Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is the only publicly listed tobacco entity within the China Tobacco system, tasked with integrating overseas assets. It has shown steady growth in performance since its listing in 2019, with a projected revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% from 2019 to 2024 [6][19]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 869 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [6][7]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position, unique operating model, and significant potential for capital operations and international business expansion [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 10,726 million yuan - 2024: 12,107 million yuan - 2025E: 13,141 million yuan - 2026E: 14,231 million yuan - 2027E: 15,376 million yuan - The year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 44% for 2023, 13% for 2024, and 9% for 2025 [5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 543 million yuan - 2024: 791 million yuan - 2025E: 869 million yuan - 2026E: 998 million yuan - 2027E: 1,131 million yuan - The net profit growth rates are expected to be 62% for 2023, 46% for 2024, and 10% for 2025 [5][6]. Business Model and Market Position - The company operates under a planned business model within the tobacco monopoly system, benefiting from a strong competitive barrier and stable profitability [6][19]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 is projected as follows: - Leaf imports: 63% - Leaf exports: 16% - Cigarette exports: 12% - New tobacco products: 1% - Brazilian business: 8% - The gross profit contributions are 60% from leaf imports, 6% from leaf exports, 20% from cigarette exports, 1% from new tobacco products, and 13% from Brazilian business [6][19]. Capital Operations and International Expansion - The company is positioned as the designated platform for capital market operations and international business expansion for China Tobacco. It has substantial overseas asset reserves, indicating significant potential for global capital operations [6][7]. - The report draws parallels with Japan Tobacco's global expansion strategy, suggesting that the company could achieve similar valuation premiums through effective integration of overseas assets [9][19]. Key Assumptions and Growth Drivers - The company anticipates steady growth in leaf import volumes, with expected year-on-year increases of 2% to 3% from 2025 to 2027 [8]. - Cigarette export volumes are projected to grow by 15% in 2025 and 2026, and by 12% in 2027, driven by the recovery of global travel and market expansion [8]. - New tobacco product exports are expected to see a 15% increase annually from 2025 to 2027, despite a projected decrease in average prices [8].

公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 25,803 | 27,598 | 28,676 | 28,945 | 31,317 | | 同比增长 (%) | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 8.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5,415 | 4,256 | 4,110 | 3,462 | 4,033 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.6% | -21.4% | -3.4% | -15.7% | 16.5% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 4,064 | 3,187 | 3,013 | 2,562 | 2,985 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.3% | -21.6% | -5.5% | -15.0% | 16.5% | | 每股收益（元） | 1.57 | 1.23 | 1.17 | 0.99 | 1.15 | | 毛利率(%) | 48.4% | 48.4% | 49.4% | 49.5% | 49. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.80, indicating a potential upside of 14.6% from the current price of HKD 5.06 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was negatively impacted by the procurement of Domperidone, but there is a noticeable improvement in the neurology segment. The raw material drug business continues to face slight pressure. It is anticipated that the impact of Domperidone procurement will stabilize entering 2025, and new product launches will drive revenue recovery [2][6]. - The current forward P/E ratio is 11 times, with an expected profit CAGR of 11% from 2024 to 2027, suggesting that the valuation is reasonable with limited upside potential [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve positive revenue growth in 2025, driven by stable inventory levels of Domperidone, the rapid market penetration of new products, and the inclusion of certain drugs in medical insurance [6][11]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 29,600 million, a decrease of 1.0% from previous forecasts. The gross profit is expected to be RMB 20,868 million, down 3.8% from prior estimates. The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 4,754 million, reflecting a 4.4% reduction [5][11]. - The gross margin is expected to be 70.5% for 2025, down from 72.6% previously, indicating a slight decline in profitability [5][11]. Performance Metrics - The company’s stock price has shown a year-to-date increase of 5.86%, with a 52-week high of HKD 7.12 and a low of HKD 4.34 [5][11]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 214.03 million shares, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 58,227.19 million [5][11]. Pipeline and Product Development - The company is advancing its pipeline with seven new products expected to launch in 2025, including significant drugs that are anticipated to gain regulatory approval in the U.S. [6][11]. - The most notable pipeline product, EGFR ADC, is undergoing simultaneous registration studies in China and the U.S., indicating a strong commitment to expanding its product offerings [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 36.90 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the study company is experiencing pressure in its study abroad business while maintaining stable performance in K12 education. The revenue for non-selective business is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year, with an adjusted operating profit margin declining by approximately 2.5 percentage points due to slower growth in study abroad-related services and investments in cultural tourism [2][8]. - The company plans to allocate more resources to youth study abroad services, and with cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures taking effect, there is still potential for long-term profit margin improvement [2][8]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue projections for FY25E have been slightly adjusted to USD 4,902 million, a decrease of 0.9% from previous estimates. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is projected at USD 5,670 million and USD 6,420 million, reflecting decreases of 2.2% and 3.9% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY25E is forecasted at USD 503 million, with an operating profit margin of 10.3%. For FY26E and FY27E, the adjusted operating profit is expected to be USD 656 million and USD 771 million, with margins of 11.6% and 12.0% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at USD 474 million, with a net profit margin of 9.7%. For FY26E and FY27E, net profit is expected to be USD 519 million and USD 620 million, with margins of 9.2% and 9.7% respectively [3][13]. Revenue Breakdown - The report provides a detailed breakdown of revenue sources, indicating that the study abroad consulting and preparation services are expected to generate USD 1,182 million in FY25E, while high school education is projected at USD 1,295 million. New business segments are expected to contribute USD 1,268 million [3][8][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Hai Jiaya Medical (6078 HK), with a target price of HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from the current closing price of HKD 13.82 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be under pressure due to changes in the medical insurance payment environment, but long-term growth visibility remains significant. It is anticipated that by 2025, the company will recover with a profit growth rate exceeding 20% as the impact of medical insurance cost control normalizes and new hospital integrations are completed [3][7]. - The report highlights that while the company's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 9%, it falls short of expectations, with a notable decline of 11% in the second half of 2024. The oncology segment remains stable, contributing 44% to revenue, while outpatient services show resilience with a 21% increase in annual revenue [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing expansion through new hospitals and acquisitions, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth in the future. The company is also exploring new business avenues in response to the changing medical insurance landscape, including internet hospitals and self-paid services related to innovative drugs [7][8]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downward by 16-21% and 21-27%, respectively, reflecting the short-term impact of medical insurance cost control on the company's performance [6][7]. - The updated financial projections for 2025 estimate revenue at RMB 4,987 million, a decrease of 15.8% from previous estimates, with a net profit forecast of RMB 743 million, down 20.6% [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5] Core Insights - The company achieved a stable revenue growth of 4.8% year-on-year, reaching RMB 24.76 billion in 2024, while the net profit attributable to shareholders slightly decreased by 1.7% to RMB 1.09 billion [1][4] - The clean energy segment saw significant growth, with revenues increasing by 15.3% to RMB 17.18 billion, driven by rising demand for LNG and industrial gases due to environmental policies [2][3] - The hydrogen energy business reported a revenue increase of 21.7% to RMB 0.85 billion, and the shipbuilding segment secured over RMB 10 billion in new orders [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 24.76 billion, with a gross margin of 14.4%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The net profit margin was 4.6%, reflecting a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Order Book and Growth - The company signed new orders totaling RMB 27.49 billion in 2024, marking a historical high, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [2] - The backlog of orders at the end of 2024 reached RMB 28.3 billion, up 23.8% from the previous year [2] Business Segments - The clean energy segment's revenue growth was primarily due to favorable policies and increased demand, while the chemical environment segment experienced a decline of 29.4% [2] - The liquid food segment achieved a revenue increase of 3.7% to RMB 4.45 billion, benefiting from project completions [2] Future Projections - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025 and 2026, with estimates of RMB 1.29 billion and RMB 1.51 billion respectively, but anticipates a recovery in 2027 with a projected net profit of RMB 1.75 billion [4][9]

纺织服饰/服装家纺 2024 年跑步驱动增长，巩固基础，蓄力长期 ——港股公司信息更新报告 2025 年 03 月 31 日 《2024Q1 流水符合预期，零售折扣低 单改善—港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.4.25 | 吕明（分析师） | 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师） | | --- | --- | | lvming@kysec.cn | zhoujiale@kysec.cn zhangshuangning@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030002 | 证书编号：S0790522030002 证书编号：S0790524070006 | |  2024 | 年跑步驱动增长，巩固基础，务实发展，维持"买入"评级 | 2024 年公司实现营收 286.76 亿元(同比+3.9%，下同)，归母净利润 30.13 亿元 (-5.5%)，净利率 10.5%（-1.0pct），符合预期，派息率从 45%提至 50%。考虑加 盟渠道健康发展短期影响发货增速以及加大对运动资源的费用投入，我们下调 2025-2026 年并新增 2027 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company has achieved significant revenue growth and profit improvement, driven by its strong brand and market position in the local delivery sector [7][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 15.746 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27%, and a net profit of 132 million RMB, which is a 161.8% increase year-on-year [4][10]. - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 19.613 billion RMB, 23.502 billion RMB, and 27.502 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 25%, 20%, and 17% respectively [10]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In the second half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.868 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%, and a net profit of 70 million RMB, up 233.3% year-on-year [4][5]. Business Segments - The company's To B (business-to-business) segment saw a revenue increase of 36% in H2 2024, driven by new key account orders and a 39% increase in active merchants [5]. - The To C (business-to-consumer) segment experienced a slower growth rate of 6% in H2 2024 compared to 20% in H1 2024 [5]. Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 6.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved scale network effects [6]. - The adjusted net profit margin for the year was 0.9%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point increase year-on-year [6]. Future Projections - The report projects a significant increase in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected figures of 208 million RMB, 320 million RMB, and 449 million RMB, corresponding to growth rates of 57%, 54%, and 40% respectively [10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth driven by the company's strong market position and operational efficiencies [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 9.42 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.8%. Product revenue reached 8.23 billion RMB, up 43.6% year-on-year. The company also reported its first positive Non-IFRS profit of 330 million RMB and an EBITDA of 410 million RMB, with IFRS losses narrowing by 90.8% [1]. - The company has seen a decrease in various expense ratios, with sales expenses at 4.347 billion RMB (46.14% of revenue, down 3.83 percentage points), R&D expenses at 2.681 billion RMB (28.45%, down 7.45 percentage points), and administrative expenses at 738 million RMB (7.83%, down 4.25 percentage points). This reduction in expense ratios is attributed to significant revenue growth [2]. - The company is expected to launch six new drugs in 2025, with one drug entering the medical insurance system. Several products are nearing commercialization, which will serve as a significant growth driver. Recently, five new products were approved for market, including drugs targeting various cancers and conditions [3]. - The company has promising products in the pipeline, particularly in the weight loss sector with the drug Masitide, which is expected to yield data from ongoing studies by the end of 2025. In oncology, early data from several products have shown strong potential, with international clinical trials underway [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised upwards, with expected revenues of 11.518 billion RMB and 14.721 billion RMB, respectively. Net profit estimates for the same period have also been increased to 515 million RMB and 1.830 billion RMB. The revenue for 2027 is projected to reach 20.020 billion RMB, with net profit expected at 3.109 billion RMB [5].

2025 年 3 月 31 日 公司研究 24 年表现平稳，25 年将加大投入、促品牌力向上 ——李宁（2331.HK）2024 年业绩点评 买入（维持） 当前价：17.16 元港币 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 25.85 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 443.55 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 12.56/24.60 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 109.8% | 股价相对走势 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 李宁 恒生指数 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | ...