| [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | 谢盐(分析师) | 021-23185696 | xieyan@gtht.com | S0880525040098 | 本报告导读： 1 月 27 日，公司审议通过了《关于开展商业不动产 REITs 申报发行工作及相关授权 事项的议案》，这将进一步构筑公司不动产经营能力，增强可持续发展能力。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级。1 月 27 日，公司审议通过了《关于开展商业不 动产 REITs 申报发行工作及相关授权事项的议案》。我们认为，这 将进一步构筑公司不动产经营能力，优化资本结构，增强可持续发 展能力。我们预计 25 年 EPS 为 0.09 元和 BPS 为 16.59 元，参考 PB 估 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 厦钨新能（688778.SH） 优于大市 业绩快速增长，固态电池材料布局持续推进 公司 2025 年预计实现归母净利润 7.55 亿元，同比+42%。公司 2025 年预计 实现营收 200.34 亿元，同比+48%；实现归母净利润 7.55 亿元，同比+42%； 实现扣非归母净利润 7.05 亿元，同比+58%。公司 2025Q4 预计实现营收 69.75 亿元、环比+26%，实现归母净利润 2.03 亿元、环比-17%，实现扣非归母净 利润 1.99 亿元、环比-7%。公司公告 2025 年计提存货跌价损失 1.17 亿元， 其中 Q4 计提 1.19 亿元；计提信用减值损失 0.88 亿元，其中 Q4 计提 0.39 亿元。 公司钴酸锂全球领先地位稳固，盈利能力稳中向好。2025 年公司紧抓国家换 机补贴政策机遇，并顺应 3C 消费设备 AI 化带来的电池电量升级趋势，钴酸 锂销量及份额快速提升。公司 2025 年钴酸锂销量 6.53 万吨，同比+41%；其 中 Q4 销量约为 1.84 万吨，环比+2%，Q4 单吨净利估计超 1 万元、环比稳中 向好。根据鑫椤 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded market expectations, with a projected net profit of 350 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.93% [8] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the high demand in the downstream power and energy storage sectors, with a notable increase in overseas orders and revenue [8] - The company is positioned as a leader in module/pack equipment and structural components, which are expected to benefit from the transition to solid-state batteries [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,448 million yuan in 2023 to 4,370 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.86% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 39.95 million yuan in 2023 to 521.29 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.32 yuan in 2023 to 4.12 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, with a market price of RMB 21.27 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in domestic general aviation transportation, expected to benefit from the recovery in global oil and gas exploration investments and domestic low-altitude economic policies. The improvement in operational efficiency and fleet structure is anticipated to enhance profitability [4][19]. - The company's traditional strength in offshore oil helicopter services is expected to maintain steady growth, providing a solid foundation for performance. Additionally, the exploration of low-altitude economic-related businesses may open new growth opportunities for the company's future [4][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 2.351 billion, RMB 2.554 billion, and RMB 2.736 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 8.6%, and 7.2% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 352 million, RMB 382 million, and RMB 413 million, with growth rates of 16.1%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively. The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is RMB 0.45, RMB 0.49, and RMB 0.53, corresponding to P/E ratios of 45.1, 41.5, and 38.4 times [6][8]. Business Overview - The company operates Asia's largest civil helicopter fleet, with a total of 84 advanced helicopters and a strong operational capability. Its main business areas include offshore oil, emergency rescue, land aviation, aviation maintenance, and low-altitude economy [19][25]. - The offshore oil helicopter service remains the core revenue source, contributing approximately 67.1% of total sales, with the largest client being China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [29][36]. Market Position - The company has a dominant position in the offshore oil service market, with a market share exceeding 60%. The strategic cooperation with CNOOC has been reinforced, ensuring a stable revenue stream and operational efficiency [29][39]. - The low-altitude economy is seen as a new growth area, with the company actively participating in industry standard-setting and exploring partnerships for eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft operations [26][32]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with total revenue increasing from RMB 15.67 billion in 2019 to RMB 21.63 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.83% [43][44]. - The net profit for 2024 reached RMB 3.03 billion, a 26.81% increase compared to the previous year, marking the best performance since the company went public [43][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [1][7] Core Insights - The company is experiencing accelerated growth through the release of new products in various sectors, including automotive laser radar and intelligent robotics. Notable products include the dToF laser radar chips and the SAC8905 chip for L2 level assisted driving [5] - The company has invested in Yuan Chuan Micro to develop high-performance AI inference chips, aiming to meet the increasing demand for high computing power in robotics and automotive applications [6] Financial Projections - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 29.5 billion, 40.3 billion, and 55.3 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 3.0 billion, 5.0 billion, and 8.0 billion yuan [7] - The company’s revenue growth rates are expected to be 25.2% in 2025, 36.7% in 2026, and 37.3% in 2027 [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.72 yuan in 2025 to 1.90 yuan in 2027 [11] Financial Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is 298 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 4.22 billion shares [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 116.41 in 2024 to 37.15 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [11] - The company maintains a debt-to-asset ratio of 31.0%, which is expected to rise to 49.0% by 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit significantly from a recent agreement between Corning and Meta, which involves a $6 billion procurement of optical communication-related orders by 2030. As a major supplier of MPO connectors to Corning, the company is poised to see substantial revenue growth from this partnership [7]. - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the first three quarters, with a revenue of RMB 1.214 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.6%, and a net profit of RMB 260 million, up 78.6% year-over-year. However, Q3 revenue faced pressure due to capacity constraints, with a quarterly revenue of RMB 390 million, down 5% year-over-year [7]. - The demand for MPO connectors is expected to surge due to the growth of AI and data centers, with the company positioned as a global leader in the MPO industry. The anticipated increase in shipments will drive significant revenue growth in the coming years [7]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of RMB 155 million in 2023, with projections of RMB 261 million in 2024, RMB 477 million in 2025, RMB 820 million in 2026, and RMB 1.37 billion in 2027, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 68.46%, 82.58%, 71.99%, and 66.96% respectively [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from RMB 0.69 in 2023 to RMB 6.03 in 2027, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 66.67%, 82.62%, 71.99%, and 66.96% [9]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 164 in 2023 to 19 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive production capability across the entire supply chain, including materials, equipment, and products, which enhances its competitive edge [7]. - A new production facility in Vietnam is set to ramp up capacity, expected to begin contributing to revenue in 2026, which will help meet the growing demand for optical connectors driven by AI and data center expansions [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit significantly from a recent agreement between Corning and Meta, which involves a $6 billion procurement of optical communication-related orders by 2030. As a major supplier of MPO connectors to Corning, the company is poised to see substantial revenue growth from this partnership [7]. - The company has shown strong performance in the first three quarters, with a revenue of RMB 1.214 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.6%, and a net profit of RMB 260 million, up 78.6% year-over-year. However, Q3 revenue faced pressure due to capacity constraints, with a quarterly revenue of RMB 390 million, down 5% year-over-year [7]. - The demand for MPO connectors is expected to surge due to the growth of AI and data centers, with the company positioned as a global leader in the MPO market. The anticipated increase in shipments will drive significant revenue growth in the coming years [7]. - The company has a complete production capacity across the supply chain and is expanding its operations in Vietnam, which is expected to enhance production capabilities and meet the rising demand for optical connectors [7]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to reach RMB 477 million, RMB 820 million, and RMB 1.37 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 83%, 72%, and 67% [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 2.10, RMB 3.61, and RMB 6.03 for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 54, 31, and 19 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][20]. Core Insights - The company is expected to have a capital expenditure of approximately RMB 8.44 billion by 2026, focusing on equipment investment, technology upgrades, R&D, and base construction, indicating a positive development trajectory [2][18]. - The Brent crude oil price is projected to fluctuate between USD 55-65 per barrel by 2026, influenced by geopolitical tensions and the high costs of new shale oil wells in the U.S. [3][8]. - The company is increasing its investment in equipment construction and technology R&D, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [3][19]. - As a leading player in the oil service industry, the company is optimizing its business structure, with an anticipated gradual increase in gross profit margins and net profits projected at RMB 40.98 billion, RMB 42.74 billion, and RMB 45.6 billion for 2025-2027 [3][20]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has made significant progress since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a comprehensive development outlook [2]. Market Conditions - The international oil price is expected to rise slightly due to geopolitical factors, with the U.S. shale oil production facing high operational costs [3][8]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 40.98 billion, RMB 42.74 billion, and RMB 45.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with earnings per share projected at RMB 0.86, RMB 0.90, and RMB 0.96 [3][20]. Investment Strategy - The company is committed to enhancing its operational efficiency through lean cost management and continuous investment in technology, which is expected to yield positive results in the coming years [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in distributed inverters and is expected to benefit significantly from subsidies in Australia and the UK, with a strong market presence and capabilities in these regions [1][6]. - The company has faced temporary operational pressure due to the impact of European household storage depletion since the second half of 2023, but improvements are anticipated starting Q3 2025 due to Australian household storage subsidies [1][6]. - The Australian government has tripled its budget for the "Cheaper Home Batteries" subsidy, which is expected to significantly boost the company's operations, as it holds a 30% market share in Australia [6][36]. - The UK government has launched a £15 billion "Warm Home Plan," which aims to upgrade homes with solar, storage, and heat pump installations, providing substantial opportunities for the company [6][37]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7,353 million RMB in 2023 to 12,760 million RMB in 2027, with a peak growth rate of 56% in 2023 followed by a decline of 8% in 2024 [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 852 million RMB in 2023 to 1,353 million RMB in 2027, with a significant increase of 420% in 2025 [2]. - The company's PE ratio is projected to improve from -363.6 in 2024 to 16.6 in 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [2]. Company Overview - Founded in 2010, the company specializes in photovoltaic inverters, energy storage inverters, storage batteries, and household systems, focusing on renewable energy solutions [10]. - The company has established a global marketing system and has sold products to over 100 countries, achieving a top ten ranking in global inverter brands [10][12]. Global Layout and Market Performance - The company has a well-established global presence, with subsidiaries in key markets such as Australia, Germany, and the UK, enhancing its marketing and service capabilities [27][33]. - It has achieved a market share of 50% in the Czech Republic and 30% in both Australia and the Netherlands for household storage systems [33]. Product Matrix - The company offers a comprehensive product range that meets the needs of residential, commercial, and large-scale power plants, including string inverters and energy storage solutions [34]. - The product offerings include photovoltaic grid-connected inverters, energy storage inverters, and household systems, supported by strong R&D capabilities [18][34].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 青岛银行(002948) | | | | | | [Table_Author] 张晓辉 银行业分析师 ➢ 规模扩张势头强劲，存贷业务同步发力。截至 2025 年末，青岛银行资 产总额突破 8000 亿元大关，达 8149.60 亿元，同比增幅高达 18.12%， 在同业"慢扩表"趋势下实现逆势高增。贷款端，客户贷款总额达 3970.08 亿元，同比增长 16.53%，信贷投放聚焦本土实体经济，紧扣科技金融、 绿色金融等特色赛道，投放力度持续加大；存款端，客户存款总额达 5028.99 亿元，同比增长 16.41%，存贷规模协同增长，资金端根基愈 发稳固，为业务发展提供坚实支撑。 ➢ 盈利表现亮眼，效率持续提升。2025 年，青岛银行实现营业收入 145.73 亿元，同比增长 7.97%；归母净利润 51.88 亿元，同比增长 21.66%， 盈利弹性凸显。公司积极应对资产收益率下行等经营挑战，扩规模、调 结构、降成本，同时，加权平均净资产收益率回升至 12.68%，同比提 高 1.17 个百分 ...