证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 同程旅行（00780.HK） 2025Q1 业绩公告点评：核心业务高速增长， 利润率显著提升 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,896 | 17,341 | 19,805 | 22,486 | 25,418 | | 同比(%) | 80.67 | 45.77 | 14.21 | 13.54 | 13.04 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,554 | 1,974 | 2,504 | 3,006 | 3,516 | | 同比(%) | 1,164.41 | 27.04 | 26.80 | 20.05 | 16.99 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 1.51 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.28 | 22.26 | 17.56 | 14.62 | 12.50 | [T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 47.00 [8] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue increase of 18.9% to RMB 4.43 billion, exceeding previous guidance of 15-18%, driven by domestic channel upgrades and inventory optimization [1] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 4.8% to RMB 590 million due to rapid expansion of direct stores and increased financial expenses [1] - The company's strategy has shifted from aggressive expansion to refined operations, focusing on enhancing profitability and supporting global business expansion [1][4] Revenue Performance - Domestic revenue for Miniso increased by 9.1%, with offline and online sales growing by 7.3% and 32.7% respectively [2] - Overseas revenue grew by 30.3%, with 95 new stores opened during the quarter, particularly in North America [2] - TopToy's revenue surged by 58.9% to RMB 340 million, with self-developed products accounting for over 40% of sales [2] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2%, although it decreased by 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal effects [3] - Selling and administrative expense ratios increased by 4.4 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points to 23.1% and 5.5% respectively, primarily due to significant investments in direct stores [3] - Adjusted net profit margin fell by 3.3 percentage points to 13.3% [3] Strategic Focus - The company is pursuing a "high-quality growth" strategy, emphasizing same-store sales improvement and store competitiveness through upgrades and new openings [4] - In the overseas market, the focus is on localization and efficiency, with nearly 40% of U.S. procurement sourced locally to mitigate tariff risks [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been reduced by 7.1%, 9.0%, and 9.0% to RMB 2.99 billion, RMB 3.73 billion, and RMB 4.57 billion respectively [5] - The target price is based on a 2025 PE ratio of 18x, reflecting increased uncertainty in overseas expansion [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a high-end gold jewelry brand that combines luxury attributes with investment value, targeting high-net-worth individuals. The contribution of customers spending over 1 million yuan annually has increased from 8.5% in 2021 to 15.9% in 2023 [9][35]. - The company's revenue and profit are expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 185.7 billion yuan in 2025, 272.9 billion yuan in 2026, and 366.9 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 118%, 47%, and 34% respectively [19]. - The company benefits from a unique craftsmanship that creates a significant premium on its products, with some items showing a price premium of 38% to 114% compared to competitors [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Is the company a luxury brand? - The company successfully blends luxury and investment attributes, appealing to high-net-worth customers through unique cultural experiences and high-quality craftsmanship [9][22]. 2. How does gold price affect it? - The company benefits from a fixed-price model that allows it to capitalize on rising gold prices, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% in gold prices from 2020 to 2024, while its core products have seen lower price increases, enhancing perceived value [10][43]. 3. Is discounting a problem? - The company faces pricing risks from secondary market discounts, with recovery rates of 70%-80% for its products. However, it maintains brand premium through limited supply and complex craftsmanship [11][66]. 4. What is the store expansion potential? - The company has significant room for growth in both domestic and international markets, with only 37 stores in China compared to an average of 49 for international luxury brands. There are also opportunities in high-end shopping malls and overseas markets like Singapore [12][67]. 5. Who are the competitors? - The competitive landscape includes high-end custom brands and mass-market players, with varying pricing strategies and market shares [13]. 6. What is the craftsmanship premium? - The company's products exhibit a notable craftsmanship premium, with some items achieving a price premium of up to 114% compared to competitors [14]. 7. Are there barriers to craftsmanship? - The company utilizes traditional techniques and complex processes that create significant barriers to entry, making it difficult for competitors to replicate its products [15]. 8. What is the profit margin trend? - The company has improved its operational efficiency, leading to a projected net profit margin of 17% in 2024, driven by reduced customer acquisition costs and enhanced store performance [17]. 9. What is the ceiling for single-store operations? - The average revenue per store is expected to increase significantly, with projections of 4 billion yuan in 2025 and 6 billion yuan by 2027, driven by store expansion and product pricing strategies [18]. 10. How to value the company? - The company is valued based on a premium compared to international luxury brands, with a target market capitalization of 160.8 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting its growth potential and unique market positioning [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has launched several products to celebrate its 15th anniversary, including the Xiaomi 15S Pro, Xiaomi Pad 7 Ultra, and Xiaomi Watch S4, all featuring the self-developed SoC chip, Xuanjie O1 [1][2]. - The Xuanjie O1 chip, built on a second-generation 3nm process, is positioned to compete with Apple's A18 Pro in terms of performance and energy efficiency [2]. - The company plans to invest an additional 200 billion yuan in R&D over the next five years [1]. - The SUV YU7 was also unveiled, with a maximum range of 835 km and equipped with a 96.3 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery, expected to launch in July [2]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are approximately 33.75 billion yuan, 42.60 billion yuan, and 55.06 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 365.91 billion yuan, 483.38 billion yuan, 595.47 billion yuan, and 726.59 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.04%, 32.11%, 23.19%, and 22.02% [5][11]. - The adjusted EPS for the same years is expected to be 1.09 yuan, 1.30 yuan, 1.64 yuan, and 2.12 yuan [5][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end product development, aiming to enhance the value of its consumer electronics [2]. - The automotive business is expected to contribute significantly to the company's growth, with a delivery target of 350,000 vehicles for the year [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in profit margins, with a focus on international expansion performance [3][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.4 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 13%, and an adjusted net profit of 790 million yuan, up 41% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 18%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-over-year [5][6]. Financial Performance - The core online travel platform generated revenue of 3.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 18%, with an operating profit margin of 29.2%, up 6.6 percentage points year-over-year [6]. - Revenue from transportation ticketing reached 2 billion yuan, up 15% year-over-year, benefiting from increased demand and enhanced value-added services [6]. - Accommodation bookings generated 1.2 billion yuan in revenue, a 23% year-over-year increase, with international hotel night volume growing over 50% [6]. - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure, generating 590 million yuan, down 11.8% year-over-year, due to safety issues in Southeast Asia [6]. User Metrics - The average monthly paying user count reached 46.5 million, a 9.2% year-over-year increase, with annual paying users totaling 247 million, up 7.8% year-over-year [6]. - Over 87% of registered users reside in non-first-tier cities in China, with 68% of new paying users from these areas, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [6]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 22.1 billion, and 24.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.7 billion, 3.0 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan [8]. - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 51.4 billion yuan, with a target price of 24 HKD per share [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.377 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and an adjusted net profit of 788 million yuan, up 41.1% year-on-year [1]. - The core OTA revenue reached 3.792 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a robust year-on-year growth of 18.4% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 68.8%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by revenue growth and scale effects [3]. - The company announced an agreement to acquire 100% of the shares of Wanda Hotel Management (Hong Kong) on April 17, 2025, which is expected to enhance its high-end hotel management capabilities [3]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - The company's revenue from accommodation bookings in Q1 2025 was 1.19 billion yuan, up 23.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in take rate and cross-selling rates [2]. - Traffic ticket revenue reached 2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, supported by the expansion of international ticket sales [2]. - Other business revenue was 603 million yuan, reflecting a 20.0% year-on-year growth, driven by hotel management and advertising services [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 18.0%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 3.393 billion yuan, 4.060 billion yuan, and 4.647 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to adjusted P/E ratios of 13, 11, and 10 for the years 2025 to 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BaTeLab is reiterated as "Buy" with a target price maintained at HK$69.5, indicating a potential upside of 37.1% from the current price of HK$50.70 [2][4]. Core Insights - BaTeLab successfully raised HK$120 million through a private placement, which will be used to enhance upstream manufacturing capabilities and for general operational funding. This is crucial for the company's future expansion in the industrial-grade analog IC market [1][2]. - The company is expected to experience robust revenue growth, with projected growth rates of 27%-33% from 2025 to 2027, alongside high profitability with expected gross margins of 53%-54% during the same period [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 464 million in FY23A to RMB 770 million in FY25E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33% [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 109.2 million in FY23A to RMB 216.7 million in FY25E, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.1% [3][11]. - The company's P/E ratio is currently at 12.9x for FY25E, which is significantly lower than the average of 38x for domestic peers, indicating an attractive valuation [2][10]. Shareholder Structure - The major shareholders include Li Zhen with 53.5% and Zhang Guangping with 39.5% of the shares [5]. Market Performance - Over the past month, BaTeLab's stock has shown a slight increase of 0.2%, while over three months, it has risen by 59.4% [6]. Valuation Metrics - The company is trading at a P/B ratio of 0.43, which is appealing compared to the industry average [2]. - The projected EPS for FY25E is RMB 3.61, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12.9x, indicating strong earnings potential [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$24.00, representing a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HK$20.50 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue of RMB 4.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, exceeding both the report's and Bloomberg's expectations by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 788 million, up 41% year-on-year, also surpassing forecasts [1][2]. - The core OTA business revenue was RMB 3.8 billion, accounting for 86.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 18.4%, driven by strong performance in transportation ticketing and other services [2]. - The report anticipates stable growth in profits for the full year, with a projected 25% increase in operating profit and an 18% rise in non-GAAP net profit for the core OTA business in 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Total revenue was RMB 4.4 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit at RMB 788 million, reflecting a 41% growth [1]. - The core OTA business saw revenue of RMB 3.8 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year, driven by growth in transportation ticketing and accommodation services [2]. Q2 2025 Outlook - For Q2 2025, total revenue is expected to reach RMB 4.7 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 13% [3]. - The report notes that while core OTA revenue growth may slow due to seasonal factors, a recovery is anticipated in the second half of the year [3]. Profitability and Margins - The overall operating margin improved to 18.7% in Q1 2025, up from 11.8% in Q1 2024, with the core OTA business margin expanding to 29.2% [4]. - The report predicts continued expansion of the core OTA's non-GAAP operating margin to 25.5% in Q2 2025, supported by healthy revenue growth and optimized sales and marketing expenses [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 2%, while non-GAAP net profit expectations remain largely unchanged [1][12]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of RMB 19.5 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on steady progress and active advancement, with expectations for revenue growth and profit improvement through various strategic initiatives [8] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with the company successfully incubating new brands and expanding its store network [8] - The company is enhancing its operational model through a bottom-up site selection mechanism and strict control over franchisee standards [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41,622 million RMB in 2023 to 47,244 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,499 million RMB in 2023 to 5,269 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.81 RMB in 2023 to 0.95 RMB in 2027 [1] Operational Strategies - The company is implementing a dual management model and exclusive customer manager system to optimize its management practices [8] - A strict selection mechanism for franchisees is in place, ensuring quality and operational capability [8] - Digital upgrades and supply chain optimization are being pursued through the use of big data and AI technologies [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on steady progress and active advancement, with expectations for revenue and profit growth driven by operational optimizations and new brand incubations [8] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with 11 new restaurant brands and 74 new stores established by the end of 2024, indicating a potential second growth curve for the company [8] - The company is implementing a strict selection mechanism for franchisees to ensure quality and service standards, with 13 franchise stores already operational by the end of 2024 [8] - Digital upgrades and supply chain optimizations are being pursued through AI technology and data analysis, enhancing customer satisfaction and operational efficiency [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41,622 million RMB in 2023 to 47,244 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,499 million RMB in 2023 to 5,269 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.81 RMB in 2023 to 0.95 RMB in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 17.21 to 14.70 over the same period [1]