Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6][22] Core Viewpoints - Meituan's core competitiveness in the food delivery sector remains strong, with no significant competitors observed in the short term. The entry of new players may provide good buying opportunities for the market [6][22] - The report highlights DoorDash's strong growth and AI initiatives, which could serve as a reference for Meituan's own AI strategies [4][10] - The impact of JD's entry into the food delivery market is expected to be limited, as JD's focus is on high-quality dining merchants, which may not significantly disrupt Meituan's market position [5][21] Summary by Sections Company Overview - DoorDash has become the absolute leader in the U.S. food delivery market, achieving a market share of 63% as of November 2024, with revenues of $10.72 billion in 2024, representing a 24% year-on-year growth [4][8][7] - In Q4 2024, DoorDash reported revenues of $2.87 billion, a 25% increase year-on-year, and a GAAP net profit of $141 million, compared to a loss of $154 million in the same period last year [8][4] AI Initiatives - DoorDash has been actively exploring AI applications, including an AI voice ordering service launched in August 2023, which enhances restaurant operational efficiency and sales [10][13] - The introduction of AI tools like DashAI and SafeChat+ aims to optimize user experience and improve communication safety between customers and delivery personnel [14][10] Competitive Landscape - JD's entry into the food delivery market is characterized by a focus on high-end dining merchants, which may not significantly impact Meituan's existing customer base and market share [5][21] - The report suggests that JD's food delivery service is more of an auxiliary feature within its instant retail strategy, and its impact on Meituan is expected to be limited in the current stable market environment [21][5] Financial Projections - The revenue forecasts for Meituan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 338.2 billion, 391.4 billion, and 445.7 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 43 billion, 52.2 billion, and 58.5 billion yuan [6][22] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 23, 19, and 17 times for the respective years [6][22]

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·软件服务(HS) 九方智投控股（09636.HK） 基本面夯实乘 A 股东风，AI 赋能拓成长蓝海 2025 年 02 月 19 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 1,850 | 1,965 | 2,317 | 3,394 | 3,992 | | 同比（%） | 27.43% | 6.23% | 17.90% | 46.48% | 17.62% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 461 | 191 | 270 | 961 | 1,263 | | 同比（%） | 98.23% | -58.59% | 41.66% | 255.77% | 31.41% | | EPS-最新摊薄(港元/股) | 1.12 | 0.46 | 0.65 | 2.33 | 3.06 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 24.45 | 59.04 | 41.68 | 11.72 | 8.92 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 57.74 HKD [4][10][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share of 0.84, 1.06, and 1.37 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts due to the positive industry outlook and the company's strategic initiatives [4][10]. - The automotive segment has shown strong performance with monthly deliveries exceeding 20,000 units, maintaining a long delivery cycle of 6-7 months [9][10]. - The integration of the DeepSeek large model into the company's operating system enhances its AI capabilities, allowing for various applications such as code writing and logical reasoning [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 362,463 million CNY, 406,553 million CNY, and 475,075 million CNY respectively, indicating a growth rate of 34%, 12%, and 17% [6][10]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 22,944 million CNY, 29,430 million CNY, and 38,863 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with significant growth rates of 15%, 28%, and 32% [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 20,996 million CNY, 26,528 million CNY, and 34,418 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 20%, 26%, and 30% [6][10]. - The gross margin is projected to be 21.0%, 21.8%, and 22.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, while the net margin is expected to be 5.8%, 6.5%, and 7.2% [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10][7] Core Insights - The company is projected to have earnings per share of 0.84, 1.06, and 1.37 RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with adjustments made to revenue and gross margin forecasts [4][10] - The target price is set at 57.74 HKD based on a 39x PE valuation for comparable companies in 2026 [4][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is forecasted to be 362,463 in 2024, 406,553 in 2025, and 475,075 in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 34%, 12%, and 17% respectively [6] - Operating profit is expected to rise significantly from 20,009 million RMB in 2023 to 38,863 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 610%, 15%, 28%, and 32% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 17,475 million RMB in 2023 to 34,418 million RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 606%, 20%, 26%, and 30% [6] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 21.0% to 22.7% from 2024 to 2026 [6] Market Position and Product Performance - The company maintained its position as the third-largest smartphone vendor globally, with a market share of 13% in Q4 2024 and an annual shipment of approximately 169 million units [9] - The company has seen significant growth in its AIoT product categories, with notable increases in sales for various smart home appliances [9] - The automotive segment has delivered over 160,000 vehicles, maintaining a monthly delivery rate of over 20,000 units [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mao Geping [6] Core Insights - Mao Geping is a rare high-end domestic beauty brand that leverages the unique "light and shadow aesthetics" concept to develop makeup and skincare products, creating a competitive moat through offline experiential makeup services. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 893 million, 1.172 billion, and 1.467 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.82, 2.39, and 2.99 CNY, leading to a PE ratio of 37.4, 28.5, and 22.7 times [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Mao Geping is a high-end domestic beauty brand with over 20 years of industry experience, evolving through three stages: initial brand creation (2000-2007), market deepening (2008-2018), and rapid expansion (2019-present) [23] - The company has established a strong brand presence and diversified its product offerings, including makeup, skincare, and professional training services [23][24] Financial Performance - The company has shown consistent high double-digit growth in revenue and profit, with 2022-2024H1 revenues of 1.829 billion, 2.886 billion, and 1.972 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 57.8%, and 41.0% respectively. Net profits for the same period were 338 million, 639 million, and 492 million CNY, with growth rates of 6.4%, 88.0%, and 41.0% [31] - The gross margin has remained high, averaging around 84.8% from 2022 to 2024H1, while the net margin has improved, reaching 25.0% in 2024H1 [31][36] Market Growth Potential - The Chinese makeup market is still developing, with a significant gap compared to overseas markets. The market size for makeup in China was approximately 5,798 billion CNY in 2023, with makeup accounting for only about 20.1% of the beauty market [46] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the high-end makeup segment, as domestic brands like Mao Geping are positioned to capture market share amid rising consumer interest in local products [46][49] Competitive Advantages - Mao Geping's unique business model combines online and offline channels, with a strong focus on high-end department store sales and a growing online presence. The company has established a solid customer base through its experiential services and high-quality products [7][41] - The brand's core strengths include its professional IP, aesthetic design, and high-end channel development, which create a competitive barrier in the market [7][8]

此港股通报告之英文版本于 2025 年 2 月 17 日 中午 12 时 35 分由华兴证券(香港)发 布。中文版由华兴证券的王国晗（证券分析师登记编号: S1680524080001）审核。如果 您想进一步讨论本报告所述观点，请与您在华兴证券的销售代表联系。 预计本季度 IoT 和整体盈利强劲：我们预测小米 4Q24 收入首次超过 1,000 亿人民币大关 ，达到 1,050 亿元，同比提升 40%。分板块来看，我们根据 Canalys 数据（4,270 万部出 货）预测智能手机收入为 490 亿元人民币，且因高端机型贡献提升，单价同比增长 6%至 人民币 1,153 元。IoT 方面，我们预测总收入同比增长 46%至 297 亿元人民币，受益于国 内刺激政策，尤其是家电产品。我们预测互联网服务在强劲广告业务势能下收入同比提升 13%至 89 亿元人民币，并预测季度电车交付量为 7 万台、收入为 163 亿元人民币。我们 预测 4Q24 整体综合毛利率环比提升 20 个基点至 20.6%，并预计随着小米持续扩大规模， 电车毛利率将接近 20%。利润层面，我们预测小米的经调整净利润为 70 亿元人民币，涵 盖 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mao Geping [6] Core Insights - Mao Geping is a rare high-end domestic beauty brand that leverages the unique "light and shadow aesthetics" concept developed by its founder to create makeup and skincare products, establishing a competitive moat through offline experiential makeup services. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 0.893 billion, 1.172 billion, and 1.467 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.82, 2.39, and 2.99 CNY, leading to a PE ratio of 37.4, 28.5, and 22.7 times [6] Company Overview - Mao Geping is positioned as a high-end domestic beauty brand with over 20 years of industry experience, evolving through three stages: initial brand creation (2000-2007), market deepening (2008-2018), and rapid expansion (2019-present) [24] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the Mao family holding a significant portion of shares, ensuring stability and continuity in management [27][30] Financial Performance - The company has shown consistent high double-digit growth in revenue and profit, with 2022-2024H1 revenues of 1.829 billion, 2.886 billion, and 1.972 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 57.8%, and 41.0% respectively. The net profits for the same period were 0.338 billion, 0.639 billion, and 0.492 billion CNY, with growth rates of 6.4%, 88.0%, and 41.0% [32] - The gross margin has remained high, with figures of 83.4%, 83.8%, 84.8%, and 84.8% from 2021 to 2024H1, indicating strong profitability [36] Market Growth Potential - The Chinese makeup market is still developing, with a significant gap compared to overseas markets. The domestic market size was approximately 579.8 billion CNY in 2023, with makeup accounting for only about 20.1% [49] - The report highlights the high barriers and stickiness of the facial makeup segment, suggesting that it is easier to defend than to penetrate [49] Competitive Advantages - Mao Geping's unique business model combines online and offline channels, supported by a strong founder IP and a well-established aesthetic design philosophy. The brand's focus on high-end retail channels and a robust membership base enhances its competitive edge [7][8] - The company has a diversified product line, with makeup contributing 55.1% and skincare 22.8% to total revenue in 2024H1, indicating a balanced growth strategy [24][26]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, indicating a favorable outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the communication backup lead-acid battery market, with a diverse product range and significant market share in various downstream sectors [4][6]. - The company plans to split and list in the US, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and unlock value for both the parent and the spun-off company [2]. - The company has established strategic partnerships, including one with Amazon, to meet the growing demand for backup batteries in data centers, particularly driven by AI [9]. Company Overview - The company was founded in 1999 and operates over 80 factories and sales offices globally, employing around 14,000 people [4]. - It offers more than 3,000 battery models, with revenue composition as follows: backup batteries (42%), start-stop batteries (38%), power batteries (9%), and lead recycling (10%) as of mid-2024 [4]. - Geographically, the revenue distribution is 58% from China, 15% from EMEA, 18% from the Americas, and 8.8% from the Asia-Pacific region (excluding mainland China) [4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.543 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, with a gross profit of 1.062 billion yuan, up 29.8% [17]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 245 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.6% [17]. - The start-stop battery business saw a remarkable revenue growth of 93.4%, with an organic growth rate of 57.1% [17]. Market Position - The company holds a significant position in the lead-acid battery market, ranking first in the shipment volume of communication base station storage batteries in China as of 2022 [12]. - The company is actively expanding its lithium battery segment, which currently accounts for less than 10% of total revenue, indicating substantial growth potential [11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to enhance its market share in the aftermarket for start-stop batteries, targeting a shift from a current ratio of 3:1 in favor of OEMs to an industry average of 1:3 [11]. - It is also exploring new battery technologies, including sodium batteries, vanadium flow batteries, and lithium-sulfur batteries, to align with market trends [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6]. Core Views - Xiaomi Group's smartphone shipments reached 42.7 million units in Q4 2024, marking a 4.8% year-on-year increase, with a global market share of 12.9%, positioning it among the top three manufacturers [1]. - In the Chinese market, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments grew by 28.4% year-on-year, driven by the success of the Xiaomi 15 series and local subsidies for high-end devices [1]. - The IoT business is expected to benefit from the 2024 appliance replacement subsidy policy, leading to significant revenue growth [2]. - The automotive segment delivered 135,000 units in 2024, with a target of 300,000 units for 2025, indicating strong growth potential [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at CNY 362.9 billion, CNY 456.2 billion, and CNY 596.8 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 26%, and 31% respectively [3][11]. - Adjusted net profit for the consumer electronics segment is forecasted to be CNY 32.1 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 10% [3][11]. - The automotive segment is expected to show a turnaround with an adjusted net profit of CNY 0.9 billion by 2026 [3][11]. - The report sets a target price of HKD 54 for Xiaomi Group based on a 20x P/E ratio for the consumer electronics business and a 2x P/S ratio for the automotive segment [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" with a target price not specified [3][2]. Core Viewpoints - TCL Electronics is expected to achieve an adjusted net profit of HKD 1.3 to 1.7 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 62% to 112%, likely exceeding the equity incentive target of 65% growth [1]. - The company leads global TV shipments with a projected total of 29 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with domestic shipments up 5.8% and overseas shipments up 17.6% [1]. - The Mini LED segment is expected to see nearly a twofold increase in global shipments in 2024, benefiting from subsidy policies and advancements in high-end product development [1]. - TCL's diverse business segments, including TV, photovoltaic, and full-category marketing, are contributing to robust performance, with a focus on digital transformation and cost control to enhance operational efficiency [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 is between HKD 1.3 billion and HKD 1.7 billion, with significant growth anticipated in the following years: HKD 1.52 billion in 2025 and HKD 1.89 billion in 2026 [2]. - The company’s revenue from TV business has reached a historical high, supported by rapid growth in innovative business segments [1]. Market Position - TCL Electronics is recognized as a leading player in the global television industry, with a steady expansion of market share driven by high-end product offerings and global operational capabilities [2]. Business Strategy - The company is actively enhancing its operational capabilities through digital transformation and efficiency measures, including strict cost control and improved material turnover [1].