交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 9 月 8 日 01519.HK 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:港币 9.84 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 67.9 (4.4) 45.3 55.2 相对恒生指数 38.4 (6.4) 39.0 9.5 发行股数 (百万) 8,977.62 (20%) 1% 22% 44% 65% 86% Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 极兔速递-W 恒生指数 | 流通股 (百万) | 8,006.23 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (港币 百万) | 88,339.76 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (港币 百万) | 399.29 | | 主要股东 | | | Jumping Summit Limited | 10.92% | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 9 月 5 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《极兔速递-W》202507 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][35] Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year sales growth of 242% in Q2 2025, with total revenue reaching 18.3 billion yuan, a 125% increase compared to the same period last year [1][7][3] - The launch of new models such as the G7 and the new P7, equipped with advanced technologies like the Turing chip, is expected to drive sales further [3][31][27] - The company maintains its profit forecast, projecting revenues of 88.5 billion yuan, 118.1 billion yuan, and 130.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while expecting net losses to decrease over the same period [4][35] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a net loss of 4.8 billion yuan, an improvement from a loss of 12.9 billion yuan in the same quarter last year [1][7] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 17.3%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percentage points, while the net margin improved to -2.6% [2][9] - The company’s R&D expense ratio decreased to 12.1%, down 6.0 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved cost efficiency [2][9] Sales and Delivery - The company sold 103,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, marking a 241.6% increase year-on-year and a 9.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [3][16] - For July and August 2025, the company delivered 36,700 and 37,700 vehicles respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 229% and 169% [3][16] - The company expects Q3 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 113,000 and 118,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 143% to 154% [3][16] Model Launches and Innovations - The G7 model was officially launched on July 3, 2025, featuring advanced AI capabilities and a high-performance Turing chip [3][31] - The new P7 model was launched on August 27, 2025, also equipped with three self-developed Turing AI chips, enhancing its intelligent driving capabilities [31][27] - The company has expanded its strategic cooperation with Volkswagen Group to enhance its electronic and electrical architecture technology [27][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 129.77 HKD, based on a reasonable valuation of 793 billion HKD [2][11]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was slightly below expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 11.7%, while adjusted net profit significantly underperformed expectations due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector and increased subsidy expenditures, impacting performance by approximately 10 billion [9]. - The report anticipates that the competitive landscape will remain challenging in Q3, with expectations of a shift from positive to negative core local business profits due to increased subsidy efforts [9]. - New business segments showed better-than-expected revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 22.8% to 26.5 billion CNY, although losses are expected to widen [9]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials for 2025 include: - Revenue: 368,284 million CNY, a 9.09% increase year-on-year - Operating profit: -9,746 million CNY - Net profit attributable to the parent company: -9,523 million CNY - Earnings per share: -1.56 CNY [3][10]. - The gross margin is expected to be 32.27%, with a net margin of -2.59% for 2025 [3][10]. Valuation Breakdown - The valuation is based on a segment analysis: - Food delivery and flash purchase business is expected to generate a tax-adjusted operating profit of 6.4 billion CNY in 2026, with a corresponding market value of 218.5 billion HKD [12][13]. - The hotel and travel business is projected to achieve a tax-adjusted operating profit of 23.7 billion CNY in 2026, leading to a market value of 440.9 billion HKD [12][13]. - New business segments are expected to generate revenue of 121.7 billion CNY in 2026, with a market value of 133.6 billion HKD [12][13].

研究报告 Research Report 8 Sep 2025 映恩生物 Duality Biologics (9606 HK) "ADC+IO"战略稳步推进，早期分子有望展露潜力 The "ADC+IO" strategy is progressing steadily, and early-stage molecules are expected to demonstrate their potential [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$402.80 目标价 HK$464.20 HTI ESG 4.8-4.8-4.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$35.46bn / US$4.55bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$10.54mn 发行股票数目 88.04mn 自由流通股 (%) 74% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$402.80 ...

研究报告 Research Report 8 Sep 2025 安能物流（开曼） ANE (Cayman) (9956 HK) 2025H1 业绩点评：费控保障盈利韧性增长，中期分红超预期 FY2025H1 Performance Review: Expense Control Supports Profit Growth, Interim Dividend Exceeds Expectations [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$9.66 目标价 HK$11.60 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$11.37bn / US$1.46bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$3.10mn 发行股票数目 1,177mn 自由流通股 (%) 56% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$9.66-HK$6.66 注：现价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][77]. Core Insights - The company reported a core net profit of 10 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, with the contribution from recurring business rising to 60%, an increase of 9 percentage points [10][1]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 94.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [10][1]. - The gross margin improved to 24.0%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year, with the gross margin for development and sales business increasing by 3 percentage points to 15.6% [10][1]. - The company’s financial health remains robust, with a net interest-bearing debt ratio of 39% and an asset-liability ratio of 55% excluding advance receipts [64][1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 94.9 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, and a core net profit of 10 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year [10][1]. - The core net profit margin was 10.5%, a decrease of 3 percentage points, primarily due to a 4 percentage point decline in the core net profit margin of the development and sales business [10][1]. Development and Sales Business - The revenue from the development and sales business was 74.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, while the contracted sales amount was 110.3 billion yuan, down 12% [25][2]. - The company ranked third in industry sales, maintaining a leading position in 15 cities [25][2]. - The land acquisition amount was 44.7 billion yuan, a 75% increase year-on-year, with a land reserve area of 48.95 million square meters as of the end of the first half of 2025 [25][2]. Operational Performance of Shopping Centers - The operating income from the property management business was 12.1 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, with rental income from shopping centers reaching 10.4 billion yuan, up 10% [50][3]. - The overall occupancy rate of shopping centers was 97.3%, remaining stable year-on-year, with a retail sales figure of 110.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase [50][3]. Financial Health - The company’s weighted average financing cost was 2.79%, a decrease of 32 basis points compared to the end of 2024 [64][1]. - It is expected that the recurring business income will cover twice the dividend and interest expenses for the full year of 2025, indicating low debt repayment pressure [64][1]. Profit Forecast - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 24.5 billion yuan and 24.1 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 3.43 yuan and 3.39 yuan [77][1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][57][58] Core Viewpoints - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 24.1% year-on-year increase in Q2 2025, driven by robust order backlog and demand in both automotive and robotics sectors [1][2][57] - The company is positioned as a leader in the laser radar and perception solutions market, focusing on AI-driven robotics technology and aiming to become a global leader in this field [21][24][57] - The company has successfully secured numerous production orders from major automotive manufacturers, including 133 models for mass production, indicating strong market penetration [2][46][57] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.55 billion yuan, with a net profit of -0.51 billion yuan, showing improvement from previous quarters [1][8] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 27.70%, an increase of 13 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting improved product mix and cost management [14][57] - The company forecasts revenues of 24.89 billion yuan, 36.17 billion yuan, and 52.75 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected net profits turning positive by 2026 [4][58] Product Development - The company launched its first product from the all-solid-state digital E platform, E1, in the first half of 2025, marking a significant milestone in digital laser radar technology [2][26][57] - The company has introduced new products in the robotics sector, including the AC1 and AC2, which enhance robotic vision capabilities [30][38][57] - The company has established partnerships with over 20 robotics companies, indicating strong collaboration and market presence in the robotics field [40][57] Market Position - The company has a strong order backlog, with 30 automotive manufacturers and 119 models secured for mass production, including significant international contracts [2][46][57] - The company is recognized for its innovative digital laser radar solutions, which are increasingly being adopted in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and robotics applications [24][57] - The company is actively expanding its presence in the global market, with orders from overseas manufacturers covering key regions such as Japan, North America, and Europe [2][46][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group with a target price of HKD 16.00 [7][5]. Core Insights - Lenovo is expected to benefit from strong demand driven by the global development of hybrid artificial intelligence, leveraging its global layout to mitigate uncertainties [1][4]. - The company has completed a USD 2 billion investment plan in Saudi Arabia, establishing a factory that is anticipated to provide significant growth opportunities in the Middle East [1][4]. - Hybrid AI solutions are becoming a new growth driver across three major business lines, further solidifying Lenovo's global competitive advantage [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2QCY25, Motorola's foldable smartphone market share increased to 28%, a 14 percentage point year-over-year growth, surpassing Samsung to become the largest foldable smartphone manufacturer globally [2]. - The Moto brand's smartphone revenue grew by 14.0% year-over-year, with sales exceeding market growth for eight consecutive quarters, particularly strong in emerging markets [2]. AI PC Segment - Lenovo's global PC market share reached a record high of 24.6% in 2QCY25, with AI PC penetration at approximately 30% and user engagement for AI applications at around 40% [3]. - The increasing maturity of AI technology and user acceptance is expected to drive further penetration of AI applications, enhancing product structure and profitability [3]. Global Supply Chain and Manufacturing - Lenovo's "China + N" global manufacturing strategy demonstrates significant advantages in the current trade environment, with over 30 manufacturing bases worldwide, including 11 owned factories [4]. - The establishment of a production base in Saudi Arabia is expected to align with the country's Vision 2030 strategy, focusing on AI infrastructure and digital economy development [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Lenovo's non-HKFRS net profit for FY26, FY27, and FY28 to be USD 1.69 billion, USD 1.89 billion, and USD 2.12 billion, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 17.6%, 11.3%, and 12.4% [5][10]. - The corresponding non-HKFRS EPS for these years is projected to be USD 0.14, USD 0.15, and USD 0.17 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a core operating profit growth against a backdrop of weak industry demand, demonstrating strong operational resilience [2][7] - With the stabilization of raw milk prices and potential improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics, price competition may ease, allowing leading dairy companies to further restore profitability [2][7] - The company is continuously advancing product innovation, channel refinement, and digital transformation, which will inject momentum for long-term stable development [2][7] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 41.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.046 billion yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year [4] - The decline in performance was primarily due to increased losses from joint ventures, with the company's share of losses from joint ventures reaching 585 million yuan, mainly from Modern Dairy [4][6] - Excluding this impact, the company's core business profitability remained robust, with operating profit recorded at 3.538 billion yuan, an increase of 13.4% year-on-year, and an operating profit margin improvement of 1.5 percentage points to 8.5% [4][6] Product Segment Performance - The liquid milk segment faced significant pressure, with revenue of 32.192 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, while fresh milk performed well with double-digit growth [5] - Ice cream revenue reached 3.879 billion yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year, driven by product innovation and channel expansion, with the Aisnow brand maintaining the top market share in Indonesia [5] - Cheese revenue was 2.374 billion yuan, up 12.3% year-on-year, with the Miaokelan brand holding over 38% market share [5] - Milk powder revenue was 1.676 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year, with the Bella Mi brand focusing on high-end products and expanding into Southeast Asian markets [5] Cost Management and Profitability - The company's gross profit margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 41.7% in H1 2025, mainly due to declining raw milk prices and effective cost control measures [6] - The selling expense ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 27.9%, contributing to the improvement in operating profit margin [6] - The decline in net profit was primarily due to non-operating factors, including the significant losses from joint ventures and the absence of one-time gains from the sale of subsidiaries in the previous year [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market value of approximately $17 billion (134.4 billion HKD) and a target price of 60.2 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and $7.6 for the US stock [5][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to turn profitable in Q4, driven by strong new car sales and effective cost management strategies. Q2 saw a delivery of 72,056 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 71.2%, leading to a revenue of 19 billion RMB, up 9% year-on-year and 58% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The company has introduced new models, such as the L90 and ES8, which are expected to enhance sales and production capacity significantly. The L90 achieved a delivery of 10,575 units in its first full month, and the ES8 is set to launch with a competitive pricing strategy [3][4]. - The company has implemented a new operational mechanism to control costs and improve efficiency, aiming for a non-GAAP net profit in Q4. The R&D expenditure is projected to be controlled at 20 billion RMB per quarter [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2, the company reported a gross margin of 10%, with vehicle sales contributing 16.14 billion RMB and service and other income at 2.87 billion RMB. The non-GAAP net loss was 4.1 billion RMB, with a non-GAAP net loss margin of 22% [1][2]. - For Q3, the company has guided a delivery volume of 87,000 to 91,000 vehicles, with expected revenue between 21.8 billion and 22.9 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 22.5% [2]. Production and Sales Outlook - The company anticipates achieving a monthly average sales volume exceeding 50,000 units in Q4, with a gross margin for complete vehicles projected to reach 16% to 17% [2][3]. - The production capacity for the L90 is expected to reach 15,000 units by October, while the ES8 aims for a capacity of 10,000 units in the same month [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts total sales of approximately 350,000, 530,000, and 660,000 vehicles for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with total revenues projected to reach 93 billion, 136.7 billion, and 170.5 billion RMB [5][6]. - The non-GAAP net profit is expected to improve significantly, with projections of -13.3 billion, -900 million, and 6.2 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][6].