证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 通信设备 业绩符合预期，高端占比持续提升 ——中际旭创 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩点评 投资要点 ❑ 业绩符合预期，25Q1 盈利能力持续提升 2024 年，公司实现营收 238.62 亿元，同比+122.64%；实现归母净利润 51.71 亿 元，同比+137.93%；实现扣非归母净利润 50.68 亿元，同比+138.66%。全年毛利 率为 33.81%，同比+0.82pct。费用率持续优化，净利率 22.51%，同比+1.91pct。 2025 年第一季度，公司营收 66.74 亿元，同比+37.82%，环比+1.9%；实现归母净 利润 15.83 亿元（预告中值 15.5 亿元），同比+56.83%，环比+11.6%；扣非归母净 利润 15.68 亿元，同比+58.39%。业绩保持高速增长，符合市场预期。25Q1 公司 毛利率 36.7%，同比+3.94pct，环比+1.62pct，净利率为 25.33%，同比+4.11pct， 环比+2.42pct，盈利能力持续提升。 ❑ AI 需求驱动下游 Capex 保持高增长 AI 拉动算力需求，光通信网络是算力网 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 3.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 583 million yuan, up 29.89%, closely aligning with the forecast range [1] - The gross margin for the year was 58.13%, reflecting a steady increase due to cost optimization strategies [1] - The company expects a net profit of 135 million to 143 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.99% to 38.75% [1] Revenue Breakdown - The Resources and Public Utilities segment generated revenue of 1.425 billion yuan, up 26.41%, with a gross margin of 54.71% [2] - The Construction and Infrastructure segment reported revenue of 1.053 billion yuan, an increase of 8.97%, with a gross margin of 68.41% [2] - The Geospatial Information segment achieved revenue of 589 million yuan, a growth of 38.44%, with a gross margin of 53.1% [2] - The Robotics and Autonomous Driving segment had revenue of 185 million yuan, up 15.53%, with a gross margin of 41.95% [2] R&D and Global Expansion - The company invested 469 million yuan in R&D, accounting for 14.43% of revenue, focusing on high-precision positioning chips and autonomous driving products [4] - The overseas business revenue reached 938 million yuan, a growth of 30%, representing 28.8% of total revenue, indicating significant growth potential in international markets [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 760 million yuan, 970 million yuan, and 1.26 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a PE ratio of 29 times for 2025 [5]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 21 日 债券波动性知多少? 核心观点 随着债市进入高波动阶段，准确评估债券波动性有助于投资者增厚收益或控制估值风 险。本篇报告测算了各类券种与组合波动率，整体信用债＞国债，信用债内部二永债> 普信债>商金债，波动率与市场调整及后续修复期间债券价格涨跌幅呈正相关。 分组合来看，二级债拉久期/子弹型组合波动较大，城投债哑铃型组合相对稳健。债券 防守性与进攻性的评估结果与上述结论类似，普信债抗回撤能力较强但进攻性不足， 适用于调整期间防守；二永债进攻性较强，但容易在债市走熊时出现较大回撤。 ❑ 债市波动率初窥 2025 年受负 carry、基本面修复预期及权益走牛影响，高波动格局延续。横向看，信用债波动率 普遍高于利率债，其中流动性较好的银行二级债波动最显著，而商金债的持仓机构多为负债端 相对稳定的自营，因此估值最稳定。 ❑ 各类信用债波动率特征几何？ 1、分期限看，长短端债券波动率之间的差异与资金面有关，在资金利率波动较大的年份，短 久期券种波动率明显高于长久期券种，在资金利率相对稳定时长久期券种波动率反而高于 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6][18] Core Viewpoints - Songfa Co., Ltd. has successfully passed the restructuring approval, aiming to become the first publicly listed civil shipbuilding company in China [1] - The acquisition of Hengli Heavy Industry is expected to enhance the company's focus on shipbuilding and high-end equipment manufacturing [1][2] - Hengli Heavy Industry ranks 4th globally in new orders received in 2024, indicating strong order backlog and production capacity [3] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to ship replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, which are expected to improve profitability for shipyards [4][5] Summary by Sections Restructuring and Acquisition - Songfa Co., Ltd. plans to strategically exit the daily ceramic products manufacturing sector and fully acquire Hengli Heavy Industry, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary [1][2] - The restructuring involves significant asset swaps and issuance of shares to acquire the remaining 50% stake in Hengli Heavy Industry [2] Order and Production Capacity - Hengli Heavy Industry has a robust order backlog with 16.74 million DWT and 3.97 million CGT as of April 20, 2025, and new orders of 12.83 million DWT and 3.18 million CGT in 2024 [3] - The company has strong self-manufacturing capabilities for key components, particularly ship engines, which allows it to accept external orders starting from March 2024 [3] Industry Trends - The shipbuilding industry is currently experiencing high demand, with a notable increase in container ship orders, while other types of vessels are seeing a decline [4] - The new ship price index has shown a significant increase since 2021, currently at a historical peak, indicating a potential for continued price growth due to supply constraints and inflationary pressures [4][9] - The overall shipbuilding capacity is nearing saturation, but the number of active shipyards and delivery volumes have decreased, which may lead to sustained high prices for new ships [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the shipbuilding sector is poised for growth, with leading companies expected to benefit from high demand for large and high-end vessels [7] - Key recommended companies include China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, and Songfa Co., Ltd. [7]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：本周经济景气度继续回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 4 月 19 日）为 5.3%，较上周修订值 5.6%略有放 缓，或表征经济增长景气较上周有所回摆。我们认为，随着关税冲击，GDP 周频景气 指数或有回落风险，有待持续跟踪验证。 从生产法来看，工业、服务业景气整体涨跌互相。 从需求侧来看，消费、基建本周边际反弹；地产、出口有所承压。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际承压，系统性回升有待需求侧 ...

报告日期：2025 年 04 月 21 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 21 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 重要观点 重要点评 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/李沛】A 股策略周报：九连阳冲击区间上沿，逢低配、莫追高——20250419 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/高旗胜/赵闻恺】策略专题研究：先金融后成长，先大盘后中小盘——20250419 【浙商计算机 刘雯蜀/陶韫琦】计算机 行业点评："大模型+MCP+A2A"生态，打开多智能体协同生态成长空间 ——20250417 【浙商中小盘 钟凯锋/宋伟】德邦科技（688035）公司点评：集成电路与智能终端封装材料大幅增长，展现成长潜 力——20250419 浙商早报 1 重要观点 1.1 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/李沛】A 股策略周报：九连阳冲击区间上沿，逢低配、莫追高—— 20250419 1、所在领域 策略 2、核心观点 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for SANY Heavy Industry is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a 32% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, indicating improved profitability [1] - Total revenue for 2024 reached 78.4 billion, a 6% increase year-on-year, with operating cash flow net amounting to 14.8 billion, up 160% [1] - The company has a strong overseas revenue contribution, accounting for 64% of total revenue, with significant growth in various regions [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, SANY Heavy Industry achieved total revenue of 78.4 billion, a 6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.98 billion, up 32% [1] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 14.8 billion, reflecting a 160% increase [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 26.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved to 7.8%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points [1] Revenue Breakdown - Excavation machinery revenue grew by 10% year-on-year, reaching 30.4 billion, maintaining the top sales position in the domestic market for 14 consecutive years [2] - Concrete machinery revenue decreased by 6% to 14.4 billion, but it remains the global leader in the sector [2] - The company’s overseas revenue for 2024 was 48.5 billion, a 12% increase, with a gross margin of 30% [4] Market Outlook - The engineering machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with domestic market acceleration expected to benefit leading companies like SANY [5] - The company’s excavator revenue constitutes 39% of total revenue, positioning it well to capitalize on the industry's upward cycle [6] - SANY Heavy Industry participated in the Bauma exhibition, receiving nearly 3 billion in intended orders on the first day [6] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 90.2 billion, 108.2 billion, and 128.5 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 20%, and 19% respectively [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 8.5 billion, 11 billion, and 13.7 billion, with growth rates of 42%, 30%, and 24% respectively [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 19, 15, and 12 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 51% of Xuzhou Xugong Heavy Vehicles for 820 million RMB, aiming to become a global leader in open-pit mining machinery [1] - The acquisition will enhance the company's competitive advantage in mining machinery by integrating a complete range of products, providing a one-stop service for global mining customers [1] - The company has been ranked among the top five global manufacturers of open-pit mining equipment for six consecutive years, achieving a revenue of 5.9 billion RMB in 2023 with a CAGR of 44% from 2019 to 2023 [2] - The company has secured significant international contracts, including a nearly 800 million RMB contract for core mining equipment for the Simfer project in Guinea [2] - The company expects revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 909 billion, 1,047 billion, and 1,279 billion RMB, respectively [3] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company announced an acquisition of 51% of Xuzhou Xugong Heavy Vehicles for 820 million RMB, which will be consolidated into its financial statements [1][10] - The seller, Xugong Nanjing, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xugong Group, focusing on vehicle design, production, and sales [1] Performance Commitments - Xugong Nanjing has committed to a net profit of no less than 1.44 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.81 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, totaling at least 4.86 billion RMB [2][10] Market Position and Growth - The company ranked fourth among global open-pit mining equipment manufacturers in 2024, being the only Chinese company in the top five [2] - The mining machinery revenue accounted for 7.1% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, with a gross margin of 24% [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 909 billion, 1,047 billion, and 1,279 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -2%, 15%, and 22% [3] - The projected net profit for the same years is 62 billion, 78 billion, and 97 billion RMB, with growth rates of 16%, 26%, and 25% [3]

Group 1: EU ESG Policy Changes - The EU's temporary relaxation of sustainable regulations reflects a shift towards practical implementation, aiming to enhance economic competitiveness amid long-term concerns[1] - The Omnibus Package aims to reduce compliance pressure on companies by increasing the threshold for "large companies" from 250 to 1,000 employees and raising the revenue threshold from €150 million to €450 million, potentially excluding 80% of companies originally subject to CSRD[37] - The CSDDD will now focus only on direct suppliers, reducing due diligence requirements and limiting the scope of stakeholder engagement, which lowers compliance costs for companies[41] Group 2: Market Implications and Risks - The EU's ESG regulatory changes may foster closer cooperation between China and the EU in sustainable development, potentially reducing supply chain disputes[1] - There is a risk of the EU implementing green trade barriers or industry support policies that could impact Chinese renewable energy companies operating in Europe[2] - The market should remain vigilant regarding the potential for fluctuating market sentiments and the unpredictable implementation of ESG-related policies[3]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 资金面部分，未来一周，21-22 日进入税期走款，24 日开启资金跨月布局，25 日是 4 月 MLF 续作窗口，全周政府债净融资规模转负，关注央行临近跨月的操作，预计资 金面将保持均衡运行。 存单部分，未来一周，存单到期规模近 8000 亿，供给端压力增大，存单利率相较资金 利率利差已明显压缩，部分买盘有所止盈，存单收益率或震荡。 机构行为部分，未来一周关注：（1）LPR 操作、MLF 操作、4 月底政治局会议政策预 期以及特朗普发声可能对债券继续构成扰动，短期利率或继续窄幅震荡，等待线索更 加明晰后加剧波动的概率会放大；（2）近期短端利率受到资金价格和降准降息预期变 动后，相比长端性价比变弱，但是未来一周长端可能增加对于政策和基本面预期的定 价，长短端表现可能出现反向分化。 ❑ 流动性：资金面均衡运行有望持续 1、资金面部分：（1）超长特别国债发行计划公布，较市场预期有所提前，二季 度将进入政策集中发力期，央行净投放呵护税期资金面。（2）从资金的量、价观 察，大行融出规模稳中有降，各期限资金利率小幅上行，银行间流动性平稳，非 银融入规模边际下降，杠杆水平边 ...