证券研究报告 顺周期蓄势待发，红利热度回升 ——2025年二季度交通运输行业投资策略 摘要 1、综述：PMI重回扩张区间，内需延续弱修复趋势，上游商流延续双位数增长，十年国债微幅反弹 2、航空：油汇助攻，供需双击，淡季高客座率延续、票价有望同比转正 2 • 内需延续弱修复趋势，PMI重回扩张区间。2025年2月中国制造业PMI50.2，环比回正，站到荣枯线以上。PMI是航空需求 的前瞻性指标，PMI指数与国内航线旅客量同比增速变动趋势趋同，但一般PMI变动趋势较航空需求提前一个季度左右。 • 工业企业补库需求仍不明显，十年国债微幅反弹。2024年Q4规上工业企业产成品库存同比增速逐月回落，工业企业库存周 期过渡到主动去库阶段。受季节性因素影响，2025年2月中国制造业PMI中产成品库存指数环比上升1.8pct至48.3%。2025 年初十年国债收益率跌破1.6%，创下历史新低，此后出现微幅反弹，到3月10日反弹至1.8%以上。 添加标题 95% • 2025年以来交运板块跑输大盘，其中快递子行业表现相对较强。年初至今（3月11日，下同），沪深300累计涨跌幅为 +0.2%，交运板块累计涨跌幅-4.8%，在中信 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题研究 | 中国策略 消费板块大涨，继续切换业绩好估值低 ——中小盘周报 投资要点 q 本周推荐与建议关注 我们认为，或与 2013-2015 年类似，随着 AI 和人形机器人技术的发展与扩 散，中小市值公司在资本市场的表现或更加活跃。建议积极重视中小市值公 司的投资机会。两个选股思路：一是选择业绩较好的成长股；二是选择 AI、 人形机器人等相关概念标的。典型案例如信测标准，开拓"检测服务+AI+机 器人"新模式，受到市场关注并表现积极。如新莱福、海星股份、民士达、 海达尔等均具备业绩好和主题扩散潜力。建议重点关注标的： 个股：新莱福、隆利科技、海星股份、星华新材、天地数码、信测标准等； MiniLED 产业链：聚飞光电、隆利科技、芯瑞达、激智科技； 北交所：建邦科技、民士达、林泰新材、海达尔； q 新股专题 本周港股有 2 家公司上市，沪深有 2 家公司上市。 有多家处于询价或申购阶段，其中胜科纳米、浙江华远、开发科技、弘景光 电、首航新能、矽电股份、汉朔科技等新股建议关注 q 并购重组专题 本周中科通达、厦门港务、腾景科技等新增并购重组公告。 截至 2025-03-14，并购重组模 ...

证券研究报告 AI应用，御风而上 ——计算机行业2025二季度度策略 行业评级：看好 2025年03月12日 | 分析师 | 刘雯蜀 | 分析师 | 童非 | 分析师 | 郑毅 | 分析师 | 刘静一 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号 | s1230523020002 | 证书编号 | s1230524050005 | 证书编号 | s1230524070002 | 证书编号 | s1230523070005 | | 分析师 | 陶韫琦 | 分析师 | 叶光亮 | 研究助理 | 张致远 | | | | 证书编号 | s1230524090010 | 证书编号 | s1230524080010 | | | | | 核心观点 ◼ 2025Q1行情回顾 2 ➢ 2025年计算机行业涨幅为24.41%（截至3月11日），处于全行业第二，领涨TMT板块：计算机（24.41%）>传媒（13.70%）>电子 （12.58%）>通信（4.54%），应用端涨幅高于算力基础设施。 ➢ 截至3月07日，申万计算机行业PE(TTM)为83X，处于过去 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题研究 | 中国策略 为何深证红利指数近期表现更好？ ——策略专题报告 核心观点 截至 2025 年 3 月 14 日，A 股对标红利 ETF 的共 16 只红利指数中，深证红利指数开 年以来涨幅最高，共上涨 5.78%，相对涨幅最低的上证国企红利指数超额达到 5.83%。 从风格及行业构成来看，深证红利指数在消费风格占比较高，且在家电、食品饮料、 医药、电子、银行等行业占比较高；而涨幅靠后的如上证国企红利和红利低波指数在 金融和周期风格占比较高，行业则集中在银行、煤炭、交通运输、钢铁。 ❑ 深证红利指数为开年以来涨幅最高红利指数，相对涨幅最低红利指数超额 5.8% 截至 2025 年 3 月 14 日，在场内共 1110 只 ETF 基金中，红利 ETF 共 42 只，共 对标 23 个指数，其中对标港股指数 7 只，对标 A 股指数 16 只。尽管同是红利 指数，不同红利指数由于其成分股构成及权重不同，开年以来的涨幅也相差各 异，其中，深证红利指数 2025 年 2 月 4 日至今涨幅最高，共上涨 5.78%，相对 沪深 300 超额 0.81%，相对 Wind 全 A 超额-3. ...

证券研究报告 | 季度行业策略 | 汽车 关注 AI 具身应用-智驾和机器人的投资机会 ——汽车行业二季度策略 投资要点 汽车 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 14 日 行业评级: 看好(维持) 分析师：刘巍 执业证书号：S1230524040001 liuwei03@stocke.com.cn 分析师：郑景毅 执业证书号：S1230523060001 zhengjingyi@stocke.com.cn 研究助理：张逸辰 zhangyichen@stocke.com.cn http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ DeepSeek 横空出世，有望进一步降低车企推行智驾的算力和研发门槛、提升算 法效果。DeepSeek 通过独特的架构设计（混合专家架构 MoE）显著降低了内存 占用和计算开销。从 2 月开始多家车企宣布接入 DeepSeek，云端模型和座舱交 互方面有望深度受益。云端模型方面，DeepSeek 可以用在训练前生成数据、降 低标注成本；车端模型方面，DeepSeek 通过完善教师模型，蒸馏出学生模型， 从而降低算力要求，实现单颗 Orin ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 公用事业 公用事业 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 16 日 绿电直供凸显环境属性，清洁能源迎来专项资金 ——环保与公用事业行业周报 投资要点 ❑ 行情回顾 本周，公用事业板块指数上涨 2.19%，涨跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 11，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.61%；本周，环保板块指数上涨 2.53%，涨跌幅在 32 个 申万一级行业中排名第 9，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.94%。截至 2025 年 3 月 7 日，公 用事业（申万）PE（TTM）为 16.87 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍；环保（申万）PE （TTM）为 21.60 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍。 ❑ 行业重要动态 ❑ 核心观点与投资建议 ❑ 公用事业行业，本周重点关注个股组合：佛燃能源+东方电子+中国核电。 A.绿电运营板块。去年以来政策推动典型高耗能行业参与绿证绿电交易，绿电环 境价值有望进一步兑现；此外新能源全面入市有望带动电价下行，叠加电网发债 持续推进下绿电企业国补欠补问题有望改善。考虑到当前绿电估值已处价值洼地， 尤其是港股绿电普遍处于破净状态，后续可进一步关注新能源大基地 ...

Market Outlook - The "spring offensive" initiated on January 13, 2025, is expected to continue, targeting the upper range of the previous market fluctuations, with a potential decisive moment in May[4] - The GDP growth target remains around 5%, indicating a proactive and pragmatic macro policy approach[12] Style Rotation - Mid-cap value and growth stocks are leading in market capitalization style, indicating a concentration in mid-cap stocks[5] - The valuation style is expected to be balanced, with a shift towards value stocks as growth style advantages may weaken[5] Industry Focus - Key sectors to watch include food and beverage, pharmaceutical biology, real estate, and new energy, benefiting from policy guidance and significant calendar effects[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected international geopolitical tensions and domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations[7] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes a focus on mid-cap stocks and consumer sectors, with a balanced valuation approach[5][6]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 公用事业 本周，公用事业板块指数上涨 2.19%，涨跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 11，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.61%；本周，环保板块指数上涨 2.53%，涨跌幅在 32 个 申万一级行业中排名第 9，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.94%。截至 2025 年 3 月 7 日，公 用事业（申万）PE（TTM）为 16.87 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍；环保（申万）PE （TTM）为 21.60 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍。 ❑ 行业重要动态 ❑ 核心观点与投资建议 ❑ 公用事业行业，本周重点关注个股组合：佛燃能源+东方电子+中国核电。 绿电直供凸显环境属性，清洁能源迎来专项资金 ——环保与公用事业行业周报 投资要点 ❑ 行情回顾 A.绿电运营板块。去年以来政策推动典型高耗能行业参与绿证绿电交易，绿电环 境价值有望进一步兑现；此外新能源全面入市有望带动电价下行，叠加电网发债 持续推进下绿电企业国补欠补问题有望改善。考虑到当前绿电估值已处价值洼地， 尤其是港股绿电普遍处于破净状态，后续可进一步关注新能源大基地项目落地， 标的包括受益于福建海风竞配落地的中闽能源（ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $8.2 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $390 million, up 43% year-on-year. The manufacturing segment generated $5.6 billion in revenue, an 11% increase year-on-year, while the retail segment saw a revenue decline of 10% to $2.6 billion [1][5] - Manufacturing business orders are robust, with a significant increase in shipments and a narrowing decline in average selling price (ASP). The ASP for 2024 was $20.3, down 5% year-on-year, while shipments reached 260 million pairs, a 17% increase [2][5] - The retail business is showing signs of improvement, with a smaller revenue decline in Q4 and effective cost management strategies leading to stable profit margins. Online retail revenue grew by 16%, with Douyin sales doubling year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of $8.2 billion and a net profit of $390 million. The manufacturing segment contributed $5.6 billion, while the retail segment accounted for $2.6 billion [1][5] - In Q4 alone, the company reported a revenue of $2.1 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 52% to $70 million due to increased operational costs and tax disputes [1][3] Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment's revenue for 2024 was $5.6 billion, with a shipment volume of 260 million pairs, reflecting a 17% increase. The ASP remained stable at $20.3 [2][5] - The manufacturing gross margin was 19.9%, with a capacity utilization rate of 93%. However, Q4 gross margin was pressured due to increased overtime and outsourcing costs, alongside a tax dispute in Indonesia [3][5] Retail Business - The retail segment's revenue for 2024 was $2.6 billion, down 10% year-on-year, but the decline in Q4 was only 2%. The company managed to improve its gross margin to 34.2% through effective discount management [4][5] - The number of offline stores decreased to 3,448, with same-store sales down 17.1%. However, online sales showed resilience, particularly on platforms like Douyin [4][5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $8.4 billion, $9.0 billion, and $9.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $454 million, $498 million, and $529 million [5][12] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 6.0, 5.5, and 5.2, with a dividend payout ratio of 69% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 10% [5][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a strong annual performance for 2024, with total revenue of 10.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.15 billion, also up 19.5%. The cash dividend payout ratio increased to 45% [1][6] - The main brand, 361°, continues to lead the adult apparel segment with double-digit growth, driven primarily by volume increases. The footwear segment generated revenue of 4.29 billion, up 22.1%, while the apparel segment reached 3.09 billion, up 15.1% [2] - The children's apparel segment also showed strong growth, with revenue of 2.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The footwear category contributed 1.1 billion, up 17.5%, while the apparel category reached 1.21 billion, up 22.6% [3][4] - E-commerce sales remained active, totaling 2.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, accounting for 25.9% of total sales. The company ranked among the top five footwear brands during major sales events [5] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth of 13% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 11% in 2027, reaching 11.4 billion, 12.7 billion, and 14.2 billion respectively. Net profit is expected to grow by 14% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 12% in 2027, reaching 1.38 billion, 1.47 billion, and 1.65 billion respectively [6][12] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.9, 6.1, and 5.5 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for a leading player in the sportswear market [6][12]