2025 年 3 月 20 日 | 朱吉翔 | | | --- | --- | | H70138@capital.com.tw | | | 目标价(港币) | 65.0 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | | | | 电子 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/03/20) | | | | | 56.50 | | 恒生指数(2025/03/20) | | | 24,220.0 | | | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | | 58.2/13.08 | | | | 总发行股数(百万) | | | 25,111.69 | | | | H 股数(百万) | | | 20,595.40 | | | | H 市值(亿元) | | | 5,127.34 | | | | | | | ARK Trust (Hong | | | | 主要股东 | | | | | Kong) | | | | Limited(25.02% | | | | | | | | | | ) | | 每股净值(元) | | | | | 7.52 | | 股价/账面净值 | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 583, indicating a potential upside of 8.0% from the current price of HKD 540 [1][4][50]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI applications are expected to rapidly integrate into Tencent's ecosystem, contributing to revenue growth. The anticipated revenue for 2025 is projected to reach RMB 713.8 billion, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth [2][8]. - The report emphasizes strong performance in various segments, including a 20% increase in gaming revenue and a 60%+ growth in video advertising revenue, driven by AI enhancements [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: RMB 609,015 million - 2024: RMB 660,257 million - 2025E: RMB 713,818 million - 2026E: RMB 767,880 million - 2027E: RMB 818,920 million - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline gradually from 9.8% in 2023 to 6.6% in 2027 [3][52]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 157,688 million - 2024: RMB 222,703 million - 2025E: RMB 244,774 million - 2026E: RMB 268,648 million - 2027E: RMB 289,453 million - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS), from RMB 16.33 in 2023 to RMB 31.91 in 2027 [3][52]. Segment Performance - The report details segment performance for Q4 2024: - Total revenue reached RMB 172,446 million, up 11% year-on-year - Online gaming revenue increased by 23% year-on-year, with local games contributing significantly - Marketing services revenue grew by 17%, driven by video and search advertising [8][9]. - The report notes that the gross margin improved to 53% due to the growth of high-margin businesses [7][8]. Valuation - The report estimates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times for 2025, with a projected share buyback of HKD 80 billion and dividends of HKD 41 billion, enhancing shareholder returns [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.34 based on a 12x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026, introducing a new forecast for 2027, with expected earnings per share of RMB 0.49, 0.56, and 0.63 for 2025-2027 respectively [4][5]. - The main brand is focusing on increasing Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) investments to enhance customer interaction and brand loyalty [7][8]. - The professional sports segment, particularly the Saucony brand, has shown significant revenue growth and improved profitability, indicating the effectiveness of the DTC strategy [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 14,346 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 13,577 million, RMB 14,452 million, RMB 15,795 million, and RMB 17,244 million respectively, with growth rates of -5.4%, 6.4%, 9.3%, and 9.2% [4][8]. - The operating profit for 2023 was RMB 1,580 million, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. The expected operating profits for the following years are RMB 1,966 million, RMB 1,980 million, RMB 2,309 million, and RMB 2,593 million, reflecting growth rates of 24.4%, 0.7%, 16.6%, and 12.3% [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was RMB 1,030 million, with a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. The forecasts for the next four years are RMB 1,238 million, RMB 1,369 million, RMB 1,558 million, and RMB 1,745 million, with growth rates of 20.2%, 10.6%, 13.8%, and 12.0% [4][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42.2% in 2023 to 45.0% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 7.2% to 10.1% over the same period [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Anta Sports [3][40]. Core Views - Anta Sports is expected to achieve a core net profit growth of 16.5% in 2024, with a revenue increase of 13.6% to 70.83 billion RMB, excluding non-cash profits from Amer Sports [1][7]. - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in the Chinese sports consumption market, with management projecting high single-digit growth for the Anta brand and over 30% growth for other brands in 2025 [2][39]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In 2024, Anta's revenue is projected to reach 70.83 billion RMB, with a core net profit of 11.93 billion RMB, reflecting a 16.5% increase [1][4]. - **Brand Performance**: Revenue from Anta, FILA, and other brands is expected to be 33.5 billion RMB, 26.6 billion RMB, and 10.7 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 10.6%, 6.1%, and 53.7% [2][7]. - **Profit Margins**: The overall gross margin is projected to be 62.2%, with a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year, while the operating profit margin is expected to decrease by 1.2 percentage points to 23.4% [8][29]. Brand-Specific Insights - **Anta Brand**: Revenue is expected to grow by 10.6% to 33.5 billion RMB, with a focus on e-commerce and new retail formats [18][19]. - **FILA Brand**: Revenue growth of 6.1% is anticipated, driven by professional sports series and e-commerce channels, despite a decline in profit margins [22][23]. - **Other Brands**: Significant growth of 53.7% is expected, with Descente and Kolon achieving strong performance [24][26]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The company maintains a robust cash flow with a net cash position of 31.4 billion RMB and a dividend payout ratio of 51.4% [15][39]. - Operating cash inflow is projected at approximately 16.74 billion RMB, indicating a healthy net cash ratio [15][39]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 13.48 billion RMB, 15.46 billion RMB, and 17 billion RMB respectively, with a corresponding growth rate of 13.0%, 14.7%, and 10.0% [3][39]. - The reasonable valuation is adjusted to 113-118 HKD, reflecting an increase from the previous estimate of 103-112 HKD [3][39].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 消费 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 97.90 | 港元 | 113.30↑ | +15.7% | | | 安踏 (2020 HK) | | | | | | | 2024 年业绩符合预期；2025 年指引营收高个位数至双位数增长 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2020 HK 恒生指数 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 62,356 | 70,826 | 77,163 | 84,476 | 90,862 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.2 | 13.6 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 7.6 | | 净 ...

个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 540.00 | 港元 | 583.00↑ | +8.0% | | | 腾讯控股 (700 HK) | | | | | | | AI+应用或在腾讯生态最快落地，上调目标价 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 6.6 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 157,688 | 222,703 | 244,774 | 268,648 | 289,453 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 16.33 | 23. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.12 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 16% year-on-year growth, but reported a net loss of 210 million yuan primarily due to goodwill impairment of 1.1 billion yuan [1][7] - Adjusted net profit, excluding goodwill impairment, was 1.14 billion yuan, showing a 1% increase year-on-year [1][7] - The online reading business stabilized with a revenue of 4.03 billion yuan in 2024, a 2% increase, marking a recovery from previous declines [7] - The company is focusing on high-quality content production, which may extend the development cycle of new projects and increase overall production costs, leading to a forecasted decline in profits in the coming years [7] - The derivative products and other copyright operations are progressing positively, with a 36% year-on-year revenue growth in self-owned copyright operations, excluding the impact of goodwill impairment [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecast for 2024 is 8.12 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 1% in 2025 and 5% in 2026 and 2027 [3][8] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 1.28 billion yuan in 2025, with a 12% year-on-year growth, and 1.42 billion yuan in 2026, with an 11% growth [3][8] - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.25 yuan in 2025 and 1.38 yuan in 2026 [3][8] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to decrease from 23 in 2024 to 21 in 2025 and further to 19 in 2026 [3][8]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 安踏（2020.HK）：利润率短期扩张可能受 限，但多品牌战略将持续驱动规模扩张 展望 2025 年，尽管安踏的利润率可能继续面临较大的压力，但主力品 牌的收入规模有望稳步扩张，其他品牌的流水将维持高速增长，同时 Amer Sports 的收入贡献将大幅提升，助力公司 2025 年核心净利润维 持较高的增长。长期来看，多品牌战略有望持续驱动公司整体收入规 模的扩张。上调目标价至 118.8 港元，并维持"买入"评级。 林闻嘉 首席消费分析师 richard_lin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6433 桑若楠，CFA 消费分析师 serena_sang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6439 2025 年 3 月 20 日 2020.HK ） SPDBI目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 股价表现 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 扫码关注浦银国际研究 HKD 90.0 HKD 138.0 HKD 97.9 HKD 118.8 -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 60 70 80 90 100 1 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 重申小米的"买入"评级：在 2024 年四季度，小米的收入、经调整 后净利润、经调整后核心业务净利润分别录得人民币 1,090 亿、83 亿、 90 亿元，均取得历史新高，增长强劲。这两年的经营表现充分体现 其公司战略方向和管理层执行力。小米人车家生态闭环，给予公司长 期增长空间。手机、新能源车、IoT 等业务板块均有望取得中国和全 球领先的位置。这将带来公司收入规模的增长和潜在利润的加速释放。 作为行业首推之一，当前小米市盈率为 42.1x，考虑其新能源车增长、 AI 战略定位和多业务板块龙头估值溢价，估值仍然具备上升空间。我 们对于小米长期的价值增长保持较为乐观的判断。 小米集团（1810.HK）：四季度业绩创 历史新高，看好公司长期价值成长 小米 2025 年展望：1）智能手机：我们预期今年出货量有望达 1.8 亿 部以上。受益于上游成本下行、高端化战略、中国国补等，手机毛利 率有改善空间。2）IoT：大家电板块及境外业务拓展将推动该业务板 块收入增长超 20%。3）互联网：得益于用户基数持续增长及结构改 善，互联网业务将保持收入稳定增长及高毛利率水位。4）智能电动 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 腾讯（700.HK）：借 AI 东风，腾讯能否 重回 700？ 业绩超预期，宣布派发股息及回购：公司 4Q24 收入人民币 1,725 亿 元，同比增长 11%，高于市场预期 2.3%；毛利率 52.6%，同比提升 3 个 百分点，各分部毛利率同比均有改善；调整后净利润为 553 亿元，同 比增长 30%，高于市场预期；调整后净利率 32.1%，4Q23 为 27.5%， 3Q24 为 35.8%。公司宣布派发每股股息 4.5 港元，在 2025 年至少回购 800 亿港元股份，两者约合 2.4%的股东回报。 本土游戏表现亮眼，预计 1Q25 保持强劲势头：4Q24 本土游戏收入同 比增长 23%至 332 亿元，增长强劲，好于我们预期，主要得益于去年 低基数以及旗舰游戏的健康表现。根据 Sensor Tower 数据监测，《王者 荣耀》在今年一季度目前表现依然亮眼，1 月和 2 月成为该游戏自 2021 年以来收入最高的两个月。国际游戏收入同比增长 15%至 160 亿元， 主要受《PUBG MOBILE》《荒野乱斗》等游戏推动。低基数效应在上半 年仍将持续，且递延收 ...