确定性或仍为主线 | | | | | 业绩后我们认为未来 6 个月的重要选股主线： 1 ）公司基本面稳健，且未来营收 及盈利增长确定性较高； 2 ...

16 Sep 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Adobe (ADBE US) Solid 3QFY24 results but soft guidance may weigh on short-term sentiment Adobe announced solid 3QFY24 results, but 4QFY24 guidance was softer than expected: 3QFY24 total revenue was up by 11% YoY to US$5.41bn, in line with consensus estimate; 3QFY24 non-GAAP net income grew by 11% YoY to US$2.08bn, in line with consensus. Digital Media net new ARR was US$504mn in 3QFY24 and c.10% ahead of the company guidance, as ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Haier Smart Home with a target price (TP) of HK$ 31.58, reflecting an upside potential of 31.3% from the current price of HK$ 24.05 [2][3]. Core Insights - The sales growth slowdown in 2Q24 was unexpected, but margin improvements were notable. The outlook for 2H24 is positive, driven by government subsidies, potential interest rate cuts, new product launches, and margin recovery in the EU [2][6]. - The "old for new" trade subsidies initiated in August 2024 are expected to favor high-end products, with significant sales growth observed in home appliances, particularly in Hubei province, where sales increased by 30% YoY [2][6]. - Haier's FY24E guidance remains unchanged, targeting mid-single-digit sales growth in China and over 10% growth overseas, with specific categories like air-conditioners and kitchen appliances expected to perform well [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 273.7 billion, with a YoY growth of 4.7%. Net profit is expected to reach RMB 19.6 billion, reflecting a 15.2% growth [3][12]. - The report indicates a fine-tuning of net profit forecasts for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E by +1%/-1%/-1% respectively, accounting for slower sales growth but improved operating leverage and efficiency gains [2][7]. - The earnings summary shows a consistent increase in revenue and net profit over the forecast period, with net profit margins improving from 7.1% in FY24E to 7.7% in FY26E [3][12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Haier is positioned to benefit from the ongoing subsidy programs, with a significant portion of local sales companies and distributors engaged in discussions with the government [2][6]. - The company is expected to leverage its market leadership to capture more high-end demand, with Casarte brand products showing exceptional sales growth [2][6]. - The report highlights Haier's strategic focus on high-end product sales and operational efficiencies, which are anticipated to enhance gross and operating margins in the upcoming periods [6][7].