2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 1 | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年3月16日） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 420 | | 1 4% . | 2 . | 0% | | | 沪深300 | | 4 , | 007 | | 1 6% . | 1 . | 8% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 319 | | 1 5% . | 10 . | 3% | | 块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , | 344 | | 0 8% . | 12 . | 4% | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's flexible OLED and automotive display segments are driving a recovery in operational performance, with significant improvements in profitability and revenue growth expected in the coming years [2][3][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 33.494 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.79%, and a notable reduction in net losses by 68.13% compared to the previous year [8][10] - The flexible OLED business is entering a phase of full-scale development, supported by a diversified customer base and improved production capabilities, leading to a significant increase in revenue contribution from mobile displays [2] - The automotive display segment is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected revenue increase of over 40% in 2024, and the company has secured record-high project values for automotive applications [3] - The IT business is also expanding, with an increase in market share for LTPS NB displays and successful delivery of new monitor products [4] Summary by Sections Mobile Segment - The mobile display business has optimized its structure, with a significant improvement in profitability driven by the flexible OLED segment, which now accounts for over 60% of mobile display revenue [2] Automotive Segment - The automotive display market is growing rapidly, with the company achieving the highest global shipment volumes in automotive displays and head-up displays, and entering large-scale deliveries in the automotive electronics sector [3] IT Segment - The IT business is focusing on high-end positioning, with LTPS LCD technology enhancing competitiveness and successful product launches, including a new 50" commercial display [4] Financial Performance - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 36 billion yuan in 2025 to 43.671 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits projected to turn positive by 2025 [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's flexible OLED and automotive display segments are driving a recovery in operational performance, with significant improvements in profitability and revenue growth expected in the coming years [2][3][8] Summary by Sections Mobile Segment - The mobile display business has seen a notable improvement in profitability, with the flexible OLED segment entering a phase of full-scale development. The company has diversified its customer base and improved production capacity, leading to a substantial increase in revenue and profitability [2] Automotive Segment - The automotive display market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company achieving over 40% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024. The company holds the global leading position in automotive display shipments and has entered the automotive electronics sector, which is now in mass production [3] IT Segment - The IT business has strengthened its competitive position with LTPS LCD technology, achieving an increase in global market share for LTPS NB display products. The company has successfully launched its first large-screen commercial display product and is entering mass production for its IT products [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 33.494 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders improved significantly, with a reduction in losses by 68.13% compared to the previous year [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company achieved better-than-expected performance in Q4, with a significant increase in net profit compared to the previous quarter [1] - The company is advancing in the wind, solar, and hydrogen sectors while maintaining a high level of profitability [1] - The engineering transmission business has expanded its layout, achieving growth in various traditional and new sectors [2] - The power supply sector is diversifying its product offerings, with promising prospects for data center power solutions [3] - The earnings forecast has been raised, with projected revenue growth for 2025-2027 [4] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 37.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.50%, and a net profit of 4.41 billion yuan, down 12.28% year-on-year [1][6] - For Q4 2024, total revenue reached 14.22 billion yuan, up 25.05% year-on-year and 52.88% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, an increase of 85.86% year-on-year and 90.04% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company expects revenues of 51.21 billion yuan, 62.89 billion yuan, and 75.50 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.2%, 22.8%, and 20.1% [4][6] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.10 billion yuan, 7.42 billion yuan, and 8.93 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 38.5%, 21.6%, and 20.4% [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the hotel industry, particularly for Junting Hotel, with a focus on differentiated product offerings and management strategies [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Junting Hotel is leveraging a "one store, one product" strategy to create a premium model, aiming for non-linear growth through various expansion methods including management contracts and franchising [4]. - The anticipated growth in the number of direct-operated and managed hotels is expected to drive revenue and profitability, with projections for revenue growth rates of 17.42%, 26.05%, and 30.42% from 2024 to 2026 [5]. - The insurance sector, particularly China Life Insurance, is noted for its strong performance, with expected revenue growth rates of 14%, 6%, and 8% from 2024 to 2026, driven by premium growth and cost optimization [6]. - Qingdao Bank is positioned for growth due to its focus on debt resolution and risk assessment improvements, with projected net profit growth from 2024 to 2026 [8]. Summary by Sections Junting Hotel - The company is expected to achieve a RevPAR decline of approximately 5% in 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years due to new brand launches and improved occupancy rates [5]. - Revenue projections for Junting Hotel are set at 627 million, 790 million, and 1,031 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit forecasts of 29 million, 65 million, and 144 million yuan [5]. China Life Insurance - The company is projected to have revenues of 630,610 million, 666,554 million, and 723,096 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits expected to be 42,874 million, 43,833 million, and 52,140 million yuan [6]. Qingdao Bank - The bank's net profit is forecasted to reach 4,264 million, 4,707 million, and 5,241 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, supported by improved credit growth and risk management [8]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report anticipates a performance turning point for the traditional Chinese medicine sector in Q2 2025, with strong brands expected to outperform due to limited impact from centralized procurement [9]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates a bullish outlook for copper prices, driven by macroeconomic policies and strong fundamentals, with expectations for price increases in Q2 [10].

证券研究报告 | 季度行业策略报告 | 纺织服饰 内需看信心提振，出口待估值修复 ——纺织服装行业二季度策略 投资要点 ❑ 品牌服装：开年零售表现稳健，政策促进信心提振 开年以来零售同比表现预计较为稳健。从社零数据来看，服装鞋帽针纺织 品零售额 24 年 10 月单月+8.0%，11 月单月-4.5%，12 月单月-0.3%， 1-9 月累 计+0.2%，1-12 月累计+0.3%，总体来看 Q4 景气度略好于 Q3，主要来自 9 月末 消费促进政策推动客流环比改善，另有部分品类如家纺、童装、内衣直接获得补 贴，促进消费者信心提振，在此趋势下，我们预计 25 年 1-2 月大部分品牌服饰 龙头终端零售表现稳健。 注：以上 PE 中市值取 2025/3/14 收盘值 ❑ 风险提示：1）品牌服装类公司：消费力复苏不及预期，天气影响消费动力；2） 纺织制造类公司：贸易摩擦带来出口需求下滑，大宗商品价格波动带来的原材料 成本波动，汇率意外波动。 ❑ 纺织制造：基数走高，但多数龙头订单成长稳健 25H1 制造订单基数较高，但龙头仍保持正向订单增长，大多数制造商需求 展望仍较为稳健。23Q4 开始海外品牌商陆续进入补库阶 ...

- The quant model used to estimate the activity level of speculative funds showed a decline in activity starting from March 7, indicating a shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks[11] - The GDPNOW model predicted a GDP growth rate of 4.1% for Q1 2025, showing stable marginal changes in macroeconomic forecasts[15] - The informed trader activity index indicated a cautious optimism among informed traders, with the index rising above zero[17] Model Backtesting Results - Speculative funds activity model, IR: 0.5, Sharpe ratio: 1.2, annualized return: 15%[11] - GDPNOW model, predicted GDP growth rate: 4.1%[15] - Informed trader activity index, current value: 0.0025[19] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: EP Value; Construction Idea: Preference for high EP value and high dividend yield assets; Construction Process: Calculated using the formula $ EP = \frac{Earnings}{Price} $; Evaluation: Showed positive returns in the current week[27] - Factor Name: Momentum; Construction Idea: Short-term momentum stocks; Construction Process: Calculated using past price performance; Evaluation: Experienced a pullback in the current week[27] Factor Backtesting Results - EP Value factor, weekly return: 0.5%, monthly return: 1.2%, quarterly return: 3.5%[27] - Momentum factor, weekly return: -0.8%, monthly return: 0.9%, quarterly return: 2.1%[27]

证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 股份制银行Ⅱ 中信银行(601998) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 16 日 中长期资金助力价值发现 ——瑞众人寿举牌中信银行点评 投资要点 ❑ 基本面：盈利差距收窄 中信银行当前盈利能力领先股份行平均，但较头部银行招行仍有差距。展望未 来，中信银行和头部银行的盈利能力差距有望收窄，驱动估值差距收窄。中信 银行 24Q1-3 ROE 10.14%，优于其他股份行平均的 9.95%，但较头部股份行招行 的 15.38%仍有差距。分部拆解后，中信银行盈利能力劣势主要来自零售业务， 而在对公领域有较大优势。展望未来，中信较招行的盈利能力差距有望收窄，主 要归因零售、对公业务的盈利能力差行业性收窄、中信银行加杠杆能力打开。 （1）零售和对公的盈利差距将收窄：①零售业务：投放利率下行+减值压力上 行，零售综合盈利能力下降。②对公业务：行业"反内卷"带来利差水平企稳、 减值压力保持平稳，对公综合盈利能力平稳。我们测算当前新发放按揭贷款的经 济利润约在 53bp，而新发放 10 年期企业贷款的经济利润约在 78~114bp。中信银 行对公业务能力突出（24H1 中信银行对公分部税前 R ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is currently experiencing a favorable performance, reinforcing the view that "steady growth is better than extreme fluctuations." The focus should be on leading companies in the industry [1][4]. - In the medium to long term, the report emphasizes the importance of strong brand power, early inventory clearance, and reasonable growth targets for leading liquor companies, particularly in the baijiu segment. It also highlights the high prosperity and cost cycle as key themes for consumer goods, alongside potential investment opportunities arising from retail transformations in 2025 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Sector - The baijiu sector is currently in a "high-low cut" phase, with ongoing recommendations for companies that have strong fundamentals, high certainty in Q1 performance, and relatively low valuations. The report anticipates a structural bull market for baijiu driven by policy catalysts and improving real estate data [3][4][12]. - Key recommendations include high-end brands like Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai, as well as mid-range and regional brands such as Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu [12]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is advised to focus on high prosperity and cost cycles, with leading companies prioritized. Recommended stocks include Qingdao Beer, Yili, and Eastroc Beverage, among others [2][18]. - The report notes significant price increases in frozen foods (+8.18%), other alcoholic beverages (+8.04%), and dairy products (+7.35%) during the recent trading period [2][23]. Market Performance - From March 7 to March 14, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.59%, with notable increases in the baijiu sector, which saw an overall rise of 6.67% [3][23]. - Specific baijiu brands such as Zhenjiu Lidu (+14.71%) and Jiugui Liquor (+10.48%) led the gains, while the consumer goods sector also showed strong performance with companies like Panda Dairy (+18.72%) and Pinwa Foods (+16.21%) [2][23][27]. Price Trends - The report tracks stable pricing for key baijiu products, with the average price for Feitian Moutai at approximately 2,215 yuan and Wuliangye at around 950 yuan [11][41]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights ongoing policy support aimed at boosting consumption, including the issuance of consumption vouchers and subsidies for child-rearing, which are expected to positively impact the food and beverage sector [6][14].

证券研究报告 顺周期蓄势待发，红利热度回升 ——2025年二季度交通运输行业投资策略 摘要 1、综述：PMI重回扩张区间，内需延续弱修复趋势，上游商流延续双位数增长，十年国债微幅反弹 2、航空：油汇助攻，供需双击，淡季高客座率延续、票价有望同比转正 2 • 内需延续弱修复趋势，PMI重回扩张区间。2025年2月中国制造业PMI50.2，环比回正，站到荣枯线以上。PMI是航空需求 的前瞻性指标，PMI指数与国内航线旅客量同比增速变动趋势趋同，但一般PMI变动趋势较航空需求提前一个季度左右。 • 工业企业补库需求仍不明显，十年国债微幅反弹。2024年Q4规上工业企业产成品库存同比增速逐月回落，工业企业库存周 期过渡到主动去库阶段。受季节性因素影响，2025年2月中国制造业PMI中产成品库存指数环比上升1.8pct至48.3%。2025 年初十年国债收益率跌破1.6%，创下历史新低，此后出现微幅反弹，到3月10日反弹至1.8%以上。 添加标题 95% • 2025年以来交运板块跑输大盘，其中快递子行业表现相对较强。年初至今（3月11日，下同），沪深300累计涨跌幅为 +0.2%，交运板块累计涨跌幅-4.8%，在中信 ...